Gird Your Loi(o)ns - 11/19 noon on Fox

[Brian707]

These final 7 games will be a good sample size for Fields to try and salvage his Bears career. Equal mix of good, bad, and mediocre,

Good:

Lions(2) and Browns

Mediocre:

Vikings and Falcons

Bad:

Arizona and Green Bay

 

He has to blow the doors off consistently in all 7 games.

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Brian707

[Rex Buckingham]

The Browns defense is going to eviscerate this offense

[WrigleyField 22]

Okay so per earlier discussion on sacks.  I wanted to compare him to another high sack QB, so Wilson is always my go to.  Wilson sack rates by down is 6.7%, 7.3% 12.3%.  Compared to 12% / 13% / 14.9% for Fields.  Ironically Fields also has his highest passer rating on first downs. But even if he was merely Wilson-ian sack rate on downs 1+2 and the same exact QB on 3rd down, he'd have saved 32 sacks over his career (31 starts)

 

Offset some possible positive plays from scrambles, less negative plays from fumbles and measure the EPA change from downs like 2nd and 10 v 2nd and 17... And it's probably a pretty big net impact

 

Edit - some other high sack QBs, like Burrow show that 3rd down spike (and Burrow has specifically spoke to thar attitude toward 3rd downs).  Others like Daniel Jones or Deshaun Watson are more flat like Fields. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[minnesotacubsfan]

does Fields have the highest sack rate in the nfl?

[WrigleyField 22]

3 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

does Fields have the highest sack rate in the nfl?

I don't know, but I found the lowest for 2023 and rofl

 

Edit - Fields is 2nd highest with Daniel Jones being the highest for 2023

Edited November 15, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[gflore34]

If Fields somehow manages to ball out these remaining games does anyone think Poles might be able to get a 2nd rounder for him?

[jersey cubs fan]

19 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

If Fields somehow manages to ball out these remaining games does anyone think Poles might be able to get a 2nd rounder for him?

Define “ball out”

[We Got The Whole 9]

19 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

If Fields somehow manages to ball out these remaining games does anyone think Poles might be able to get a 2nd rounder for him?

If he "balls out" then you draft MHJ and Fashanu and run roughshod on the league next year. If he's merely 80 rating, 200 ypg, then you probably get a 3rd, maybe conditional 2nd IMO. This was literally discussed the page before I believe. 

[gflore34]

7 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Define “ball out”

Play okay to good vs. Detroit and Cleveland, tear it up against the remaining opponents.

[BigSlick]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

If Fields somehow manages to ball out these remaining games does anyone think Poles might be able to get a 2nd rounder for him?

If he balls out I think there's a chance they don't draft a QB (that all depends on where the Bears picks end up, what chance they have at the tip top of the QB class)

The problem with assessing him as trade value is that its not just quality of play - it also encompasses his contract situation, which is set to either end or increase substantially  

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Play okay to good vs. Detroit and Cleveland, tear it up against the remaining opponents.

Then you have to seriously think about bringing him back to start 2024. 
 

yes, you could get a 2nd rounder for what would be a well above average starter. 

[raw]

7 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Then you have to seriously think about bringing him back to start 2024. 
 

yes, you could get a 2nd rounder for what would be a well above average starter. 

If you bring Fields back, you gotta be prepared to bring back Flus/Getsy. If he plays that well, they are going to win at least 4 of those games. That's a 7-win season and a hot finish (3 in a row to end the season). If he has 3 okay-to-good games and 4 bangers, you don't guarantee him money (5th year option) to learn a whole new offense/coaching staff because of the uncertainty that provides. 

[jersey cubs fan]

13 minutes ago, raw said:

If you bring Fields back, you gotta be prepared to bring back Flus/Getsy. If he plays that well, they are going to win at least 4 of those games. That's a 7-win season and a hot finish (3 in a row to end the season). If he has 3 okay-to-good games and 4 bangers, you don't guarantee him money (5th year option) to learn a whole new offense/coaching staff because of the uncertainty that provides. 

