Brewers (Rea) vs Cubs (Taillon): 7/23/24, 7:05pm

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

7 of the 8 have been on the IL this season. I don't like the %. Keep or attain every possible starter. 

That's pretty much all pitchers. Kyle isn't going to come here and and and play for nothing so he can sit on the bench and I'm certainly not going to give him 8-10M to be their 6 or 7th starter.

[Cuzi]

This FO is licking their chops to sign Walker Buehler or Shane Bieber on a short term value deal following their TJS. Kyle is as good as gone.

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That's pretty much all pitchers. Kyle isn't going to come here and and and play for nothing so he can sit on the bench and I'm certainly not going to give him 8-10M to be their 6 or 7th starter.

I'd gladly give him wisy and bote $ combined. Or maybe you can squeak by with Yan $. 

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

This offseason, assuming Bellinger does not opt out and they do not move Taillon. I want one reliable set up man for the pen. It doesn't have to be an expensive Kenley Jansen type. Everything else I want funneled into a combination of C/3B/RF/DH. If they can get a RFer, fine Seiya goes to DH. I'm 100% fine with not investing a dollar into the rotation because frankly I feel pretty good about some combination of Steele/Imanaga/Taillon/Assad/Wicks/Brown. 

I'm not even going to entertain the idea of Soto so, go grab JD Martinez and Bregman in FA. Send Morel to AAA or trade him. Deal some of that prospect surplus to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing who is completely blocked in LA. Get a 1 year stop gap C to back up Amaya until Rushing is ready in late 2025. Go into 2025 with a line up of 

C- Amaya

1B: Busch

2B: Nico

SS: Dansby

3B: Bregman

RF: Seiya

CF: Bellinger

LF: Happ

DH: Martinez

There's no super elite bat, but there's 6 guys who will likely be between 110-140 wRC+ with Dansby/Nico right around 100. That's a pretty deep lineup which is completely what this year's team lacks. 

This would be a very disappointing off season, even for the Cubs FO . I understand not expecting Soto. But they need to do more than this. They have enough young talent to make bigger deals than to get a minor league catcher. I would also rather see that talent used for a younger, bigger bat than Martinez. What are you doing with all the minor leaguers? In your list you don’t have PCA or Morel. What happens with them? I know you said Morel to the minors. But why not trade him plus other young talent for something better and younger than Martinez. Also, what happens with PCA? If Cubs management doesn’t want to swing hard on free agency they have to make a big trade(s). It will hurt in minor league assets, but the time to do it is next year. 25’ is definitely “put up or shut up” time for Jed and the FO. An uninspiring off season that you suggested would not be what I would expect. 

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

This would be a very disappointing off season, even for the Cubs FO . I understand not expecting Soto. But they need to do more than this. They have enough young talent to make bigger deals than to get a minor league catcher. I would also rather see that talent used for a younger, bigger bat than Martinez. What are you doing with all the minor leaguers? In your list you don’t have PCA or Morel. What happens with them? I know you said Morel to the minors. But why not trade him plus other young talent for something better and younger than Martinez. Also, what happens with PCA? If Cubs management doesn’t want to swing hard on free agency they have to make a big trade(s). It will hurt in minor league assets, but the time to do it is next year. 25’ is definitely “put up or shut up” time for Jed and the FO. An uninspiring off season that you suggested would not be what I would expect. 

Well for one, it wasn't a full blown offseason plan post. It was something put together in about 90 seconds. Also, I think you're severely underestimating Martinez. The guy put up a 135 wRC+ last year and was around that this year until a recent slump.  

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

This offseason, assuming Bellinger does not opt out and they do not move Taillon. I want one reliable set up man for the pen. It doesn't have to be an expensive Kenley Jansen type. Everything else I want funneled into a combination of C/3B/RF/DH. If they can get a RFer, fine Seiya goes to DH. I'm 100% fine with not investing a dollar into the rotation because frankly I feel pretty good about some combination of Steele/Imanaga/Taillon/Assad/Wicks/Brown. 

I'm not even going to entertain the idea of Soto so, go grab JD Martinez and Bregman in FA. Send Morel to AAA or trade him. Deal some of that prospect surplus to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing who is completely blocked in LA. Get a 1 year stop gap C to back up Amaya until Rushing is ready in late 2025. Go into 2025 with a line up of 

C- Amaya

1B: Busch

2B: Nico

SS: Dansby

3B: Bregman

RF: Seiya

CF: Bellinger

LF: Happ

DH: Martinez

There's no super elite bat, but there's 6 guys who will likely be between 110-140 wRC+ with Dansby/Nico right around 100. That's a pretty deep lineup which is completely what this year's team lacks. 

Trading a bunch of prospects for Paredes solves a lot of offensive problems for years to come.

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Well for one, it wasn't a full blown offseason plan post. It was something put together in about 90 seconds. Also, I think you're severely underestimating Martinez. The guy put up a 135 wRC+ last year and was around that this year until a recent slump.  

I know it was just a quick idea. And I didn’t hate it. I just think they should and will aim higher. As for Martinez, yes, he can still hit. But I want a younger guy they can have for many years. Your blueprint make sense. I just want a young big bat and feel we have enough prospects to get one. If they don’t get Soto, there isn’t a big bat I want via free agency, so they have to trade for one. 

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Trading a bunch of prospects for Paredes solves a lot of offensive problems for years to come.

Just looked at Paredes on BB Savant and a lot of batted ball percentile ratings are terrible, but have been the last 3 seasons.  His expected stats aren't good either.  His exit velo and bat speed are bad.  It's possible he's been really lucky.  No idea how he's hit all those HR with his profile.

