Dodgers (Miller) vs Cubs (Hendricks): 4/5/24, 1:20pm, Marquee

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here we go, it's Dodgers time.

[CubinNY]

What is the wind doing today?

 

[Bertz]

I believe this matchup is the hardest throwing SP in the league vs. the softest.  Last year Bobby Miller was the hardest thrower in the league a smidge above Hunter Greene.  Hendricks was the second softest tosser ahead of Adam Wainwright, who obviously retired.

This series is going to be rough, just take one of three and combined with the Rockies series you had a nice little 4-2 homestand.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hendricks against the Dodgers at Wrigley?  You know what time it is

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Huge test for the offense's plate discipline and Ks. Miller's stuff is outstanding. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jokes aside, this will be an interesting first test of how optimized Counsell wants to make matchups.  In AAA Busch was not great against elite velo, combined with Hendricks GB tendencies it might be a good day to go with Tauchman and Madrigal and push Busch to the bench(Bellinger 1B, Morel DH)

[Bertz]

20 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

What is the wind doing today?

 

 

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

It seems like the Doyers are always chock full of superstars exceeding expectations and prospects who don't miss. I really hate them for that.

[KCCub]

We're going to find out what our offense is all about over the next 3-4 series. If you look at the scheduled pitching matchups over that time, I don't think it's possible to get a tougher stretch in regards to the highend SP we are lined up against.

[ToolDRT]

I don’t want the dodgers to smash us 

[squally1313]

53 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Hendricks against the Dodgers at Wrigley?  You know what time it is

 

javypoppingthebackofkylesjerseyashegotpulledtopumpupthecrowd.gif

[Jason Ross]

53 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Jokes aside, this will be an interesting first test of how optimized Counsell wants to make matchups.  In AAA Busch was not great against elite velo, combined with Hendricks GB tendencies it might be a good day to go with Tauchman and Madrigal and push Busch to the bench(Bellinger 1B, Morel DH)

So a bit of a misnomer on the Busch thing. Mike Pietriello had put out a tweet that showed Busch's struggles against high velo...but it dated back to 2022. In 2022, Busch was pretty terrible against velocity at Triple-A but made some really impressive gains (in the MilB) in 2023 against velocity. He put up an OPS over 1.000 against 94-97mph (compared to .796 the season before) and improved his in zone whiff% on pitches in this range from 23% to just around 8%. It's kind of hard to see if he made much improvement on pitches above 97mph in Triple-A considering that in 2023 he had just 8 PA's in which he faced high velocity. What we can say is that on those 37 pitches he saw in those PA's his in zone whiff% dropped from 55% (2022) to around 14%. He didn't do much with them, but with the amount of pitches he faced, it's really hard to say what any of that really means. He also saw two pitches over 100+ mph in Triple-A and swung at one...he hit a single. Considering the progress made on the 94-97mph, I think it's fair to think that some progress had been made at 97+ and we'd have seen that with a sample size worth really noting but how much is really questionable. 

Main point: I think the "Busch struggles with velocity thing" is a bit overshadowed by initial struggles in Triple-A and his 100 PA's in the MLB last year. I'm not confident he's good at it, but steps were taken from 2022 to 2023 and I didn't see a mechanical change, so I think his pitch recognition got better and his swing decisions improved (thus why even in small samples his in-zone whiff% got better). I'm not entirely sure what the cut off on elite is, so feel free to tell me semantically, the 94-97mph range isn't that interesting, as well. I'd say the top end of that sample size is definitely on the "elite" side myself, but the word elite is so hard to define, I can see if we have different opinions.

[CubinNY]

28 minutes ago, KCCub said:

We're going to find out what our offense is all about over the next 3-4 series. If you look at the scheduled pitching matchups over that time, I don't think it's possible to get a tougher stretch in regards to the highend SP we are lined up against.

These 15-20 games are tough, but good teams make it through. I will be happy if they are at or around .500 after this is all over. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

So a bit of a misnomer on the Busch thing. Mike Pietriello had put out a tweet that showed Busch's struggles against high velo...but it dated back to 2022. In 2022, Busch was pretty terrible against velocity at Triple-A but made some really impressive gains (in the MilB) in 2023 against velocity. He put up an OPS over 1.000 against 94-97mph (compared to .796 the season before) and improved his in zone whiff% on pitches in this range from 23% to just around 8%. It's kind of hard to see if he made much improvement on pitches above 97mph in Triple-A considering that in 2023 he had just 8 PA's in which he faced high velocity. What we can say is that on those 37 pitches he saw in those PA's his in zone whiff% dropped from 55% (2022) to around 14%. He didn't do much with them, but with the amount of pitches he faced, it's really hard to say what any of that really means. He also saw two pitches over 100+ mph in Triple-A and swung at one...he hit a single. Considering the progress made on the 94-97mph, I think it's fair to think that some progress had been made at 97+ and we'd have seen that with a sample size worth really noting but how much is really questionable. 

