Cubs (Imanaga) @ Brewers (WIlson) :: 5/29/24, 6:40pm, Marquee

[Southpaw19]

Credit: ObviousShirts

 

It's Shōta Day!
For the love of all that is holy - get this man some RUNS - and let his historic start continue.

Happ surprisingly rakes against Wilson - and only Tauchman has a HR off him.

Let's get 2 in a row!

[squally1313]

Assume there will be a roster move on the Megill front before tonights game, but otherwise according to FG the Brewers pitched every pitcher except for one last night, and that one pitcher (Hudson) threw 32 pitches the day before, so they're a little thin. If we think they try to avoid the 3 games in 4 days issue, that would also put Pegeuro, Payamps, and Paredes on the 'they'd like to avoid using them' list, and Milner is already going on three games in four days so assume he's definitely out (though he kinda seems to have a rubber arm with that funky delivery). 

This is all supporting Bryse Wilson who is already at 44 innings this year after only pitching 76.2 last year, and it looks like they tried to use an opener for him last time out, so it seems they're a little concerned about his usage. To continue the good news, while his ERA (2.86) looks good, he's running a .232 BABIP and a 90% LOB, so the advanced stats think he's been pretty mediocre. Yes, I'm aware, black holes, abominations, pathetic choking dogs, etc....but you have to like your chances with Shota (who they haven't seen before) against the current version of the Brewers pitching staff, which is the road split you're realistically hoping for (and I like Taillon vs Rea on Thursday too).  

[gflore34]

44 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Assume there will be a roster move on the Megill front before tonights game, but otherwise according to FG the Brewers pitched every pitcher except for one last night, and that one pitcher (Hudson) threw 32 pitches the day before, so they're a little thin. If we think they try to avoid the 3 games in 4 days issue, that would also put Pegeuro, Payamps, and Paredes on the 'they'd like to avoid using them' list, and Milner is already going on three games in four days so assume he's definitely out (though he kinda seems to have a rubber arm with that funky delivery). 

This is all supporting Bryse Wilson who is already at 44 innings this year after only pitching 76.2 last year, and it looks like they tried to use an opener for him last time out, so it seems they're a little concerned about his usage. To continue the good news, while his ERA (2.86) looks good, he's running a .232 BABIP and a 90% LOB, so the advanced stats think he's been pretty mediocre. Yes, I'm aware, black holes, abominations, pathetic choking dogs, etc....but you have to like your chances with Shota (who they haven't seen before) against the current version of the Brewers pitching staff, which is the road split you're realistically hoping for (and I like Taillon vs Rea on Thursday too).  

Today starter plus, among others, Rea do you think its safe to say the success of the Brewers pitching staff is somewhat smoke and mirror-ey?  And not sustainable over the course of a long season?

Edited May 29, 2024 by gflore34

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Today starter plus, among others, Rea do you think its safe to say the success of the Brewers pitching staff is somewhat smoke and mirror-ey?  And not sustainable over the course of a long season?

I think the organization has earned the benefit of the doubt in being able to piece together an effective bullpen that's going to end up better than the sum of its parts, as much as we'd like to think we stole the key piece of that over the offseason. And that's with Devin Williams having not thrown a pitch but on his way back. 

Their starters look thin though. Peralta is a stud, obviously, but Miley is down for the year, Ross has a back issue, some lesser signings (Hall, Junis) are fighting injuries and also general ineffectiveness. This Gasser kid has come out hot (1 walk and no HRs in 23 innings), but isn't striking anyone out. Ashby looks broken and there's not much support left at the AAA level. You'll have to assume they'll figure out one or two guys to support Peralta, because they always do, but think the back half is going to be pretty dire for the foreseeable future. 

[Stratos]

If our starter can no hit them again we have a decent shot at winning this in extra innings again.

[CubinNY]

16 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Today starter plus, among others, Rea do you think its safe to say the success of the Brewers pitching staff is somewhat smoke and mirror-ey?  And not sustainable over the course of a long season?

I think the Brewers have a really smart front office who knows what they are doing and there is no smoke or mirrors. They are surely overperforming, but I expect them to be good for the year. 

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I think the Brewers have a really smart front office who knows what they are doing and there is no smoke or mirrors. They are surely overperforming, but I expect them to be good for the year. 

Agreed. I think the Brewers have the best front office in baseball. Just look at what they do with a small budget. Most here complain about the Cubs piecing a pen together. That is exactly what the Brewers do. Hell, Megill and Hudson were Cubs. They made an amazing trade for Contreras. Looks like they got a rotation piece for Hader. They also got a solid 3rd baseman for Burnes and their minor league system is solid. If/when Jed moves on, I would love for the Cubs to look into the brewers GM. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

They made an amazing trade for Contreras

I still feel like one of those other teams should have noticed the Brewers were getting a lot for a little.

