Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Seeing as the general offseason chat thread is closed, I suppose this is as good a place as any. WIth Neris getting 9M, that brings them down to roughly 46M. You figure another roughly 6 million to save for in season trades at the deadline. That leaves them 40M left. Bellinger is probably 27 of that, leaving them with 13M. What do they spend it on? I kind of feel like a trade is coming because there's really no one that it makes a lot of sense to spend it on. They don't need more SP depth(Maeda/Paxton), They don't need more 1B/DH types (Belt/JDM). 

Like Stratos said there's only ~$25m in usable money left if the first LT tier is the line.  So in that situation I'd expect one of the Boras 4 and that's it.  Maybe some shuffling at the back end of the roster (e.g dumping Wisdom or adding another optionable reliever).

If the first LT limit isn't the line, and it's the second LT tier like many of us have assumed all winter, things get a lot more interesting.  Like you said they don't need more SP depth, and I would still like Belt but it's not a need.  I think you see one of three paths, and I'll rank them most likely to least likely

1. Another reliever and a bat.  Something like Ryne Stanek + Brandon Belt.  Or a cheaper RP and a more primo bat like JDM.  Really build out the team's depth

2. One of the above and one of Brandon Woodruff/Liam Hendriks.  Basically spend some 2024 dollars on 2025 wins

3. Grab another of the Boras 4.  Grabbing a second one of these guys would make us clear division favorites, though the longer term financial situation gets a bit dicey.  Also unless Montgomery is the second guy you're kind of blowing up your draft.  So while it is the most fun I don't expect it, unless we can get one to do a short term deal

[Tryptamine]

I know there really isn't a good answer, but man I feel gross going into 2024 with Wisdom/Madrigal at 3B. 

[squally1313]

35 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I know there really isn't a good answer, but man I feel gross going into 2024 with Wisdom/Madrigal at 3B. 

There’s always this guy:

[Post Count Padder]

That's a great deal. Living in Philly I got see Neris with the Phillies plenty. He's got good stuff and the results to show it. Always thought he flew under the radar, even when he was closing. Gives the Cubs a nice late inning arm that didn't break the bank (which is important for PTR).

[chibears55]

They did something but it another non spectacular signing/trade that won't hurt them financially if he sucks.

The overall roster still don't excite me enough to feel like they're going to be anymore then a 500 or a few pennies over team next season. 

 

[Tryptamine]

If they add Bellinger, I think they're around 87-88 wins, but there's going to be a good bit of variance with unknown quantities like Busch/Imanaga and possibly PCA.

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

If they add Bellinger, I think they're around 87-88 wins, but there's going to be a good bit of variance with unknown quantities like Busch/Imanaga and possibly PCA.

Like to see another random bat along with Bellinger. Belt, Turner, or a small trade for someone. But I agree, adding Bellinger gets them to mid to upper 80’s win team.

[LBiittner]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Like to see another random bat along with Bellinger. Belt, Turner, or a small trade for someone. But I agree, adding Bellinger gets them to mid to upper 80’s win team.

 I Predicted tommy pham already. Not that I want him. Just kinda think Jed does 

[squally1313]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Like to see another random bat along with Bellinger. Belt, Turner, or a small trade for someone. But I agree, adding Bellinger gets them to mid to upper 80’s win team.

The issue with a belt, turner, JD Martinez type player is that you already have Morel, Busch, potentially Wisdom, and Mervis down in AAA in the ‘can this guy play defense anywhere besides maybe first?’ group. Yeah, I’m sure a couple of those three outside options or the 3-4 we already have are going to give you a 120+ OPS, but how are you possibly going to construct a roster/bench and divvy up ABs to get to the correct option in a reasonably quick manner? 

Basically, to me, signing a veteran bat kinda necessitates a Busch or Morel for pitching trade, and while I’ve been annoyingly persistent on the ‘the offseason isn’t over’ train….it is late January. 

