2025 MLB Draft Thread

[CubinNY]

It's easy to bag on Tom's post, but one point I'd like more information on: when has underslotting worked out for the Cubs or any other team? I honestly don't know

[JBears79]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

It's easy to bag on Tom's post, but one point I'd like more information on: when has underslotting worked out for the Cubs or any other team? I honestly don't know

The Astros when they took Correa, maybe? I know they took Correa and McCullers that draft with their first pick. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 hours ago, JBears79 said:

The Astros when they took Correa, maybe? I know they took Correa and McCullers that draft with their first pick. 

Yeah, that's a good one. It's that or the 2014 Cubs for best one unless I'm missing something. Cubs 2014: Schwarber underslot to get Cease and Steele.

I wonder if you would count the 2019 Orioles. They went underslot by $400k on Adley Ruschtman and used the savings on Gunnar Henderson but it was only $400k.

2023 Tigers looking good: Went under slot by $500-$600k on Max Clark and used that savings Kevin McGonigle. Both are top 10 or, at worst, top 20 prospects.

But both the 2019 Orioles and 2023 Tigers benefited more from really high bonus pools in an era where 1.1 rarely if ever signs for full slot (only Torkelson has signed for full slot in the 2020s). Neither Torkelson nor Clark were drafted higher than anticipated.

2022 Cubs with Horton and Ferris seems solid right no.

The Pirates really screwed up 2021 - took Henry Davis at 1.1 with approximately the same bonus as Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawler but did nail the Bubba Chandler pick with the Davis savings.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CubinNY]

Law on the overall class from his latest article. 
 

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It’s a weak class at the very top; I don’t think anyone on this list would have cracked the top five in 2023, or have been in consideration at 1-1 last year, for example. There is quite a bit of depth further down the list, however, especially in high school shortstops, college outfielders, and left-handed pitching at both levels. It’s a good year to go under slot with your first pick and spread some money around, and a good year to have an extra pick or two. I expect a lot of rumors of deals up top before we get to the draft, and then for most teams to flee to the safety of college players when they actually have to put something on the table. Call it cynical if you wish; I call it the wisdom of experience.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I’m not giving up hope he might fall to the Cubs even if it’s a longshot:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

You mean he might fall to the Cubs due to injury?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 5/22/2025 at 12:45 PM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

And the hit was off Kade Anderson:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Regular Show]

 

Edited May 26, 2025 by Regular Show

[Regular Show]

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Notably, the Southeastern Conference is dominating the NCAA Tournament field. Not only does the conference have six of the eight national seeds, including each of the top four, but it also is sending a record 13 teams to the tourney -- thanks in part to Oklahoma and Texas growing the conference to 16 teams.

 

Those 13 SEC teams have accounted for nearly half (31) of the 63 players ranked on the Draft Top 150. Reigning champion Tennessee has by far the most Draft prospects in the field with eight, two of whom (southpaw Liam Doyle and second baseman Gavin Kilen) rank in the top 20. Fellow SEC team Arkansas is tied with Florida State for the second-most ranked prospects with five, while Louisiana State sits fourth (four).

Lots of interesting names on the list and not just at the top of the list. I'm very intrigued by RHP AJ Russell (ranked #55) and some prospect analysts think he could be this year's version of Cade Horton. He missed most of his sophomore year recovering from internal brace surgery. Hasn't thrown very much, but has a lot of interesting metrics, a low release point and good stuff that could get even better after getting drafted. I doubt the Cubs take him at #17, but he probably won't be available at their next pick in the 2nd round. 

^This clip is from him pitching in 2024. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

New Kiley McDaniel mock: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45344216/2025-mlb-mock-draft-kiley-mcdaniel-first-pick-washington-nationals

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17. Chicago Cubs

Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas

Top 150 rank: 21

Wood is a hot name because of his huge stuff, but he has started only 10 games in college. Some scouts think that if he can make a number of starts for Arkansas this postseason, he could have a rise like Cade Horton, who went No. 7 in 2022 out of Oklahoma and is now in the big leagues for the Cubs. This projection is a little speculative, but I don't think Wood would get out of the 20s if the draft were held today. He is a more refined version of another Arkansas pitcher the Cubs took in the second round in 2023, Jaxon Wiggins.

Aloy went 13.

Kiley also had this to say about Tate Southisene, who he mocked 21st to Houston:

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Tate's brother Ty got $1 million from the Cubs in the fourth round last year and the Cubs are tied to Tate this spring, though Houston is as well.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pipeline updated their draft top 200 prospects: https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/draft

[CaliforniaRaisin]

New Pipeline mock: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/mlb-pipeline-2025-mock-draft-may-29?t=mlb-draft-coverage

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17. Cubs: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (No. 14)
Bremner entered the year rivaling Arnold as the best college arm available, got knocked around early in the first half of the college season, then posted double-digit strikeouts in six of his final seven outings. His name doesn't get mentioned much in front of the Cubs, who need more pitching prospects. They also got quick returns on spending their last two first-rounders on polished college hitters Matt Shaw and Cam Smith, so they could be attracted to Kilen, Summerhill and Irish.

 

[Bertz]

Plus fast all, plus command, and a plus plus changeup?  Sign me the horsefeathers up.  I trust this team to help a guy find a good breaking ball.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Longenhagen put a 50 grade on Bremner in his preseason rankings(#2-6 overall)

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Bremner is a box-checking college righty who does a little bit of everything and posted a 0.88 WHIP as a soph at UCSB. Bremner has a backspinning downhill fastball, and might benefit from a change in stride length or direction to create a flatter angle. He sat 95 during the 2024 college season and then 96 during the summer with Team USA. He also features a two-plane, bat-missing slider with tight, hard spin and uncommon velocity (85-88 mph) for a pitch with above-average length. Bremner's best pitch might be his low-80s changeup, which he pronates over top of to create sinking action. There are stretches where his arm slot drops when he's throwing the cambio, but you can go crazy projecting on that pitch because of his fluidity and arm speed. Both the slider and changeup generated plus rates of chase and miss in 2024. He's a high-floored fourth starter prospect and has a good shot to be the first player from this draft to debut, very likely a top 10 pick.

 

[CubinNY]

Why would he slip? 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Why would he slip? 

He struggled the first month of his junior season and his slider has not progressed at all.

(He finished the season strongly and I personally think he did enough to pitch himself back into the top 15.)

[JBears79]

I'd be curious to know how the Cubs view Jace LaViolette right now. I know he's slipping due to the swing and miss issues, but the Cubs have been taking a lot of guys with power in recent years as their main tool. Our system needs more power prospects too imo.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

22 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

I'd be curious to know how the Cubs view Jace LaViolette right now. I know he's slipping due to the swing and miss issues, but the Cubs have been taking a lot of guys with power in recent years as their main tool. Our system needs more power prospects too imo.

Admittedly I'm only judging based on the Shaw and Smith selections but I have to think LaViolette has too much swing and miss for Kantrovitz. While they might not have been picking in the best place to select them, Kantrovitz passed on Fabian and Honeycutt who had similar swing and miss concerns (admittedly both were worse than LaViolette).