Battle of beleaguered Bears braintrusts

[UMFan83]

I'm not doing this because I have any hope of making the playoffs, but because I'm a nerd about these things  

 

Here are the ways the Bears can be eliminated this weekend:

1. Lose (or tie) to Falcons

2. Both the Rams and Seahawks win

3. Both Rams and Packers win

4. Both the Rams and Vikings win

5. Both the Seahawks and Packers win

6. Both the Seahawks and Vikings win

 

To make the playoffs the Bears would need this entire scenario to happen: Bears win last 2 games and Seahawks, Rams and Saints all lose their final 2 games.  For some reason the Vikings and Packers results don't play into this, guessing because there are 2 playoff spots at play and the Packers would lose to the Bears in the previous scenario.

[BigSlick]

triple post somehow lol

Edited December 26, 2023 by BigSlick

[BigSlick]

n/a

Edited December 26, 2023 by BigSlick

[BigSlick]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Wouldn't be too worried Fields taking off, he may improve a little with an OC who's going to maximize putting him in a position to succeed.  The same problems will still hold him back, holding onto the ball too long, fumbling, etc.

Bears fans (and executives for that matter) cannot live in fear that they end up looking stupid if they make the move with the highest chance of success and it ends up going the wrong way for them. This happens. It’s inevitable and unavoidable. Making moves to avoid looking stupid is the same principle that leads to coaches coaching games not to lose, etc.

it’s very possible the Bears trade Fields and he has success elsewhere and the QB they pick bust. It’s possible Fields succeeds and the new Bears QB succeeds. It’s possible, in a scenario a lot of people don’t even consider, that Fields sucks in a new spot AND the new Bears QB sucks. You make the move that makes the most sense to have long term superbowl competitiveness. And wherever Fields goes, barring him landing in the NFC North, I’ll be rooting for him, because he’s a good dude.

[raw]

3 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

So it is either run it back with Flus/Getsy and Fields, or clean house? But if getting rid of Getsy means cleaning house, I'm fine with it, as long as Fields doesn't take off with another team. 

 

Didn't say anything about Getsy. You can run it back with Flus and Fields and change the OC (Fields/Getsy clearly don't work). That's not at all my desired scenario, and it limits your OC options, but there's a more than 0% chance a new OC can better hide/develop Fields' flaws. 

[scarey]

3 hours ago, BigSlick said:

Bears fans (and executives for that matter) cannot live in fear that they end up looking stupid if they make the move with the highest chance of success and it ends up going the wrong way for them. This happens. It’s inevitable and unavoidable. Making moves to avoid looking stupid is the same principle that leads to coaches coaching games not to lose, etc.

it’s very possible the Bears trade Fields and he has success elsewhere and the QB they pick bust. It’s possible Fields succeeds and the new Bears QB succeeds. It’s possible, in a scenario a lot of people don’t even consider, that Fields sucks in a new spot AND the new Bears QB sucks. You make the move that makes the most sense to have long term superbowl competitiveness. And wherever Fields goes, barring him landing in the NFC North, I’ll be rooting for him, because he’s a good dude.

Do we have to evaluate everything strictly from the QB perspective?

 

I know we constantly hear about the opportunity of drafting a generational talented QB at 1, or Fields blossoming into a perennial Probowl QB. I get that QB is the most important position by far. However... isn't there something to be said about the opportunity to draft a generational WR and a top notch LT?

I know that nobody is a sure thing, but I think there's a missed opportunity if the Bears don't draft Harrison Jr. too. If they do draft Harrison, draft a LT (less likely after the win), I think it's easier to fit a middle of the road starting QB into that situation.

We're seeing the Geno Smiths, Baker Mayfields, and even Joe Flaccos of the league having some success. There may be something to be said about the realistic possibility that those guys win a Superbowl, but I think we get caught up in the idea of MUST have a superstar at QB. Why not build that foundation? Heck, given the Bears history, it might be the better choice.

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by scarey

[UK]

I can't imagine too many scenarios where an up and coming OC or potential HC would want to become a part of Eberflus staff only to possibly/probably be fired next off-season.

[UK]

10 minutes ago, scarey said:

Do we have to evaluate everything strictly from the QB perspective?

 

I know we constantly hear about the opportunity of drafting a generational talented QB at 1, or Fields blossoming into a perennial Probowl QB. I get that QB is the most important position by far. However... isn't there something to be said about the opportunity to draft a generational WR and a top notch LT?

I know that nobody is a sure thing, but I think there's a missed opportunity if the Bears don't draft Robinson Jr. too. If they do draft Robinson, draft a LT (less likely after the win), I think it's easier to fit a middle of the road starting QB into that situation.