[CubinNY]

25 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Agreed. I think the Brewers have the best front office in baseball. Just look at what they do with a small budget. Most here complain about the Cubs piecing a pen together. That is exactly what the Brewers do. Hell, Megill and Hudson were Cubs. They made an amazing trade for Contreras. Looks like they got a rotation piece for Hader. They also got a solid 3rd baseman for Burnes and their minor league system is solid. If/when Jed moves on, I would love for the Cubs to look into the brewers GM. 

Jed will be here as long as he wants to be here. Tommy Boy isn't going to fire his boy. 

[gflore34]

21 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

I still feel like one of those other teams should have noticed the Brewers were getting a lot for a little.

Far as I can tell the main piece for the Braves was Sean Murphy?  That's not aging too well, nice to know that even the vaunted Atlanta Braves can sometimes horsefeathers up a trade.

[Bertz]

We can acknowledge that the Brewers are good at what they're doing without pretending they're omniscient.  There's zero reason to believe Rea or Wilson aren't getting lucky, much in the same way there's zero reason to believe Assad's not getting lucky.  They problem is you can't just point at a guy and yell "j'accuse!" and have their numbers immediately start evening out.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The problem is you can't just point at a guy and yell "j'accuse!" and have their numbers immediately start evening out.

We should try that anyway

[ToolDRT]

Anyone else have a bad feeling about Shota tonight? Regression has to come sometime and this would be about the worst time it could happen for us. 

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Anyone else have a bad feeling about Shota tonight? Regression has to come sometime and this would be about the worst time it could happen for us. 

Big difference, yes, Shota has over achieved however, there's enough evidence to say he's the real deal just, perhaps, not to this level.  Still, genuinely good, whereas, Wilson is over achieving and he's genuinely not good.

Edited May 29, 2024 by gflore34

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

We can acknowledge that the Brewers are good at what they're doing without pretending they're omniscient.  There's zero reason to believe Rea or Wilson aren't getting lucky, much in the same way there's zero reason to believe Assad's not getting lucky.  They problem is you can't just point at a guy and yell "j'accuse!" and have their numbers immediately start evening out.

I agree. And that is why I didn’t mention Wilson or Rea. But beteeen picking up pen arms for cheap and filling spots in the pen with organizational guys, they have done a good job with the pen. They have also make several good trades. As I mentioned, Contreras, Ortiz, Gassor, even Adames and going back further, Yelich were all from trades. They have also filled in with young talent. They are good at what they do. 

[ToolDRT]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Big difference, yes, Shota has over achieved however, there's enough evidence to say he's the real deal just, perhaps, not to this level.  Still, genuinely good, whereas, Wilson is over achieving and he's genuinely not good.

Oh I don’t disagree that he’s excellent. My fear is he has to come down from this somewhat and with the offense the way it is this would be the worst time for it. But I’m ever the pessimist, don’t listen to me. 

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

Anyone else have a bad feeling about Shota tonight? Regression has to come sometime and this would be about the worst time it could happen for us. 

With their current injuries I think the Brewers lineup is a lot scarier vs. RHP than LHP.  I do have the same gut feel that this is of course the day Shota finally puts up a stinker, but it should be fine?

[Stratos]

Cubs are dead last in MLB in runs scored from April 27 to May 27.

In April they scored the 2nd most runs in MLB.

[ToolDRT]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

With their current injuries I think the Brewers lineup is a lot scarier vs. RHP than LHP.  I do have the same gut feel that this is of course the day Shota finally puts up a stinker, but it should be fine?

Let’s just hope that feeling is us having eaten something bad 🤣

[Southpaw19]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Cubs are dead last in MLB in runs scored from April 27 to May 27.

In April they scored the 2nd most runs in MLB.

[Derwood]

 

[UMFan83]

Well if he does regress tonight I will say that on May 29th, Shota has the lowest ERA in baseball for any pitcher with 50+ IP this year (0.84) and he’s leading by 0.90 runs over the 2nd best pitcher, Seth Lugo (1.74)

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

Well if he does regress tonight I will say that on May 29th, Shota has the lowest ERA in baseball for any pitcher with 50+ IP this year (0.84) and he’s leading by 0.90 runs over the 2nd best pitcher, Seth Lugo (1.74)

If he can get 6 or 7 tonight with giving up 1 or none,  his next start will be against the Whitesox and he will have a great opportunity to knock his ERA around  .75 after 11 starts which would be crazy.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Suzuki is a butcher out there, terrible line to each fly ball

[Rex Buckingham]

felt like Seiya took an awful route on that... looked like it could have been caught