Is it time to trade Bellinger?

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

Bump

[Brian707]

9 minutes ago, Javy Is Still A Cub said:

Bump

[Derwood]

I wouldn't shed a tear if he was shipped out. He's a shell of himself

[JHBulls]

Yes. Bellinger should be traded before he sucks more and takes his player option for next year. 

Edited June 8, 2024 by JHBulls

[731.4life]

I would love to see Bellinger in Baltimore. Mullins is hitting .173 for the Orioles. Hope to get Samuel Basallo in return, which is the #13 overall prospect. Not sure how Baltimore feels about that.

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, 731.4life said:

I would love to see Bellinger in Baltimore. Mullins is hitting .173 for the Orioles. Hope to get Samuel Basallo in return, which is the #13 overall prospect. Not sure how Baltimore feels about that.

There's just zero chance of that even remotely being considered. If you're going with Baltimore the upper tier of the talent you're possibly looking at is Norby and more than likely you're shopping in the Beavers/McDermott/Wagner/Johnson end of the talent pool.

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

It's gone pretty well for the Cubs, at least as regards this scenario: 

PCA has played so well he's forced his way into MLB. His bat is still iffy, but not on this club recently. 

Busch has been solid but not spectacular, which is a win. Trending for almost 3 WAR and out OPS-ing Bellinger for $26,780,000 less.

Caissie is doing so well he'll have to be put on the 40 man and probably will be called up this fall to have a cup of tea (he's Canadian). 

"So Where's the spot for Bellinger," I repeat?

He's playing well enough to be appealing to other teams but not so good that he's not expendable for the Cubs. The Cubs still don't have what they need to make the jump to a dominant team - a superstar masher, a superstar ace and a superstar closer. 

To me Bellinger remains a part of their 231 trade chip list to fill those actual needs. Like the Busch trade did. Use these chips to make the only trades this team needs: for a superstar ace, hitter or closer... still. 

[Bertz]

Bellinger's not getting traded.  Player options at such a high salary are more or less a poison pill.  

That said, assuming his lackluster defensive start to the season is weird SSS, and given his sprint speed is fine I don't know why it wouldn't be, he seems a decent bet to opt out.  He's not hitting as well as last year, but no one looking at him with clear eyes expected him to.  The reason he didn't get his big money last winter was that he was so awful in '21 and '22 and he got to his offense in a weird way.  If he ends up with 3+ WAR and a 110+ wRC+ and plus defense in CF he should be able to go out get his "Brandon Nimmo plus Inflation" contract.  Particularly with the qualifying offer off his back.

[Javy Is Still A Cub]

So if he's going to go - and all the other pieces around him are improving or ready - is it time to trade Bellinger? Why not? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1. Bellinger has limited trade value, like Bertz said no team is going to give up significant value to get a partial season of Bellinger at 27 million that becomes 2.5 years only if he underperforms.

2. The alternatives are not ready to replace his productivity. PCA has the same wRC+ as Madrigal, Caissie has zero MLB PA.  

3. Even if some of the alternatives were ready, it's a false choice.  Injuries, rest, and optimizing matchups mean that there's no actual surplus or problem that needs to be solved with a Bellinger trade.  This is doubly true when Bellinger is a good defender at 3 different spots and multiple options around RF and 1B are uncertain defenders that can play DH(Busch, Suzuki).  We need to stop thinking about team building as 9 main characters that make up the lineup and the moment you have 4 guys for 3 spots that's an issue requiring changes.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Javy Is Still A Cub said:

So if he's going to go - and all the other pieces around him are improving or ready - is it time to trade Bellinger? Why not? 

Better question is why? Why would they trade him? I don’t think this team will be in a dump mode at the deadline. So why trade someone who plays everyday? And then when yiu add his value wouldn’t bring much back, all the more….. why trade him? 

[chibears55]

My wish would be that they ask Happ for a list of teams he'd agree to waive his NT for and move him.

Looking ahead to 2025, they're going to have to clear at least one outfielder spot and possibly two.

Bellinger player option (25/26)

Suzuki 2 yrs remaining

Happ 2 yrs remaining 

Prospects: 2025?

PCA, Caissie, Alcantara 

[731.4life]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

My wish would be that they ask Happ for a list of teams he'd agree to waive his NT for and move him.

Looking ahead to 2025, they're going to have to clear at least one outfielder spot and possibly two.

Bellinger player option (25/26)

Suzuki 2 yrs remaining

Happ 2 yrs remaining 

Prospects: 2025?

