What's your prospect trade hierarchy this offseason?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's been a fair amount of chatter that the Cubs may be pretty active in the trade market, so I thought it might be useful to see what our collective preferences were on who you do and don't want to trade.  For me the categories shake out something like this, I'm excluding everyone who has played in MLB, save for PCA:

Not trading without a godfather offer

• PCA: the AAA and MLB struggles with the bat have my eyebrows raised, but that wasn't all that many PA, he's made adjustments before, and the defense + baserunning really raise the floor
• Horton: Best shot the org has at a front of the rotation starter, needs to show deeper in games but with the team's rotation situation there's no way I'm giving up a pitcher of his quality now that he's shown as much and is as close as he is

No one's untouchable but I'm parting with these names as late as possible

• Shaw: the approach needs refinement and his defensive home is uncertain but I think he's well on his way to being an above average player that's already within shouting distance of MLB
• Rojas: Players with Jeffy Rojas' swing, tools, age, and results do not come along every day, and especially given that teams are unlikely to pay a premium given his distance to MLB, they need to hang on to his upside
• Ferris: Similarly, I suspect Ferris is about 8 months from being a breakout name in this system and I doubt teams will treat him as such in trade talks

 

I'm not giving them away but I'd move them in the appropriate deal

• Brown: Love the stuff, don't love the injuries and control/reliever risk.  If some team sees him as a 55 SP then I think I'd have to let them find out if they're right
• Caissie: Torn between two worlds with Caissie, one is that we probably collectively underrate the possibility he starts at Iowa, hits a lot, and plays a meaningful 2nd half role in MLB.  The other is that he probably has a 2 WAR ceiling given his lack of positional value and these are the types of players you can't be afraid to give up because good systems produce them en masse

You have to give value to get value, and if I'm giving value this is the value I'd give:

• Alcantara: The upside and success along with the AFL visibility means he could headline a really significant addition, and between the distance he still has to make to reach that potential, the risks at the upper levels with his long levers, and the option clock that will require him to move hastily, I think his maximum utility is as a trade chip
• Triantos: With the AFL success and ARL bat with strong contact it's possible his value will never be higher.  With the progress still needed in taking walks and hitting for power on top of maybe being a DH caliber glove I think he's got average at best likely positive outcomes.
• Ballesteros: He's barely into this tier, but I don't think he's a catcher and I'm less optimistic that he's a damage bat at 1B/DH than I am with Caissie.

 

This is obviously not an exhaustive list, but maybe a useful way of organizing how you think about different trade possibilities.  What's your list(s) look like?

[Tim]

My first reaction is that I'd have Alcantara two tiers higher. I'll come back with more thoughts later.

[Bertz]

One thing for me is how lopsided the farm is in terms of guys having an ETA in the next ~24 months.  On the one hand, it's awesome that we finally have so much talent so close to the majors.  You'd much rather have that than the other way around.  But the flipside we don't have the waves and waves coming, we have like two ginormous ones.  So while not untouchable I'm very much unwilling to deal Ferris, Rojas and even though he's a step down as a prospect Gray because we need guys with some potential oomph with 2025/2026 ETAs.

Otherwise I think my tier list would look similar to yours.  I'd include Wicks in that Caissie/Brown tier, and I'd drop Shaw down there (though I think from just a human angle since he was just drafted he's exceedingly unlikely to get moved thus winter).  But generally this feels right.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I would actually have Ferris in the 3rd or 4th tier. He's a 2nd round pick out of IMG, so he is no secret. He has the frame to add, a repeatable delivery (the walks came in bunches and sort of skewed the numbers IMO), he allowed just 1 HR, got plenty of GB, and teams trip over themselves for potential LH TORP. I think he is on the verge of storming through a system next year. AA by June and possible AAA promotion toward the end of the year for a playoff run or whatever. 

[Tim]

Just now, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I would actually have Ferris in the 3rd or 4th tier. He's a 2nd round pick out of IMG, so he is no secret. He has the frame to add, a repeatable delivery (the walks came in bunches and sort of skewed the numbers IMO), he allowed just 1 HR, got plenty of GB, and teams trip over themselves for potential LH TORP. I think he is on the verge of storming through a system next year. AA by June and possible AAA promotion toward the end of the year for a playoff run or whatever. 

