Cubs trading for Michael Busch & Yency Almonte (for Ferris & Hope)

[Bertz]

As a lefty who can handle the ball up Busch is a good offensive complement to Matt Chapman...

[Backtobanks]

Rumor has it that the Cubs are going to try Busch at 1B.

 

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Thanks! Just you wait for Michael Busch. I fear I'm just doing some shiny new toy syndrome stuff, but I was really encouraged with his progression from 2022 to 2023. 

Looking forward to reading 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, CubbyBlue2008 said:

Passan saying the hope is he plays 3B. I wonder if that’s him guessing or if it’s sourced.

Well he mainly played there when he was called to the Dodgers last year.  Interesting thing is he's only played 20 games at 1B at all levels as a pro, but i'm sure he's an option there too.  I think the main thing is that the Cubs have options at 3B, 1B, and DH now with Morel, Busch, Mervis, and Wisdom, plus Madrigal as a defensive option at 3B.  They can platoon these guys based on the matchups.

Hopefully Morel/Busch are able to hold down 3B, at least until Shaw is ready, and gotta think somebody between everyone mentioned is going to be dealt at some point when that happens, if not this offseason.  40-man is tight.  Mastrobuoni might get put through waivers or dealt.

 

Edited January 11, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

31 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I actually think the two are quite different once you get beyond the surface. Did a deep dive on Mervis in Triple-A the other day and just got done with an article that should post shortly on Busch. Conclusions: I fear Mervis is a Quaruple-A player due to his recent downturn in contact%, especially at the Triple-A level. I don't see the same concerns with Busch. 

Just read your Mervis article, looking forward to the Busch one.  Hopefully whatever changes Busch made that led to the big drop in K% in AAA last year hold.  The 26% he had in AA/AAA previous wasn't great and he was an older prospect.

Edited January 11, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

As a lefty who can handle the ball up Busch is a good offensive complement to Matt Chapman...

I think this trade has some implications for both Chapman and Bellinger.  If we include Shaw in the equation, if Chapman is signed there's a logjam at 3B going forward.  If Bellinger is signed he can play CF this season but where does he play once PCA is up if we also have Morel/Busch/Mervis at 1B and Shaw probably taking 3B?

Morel/Busch/Mervis can always platoon at DH, but then we also have Canario, Caissie, McGeary that may be ready next year and may DH as well.  If Bellinger is signed gotta think someone is dealt at some point.  It's harder to see Bellinger at 1B now longterm unless someone is traded.  If he is signed we could see him slide into a corner OF spot and they do something else with e.g. Suzuki, including a trade.

Really intrigued now to see what they do with CF this season.  Metrics show Canario's running speed is below average so maybe he's not the best RHB pairing for Tauchman in CF if they pass on Bellinger.  He played RF in winter ball.

[Bertz]

Just thinking about this a bit more.  I don't expect Jed to push his chips in this aggressively, but this fits what we think payroll will be and is probably one of the five best position player groups in baseball, no?  Pretty clear #1 defense and top 10 offense?

LF - Happ

DH - Morel

RF - Suzuki

CF  - Bellinger

3B - Chapman

SS - Swanson

1B - Busch

C - Gomes

2B - Hoerner

With a top 3 farm system ready to back it up.  The pitching staff is probably two guys light, but then again the farm will help there too plus the defense will make the whole thing play up.

Edited January 11, 2024 by Bertz

[Derwood]

I feel like we've seen dozens of A-Ball "high upside! future of the team!" guys fizzle out over the years. Give me MLB (or close to it) all day

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

 

 

Fun fact:  Caus' slider had one of the highest whiff rates of any pitch in the MLB last season.  Around 60% if I remember correctly.  That and the funky angle are probably what the Cubs liked.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Fun fact:  Caus' slider had one of the highest whiff rates of any pitch in the MLB last season.  Around 60% if I remember correctly.  That and the funky angle are probably what the Cubs liked.

I like him a lot.  He had some high profile blowup but he basically had to remake himself on the fly.  If he'd gotten 4-6 weeks at Iowa people wouldn't have such a sour taste in their mouth about him.

[Irrelevant Dude]

16 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If Bellinger is signed he can play CF this season but where does he play once PCA is up if we also have Morel/Busch/Mervis at 1B and Shaw probably taking 3B?

IF all those things play out, I would also look to RF as a future option.  Seiya is already not a great defender and he isn't going to get any better as he ages.  Bellinger would be very good in RF and Suzuki could get a majority of the DH at bats.  That is also assuming everyone stays healthy.  As long as Bellinger is open to moving around, it won't be difficult to find him a place to play.

[PackLandVA]

Don't know how often Dodgers/Friedman "win" trades, but they don't seem to lose too many (Yordano, possibly Cruz).  I really like Ferris as an up-and-comer, but he's still a few years away as mentioned. And a lot can happen to change a prospect's value between A Ball and the Bigs.

Edited January 12, 2024 by PackLandVA

[Petrey10]

5 hours ago, CubbyBlue2008 said:

Passan saying the hope is he plays 3B. I wonder if that’s him guessing or if it’s sourced.

I mean I just think it’s weird this guy has more PT at 3B and we are hoping he can play 3b when Morel it’s basically just not even possible….