PCA, Caissie, Alcantara 

This is where not going on a "full" rebuild like what the Cubs did in the early 2010's and what Baltimore just went through, is getting the Cubs. Field a competitive team by signing Happ and Suzuki to make the fans happy, but the team isn't good enough this year to be "buyers" in the trading market. So what do they do? 

You can even add Matt Shaw on the list for 2025. 

James Triantos and Shaw are both in Tennessee. They're both top 60 prospects according to mlb.com. Shaw was getting a lot of playing time at second base, but he's moving to third and they let Triantos play 2nd base. 

They're going to have to make trades in the offseason just to fix the numbers when it comes to the roster. They'll be even more in a jam next year when Triantos is in Iowa, and Shaw will be one of those "Iowa for a few weeks, then in Chicago" type of prospect to start the season. Moises Ballesteros will be added to that list if he is still producing.

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, 731.4life said:

This is where not going on a "full" rebuild like what the Cubs did in the early 2010's and what Baltimore just went through, is getting the Cubs. Field a competitive team by signing Happ and Suzuki to make the fans happy, but the team isn't good enough this year to be "buyers" in the trading market. So what do they do? 

You can even add Matt Shaw on the list for 2025. 

James Triantos and Shaw are both in Tennessee. They're both top 60 prospects according to mlb.com. Shaw was getting a lot of playing time at second base, but he's moving to third and they let Triantos play 2nd base. 

They're going to have to make trades in the offseason just to fix the numbers when it comes to the roster. They'll be even more in a jam next year when Triantos is in Iowa, and Shaw will be one of those "Iowa for a few weeks, then in Chicago" type of prospect to start the season. Moises Ballesteros will be added to that list if he is still producing.

Why aren’t they good enough to be buyers? So are only 4 teams in the NL buyers? Maybe they don’t make a bold move that a sure playoff team makes, but I don’t see why they would sell. They are 3 games better than last year at this time.. And last year after 93 games they were 7 games under .500. And they didn’t sell. If the question is “is now the time to trade Bellinger” the answer is absolutely not. Maybe if they are 6-8 under 500 near the deadline they do that. But not at this time. 
 

[Tim]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why aren’t they good enough to be buyers? So are only 4 teams in the NL buyers? Maybe they don’t make a bold move that a sure playoff team makes, but I don’t see why they would sell. They are 3 games better than last year at this time.. And last year after 93 games they were 7 games under .500. And they didn’t sell. If the question is “is now the time to trade Bellinger” the answer is absolutely not. Maybe if they are 6-8 under 500 near the deadline they do that. But not at this time. 
 

Brett at BN pointed out that on June 8th last year, the Cubs lost their third in a row in Anaheim to drop to 10 games under, then started an 11-2 streak by winning on June 9th. This year, the Cubs lost their third in a row in Cincy to drop to 3 games under, then won on June 9th (and hopefully starting a similar streak). 

Mix in one hot streak like that along with otherwise .500 ball and the Cubs are in solid playoff position.

[squally1313]

10 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Looking ahead to 2025, they're going to have to clear at least one outfielder spot and possibly two.

Why

[Rcal10]

57 minutes ago, Tim said:

Brett at BN pointed out that on June 8th last year, the Cubs lost their third in a row in Anaheim to drop to 10 games under, then started an 11-2 streak by winning on June 9th. This year, the Cubs lost their third in a row in Cincy to drop to 3 games under, then won on June 9th (and hopefully starting a similar streak). 

Mix in one hot streak like that along with otherwise .500 ball and the Cubs are in solid playoff position.

Agreed. And I am not even sure they need some sort of hit streak right now. Just start playing better baseball. Win some series. They are fine where they are right now. But they do need to start playing better ball. The good thing is, IMO, they have the players that can do it. 

[Petrey10]

13 hours ago, chibears55 said:

My wish would be that they ask Happ for a list of teams he'd agree to waive his NT for and move him.

Looking ahead to 2025, they're going to have to clear at least one outfielder spot and possibly two.

Bellinger player option (25/26)

Suzuki 2 yrs remaining

Happ 2 yrs remaining 

Prospects: 2025?

PCA, Caissie, Alcantara 

Belli moves to 1b…. There I just cleared at least one spot in the OF.

[731.4life]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Why aren’t they good enough to be buyers? So are only 4 teams in the NL buyers? Maybe they don’t make a bold move that a sure playoff team makes, but I don’t see why they would sell. They are 3 games better than last year at this time.. And last year after 93 games they were 7 games under .500. And they didn’t sell. If the question is “is now the time to trade Bellinger” the answer is absolutely not. Maybe if they are 6-8 under 500 near the deadline they do that. But not at this time. 
 