I think TT feels the same, which is why he wants to hold him for a year to let that value increase (or move up to the top tier)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Shaw’s maybe *the* guy I’d move for another star. He’s got mass appeal (latest first round pick, SS, power, great optics during a MiLB debut into AA) to help land pretty much anyone else without digging too deep

I am not super wedded to Shaw, but I think he's maybe the most certain of the non-PCA/Horton tier to be an above average player, and I also don't think that teams are necessarily going to value him as much/greater than an Alcantara, or significantly more than Caissie/Ballesteros.  So if teams see Caissie/Ballesteros/Shaw/Triantos as all having similar amounts of value, I'm trading Shaw last.  If they do see him as an Alcantara/headliner for a star then I'd still probably deal Alcantara first, but maybe he's more in that Brown/Caissie tier.

[Outshined_One]

I think Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos, Canario, Murray, and Mervis are the sweet spot for me in terms of guys who might be valued highly enough by other organizations to pry away good quality players in fair deals. All are reasonably advanced and could conceivably be quality major league starters by the end of 2024, but there are just enough questions about each that I'd be okay with trading them away.

Horton and Wicks are my only untouchables (void for dream trades that will never, ever happen).  I think PCA is still the top prospect in this system, but his callup gave me juuuust enough pause to slide him into the next tier with Brown, Shaw, and Ferris for guys who should be off limits unless it's a blockbuster franchise changing deal.

I'm torn on how I feel about Rojas and Ballesteros on the hitting side and Gallardo, Arias, and Gray on the pitching side. They're far enough away that it's hard to properly value them, so I'd prefer to keep them, but they're easy enough to dream on that certain teams could way overvalue them.

[Jason Ross]

Tier 1: The "I don't believe in untouchable, but these guys you'd have to probably pry from my cold, dead hands" group

Pete Crow-Armstrong:   There are flaws here, but the floor is so damn high. Brenton Doyle was able to be worth a full fWAR despite leading the league (in the bad way) with a 43 wRC+ in CF. Varsho 2+ fWAR'd with a wRC+ in the 80's in a similar fashion. Play strong defense, add base running, play a premium position, and you have a strong floor for success. PCA is about as "safe" of a 2 win player as you'll find, and if he can work on some things with the bat, there's 4.5 fWAR upside here on his best seasons. 

Cade Horton:   I'll admit biases here. Many of you only have known me for a short time, but I'm going to toot my horn here; I was on a pretty small island directly after the 2022 draft as a big fan of Cade Horton and all he's done is kill it. Part of this is my ego; I like being right (and listen, I'm wrong plenty. I own up to that too). But if we take that out for a moment, I think I'm being objective when I say just how good I think Horton is. There's Spencer Strider type stuff here, and a legitimate TORP that we haven't seen in a while come through the system.

Tier 2: I'm only moving these for elite talent and only if that talent can't be had any other way group.

Matt Shaw:  I really like Matt Shaw, and like PCA, I think there's a decent floor, especially with the bat. He's a guy you can probably slide into 2b or 3b, and expect a 115 wRC+ type of hitter if things smooth out the way you hope. There's upside, there's 25 HR+ and lots of bat to ball. Aggressive nature at the plate, but I love Matt Shaw, and I like him more and more.

Owen Caissie:  Ego time here, too, sorry. I liked Caissie pre-draft 2020 and he was on the top of my "please draft this guy in round 2" list. Obviously we've taken a bit of a circuitous route to being a Cub, but I've been a big Caissie fan. Exit velo, emerging ability to handle RF for the near-ish future and 70 grade raw power...this is what elite power hitters look like. He's young and has things to iron out, but he's got true middle-order stuff. I know the argument is with the K's and that he's not a premium position, and I'll admit my bias probably has him a tier too high, but it's my goddamned list and I'll do as I please!

Jefferon Rojas:   Give it a year and I think he's a top-5 prospect in this system. Possible star stuff. Big, big, big fan of an 18 year old who looks this poised already.

Tier 3:  I'm pretty reluctant to trade them, but I would if I really had to get something done.