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

I mean I just think it’s weird this guy has more PT at 3B and we are hoping he can play 3b when Morel it’s basically just not even possible….

It’s more weird that people have him at 1st when he hasn’t played 1st. They basically have 4 2nd baseman and Wisdom. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

I mean I just think it’s weird this guy has more PT at 3B and we are hoping he can play 3b when Morel it’s basically just not even possible….

Well if a lot of the concern with him lies in his arm, Madrigal just showed he could provide value there even with a noodle. I think they might not believe in Morel's instincts there, on top of the arm slot concerns.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Just thinking about this a bit more.  I don't expect Jed to push his chips in this aggressively, but this fits what we think payroll will be and is probably one of the five best position player groups in baseball, no?  Pretty clear #1 defense and top 10 offense?

LF - Happ

DH - Morel

RF - Suzuki

CF  - Bellinger

3B - Chapman

SS - Swanson

1B - Busch

C - Gomes

2B - Hoerner

With a top 3 farm system ready to back it up.  The pitching staff is probably two guys light, but then again the farm will help there too plus the defense will make the whole thing play up.

This is a narrow path and I also don't think Jed would play it this way, however, if you went to Boras with 4/90 for Chapman he'd have to think real hard about accepting, right?  At which point, without the same urgency Bellinger's market possibly tanks further and he might even struggle to get the Correa 3 year pillow deal?  And if Bellinger is potentially looking at 1 year deals, you have (probably) Cody's favored destination on a duration that Jed will have no qualms about, and with the money to give him in the vicinity of 30M if that's what it takes...

The main problem with this is it's backwards in terms of player preference, and even for all his defense-mongering and long-term hesitancy, Jed seems to have a greater focus on Bellinger than Chapman too.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It’s more weird that people have him at 1st when he hasn’t played 1st. They basically have 4 2nd baseman and Wisdom. 

He was a 1B in college(in the ACC, which if I pull out my OMC conversion chart is High A equivalent?), so it's not a completely foreign position to him even if he hasn't had as many pro reps.

[Rex Buckingham]

Busch is a potentially exciting bat, Almonte could be a good value in the pen. If you're going to trade prospects, A-ball pitcher is the bucket I'd most prefer to trade from. And a HS bat who hasn't made it out of the Complex league (not that he should have, just that his career is only just underway) is certainly no sure thing either.

It seems like a smart move overall, trading future hope for (hopefully) short-term production

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

IF all those things play out, I would also look to RF as a future option.  Seiya is already not a great defender and he isn't going to get any better as he ages.  Bellinger would be very good in RF and Suzuki could get a majority of the DH at bats.  That is also assuming everyone stays healthy.  As long as Bellinger is open to moving around, it won't be difficult to find him a place to play.

Yes that's a possibility.  They could also trade Suzuki next year.  He has a NTC but so did Darvish.  Guys like Caissie, McGeary etc could be ready by next season most likely and could slot in as much cheaper DH options.  We could reload the farm a bit with a Suzuki trade.

I see a lot of potential for Hoyer's plans to be more sustainable than Theo's if we can trade guys here and there for prospects.  They can always be replaced with other free agents if needed.  The Cubs are already coming up on a surplus of good talent at different positions where some will be dealt.  A much better problem to have than not enough talent.

Edited January 12, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

I mean I just think it’s weird this guy has more PT at 3B and we are hoping he can play 3b when Morel it’s basically just not even possible….

I think Morel has a better shot to be a better defender at 3B.  He has better tools.  He has quickness, athleticism, and arm strength, he just needs polish and consistent reps and to dial down the throws a notch.  He does everything at 100% effort.  But Busch also gives them LH/RH options.  He can play 1B or DH, it doesn't really matter, Counsell will figure out where to play them all.  It's good to have multiple options and depth at positions.

Edited January 12, 2024 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

How about if the Cubs turn Busch into Naylor. Pretty equal value. Guardians play him at 2nd and cut some salary. Cubs get a ML first baseman. I like Busch, but he doesn’t have a position. Why not get a proven player for him? I know they won’t do this, but would this make them better? And why wouldn’t the Guardians do it? 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

How about if the Cubs turn Busch into Naylor. Pretty equal value. Guardians play him at 2nd and cut some salary. Cubs get a ML first baseman. I like Busch, but he doesn’t have a position. Why not get a proven player for him? I know they won’t do this, but would this make them better? And why wouldn’t the Guardians do it? 

I'd find it hard to believe that Busch and Naylor have equal value. One has proven it, and at a high level, the other still has not. Even when it's 6 years of Busch vs 3 years of Naylor, it still feels unlikely to me, especially when they're pretty similar age wise.

[squally1313]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

 I like Busch, but he doesn’t have a position. 

Not a shot, but this is really funny coming from someone who's been a huge Morel proponent around here.

[Michael Busch Light]

41 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Not a shot, but this is really funny coming from someone who's been a huge Morel proponent around here.

I do think Morel has the tools to be a good defender while Busch probably has a ceiling of slightly below average. 

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Michael Busch Light said:

I do think Morel has the tools to be a good defender while Busch probably has a ceiling of slightly below average. 

If he had any potential to be a good defender, he probably should have become one by now.