The Bears are on the clock; Packers Week

[raw]

1 hour ago, scarey said:

There seems to be a sentiment that you either fall into two camps:

1. I believe in Justin Fields

2. I think Williams/Maye will be better for the team long term

I'd like to enter the third option:

3. I don't want to miss out on MHJs HOF career in Chicago for a rookie QB that the Bears probably ruin anyway

The thing about 3 is that the Harrison Jr. thing is probably the worst thing that can happen. He's phenomenal. This has nothing to do with how good Harrison is. But it would be very stupid for the Bears to select him at 1, because you either take a QB or you trade to someone who is willing to give you a bunch to take a QB. And unless you trade back only 1 or 2 spots, you aren't getting MHJ. And the issue with trading back 1 or 2 spots is that you probably aren't getting the huge trade package you want from one of those teams.

I don't think you get a future 1 or recoup the 2nd from the Sweat trade from the 2nd or 3rd spot, unless the team at 3 is extremely desperate and absolutely HAS to have Williams or Maye and nobody else will suffice, and IDK if anyone is really that desperate. 

[WrigleyField 22]

18 minutes ago, raw said:

The thing about 3 is that the Harrison Jr. thing is probably the worst thing that can happen. He's phenomenal. This has nothing to do with how good Harrison is. But it would be very stupid for the Bears to select him at 1, because you either take a QB or you trade to someone who is willing to give you a bunch to take a QB. And unless you trade back only 1 or 2 spots, you aren't getting MHJ. And the issue with trading back 1 or 2 spots is that you probably aren't getting the huge trade package you want from one of those teams.

I don't think you get a future 1 or recoup the 2nd from the Sweat trade from the 2nd or 3rd spot, unless the team at 3 is extremely desperate and absolutely HAS to have Williams or Maye and nobody else will suffice, and IDK if anyone is really that desperate. 

I think you could conceivably get a 1 to 3 trade package that makes you feel just fine about passing up a bigger haul, but you also have to literally use the leverage of other trade opportunities to maybe even get that and there's no guarantee you will.  Some fans are so narrowly focused on MHJ I think they'd take like two thirds and be extatic though.  Then on the other hand I saw a well known Bears Twitter guy put it in terms of MHJ, Multiple seconds, and a future first and that is probably quite a bit high.  But suddenly, yea, it starts to be one tempting over a bigger package (assuming you've decided against Williams/Maye for some reason, and I really don't know there is a valid reason for that)

Edited January 3, 2024 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

2 hours ago, scarey said:

There seems to be a sentiment that you either fall into two camps:

1. I believe in Justin Fields

2. I think Williams/Maye will be better for the team long term

I'd like to enter the third option:

3. I don't want to miss out on MHJs HOF career in Chicago for a rookie QB that the Bears probably ruin anyway

Is there really much better to mess up the QB choice than having MHJ just be our version of Megatron?

[WrigleyField 22]

 

A good summary of biggest trade up overpays of all time, fwiw. His methodology is a little inconsistent with how to evaluate trades based on where picks actually fell (hence why the RG3 one is so lopsided as they ended up giving a future 2nd overall), but a good reference for measuring possible hauls against precedent.

[minnesotacubsfan]

45 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Is there really much better to mess up the QB choice than having MHJ just be our version of Megatron?

Who cares, a HoF-projected wr bodes very good things for this team and its defense (and horsefeathers ya’ll, JF too)

 

 

hes Marvin HARRISON jr, not megatron

 

 

 

 

[NorthsideAvenger]

If you are not 100% sure that is that guy, you have to trade the pick. Given that kind of value we are looking at for 1/1, I'd say trade is a no-brainer, imo.

Edited January 3, 2024 by NorthsideAvenger

[scarey]

1 hour ago, raw said:

The thing about 3 is that the Harrison Jr. thing is probably the worst thing that can happen. He's phenomenal. This has nothing to do with how good Harrison is. But it would be very stupid for the Bears to select him at 1, because you either take a QB or you trade to someone who is willing to give you a bunch to take a QB. And unless you trade back only 1 or 2 spots, you aren't getting MHJ. And the issue with trading back 1 or 2 spots is that you probably aren't getting the huge trade package you want from one of those teams.

I don't think you get a future 1 or recoup the 2nd from the Sweat trade from the 2nd or 3rd spot, unless the team at 3 is extremely desperate and absolutely HAS to have Williams or Maye and nobody else will suffice, and IDK if anyone is really that desperate. 

I think we need to see how the pre-draft buzz builds up the value of guys like Daniels and McCarthy. If the draft order shakes out as it stands for the current top 3, the Bears are in an excellent position to dictate a huge overpay on a trade down.

The value from for either Williams or Maye is going to be extremely tempting by comparison, and I won't be surprised if New England or Washington dish out a future first plus more to put themselves in position to draft their guy.