We're seeing the Geno Smiths, Baker Mayfields, and even Joe Flaccos of the league having some success. There may be something to be said about the realistic possibility that those guys win a Superbowl, but I think we get caught up in the idea of MUST have a superstar at QB. Why not build that foundation? Heck, given the Bears history, it might be the better choice.

 

Winning without a good to great QB is an outlier rather than the norm. We seen that in 06 with the best defense and ST in the NFL and still watched Indy and the better QB win the SB.

 

[UMFan83]

The more I think about it the less enthused I am about Caleb and Maye. I’ll be the first to tell you I don’t know the first thing about scouting QB, and there’s no reason neither or both don’t turn out to be good QBs, I’m just not enthusiastic about them. 
 

All this to say, how do people here feel about the second tier of QBs, mainly Daniels and Nix? Last year people were high on Young but many had a similar unenthusiastic feeling about him. Anthony Richardson was sort of in that next tier and while injuries crushed his rookie year when he played he looked very promising.

Just wondering if it’s better to take MHJ with their top pick and go after Daniels or Nix if available with the Bears pick. Probably wouldn’t take MHJ 1 so it depends on whether you can trade down a couple spots and still land him but Daniels/MHJ/Moore seems pretty good, if you actually like Daniels

Edited December 26, 2023 by UMFan83

[WrigleyField 22]

4 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

The more I think about it the less enthused I am about Caleb and Maye. I’ll be the first to tell you I don’t know the first thing about scouting QB, and there’s no reason neither or both don’t turn out to be good QBs, I’m just not enthusiastic about them. 
 

All this to say, how do people here feel about the second tier of QBs, mainly Daniels and Nix? Last year people were high on Young but many had a similar unenthusiastic feeling about him. Anthony Richardson was sort of in that next tier and while injuries crushed his rookie year when he played he looked very promising.

Just wondering if it’s better to take MHJ with their top pick and go after Daniels or Nix if available with the Bears pick. Probably wouldn’t take MHJ 1 so it depends on whether you can trade down a couple spots and still land him but Daniels/MHJ/Moore seems pretty good, if you actually like Daniels

I say they go QB. And as good as MHJ is and he could probably make a case for pick #1 in like half of drafts, I wouldn't take him bwfore 3.  QB or trade down for a haul.  

[UK]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

The more I think about it the less enthused I am about Caleb and Maye. I’ll be the first to tell you I don’t know the first thing about scouting QB, and there’s no reason neither or both don’t turn out to be good QBs, I’m just not enthusiastic about them. 
 

All this to say, how do people here feel about the second tier of QBs, mainly Daniels and Nix? Last year people were high on Young but many had a similar unenthusiastic feeling about him. Anthony Richardson was sort of in that next tier and while injuries crushed his rookie year when he played he looked very promising.

Just wondering if it’s better to take MHJ with their top pick and go after Daniels or Nix if available with the Bears pick. Probably wouldn’t take MHJ 1 so it depends on whether you can trade down a couple spots and still land him but Daniels/MHJ/Moore seems pretty good, if you actually like Daniels

I'm in the Williams 1A camp and then a dropoff to Maye and a larger dropoff to Daniels, slight drop to Penix and another big drop to Nix.

There's enough there with Williams not to be afraid to make the pick.

[UMFan83]

16 minutes ago, UK said:

I'm in the Williams 1A camp and then a dropoff to Maye and a larger dropoff to Daniels, slight drop to Penix and another big drop to Nix.

There's enough there with Williams not to be afraid to make the pick.

Ok but I guess what I meant to ask and accidentally ended up framing in a “should we really take a QB at 1” type of statement is what is the read on Daniels and Nix, mostly Daniels? I kind of know what he does well but what keeps him from being in the conversation with Williams and Maye?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think it's fine to be not enthusiastic about Williams because almost no QBs are sure things and it sucks to be in a position where you need a QB so you have to use an extremely valuable asset on an extremely volatile position.

But the second tier of QB prospects is second tier for a reason.  You don't become the fourth QB in your draft year without having some good reasons to think you aren't going to be a good nfl qb (see what I did there?).

Daniels arm is inconsistent at best, we don't know if nix can throw downfield, McCarthy has processing issues and penix is barely younger than fields with two bad acls and am exceedingly mid profile. I'm sure one of them will end up ok in the NFL but good luck guessing which one.

Drafting one of those guys and betting the next half decade of your franchise on it seems like a big mistake. it's grossman, mcnown and fields all over again 

The only way I'd be interested is if we paired it with an established, above-average veteran, and I don't know where you find one this offseason.

 

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Ok but I guess what I meant to ask and accidentally ended up framing in a “should we really take a QB at 1” type of statement is what is the read on Daniels and Nix, mostly Daniels? I kind of know what he does well but what keeps him from being in the conversation with Williams and Maye?