[Randall Simon]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

The issue with a belt, turner, JD Martinez type player is that you already have Morel, Busch, potentially Wisdom, and Mervis down in AAA in the ‘can this guy play defense anywhere besides maybe first?’ group. Yeah, I’m sure a couple of those three outside options or the 3-4 we already have are going to give you a 120+ OPS, but how are you possibly going to construct a roster/bench and divvy up ABs to get to the correct option in a reasonably quick manner? 

Basically, to me, signing a veteran bat kinda necessitates a Busch or Morel for pitching trade, and while I’ve been annoyingly persistent on the ‘the offseason isn’t over’ train….it is late January. 

We've seen many times before, quality free agents sign in February, after spring training begins. I think a couple of these Boras clients will sign after Valentines Day. 

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, Randall Simon said:

We've seen many times before, quality free agents sign in February, after spring training begins. I think a couple of these Boras clients will sign after Valentines Day. 

Agreed, I just don’t know if any of those names mentioned represent a significant upgrade to our in house bats. If you want to replace morel with belt/turner, and use morels team control and potential second base ability to bring in the type of pitching not available on the market right now, awesome. But it represents an extra step and we’re under three weeks from pitchers reporting. 

[Bertz]

I didn't realize the 40 man was already full.  It'll probably be a straightforward Rucker or Kilian DFA to accommodate Neris but we're probably at an elevated likelihood for a trade until we see that happen.

 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I didn't realize the 40 man was already full.  It'll probably be a straightforward Rucker or Kilian DFA to accommodate Neris but we're probably at an elevated likelihood for a trade until we see that happen.

 

True. Probably a simple transaction. But this is where you can see 2 or 3 guys from the 40 man traded for one guy. No idea who. But then again. We didn’t see Busch coming either. 

[Post Count Padder]

I also didn't realize the 40 man was full but the obvious move is a Rucker DFA. He's given us some good innings but he's nothing special and probably would pass through waivers.

[CubUgly]

On 1/27/2024 at 8:56 PM, LBiittner said:

 I Predicted tommy pham already. Not that I want him. Just kinda think Jed does 

Yeah, Pham has some talent, but he's been a locker room issue at times over his career. 

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Yeah, Pham has some talent, but he's been a locker room issue at times over his career. 

There is no Pham connection with the Cubs. Just a random name brought up. 

[Bertz]

 

 

[CubinNY]

Just now, Bertz said:

 

 

i figured Rucker would be the man without a chair. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

This should come as no surprise to anyone, but I have no idea who Michael Rucker is. Swear to god I thought he was black until now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

some real 'large boulder the size of a small boulder' vibes with that impairment language

[squally1313]

We should probably pencil that into 2025 when we think about future dollars available right? 90 pitchers threw more than 60 games last year, he's essentially done it the last 5 years (when you prorate out 2020).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

We should probably pencil that into 2025 when we think about future dollars available right? 90 pitchers threw more than 60 games last year, he's essentially done it the last 5 years (when you prorate out 2020).

Kinda?  Only 2 Cubs hit 60 appearances last year(Merryweather & Leiter Jr), so it's far from a foregone conclusion.  Basically any DL stint is likely to cause him to miss(see Fulmer and Alzolay w/ 58 appearances), and the language means that if the DL stint comes at EOY then it doesn't matter on that point either.  So it's a bet that Neris has a full healthy season and also doesn't crater performance wise.  To make up percentages, the odds of that are probably not less than 50%, but probably not more than 65-70%?

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

some real 'large boulder the size of a small boulder' vibes with that impairment language

Sounds like they just don't want to bring back a pitcher if they're injured.  I don't think it means anything.  He could have a great year and blow out his arm in the last few weeks and still gets the option without that caveat.

[cbbryan]

On 2/1/2024 at 3:09 PM, Ding Dong Johnson said:

This should come as no surprise to anyone, but I have no idea who Michael Rucker is. Swear to god I thought he was black until now.

I think you're confusing him with Darius....

[Stratos]

On 2/1/2024 at 3:46 PM, CubinNY said:

i figured Rucker would be the man without a chair. 

I said earlier in the offseason that this team has failed if Rucker ends up on the 26 man at any point this season.  So we're going in the right direction lol