It's why, more than anything, I think it's important that the Bears take Fields 5th year option and then take bids from everybody even if it's up until the draft. Either you hold on to Fields and trade him later if you have to, or you get blown away by a trade offer for either Fields or the 1st overall pick.

To me, cashing in a trade for Fields for anything less than a 2nd rounder is a mistake that takes away the option for somebody to make you a ridiculous offer for the 1st overall pick.

Edited January 3, 2024 by scarey

[WrigleyField 22]

9 minutes ago, scarey said:

I think we need to see how the pre-draft buzz builds up the value of guys like Daniels and McCarthy. If the draft order shakes out as it stands for the current top 3, the Bears are in an excellent position to dictate a huge overpay on a trade down.

The value from for either Williams or Maye is going to be extremely tempting by comparison, and I won't be surprised if New England or Washington dish out a future first plus more to put themselves in position to draft their guy.

It's why, more than anything, I think it's important that the Bears take Fields 5th year option and then take bids from everybody even if it's up until the draft. Either you hold on to Fields and trade him later if you have to, or you get blown away by a trade offer for either Fields or the 1st overall pick.

To me, cashing in a trade for Fields for anything less than a 2nd rounder is a mistake that takes away the option for somebody to make you a ridiculous offer for the 1st overall pick.

I don't find any particular risk in picking up Fields option, but they also don't have to make any decision on it before the draft.  Unless they're literally trying to turn it into leverage in trade negotiations (skeptical it would matter anywaya), it's meaningless since the deadline is after the draft.

[Tryptamine]

I've seen as much as 2 firsts, a day 2 pick and a good player on a good contract suggested as a return for the Bears while they stay in the top 5. That's pretty crazy. Imagine a deal at #3 with NE where the Bears get 1.3, '24 2nd,  '25 1st and Christian Barmore.

You'd still get MHJ at #3. You get to take Dallas Turner at 10 and between him and Barmore suddenly your dline is very good and paired with a very good secondary. Then use the 2nd on bpa and you still have 2 firsts next year to further improve the team or consolidate them to trade up for a new QB.

Edited January 3, 2024 by Tryptamine

[BigSlick]

As much as I absolutely love MHJr and would love to see him on this team, you cannot just go and draft him first overall. It's the worst move by value possible. 

If you can get him in a trade down, do it. Otherwise, it is what it is. You can't keep the first overall and not get a QB - you're missing out on like, 4-5 blue chip players you can get with a trade down. 

Edited January 3, 2024 by BigSlick

[scarey]

17 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

As much as I absolutely love MHJr and would love to see him on this team, you cannot just go and draft him first overall. It's the worst move by value possible. 

If you can get him in a trade down, do it. Otherwise, it is what it is. You can't keep the first overall and not get a QB - you're missing out on like, 4-5 blue chip players you can get with a trade down. 

If my post lead anybody to believe I'm advocating for selecting him 1st overall, than let me set the record straight. The MHJ option is inclusive of a trade down.

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I've seen as much as 2 firsts, a day 2 pick and a good player on a good contract suggested as a return for the Bears while they stay in the top 5. That's pretty crazy. Imagine a deal at #3 with NE where the Bears get 1.3, '24 2nd,  '25 1st and Christian Barmore.

You'd still get MHJ at #3. You get to take Dallas Turner at 10 and between him and Barmore suddenly your dline is very good and paired with a very good secondary. Then use the 2nd on bpa and you still have 2 firsts next year to further improve the team or consolidate them to trade up for a new QB.

While the Bears overall cap leverage remains very strong, at some point these "get a player back" returns interest me a lot less, especially if they're gonna be due for an extension in a year.  DJ Moore was inspired and Montez Sweat was probably somewhat necessary. But I kind of just want all the picks.  If it's a player it almost needs to be a 2023 first rounder for me.  Super cheap for 3 years and then a cost controlled option. Maybe a 2022 first rounder if good enough player or really good fit, but since they can't necessarily control the team target, I don't want force a poor fit on a player return.  I'm not even sure how to value Barmore in this specific example. I played around with it on PFF mock draft just for kicks and I can't get the trade engine to give me more than like a 4th (????)

 

[CubinNY]

One of my meathead friends actually made a good point the other day. If they trade down and Fields doesn't work out, they still have all the future picks they get as well as the players they drafted with the new picks. It's made me seriously think about it. 

Even if Fields sucks next year, they will, all things being equal, have a stronger supporting team for whoever becomes the QB. 

[BigbadB]

MHJ absolutely cannot be the first pick. The receiver class is way too strong to simply take the easy way out and select a receiver with the first pick, while ignoring the value the first pick brings to desperate teams. Outside of that, I think I'll be fine just letting Poles work his magic. He either:

A) wants "his" QB and uses that pick on the best QB in the draft, while also trading Fields for pick(s).

B) soft trades down one or two spots, picks up picks and takes MHJ.