Kevin Alcantara:  I think he's a great, great player. Huge power and I think he'll be an adequate CF for a bit, and possibly a GG CoF guy. With that said, I think I'd accept moving him. He's a "to make an omelette you have to scramble some eggs" kind of guy. I'd be sad to move him, I wouldn't shop him, but if you told me I'd get to keep the above guys if I had to move Kevin, I would. Being that PCA should take CF, that I'm a bit more of a fan of Caissie, and that I think another team will value him more as a CF than I could as a RF...I'd do it. If I had to.

Tier 4: The guys I'd be be okay moving. I'm not shopping them, I'm just okay moving them in the right trade

Ben Brown:  I really like Ben Brown, so this feels a bit weird, but his control with the fastball remains an issue and there's real BP fear here. When Ben Brown has the fastball, he's elite. When he doesn't, he just gets beat. He's a baby, and he can iron this out, but if you told me that I could get controllable, fairly high end MLB talent and I had to headline it with Ben Brown? I'd probably come away feeling alright.

Jackson Ferris/Mo Ballesteros:  These are young kids who have a long way to go. If a team is going to overvalue a 19 year old arm or a 19 year old DH to headline a big deal...fine. I know there's some chance they go up in value, but prospects fail so damn often. If someone wants kids who are barely out of HS to lead for an established MLB player, or a controllable MLB player...so be it. 

James Triantos:  Love the hit tool, curious on the defensive spot. If someone else loves Triantos, I can be okay moving him.

BJ Murray:  Yes, Tom, I know, I can literally hear you yelling at me when I type this out. I'm not as high on Murray as you are! I think Murray probably sits in a less premium position than 3b as we move forward, and there are so many things I love about Murray too. The hit tool is great, I love that he switch hits, but I need to see more of the HR power to move him up my board. At this stage I'm still considering him a massive win coming from where he has to what he's become and if I can get controllable MLB players for him I will. I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm wrong. That he's on a list with the other 4 guys should probably tell you what I think about him in a very positive way though!

Alexander Canario:  Generally blocked at most positions, questions over the contact%, think he's a good player but being where he's at currently with age/option status, if a team sees a starting MLB OF'er and I can turn him from being a player who isn't really capable of being used into something that the Cubs need? I'd be willing to make that kind of swap.

Below my tier 4 is my group of like, Mervis, Vazquez, Perlaza, etc; guys who are either on the 40-man, Rule V eligible, blocked, etc, of guys I'd be more than cool with trading and would expect a handful of them would go to better homes for more useful pieces to the parent team.

Edited November 7, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Bertz]

One other thing on this, and I've mentioned it in some of the more transaction-oriented threads, is that there are a couple pockets of depth that we should look to take advantage of.  All of these exist in the upper minors or early into MLB.

Close Proximity RHH Outfielders: Canario, Alcantara, C. Franklin

MLB Ready-ish SPs: Assad, Brown, Wicks, Wesneski

Potentially Special bats with more or less no position: Morel, Triantos, Ballesteros, McGeary

For these guys, maybe sans context you'd have them in tier 1 or tier 2, but the existence of the others in their cohort I think ought to lend itself to making them more available (e.g. I could live with dealing Wicks only because we do have those other guys right behind him).  At the same time, I'd be extremely reticent to double or triple dip from a single category, even if they're both 3rd or 4th tier (e.g. I wouldn't move Ballesteros and Triantos).

[muntjack]

On 11/7/2023 at 9:41 AM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Caissie: .......these are the types of players you can't be afraid to give up because good systems produce them en masse

Professional baseball players avg. exit velocity leaders.

1. Aaron Judge

2. Ronald Acuna Jr.

3. Shohei Ohtani

4. Owen Caissie

He hit a ball harder than Aaron Judge did all season. At age 20.  Players like him are not produced en masse.  

Otherwise, good list.

 

 

 

 

[CubinNY]

10 hours ago, muntjack said:

Professional baseball players avg. exit velocity leaders.

1. Aaron Judge

2. Ronald Acuna Jr.

3. Shohei Ohtani

4. Owen Caissie

He hit a ball harder than Aaron Judge did all season. At age 20.  Players like him are not produced en masse.  

Otherwise, good list.

 

 

 

 

Brian Dopirak had incredible EVs, now he's a charter boat captain. Just saying. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

11 hours ago, muntjack said:

Professional baseball players avg. exit velocity leaders.