Edited July 25, 2024 by Stratos

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Just looked at Paredes on BB Savant and a lot of batted ball percentile ratings are terrible, but have been the last 3 seasons.  His expected starts aren't good.  His exit velo and bat speed are bad.  These ratings aren't perfect but its possible he's been really lucky.  No idea how he's all those HR.

He has all of those HRs because he has perfected the art of pulling the ball.

Statistically speaking, batters performance is greater when they pull the ball.

I dont have faith in his success being as great outside of a dome with the wind, given his launch angle and lack of raw power, and the fact that Wrigley has the deepest corners in baseball. The overwhelming majority of his power is right down the foul line.

Edited July 25, 2024 by Cuzi

[Backtobanks]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Just looked at Paredes on BB Savant and a lot of batted ball percentile ratings are terrible, but have been the last 3 seasons.  His expected stats aren't good either.  His exit velo and bat speed are bad.  It's possible he's been really lucky.  No idea how he's hit all those HR with his profile.

The same complaints about Bellinger and yet we see what happens to the Cubs lineup when he's not in it.

[Rcal10]

Honestly, if not Paredes than who? What about McMahon? Solid defender who actually is hitting decent this year. And not just because of Coors. He has a reasonable contract. If they would consider Chapman because of defense or Bregman, then why not consider McMahon. Then focus on Soto. All in on Soto and just give him whatever it takes. If Bellinger than comes back you pick a DH between whichever guy doesn’t play the OF. PCA would not be an option except for defense and base running. So maybe he goes down for the year. If they fail on Soto, they use the system again for someone like Vlad or Robert. Maybe sign an innings eating starter and a pen arm. Though I am not sure they need either. And maybe sign Jansen. 
There are not very good options for 3rd base. That is why I originally suggested moving Busch to third and Bellinger to 1st. This way they only need one big bat anywhere and PCA stays in center. Personally I think Busch can handle it and that would make things a little easier to go all in on Soto or a big trade. You are only filling one position, a bat. I agree with Cuzi that the Cubs will have a different urgency this off season. If Jed wants to keep working he needs to make this a good team in 25’. 

[Cuzi]

McMahon has an elevated BABIP this season. His metrics are the best of his career, but are you really going to trade for a player on an outlier season, with a single elevated statistic that accounts for the only real difference in his batting line from when he has been a 90 wRC+ hitter, with only 1 guaranteed year of control?

If the Cubs want to go after Soto or Vlad, they are going to have to think outside the box at 3B. The options are very uninspirational. That's why I've brought up Ronny Mauricio. Others have brought up Eguy Rosario. The Cubs are going to have to find their Joey Ortiz.

The options at catcher are even worse. I truly dont have a clue what the Cubs do there. The chances guys like O'Hoppe and Langelliers get moved are slim to none. The best options seem to be ones that wont be starting the season on the MLB roster, like Ford from the Mariners or Teel from the Red Sox. But then you are talking strictly about the highly coveted prospect that works out on average like 10% of the time. Are the Royals willing to trade Fermin, given that Perez is still around for another year and 2 of their top 10 prospects are catchers? Or maybe you target one of those prospects and ask about Carter Jensen who just got promoted to AA and gets good marks on his defense and eye at the plate, though his bat sounds to be pretty passive similar to Ian Happ when he started. Danny Jansen has 2 straight years of regression and this season has lost 5 MPHs on his max exit velocity from his good years. He's turning into the catching version of a Paredes himself and he's not that great of a defensive catcher, so if he can't hit for power any more then what good is he? I truly dont have a damn clue what to do at catcher. Going the prospect route seems to be the best option.

Edited July 25, 2024 by Cuzi

[NorthsideAvenger]

TIL the Brewers signed Jadyn Fielder and now I feel ancient. 

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

The same complaints about Bellinger and yet we see what happens to the Cubs lineup when he's not in it.

Yeah that rousing .740 OPS from Bellinger (which he's lucky to have based on the expected stats) is clearly what's going on here.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Honestly, if not Paredes than who? What about McMahon? Solid defender who actually is hitting decent this year. And not just because of Coors. He has a reasonable contract. If they would consider Chapman because of defense or Bregman, then why not consider McMahon. Then focus on Soto. All in on Soto and just give him whatever it takes. If Bellinger than comes back you pick a DH between whichever guy doesn’t play the OF. PCA would not be an option except for defense and base running. So maybe he goes down for the year. If they fail on Soto, they use the system again for someone like Vlad or Robert. Maybe sign an innings eating starter and a pen arm. Though I am not sure they need either. And maybe sign Jansen. 
There are not very good options for 3rd base. That is why I originally suggested moving Busch to third and Bellinger to 1st. This way they only need one big bat anywhere and PCA stays in center. Personally I think Busch can handle it and that would make things a little easier to go all in on Soto or a big trade. You are only filling one position, a bat. I agree with Cuzi that the Cubs will have a different urgency this off season. If Jed wants to keep working he needs to make this a good team in 25’. 

Going forward the Cubs have some INF options.  They have Shaw who we assume can play 3B or 2B, and Triantos at 2B.  That means they can acquire a short-term or long-term 3B and in the case of the latter when either of the above are ready eventually trade Nico, or shift Nico to SS and trade Swanson (though Nico is a FA after 2026).

Rather than getting older and more expensive with a 30+ y/o Bregman or Chapman etc the ideal is to get young and cheap and pull a Busch or a Parades type trade.  That's why i'd keep Shaw if possible.  That money can then be spent elsewhere, like a Soto or another FA or extending whomever in the future.

[Backtobanks]

4 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah that rousing .740 OPS from Bellinger (which he's lucky to have based on the expected stats) is clearly what's going on here.

Somebody with a .740 OPS and a 108 OPS+ would look great in this lineup of Mendoza line hitters.

[UMFan83]

5 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

TIL the Brewers signed Jadyn Fielder and now I feel ancient. 

What the hell?