Very inconsistent arm.  Accuracy and velocity are not reliable on short and intermediate throws.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

49 minutes ago, scarey said:

Do we have to evaluate everything strictly from the QB perspective?

 

I know we constantly hear about the opportunity of drafting a generational talented QB at 1, or Fields blossoming into a perennial Probowl QB. I get that QB is the most important position by far. However... isn't there something to be said about the opportunity to draft a generational WR and a top notch LT?

I know that nobody is a sure thing, but I think there's a missed opportunity if the Bears don't draft Robinson Jr. too. If they do draft Robinson, draft a LT (less likely after the win), I think it's easier to fit a middle of the road starting QB into that situation.

We're seeing the Geno Smiths, Baker Mayfields, and even Joe Flaccos of the league having some success. There may be something to be said about the realistic possibility that those guys win a Superbowl, but I think we get caught up in the idea of MUST have a superstar at QB. Why not build that foundation? Heck, given the Bears history, it might be the better choice.

 

Bears history shows us exactly why this plan consistently fails 

Our last four playoff exits were rex grossman vs. Peyton Manning, Cutler/Hanie vs. Aaron Rodgers, Trubisky vs foles, and Trubisky vs. Brees.

[UK]

With Daniels you're going to see mechanical issues in a standard drop back. Not as fluid going through the progressions as Williams and especially Maye. Doesn't have the same accuracy as those two given the inconsistent mechanics.

I can see an argument between Williams and Maye but I can't between Williams and Daniels.

[scarey]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Bears history shows us exactly why this plan consistently fails 

Our last four playoff exits were rex grossman vs. Peyton Manning, Cutler/Hanie vs. Aaron Rodgers, Trubisky vs foles, and Trubisky vs. Brees.

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or not.

 

Are you saying the "first round QB" plan consistently fails?

 

Or the "don't pick a first round QB" plan fails?

 

Because.... you just showed me 3 first round Bears QB picks here and 1 we traded for...

Edited December 27, 2023 by scarey

[Hairyducked Idiot]

30 minutes ago, scarey said:

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or not.

 

Are you saying the "first round QB" plan consistently fails?

 

Or the "don't pick a first round QB" plan fails?

 

Because.... you just showed me 3 first round Bears QB picks here and 1 we traded for...

I'm showing you that giving up on having an elite qb and trying to limp by without one will fail 

[minnesotacubsfan]

56 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I'm showing you that giving up on having an elite qb and trying to limp by without one will fail 

lots of non-elite qb's have won SB's and even "......elite....." QBs have failed (Marino and this year - more to the point -  Mahomes)

 

it takes a lot more than 1 player

 

 

[UK]

1 hour ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

lots of non-elite qb's have won SB's and even "......elite....." QBs have failed (Marino and this year - more to the point -  Mahomes)

 

it takes a lot more than 1 player

 

 

This is still the exception rather than the norm. You mention Mahomes as a failure this year....

[Tryptamine]

54 minutes ago, UK said:

This is still the exception rather than the norm. You mention Mahomes as a failure this year....

While not a failure, Mahomes, Hurts, Lawrence, etc are all having much worse years than the previous one. It's a bit bizarre how many QBs are significantly underperforming their previous year's numbers.

[UK]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

While not a failure, Mahomes, Hurts, Lawrence, etc are all having much worse years than the previous one. It's a bit bizarre how many QBs are significantly underperforming their previous year's numbers.

And their teams are doing much worse, which leads to the importance of the QB position.

 

[NorthsideAvenger]

6 hours ago, raw said:

Didn't say anything about Getsy. You can run it back with Flus and Fields and change the OC (Fields/Getsy clearly don't work). That's not at all my desired scenario, and it limits your OC options, but there's a more than 0% chance a new OC can better hide/develop Fields' flaws. 

My bad.

[Wilson A2000]

10 hours ago, mul21 said:

If the FO (Poles/Warren) didn't see the deficiencies of this coaching staff in blowing 3 games they had a greater than 90% win probability late in the 4th quarter in, then I think we're in a for a really long wait until this team is good again.  Those 3 games alone should cost any coach their job when they happen in a single season regardless of what else they accomplish, which in this case is jack horsefeathers.

Poles has already intimated as much. He doesn’t like how the Bears close games and this will cost the entire coaching staff and Fields their jobs.

[Tryptamine]

If I had to guess at this point, Getsy is about 90% chance to be gone, maybe even higher.

As much as I hate to say it, Eberflus keeps it tight with Atlanta and beats GB, I think he likely hangs onto his gig. I think it's almost certain if the Bears win the last two. My only hope is that Poles weighs those 3 epic collapses very heavily to the point where he just doesn't care what happened last week or the next two weeks and his mind is already made up.

I'd be pretty shocked if Poles is going anywhere at this point, especially with the 2023 draft really started to show some blossoming talent.