I’ve already resigned myself to Flus returning even if they end up 3-14. The narrative is somehow that he’s done a good job and earned it. I’d rather they win and keep him than lose and keep him.

[Outshined_One]

I hate the fact that there are so few "good" outcomes to the 2023 season. Either Fields sucks or gets hurt, resulting in this team going on a Bataan death march on its way to two top 5 picks, or Fields does well enough that everyone gets brought back for a second go-round in 2024.

There has to be some sort of middle ground where Fields does well enough to get traded for a Top 60 pick, but not well enough that Flus and Getsy keep their jobs for next season.

[jersey cubs fan]

12 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I hate the fact that there are so few "good" outcomes to the 2023 season. Either Fields sucks or gets hurt, resulting in this team going on a Bataan death march on its way to two top 5 picks, or Fields does well enough that everyone gets brought back for a second go-round in 2024.

There has to be some sort of middle ground where Fields does well enough to get traded for a Top 60 pick, but not well enough that Flus and Getsy keep their jobs for next season.

I think the most likely outcome is Fields plays well enough to push the Bears pick out of top 5, but not well enough to save his job. He’ll get traded for a conditional 3rd and they’ll draft his replacement and go on a spending spree to save their own jobs. 

[jersey cubs fan]

Vegas is begging people to put money on the bears. Line is 8 now. 

[raw]

2 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

I hate the fact that there are so few "good" outcomes to the 2023 season. Either Fields sucks or gets hurt, resulting in this team going on a Bataan death march on its way to two top 5 picks, or Fields does well enough that everyone gets brought back for a second go-round in 2024.

There has to be some sort of middle ground where Fields does well enough to get traded for a Top 60 pick, but not well enough that Flus and Getsy keep their jobs for next season.

Even the scenarios where Fields does well and people lose jobs likely involves the defense losing games. The issue there is that most of the guys on defense are back. The only starter they stand to lose is Justin Jones, with Jackson a potential cap casualty (Johnson's at the very least is getting tagged). And with that group playing well currently, that'd be a big step back. That being said, they do play some good offenses and were just gashed by a good offense in LA a couple weeks ago. 

[Brian707]

2 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Vegas is begging people to put money on the bears. Line is 8 now. 

It was +10 just a couple days ago.  Seems like they need Lions money 

[jersey cubs fan]

Or that 

[Brian707]

I think the line move was because Fields was officially playing.  I guess they figure he is worth 2 points over Bagent.  

[jersey cubs fan]

28 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

I think the line move was because Fields was officially playing.  I guess they figure he is worth 2 points over Bagent.  

Strange it went from 8 originally to 10.5 and back to 8. Most people assumed Fields was playing. 
 

I think people are conveniently forgetting this defense is highly susceptible to competent QB play. The narrative is they’ve played much better the past few games, even though the Chargers game was a little over two weeks ago. And Derek Carr had his own quietly efficient and productive day without their top RB. Detroit should be able to put up a lot of points on this team. 

[Brian707]

Yeah they should put up 30+ against this Bears D

[BigSlick]

If the Bears defense keep them under 30, I consider it a pretty good win. 

I don't think it's specifically the Bears D thats susceptible to competent QB play - EVERYONE is susceptible to competent QB play. Good QBs carve up defenses, there's almost nothing a defense can do to stop a good QB from moving the ball and scoring points. The way the game is called now - emphasis on the safety of the QB, more rigorous enforcement of illegal contact, the sophistication of play calling and route running - it actually makes it virtually impossible to shut down an offense with an effective QB. It's what the NFL has been angling towards for over 20 years. You're not completely helpless, but the deck is stacked against you and you have to hope for turnovers, sacks, and turning as many drives into field goals rather than touchdowns. 

All the more reason why it's absolutely crucial to get a star QB and a good offense. It is the bare minimum to being successful in the modern NFL. Occasionally you get a couple freak teams that can be elite with an exceptional defense and a middling offense, but you are fighting against the current. And there's no reason to fight the way things are going. For some reason, though, the Bears are stuck with it. 

[UMFan83]

 

[Brian707]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said: