2025 MLB Draft Thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is it notable that Bremner isn't name-checked despite seemingly (to my uneducated eye) fitting that power pitcher profile?  Or is there maybe an assumption he's a longshot to make it to 17 now?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

24 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Is it notable that Bremner isn't name-checked despite seemingly (to my uneducated eye) fitting that power pitcher profile?  Or is there maybe an assumption he's a longshot to make it to 17 now?

Is this re: Kiley? He seems lower on Bremner than others. He has him ranked 28th and going 27th in his most recent mock.

[Bertz]

Not super valuable since it reads like this is a dart throw rather than anything sourced, but Keith Law this AM

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Marek Houston

School: Wake Forest, Bats: R, Throws: R

This would be more of a value pick for the Cubs, similar to when Matt Shaw fell to them two years ago, versus Cam Smith last year, a player they ranked much higher than where they got him.

 

 

[Bertz]

Reading up more on Houston since I hadn't paid much attention to him prior to this, and man this board would hate that pick lol

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Reading up more on Houston since I hadn't paid much attention to him prior to this, and man this board would hate that pick lol

Houston would be...fine. He's kind of boring in that he's not like super-fun upsidey like Gage Wood or Kyson Witherspoon could be. He probably is far more likely to be an MLB player than most other picks in that range due his defense. BA has some data on the batted ball profile, the EV's aren't extremely great, but his contact% and especially against velocity is really high. He's pretty passive in the zone so you could point to this and say that the batted ball data and the power would improve even more than it has if you get the guy to swing at the meatballs more often. FWIW, the staff at BA just had a draft and they took Houston above the Cubs pick at 14. The pick was made by Peter Flaherty (Pontes took Aloy at 17)

He's a different player than Nico Hoerner in most ways, but he feels like Nico Hoerner did a few years ago; I wasn't wowed by the pick, the upside felt a little limited, but lo-and-behold not only has Hoerner's defense carried him to the majors, his strong contact ability and profile has made him one of the most successful pros in the draft. Houston has that kind of feel to him; whomever picks him won't be super wowed by anything, but you give it a few years and he's starting at shortstop by late 2027 for someone.

Especially in this draft, which feels a little less exciting than previous drafts (especially in the mid-late-first rounders), I don't think I'd hate a Houston pick if you liked your ability to continue to add to his power. Go get your fringey-skill, bigger upside picks in rounds two-through-four or something. 

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

He's a different player than Nico Hoerner in most ways, but he feels like Nico Hoerner did a few years ago; I wasn't wowed by the pick, the upside felt a little limited, but lo-and-behold not only has Hoerner's defense carried him to the majors, his strong contact ability and profile has made him one of the most successful pros in the draft. Houston has that kind of feel to him; whomever picks him won't be super wowed by anything, but you give it a few years and he's starting at shortstop by late 2027 for someone.

Yeah he reads like if you put Nico and Dansby in a blender.  That's probably phenomenal value but I don't expect this fanbase to process "10-12 homerun power" appropriately 

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah he reads like if you put Nico and Dansby in a blender.  That's probably phenomenal value but I don't expect this fanbase to process "10-12 homerun power" appropriately 

Oh, me either! I'd imagine a Houston pick would be met with a lot of talk that the Cubs are unhappy with Dansby Swanson's batting average with RISP in 2025 and the team attempting to unload him as soon as possible. I'd give it five minutes before there was a reddit thread on the exact topic.

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Houston would be...fine. He's kind of boring in that he's not like super-fun upsidey like Gage Wood or Kyson Witherspoon could be. He probably is far more likely to be an MLB player than most other picks in that range due his defense. BA has some data on the batted ball profile, the EV's aren't extremely great, but his contact% and especially against velocity is really high. He's pretty passive in the zone so you could point to this and say that the batted ball data and the power would improve even more than it has if you get the guy to swing at the meatballs more often. FWIW, the staff at BA just had a draft and they took Houston above the Cubs pick at 14. The pick was made by Peter Flaherty (Pontes took Aloy at 17)

He's a different player than Nico Hoerner in most ways, but he feels like Nico Hoerner did a few years ago; I wasn't wowed by the pick, the upside felt a little limited, but lo-and-behold not only has Hoerner's defense carried him to the majors, his strong contact ability and profile has made him one of the most successful pros in the draft. Houston has that kind of feel to him; whomever picks him won't be super wowed by anything, but you give it a few years and he's starting at shortstop by late 2027 for someone.

Especially in this draft, which feels a little less exciting than previous drafts (especially in the mid-late-first rounders), I don't think I'd hate a Houston pick if you liked your ability to continue to add to his power. Go get your fringey-skill, bigger upside picks in rounds two-through-four or something. 

I don't pretend to be anything other than an enthusiastic follower of the Cubs and the things associated with them, such as the minor leagues and keeping an eye on this year's crop of draft prospects. However, this kid may be the least suitable pick for the Cubs, given their current needs. I know it's mostly about best player available, and if they pick him, well, they've earned my trust. But good gravy, would that be an unsexy pick? 

[Outshined_One]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don't pretend to be anything other than an enthusiastic follower of the Cubs and the things associated with them, such as the minor leagues and keeping an eye on this year's crop of draft prospects. However, this kid may be the least suitable pick for the Cubs, given their current needs. I know it's mostly about best player available, and if they pick him, well, they've earned my trust. But good gravy, would that be an unsexy pick? 

This year is decidedly weird for the Cubs.  This draft's strength is with HS shortstops, which is a demographic the Cubs tend to avoid in early rounds (Ed Howard not withstanding, but 2020 was, well, 2020), and the Cubs are picking at 17, so the guys who fall into their usual bread and butter might be seen as unsexy picks or even overslots (RHPs Patrick Forbes and Riley Quick come to mind).

Come Saturday, we should have a better grip on how the chips are going to fall.  Right now the top of the draft is still getting sorted out, with three unpredictable teams picking in the Top 5, featuring the Nationals due to the Rizzo firing, and the Angels and Rockies being, well, the Angels and Rockies, so it's hard to get a read on who might actually be available at 17 at this point.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I don't pretend to be anything other than an enthusiastic follower of the Cubs and the things associated with them, such as the minor leagues and keeping an eye on this year's crop of draft prospects. However, this kid may be the least suitable pick for the Cubs, given their current needs. I know it's mostly about best player available, and if they pick him, well, they've earned my trust. But good gravy, would that be an unsexy pick? 

I think looking back at the 2018 draft is a good anecdote for this. Sexy picks at #24 could have been Seth Beer and his plus approach and solid college output, or JT Ginn, who had a 99mph fastball when they weren't all the rage. The Cubs instead took SS Nico Hoerner, someone who probably was always going to move off of SS at some point and wasn't the upside swing. Sure, Ginn could have been a TORP, and Seth Beer could have been Yordan Alvarez, but it was Nico Hoerner, the kind of ho-hum boring pick, that's turned into a top-5 player at his position, while it's taken Ginn until age 26 to even make his MLB debut (as a part time starter, part time reliever with an average FB velocity under 94mph) and Beer has a 74 wRC+ in Triple-A at age 28. 

Reality is, the sexy picks at the time, especially in the mid-late of the first, are probably only sexy if we focus on the 99% outcome. Like Jace Laviolette would be a sexy pick! He has some big power and was considered for 1:1 in the draft 5 months ago! But his swing and miss has become such an issue that I'm not sure he'll make it out of Double-A. The 99% outcome for Laviolette is a blast, but Marek Houston might be among the most likely to play MLB baseball due to his glove alone, and in the end, the sexiest picks are the ones that help your MLB roster. No one thinks Seth Beer is a sexy draft pick any more. I didn't realize JT Ginn was even in the MLB right now. But I know Nico Hoerner is top-5 in MLB fWAR at 2b.

When it comes to current needs: they change pretty quickly. What looks like a positive today (Swanson with players such as Jefferson Rojas, and a bunch of IFA types behind him) could look pretty thin if Rojas is dealt and the IFA types fail. Plus, it could be a situation where you take Marek Houston and then you trade him to someone who really wants a SS in the winter of 2026! 

I don't want to like stump for Houston; he's not top of my board either. Witherspoon, Wood, Aloy, Steele...I like those guys more, personally. But taking Houston, I'd be cool with. He's pretty unsexy today, but I really wouldn't be shocked to look back on this draft and five years and talk about Wood being the JT Ginn type, Laviolette being Seth Beer and Houston being Hoerner, too.

[Tryptamine]

Looking back at 2023 and man that has the potential to be a really good draft. Although the bat is currently struggling, Shaw looks very promising. Wiggins is Chicago's top pitching prospect and might sneak into some top 50s. Jonathan Long has looked like he might be a legitimate first division starter. Zyhir hope is killing it for the Dodgers and Ty Johnson is rocketing up boards in Tampa. That's even ignoring lesser heralded guys like Will Sanders who likely see the majors in the near future. 

[Jason Ross]

23 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Looking back at 2023 and man that has the potential to be a really good draft. Although the bat is currently struggling, Shaw looks very promising. Wiggins is Chicago's top pitching prospect and might sneak into some top 50s. Jonathan Long has looked like he might be a legitimate first division starter. Zyhir hope is killing it for the Dodgers and Ty Johnson is rocketing up boards in Tampa. That's even ignoring lesser heralded guys like Will Sanders who likely see the majors in the near future. 

