Who's gaga for Imanaga? - It's the Cubs! Cubs sign Imanaga per Heyman/Nightengale

[Irrelevant Dude]

I like the creatively-structured contract.  There isn't a ton of downside for the Cubs .  In a perfect world, he pitches great and they extend the deal to 5 years at a very affordable $16M AAV.

[LBiittner]

21 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Imanaga has been staying in Chicago since Christmas. It's where his base of operations were. 

Per Jesse Rogers

This is a very important tidbit that a good reporter should've uncovered prior to the days leading before the signing. 

J/k lol 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, LBiittner said:

This is a very important tidbit that a good reporter should've uncovered prior to the days leading before the signing. 

J/k lol 

I think it's kind of cool he was able to basically live in Chicago for two weeks without anyone really noticing. 

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think it's kind of cool he was able to basically live in Chicago for two weeks without anyone really noticing. 

Zero undercover sleuthing in chitown

[SOFNR]

36 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Ok, so year 3 plays at $11.5? Then we repeat in the last year. Or they can go to 5 and add $38.5M for these 2 years. (Difference between what he earned first 3 and the $80m option.) So the Cubs get that option again after year 3 or does he only get the option to opt out of the last year? 

My understanding is that the process is the same as after Year 2. The Cubs will have the opportunity to lock him into the fifth year. If they don't he can opt out.

[SOFNR]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think it's kind of cool he was able to basically live in Chicago for two weeks without anyone really noticing. 

That's pretty funny. I'm thinking he must've been fairly interested in the Cubs to make Chicago his base of operations.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, SOFNR said:

I don't believe the team can opt out early. The Cubs would have an option to extend to 5/80 after 2 years, and if they didn't Imamaga could opt out. Same after 3 years. But if he doesn't opt out he'd stay for the full 4/53.

The 5th year option adds 27m.  If he pitches well he basically either gets a 5th year with a high AAV to make up for the initial low AAV or he can opt-out if the Cubs decline.  If he sucks he still gets 53m minimum.  This is a pretty good deal for him, he'll earn what he's worth. Cubs are very likely only going to pay him 5/53 if he isn't very good and can't earn more than 13m AAV in FA by opting out.

Edited January 11, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, SOFNR said:

That's pretty funny. I'm thinking he must've been fairly interested in the Cubs to make Chicago his base of operations.

Central location?

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

This is a pretty good deal for both sides and I wonder if we see this sort of thing more often for high variance guys.

If I read this right, then basically:

- If Shota's good or great it's 5/80

- If Shota's average-ish it's 2/30

- If Shota's bad/hurt it's 4/53

But here's the thing, if he's good or great they can still decline the 5th year and he almost certainly becomes a FA.  It's possible with this FO if they don't like the age profile for an extra 2-3 years.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

But here's the thing, if he's good or great they can still decline the 5th year and he almost certainly becomes a FA.  It's possible with this FO if they don't like the age profile for an extra 2-3 years.

There are worse things than letting a 32+ SP go a year too early, especially since as far as I can tell they'd be allowed to QO him.  But in that outcome adding 1 year and ~4M to his LT number is probably not a very big deterrent, and he'd have some trade value too.

[JHBulls]

Barely been on the Internet for 24 hours and greeted with this news. Very excited for this signing. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

There are worse things than letting a 32+ SP go a year too early, especially since as far as I can tell they'd be allowed to QO him.  But in that outcome adding 1 year and ~4M to his LT number is probably not a very big deterrent, and he'd have some trade value too.

If he takes the full 5 years at 80m he's making 16m AAV.  If he's pitching well they'd be very tempted to keep him another 2-3 years.

[Jfoley89]

10 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Okay, well I guess that clear thing ups but I completely disagree with the sentiment. This team needs high end players. I have doubts about Steele repeating  and I have next to zero expectations for Hendricks in 2024. 
 

pushing disappointing players down the depth chat is a good thing. I don’t care how much they cost. 

Which sounds great until they run Madrigal and Mervis out for 162 games. If this team really believes they've cracked the code for pitching, and they aren't going to spend Dodgers money, then what's the plan? Hope Shaw or Murray are ready this year?

[Jason Ross]

The Imanaga deal got a little more complex with some reporting from Patrick Mooney today. There will be a limited NTC (four teams) for the first two years of the deal. At any point in which the Cubs extend to 5/$80m, this will also trigger a full NTC for Imanaga. 

The Athletic

[Jfoley89]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Imanaga deal got a little more complex with some reporting from Patrick Mooney today. There will be a limited NTC (four teams) for the first two years of the deal. At any point in which the Cubs extend to 5/$80m, this will also trigger a full NTC for Imanaga. 

The Athletic

Still a steal if you think about what he was projected.  Hopefully the injury concerns are overblown

[LBiittner]

7 minutes ago, Jfoley89 said:

Still a steal if you think about what he was projected.  Hopefully the injury concerns are overblown

His price looks even more palatable when you compare his $ to another cub free agent, ednowin jackson, signed 11 years ago to a 4year $52 million deal by Theo.

