Cubs (Assad, 3-0, 1.70 ERA) vs. Braves (Morton, 3-0, 3.14 ERA) 6:20 PM CDT

[squally1313]

31 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

More seriously, I am softening on the idea of PCA being able to learn at the big league level vs. needing more Iowa time to get at bats.  That said, I'd caution that his current top line results don't portend a lot of optimism of continuing unless adjustments happen.  HBP are more than 10% of his time on base, and his contact quality is not great.  If he's going to hover at the big league average K rate though, he can be plenty functional as long as pitchers don't find a super-repeatable easy button to get pop ups or ground balls.

All fair. If his HBP/contact regression aligns with the other four outfielders being healthy/not completely lost (haven't seen it yet), then you start worrying about PAs a little bit (because I think, ignoring all the people who want Happ taken out back and shot, then expected versions of Happ, Bellinger, Seiya, Tauchman are all better than a .285 OBP PCA for the immediate future). But we'll cross that bridge on the off chance we come to it. 

[Bertz]

Yeah I think unless/until our best DH option is not an outfielder, or until his performance craters, PCA probably ought to be up and playing 4ish days a week.  

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, CubUgly said:

Yeah, the stat nerds keep saying it's not sustainable....well, the sample size is pretty large now!!

One of the biggest talking points of it not being sustainable is the batting average with men in scoring position. And it is extremely low. However the man has a WHIP of 1.034, so it is not like many are getting on base anyway. Sure he will regress some. And initially I still considered him to be a very solid BOR starter even with regression. However, if he keeps up the WHIP number he will be a very solid #2 or, at worst, #3 starter even if the BA goes up with men on or in scoring position. 

[squally1313]

59 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

One of the biggest talking points of it not being sustainable is the batting average with men in scoring position. And it is extremely low. However the man has a WHIP of 1.034, so it is not like many are getting on base anyway. Sure he will regress some. And initially I still considered him to be a very solid BOR starter even with regression. However, if he keeps up the WHIP number he will be a very solid #2 or, at worst, #3 starter even if the BA goes up with men on or in scoring position. 

Yeah I mean, his LOB% is 7th in baseball (Shota is first, which probably isn't great), and would have been first last year, so even setting aside the impressive WHIP it's fair to expect the big picture numbers to get worse. 3.8% HR/FB is also a skill that would be really cool to have, but...probably not.

But the thing about a 1.49 ERA is that it's like, historically good in larger sample sizes, and can more than double before you get past whatever your definition of #2 starter is.  

[Rcal10]

41 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I mean, his LOB% is 7th in baseball (Shota is first, which probably isn't great), and would have been first last year, so even setting aside the impressive WHIP it's fair to expect the big picture numbers to get worse. 3.8% HR/FB is also a skill that would be really cool to have, but...probably not.

But the thing about a 1.49 ERA is that it's like, historically good in larger sample sizes, and can more than double before you get past whatever your definition of #2 starter is.  

That is all I am saying. Of course he isn’t going to pitch to a 1.49 ERA all year. But even double puts him just under 3.00. (For rounding sake, let’s call it 3.00). That’s still a very fine pitcher who I wouldn’t mind as the #2 or #3 guy in a playoff series. 

[Bertz]

I'm intrigued by some of the stuff about opposite field flyballs Trueblood posted, but broadly with Assad two things are true:

- He has likely been extraordinarily lucky.  He is not a soft contact guy.  He is not an extreme groundball guy.  He is not an extreme strikeout guy.  The ways that someone can break FIP that we are aware of simply aren't present here

- He has been good even when you strip out all luck.  Going back to August 1st of last year Assad has, 3 short relief appearances aside, been a starter.  In that time he has a 3.95 xFIP while the league mark is 4.16

[CubinNY]

Regression to the mean is inevitable. Let's all enjoy it as long as it lasts.