Mentioned Ty on the podcast this week. Funny, at the time he felt like the guy in the Parades trade who was there for the ride, and he might be the best player the Rays get back. For the record, I'm fine with the trade! Just funny how that works. And the damn Rays and their myriad of horsefeathers arms.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I don't pretend to be anything other than an enthusiastic follower of the Cubs and the things associated with them, such as the minor leagues and keeping an eye on this year's crop of draft prospects. However, this kid may be the least suitable pick for the Cubs, given their current needs. I know it's mostly about best player available, and if they pick him, well, they've earned my trust. But good gravy, would that be an unsexy pick? 

Not that big a Houston fan compared to some of the other bats (and think he wouldn't be a fit for Kantrovitz' models because of his lower EVs) and arms that might be there at 17 but why are you drafting for need?

The Cubs just drafted college 3B in the first in consecutive years and it worked out fine.

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Not that big a Houston fan compared to some of the other bats (and think he wouldn't be a fit for Kantrovitz' models because of his lower EVs) and arms that might be there at 17 but why are you drafting for need?

The Cubs just drafted college 3B in the first in consecutive years and it worked out fine.

It's not necessarily about need as much as it is about redundancy.

[Bertz]

Nico Hoerner's a free agent in 15 months, Swanson's a 31 year old whose defensive metrics are down YoY, and the Cubs don't have a shortstop prospect worth a damn in AA or AAA.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

17 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It's not necessarily about need as much as it is about redundancy.

As Bertz pointed out, a MIF is not so redundant when he'll take 1-2 years to be big league ready.

And they can trade him if he forces the issue and they don't have an opening.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Seems like a good time to remember that everyone was terrified of the Cubs drafting Jacob Wilson because he was thought to be a low ceiling option, and he's starting the All-Star game at SS 24 months later with a 135 wRC+ and 5+ WAR pace.

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Seems like a good time to remember that everyone was terrified of the Cubs drafting Jacob Wilson because he was thought to be a low ceiling option, and he's starting the All-Star game at SS 24 months later with a 135 wRC+ and 5+ WAR pace.

I remember being fairly mad about the Nico pick.  There's enough egg on my face there (he's still leading that draft in career WAR) that I refuse to get mad about drafting "boring" guys again.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I remember being fairly mad about the Nico pick.  There's enough egg on my face there (he's still leading that draft in career WAR) that I refuse to get mad about drafting "boring" guys again.

And sometimes, "boring" guys can allow you to get slot savings for more "exciting" chances later.

[Tryptamine]

27 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Seems like a good time to remember that everyone was terrified of the Cubs drafting Jacob Wilson because he was thought to be a low ceiling option, and he's starting the All-Star game at SS 24 months later with a 135 wRC+ and 5+ WAR pace.

True enough, but did anyone reasonably think he'd have a unicorn skill set? The guys I consider the boring ones were guys like Schnauel in 2023 who has admittedly been ok so far. Then in 2022 it was a guy like Jacob Berry who turned out not to be so safe after all. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

True enough, but did anyone reasonably think he'd have a unicorn skill set? The guys I consider the boring ones were guys like Schnauel in 2023 who has admittedly been ok so far. Then in 2022 it was a guy like Jacob Berry who turned out not to be so safe after all. 

He went 6th overall with the 8th highest bonus, so I think a number of people did!

I think the takeaway we should have is that fans have always had an over-emphasis on potential/ceiling, and in the 2020s player development has been so revolutionized that draft-day proclamations about potential/ceiling have never been less relevant.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

13 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

True enough, but did anyone reasonably think he'd have a unicorn skill set? The guys I consider the boring ones were guys like Schnauel in 2023 who has admittedly been ok so far. Then in 2022 it was a guy like Jacob Berry who turned out not to be so safe after all. 

Seems like his bat-to-ball ability is incredibly elite and probably a bit of a unicorn skill set, especially in today's game. I felt like the question at draft time was whether he would be discerning enough not to swing at everything and get himself out on pitcher's pitches and if he had enough power.

(I will admit I wasn't a fan of his skillset but I also knew he wouldn't get to the Cubs.)

[Named After Maddux]

20 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Is this re: Kiley? He seems lower on Bremner than others. He has him ranked 28th and going 27th in his most recent mock.

I had an evaluator from another team around the Cubs range say they don't believe Bremner will make it down to them.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Also another note from BA at the 12th pick;

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The first 12 players off the board in this mock draft feel like the most commonly mentioned names at the top. Once they’re all off the board, I would expect things are going to break wide open. And given the track record of the draft, it would also not be shocking if one of these players wound up tumbling a bit further than everyone expects.

 

[Outshined_One]

USA Today mock, for what it's worth.

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17. Chicago Cubs: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas

We’ll stubbornly keep Aloy ticketed to the Cubs, even as a strong postseason that ended in Omaha further buttressed his profile. He might have smoother actions around the bag than Arquette, even if his offensive punch grades out a notch below the fellow Hawaiian collegiate star.

I can't complain, but I'm getting kind of tired of seeing this pick again and again and again and again.