Main point: I think the "Busch struggles with velocity thing" is a bit overshadowed by initial struggles in Triple-A and his 100 PA's in the MLB last year. I'm not confident he's good at it, but steps were taken from 2022 to 2023 and I didn't see a mechanical change, so I think his pitch recognition got better and his swing decisions improved (thus why even in small samples his in-zone whiff% got better). I'm not entirely sure what the cut off on elite is, so feel free to tell me semantically, the 94-97mph range isn't that interesting, as well. I'd say the top end of that sample size is definitely on the "elite" side myself, but the word elite is so hard to define, I can see if we have different opinions.

I vaguely recall the Petriello tweet, but what I was mostly reacting to was Bryan Smith pointing out 2023 numbers:

 

There's some room for optimism given the peripherals and I don't want to suggest that's a permanent state of being for him, but as part of trying to win games and balance workloads I do think that's a place where we may see him shielded a bit.  They currently aren't slated to face a LHSP for the next 3 series at least so he won't be in/out on strict platoon grounds for a while either.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I vaguely recall the Petriello tweet, but what I was mostly reacting to was Bryan Smith pointing out 2023 numbers:

 

There's some room for optimism given the peripherals and I don't want to suggest that's a permanent state of being for him, but as part of trying to win games and balance workloads I do think that's a place where we may see him shielded a bit.  They currently aren't slated to face a LHSP for the next 3 series at least so he won't be in/out on strict platoon grounds for a while either.

Yeah, if we're sitting him once this weekend, it's probably Bobby Miller to pick. Where Busch sucked at consistently in the MiLB was against sliders, and neither Yamamoto not Stone throw them. Added with the iffy-ness in his career over the velocity (though, I'd actually say Bryan Smith's tweet does the opposite for me; I think that shows a bit of bad luck, as he hit the ball decently well against 95mph and just didn't always get the results) Miller's probably the worst of all 3 matchups for him.

[Rob]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, if we're sitting him once this weekend, it's probably Bobby Miller to pick. Where Busch sucked at consistently in the MiLB was against sliders, and neither Yamamoto not Stone throw them. Added with the iffy-ness in his career over the velocity (though, I'd actually say Bryan Smith's tweet does the opposite for me; I think that shows a bit of bad luck, as he hit the ball decently well against 95mph and just didn't always get the results) Miller's probably the worst of all 3 matchups for him.

Potentially a tough matchup, wind blowing in (albeit from LF), no other clear opportunities to rest Busch for a while.

My guess is that he's riding the pine today. But given how impressive he's been thus far, I also wouldn't be surprised if Counsell gives him a shot today. I don't think there's a "wrong" answer here -- hence why it's such a good test case to see how Counsell manages.

[Brian707]

Ohtani's first visit to Wrigley Field apparently. I wonder if he will stay away from the Draft Kings sports book? 

Cubs taking 1 of 3 in this series should be considered a success. The Doyers are always awesome until October 1st.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rob said:

Potentially a tough matchup, wind blowing in (albeit from LF), no other clear opportunities to rest Busch for a while.

My guess is that he's riding the pine today. But given how impressive he's been thus far, I also wouldn't be surprised if Counsell gives him a shot today. I don't think there's a "wrong" answer here -- hence why it's such a good test case to see how Counsell manages.

Yep. I really wouldn't be surprised to see him still in the lineup. I have a feeling the Cubs really like him and the processes by which he goes about things. The Cubs face Darvish Monday, who throws a good deal of sweepers/sliders (almost the same amount of fastballs as sweepers/sliders last year), with Musgrove going Tuesday (who, doesn't). With the off-day yesterday, I think Monday is probably the "best" sit-day of the next 4, but it could also be two sit-days, as well.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Hendricks gonna make me a sweet bundle today

[Outshined_One]

This is going to be one of those games where, six months from now, you look back at the lineup and are shocked at how much has changed since then.

It's like looking back on the 2015 team and seeing starting lineups with Mike Olt at 3B and Starlin Castro at SS in April.

[Bertz]

 

[Rob]

18 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This is going to be one of those games where, six months from now, you look back at the lineup and are shocked at how much has changed since then.

It's like looking back on the 2015 team and seeing starting lineups with Mike Olt at 3B and Starlin Castro at SS in April.

I'm curious, who all do you think is being replaced?

I could see us demoting Gomes into more of a backup role, but he's still gonna get starts. The only guys who aren't well-established starters in our lineup today are Morel, Busch, and Madrigal. And even that's a misnomer, as Morel is 100% a starter, it's just a question of if he gets to play in the field.

[gflore34]

Miller, from Elk Grove, was drafted 29th in 2020, Cubs took Howard at 16 that year.  Think there's a better than average chance Howard never makes it and is out of baseball within the next five years.  Do the Dodgers EVER horsefeathers up a draft?

[CubinNY]

Let's get this party started. Too bad I'm still at work, I'd love to have a few beers. 

[CubinNY]

51 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Miller, from Elk Grove, was drafted 29th in 2020, Cubs took Howard at 16 that year.  Think there's a better than average chance Howard never makes it and is out of baseball within the next five years.  Do the Dodgers EVER horsefeathers up a draft?

I think it's more development than draft.