C) take a haul of picks to move down several places, then draft among the top remaining WR and one of the second tier QB's to be Justin's understudy/replacement.

I'm actually down with any of those scenarios, although I'd probably still lean towards (A). 

Fields dropped back and surveyed the field better against Atl. He made more accurate throws. He tested the secondary numerous times. He limited his turnovers, and he put points on the board. If he played like that all year, I don't think we would even be considering a QB in this upcoming draft. And Fields having the team and fan support might make it hard to just trade him away if he has a great game against GB. 

And finally, Claypool ended up with less yards receiving with Miami than he had with the Bears this year. I loved the trade at the time, but boy does that one look horrible now. Hell, Claypool may just be out of football entirely next year.

[raw]

59 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

One of my meathead friends actually made a good point the other day. If they trade down and Fields doesn't work out, they still have all the future picks they get as well as the players they drafted with the new picks. It's made me seriously think about it. 

Even if Fields sucks next year, they will, all things being equal, have a stronger supporting team for whoever becomes the QB. 

The problem with that line of thinking is that you PROBABLY aren't getting the #1 pick again, which is the best spot as you can literally pick any QB you want. And even if you happen to trade with the team that happens to have the worst record again, you PROBABLY aren't getting a prospect as good as Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

That's not to say you can't pick at 10 and get a QB better than those guys become, but your margin for error decreases the further down you go in the draft and the lesser heralded you go down the prospect tiers.

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, raw said:

The problem with that line of thinking is that you PROBABLY aren't getting the #1 pick again, which is the best spot as you can literally pick any QB you want. And even if you happen to trade with the team that happens to have the worst record again, you PROBABLY aren't getting a prospect as good as Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

That's not to say you can't pick at 10 and get a QB better than those guys become, but your margin for error decreases the further down you go in the draft and the lesser heralded you go down the prospect tiers.

Yes, it's a gamble for sure. Poles has to be sure if he's keeping Fields. I'd take the best QB, but I understand the logic of trading down. 

My friend was going on about the locker room being "Fields locker room" and a bunch of other stuff that I just rolled my eyes at while I was talking to him on the phone. 

[BigSlick]

One thing I think most Bears fans can agree with: King Poles is back. Dude has undeniably done a good job with the roster so far.

now…the coaching staff….is another question 

[NorthsideAvenger]

From Fowler/Cronin of ESPN:

Quote

“If the Bears traded the first pick, the return could be immense. Several executives agree Chicago could net more than it did in the Panthers trade, and from a prospective trade partner already picking in the top five. Those execs believe the price to get to No. 1 could be two future first-rounders on top of this year’s pick, along with a variation of a Day 2 pick and/or a premium veteran player on a manageable contract.”

If Poles anything near what this is suggesting, then you know Poles will be trading the pick. With a few teams desperate for a QB, I don't see a scenario in which the Bears keep the pick. 

[jersey cubs fan]

36 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

I don't see a scenario in which the Bears keep the pick. 

I mean, the most obvious scenario is the most likely one, that they are ready to move on from Fields. How is it possible not to see that scenario?

[Tryptamine]

Assuming the Bears trade the #1. The Bears would have 2 1sts in '25 and at least 2 2nds. They have enough draft capital to trade up for whatever QB they want if it became necessary. It's likely no one is as hyped as Williams, but I think that's an easy risk to take if the going price for '24 1.1 is anywhere near the rumors.

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I mean, the most obvious scenario is the most likely one, that they are ready to move on from Fields. How is it possible not to see that scenario?

I don't think them taking a QB is the most likely scenario. It's not so much that Poles is infatuated with Fields, but that I think he's probably ok with Fields and would love the haul he can get for 1.1. 

[Old Style]

Lol @ thinking Williams or Maye are generational talents that far exceed what would be available in the 2025 draft. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

9 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I mean, the most obvious scenario is the most likely one, that they are ready to move on from Fields. How is it possible not to see that scenario?

Because I'm not sure they are ready to move on from Fields.

[CubinNY]

6 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Because I'm not sure they are ready to move on from Fields.

If they evaluate his performance objectively, they should be ready to move on. He's a great athlete, but not a great or even a good QB. Once he slows down a step, he's going to be even worse. There is a lot of temptation though. 

[raw]

8 minutes ago, Old Style said:

Lol @ thinking Williams or Maye are generational talents that far exceed what would be available in the 2025 draft. 

Who said anything about generational? They clearly far exceed what will be available in the 2025 draft. Like there wasn't this much thought that the Bears would take Bryce Young last year and he was a pretty consensus #1 pick last year. I know there are differences in the rookie clock, etc this year, but any QB in the 2025 is either not good enough to come out in the 2024 draft to be drafted as high as Williams or Maye, or is not eligible. If you know of any non-eligible QBs thought of as highly as these guys right now, you need to tell me the Powerball numbers as well.