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Imanaga deal got a little more complex with some reporting from Patrick Mooney today. There will be a limited NTC (four teams) for the first two years of the deal. At any point in which the Cubs extend to 5/$80m, this will also trigger a full NTC for Imanaga. 

The Athletic

Would really love to know which 4 teams he wanted included on the NTC

[Bertz]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

But here's the thing, if he's good or great they can still decline the 5th year and he almost certainly becomes a FA.  It's possible with this FO if they don't like the age profile for an extra 2-3 years.

Why would they decline the option if he's good?  We live in a world where Sean Manaea got 2/26 after showing a new pitch and some brief strong performance.  If Shota's putting up 3 WAR seasons no one's going to flinch about holding onto him at 3/50.  He'll be 32 not 42.

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Jfoley89 said:

Which sounds great until they run Madrigal and Mervis out for 162 games. If this team really believes they've cracked the code for pitching, and they aren't going to spend Dodgers money, then what's the plan? Hope Shaw or Murray are ready this year?

I think they think they are a year or two away from competing. But even when they think they are there I wouldn't expect them to break the LT threshold for multiple years. The Cubs have a lot of "nice" players in the minors. But their farm system is a lot like their major league team. They are lacking impact players. Maybe Horton, Shaw, and Alcantara will be those guys. Shaw has hit everywhere but we don't know if he has a position. Horton has been lights out, but he's not pitched many innings. Alcantara is already on the clock and has a lot of development to do. 

I can't speak for anyone else, I'm cautiously optimistic and also at the same time pessimistic, if that is possible. What I mean is that they do have a lot of apparent talent coming up from the farm, but perhaps not enough to be a perennial playoff contender. And they have demonstrated no willingness to want to be a perennial playoff contender through free agency. Maybe it will change once they think they have most of the pieces in place, but then they have to have the right players in FA. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

19 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I think they think they are a year or two away from competing. But even when they think they are there I wouldn't expect them to break the LT threshold for multiple years.

I think this is backwards, I think they believe they had a competing team last year that was unlucky, and so they view maintaining that roster's quality in the rotation and lineup and upgrading the bullpen is a step forward, plus they have more impact coming from the farm this year than last.  The LT point has been beaten to death so I don't want to relitigate it, but I think Bertz said it best that if they were not planning on going over the LT this year, then it makes little sense for them to not creep over it with their deadline moves last year in maximizing their playoff chances.  Maybe they don't do it, I understand skepticism, but unless they strike out with multiple bats(as well as a contingency like pivoting to Montgomery), I believe they're going over this year.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Jfoley89 said:

Still a steal if you think about what he was projected.  Hopefully the injury concerns are overblown

Seems like everyone tends to overvalue what most of these Japanese players end up signing for.  Senga's contract last year was also lower than expected.  Seiya was somewhat cheap too.  I guess teams are a bit conservative given the unknowns with the players.

[CubinNY]

24 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think this is backwards, I think they believe they had a competing team last year that was unlucky, and so they view maintaining that roster's quality in the rotation and lineup and upgrading the bullpen is a step forward, plus they have more impact coming from the farm this year than last.  The LT point has been beaten to death so I don't want to relitigate it, but I think Bertz said it best that if they were not planning on going over the LT this year, then it makes little sense for them to not creep over it with their deadline moves last year in maximizing their playoff chances.  Maybe they don't do it, I understand skepticism, but unless they strike out with multiple bats(as well as a contingency like pivoting to Montgomery), I believe they're going over this year.

I suppose we are talking about different degrees of competitiveness. I should have specified that. The McPhail/Hendry philosophy of competing within the division is not what I'm talking about. It's also something I hope they aspire to rise above. 

[Tryptamine]

Watched through that WBC performance and a couple things stood out to me. First and foremost, he absolutely loves that tailing fastball up and in against righties. He throws it often and it sets up break stuff low and away. Secondly, he doesn't seem to do a lot of challenging in the zone. There's a lot of pitching to the corners and the stuff over the plate, got hit pretty hard. It's only a couple innings in one start, so you can't make too much of it, but it sure seems like a guy who is going to be make or break depending on if he can spot his pitches or not.

[PeanutPunch33]

23 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Jed's best days were when he was getting coffee for Theo.  

How about now 

[Tim]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Watched through that WBC performance and a couple things stood out to me. First and foremost, he absolutely loves that tailing fastball up and in against righties. He throws it often and it sets up break stuff low and away. Secondly, he doesn't seem to do a lot of challenging in the zone. There's a lot of pitching to the corners and the stuff over the plate, got hit pretty hard. It's only a couple innings in one start, so you can't make too much of it, but it sure seems like a guy who is going to be make or break depending on if he can spot his pitches or not.

It's also just a couple of innings when facing a lineup with Trout, Betts, Goldy, etc.