If you want to sit there and be a "small buyer" like they did last year with Cuas/Candelario, then go ahead. We're in the same boat as we were last year. We're just an average baseball team. 

We're thankful to win both games against the White Sox. The way we played against the White Sox, which to me was bad. Cubs are 7-15 in their last 22 games, which includes the two wins against the White Sox. Could easily be 6-16.

There's not a player in the trading market that would put the Cubs in the same level as Philadelphia and LA Dodgers. Bregman? Maybe because he would fill a need at 3rd defensively, but his offense is a little down this year. Alonso? Yes but don't see the Cubs willing to give up a good prospect for a rental, I think he'll end up in Seattle. Luis Robert? Heck no because you know he's injury prone, while striking out 33% of the time and he never walks. Hasn't walked 90 times yet and he's approaching 1,500 at bats.

[CubinNY]

They kind of remind me of when I used to put Lego stuff together with my son. Even following the directions, we'd inevitably make a mistake around step 4 and not figure it out until step 22 and then have to take everything apart and start back again. I believe that is where the Cubs will be by the deadline. Only they don't have much to trade out or in that will make a difference right now. 

Edited June 11, 2024 by CubinNY

[BKHoo]

41 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

They kind of remind when I use to put leggo stuff together with my son. Even following the directions, we'd inevitably make a mistake around step 4 and not figure it out until step 22 and then have to take everything apart and start back again. I believe that is where the Cubs will be by the deadline. Only they don't have much to trade out or in that will make a difference right now. 

Love the Lego reference - I have done that many times! 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, 731.4life said:

If you want to sit there and be a "small buyer" like they did last year with Cuas/Candelario, then go ahead. We're in the same boat as we were last year. We're just an average baseball team. 

We're thankful to win both games against the White Sox. The way we played against the White Sox, which to me was bad. Cubs are 7-15 in their last 22 games, which includes the two wins against the White Sox. Could easily be 6-16.

There's not a player in the trading market that would put the Cubs in the same level as Philadelphia and LA Dodgers. Bregman? Maybe because he would fill a need at 3rd defensively, but his offense is a little down this year. Alonso? Yes but don't see the Cubs willing to give up a good prospect for a rental, I think he'll end up in Seattle. Luis Robert? Heck no because you know he's injury prone, while striking out 33% of the time and he never walks. Hasn't walked 90 times yet and he's approaching 1,500 at bats.

The last three NL Champions have had 84, 87, and 88 wins. Would you not enjoy that because they didn't win 100 games?

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The last three NL Champions have had 84, 87, and 88 wins. Would you not enjoy that because they didn't win 100 games?

I completely agree. Don’t understand the references to the Cubs as not being good enough because for 5 weeks they have been playing not great baseball. Funny thing is that is probably the same people who were praising as a possible great team for playing great baseball the first 5 weeks of the season. Same guys. Same team. So which is it, are they great or do they suck? It is almost like people have never followed a baseball team thru an entire year.
My guess is they are somewhere in the middle. Pretty good. And as you just said, pretty good gives them a chance at winning the NL. 

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Why aren’t they good enough to be buyers? So are only 4 teams in the NL buyers? Maybe they don’t make a bold move that a sure playoff team makes, but I don’t see why they would sell. They are 3 games better than last year at this time.. And last year after 93 games they were 7 games under .500. And they didn’t sell. If the question is “is now the time to trade Bellinger” the answer is absolutely not. Maybe if they are 6-8 under 500 near the deadline they do that. But not at this time. 
 

What kind of buyers though ?

Meaning will they add impact players with a cost that will put them over the Threshold in which they are about 4 mil under now?

Or

Will they just add a couple low cost guys that could help ?

 

If guys start hitting again and they start putting together some Ws and are right there with the Brewers at the break, then maybe Rickett gives Hoyer the ok to go over, other then that I doubt they spend or add anyone significant.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

What kind of buyers though ?

Meaning will they add impact players with a cost that will put them over the Threshold in which they are about 4 mil under now?

Or

Will they just add a couple low cost guys that could help ?

 

If guys start hitting again and they start putting together some Ws and are right there with the Brewers at the break, then maybe Rickett gives Hoyer the ok to go over, other then that I doubt they spend or add anyone significant.

The thread is about if the Cubs should trade Bellinger now. My answer is no. I don’t think they should sell at all, and especially not now. As for what they should buy, that is a different topic. I do think if they buy, the LT threshold won’t be an issue. I think they will go over it. But again, that really isn’t the point of this discussion.