1. Aaron Judge

2. Ronald Acuna Jr.

3. Shohei Ohtani

4. Owen Caissie

He hit a ball harder than Aaron Judge did all season. At age 20.  Players like him are not produced en masse.  

Otherwise, good list.

He's a good prospect that hits the ball hard!  I hope he goes supernova in Iowa and never looks back.  But also part of that average EV is a function of his approach which has a lot of swing and miss.  And given that he's not going to have Acuna or even Judge's positional value, he needs to be closer to a Judge caliber bat in order to break out of that averageish player ceiling.  Maybe he does it, but I wouldn't be too precious with him in trade talks holding on to that hope.

[CubinNY]

Guys the Cubs could/should move to fill holes (they have value)

Canario, Triantos, Vazquez, Murray, Mervis, McGeary, Franklin, Rivera, C. Franklin

Guys I'd be reluctant to trade but would in the right deal

Wicks, Brown, Caissie, Ballistaros

Guys I really want to hang on to 

Rojas, PCA, Horton, Shaw, Alcantara, Grey

Guys who we like but have little trade value

Hernandez, K Franklin, Davis, Killian

[craig]

Won 83 games with Bellinger and Stroman, have holes  CF/1B/3B/DH/rotation/relief.  *IF* Hoyer signs Bellinger and one of the Gray/Nola/Yamamoto starters, I'd understand trying to trade to fill a remaining hole to help get into playoffs.  But if replacing Stroman with Stroman or worse, and Bellinger with Chapman or Candelario, I don't want to trade upside.  What's the point?  Do NOT want to trade good long-term talent for a 1-year Boras rental.   If Bellinger is gone, I don't think time is right to trade good long-term prospects for short-term rental.

Different if you're getting a guy you except to be a good core player for multiple years.  Trades for Rizzo, Matt Clement, Derrek Lee, Aramis, even Matt Garza, those were all long-term guys.  Trading futures for a long-term futures piece could be fine, assuming he works out better than Ian Stewart.  

[craig]

1. Averse to trading the variably high-ceiling guy unless getting a high-ceiling club-controlled guy. 
2. Obviously PCA and Horton. 
3. Scrub like Wesneski, sure of course. 
4. Alcantara, I'd be fine to trade. He's pretty widely hyped, probably excessively so.  So maybe he already has good trade value as is?  
5. Ferris and Gray, don't touch.  Trade value for distant guys like Ferris, Gray, and Rojas isn't great, because they're so far away and so unproven.  I think it's much better investment to keep them, and play the risky odds that they'll turn out well.  The long-term value if any-or-all-three of those guys succeeds is potentially much higher than what they can buy you now. 
6. Ballesteros, don't touch.  Unless you know he can't/won't catch.  Banner may be shilling, but he talks about Ballesteros being reasonably quick and mobile, and my understanding is that he's quite smart.  A good catcher who handles pitchers and can hit, that's invaluable.  I'd keep him for sure, and hope his catching turns out just fine and his pitcher-handling excellent.  The value of staffing catcher internally, without needing to pay the price in free agency or trade to get somebody, is big.  Obviously a different analysis if Cubs evaluate his catching as poor and project it to always be a deficit.  
7. Caissie/Canario, don't touch.  Between Morel, Canario, and Caissie, I don't know who'll end up the best, if any.  But we've got 3 guys who could be 30-HR .500-slug >.800-OPS DH's, and I don't know which will succeed long-term versus become Patrick Wisdom.  I'd save Caissie and Canario and give them more time to prove.  Both have a chance to improve their value, and I want to take the chance that one or both will do so.  
8. Shaw and Triantos, don't touch.  Neither has done enough yet or gotten close enough yet to have commanding trade value.  But *IF* they're ripping in AA this summer, by July their trade value might be much higher than is true today.  Again, I'd keep them for now, take the educated risk that their value will go up as they get closer to the majors.  

Basically I think we've got lots of guys who are kind of pre-peak value.  A bunch of guys who, *IF* they progress well this season, will have significantly more value in July or next winter than they do now.  Too soon to trade most of them.  

Unless you're getting a really good long-term piece back.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 11/7/2023 at 8:21 AM, Tim said:

My first reaction is that I'd have Alcantara two tiers higher. I'll come back with more thoughts later.

Same

[craig]

On 11/7/2023 at 9:41 AM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Not trading without a godfather offer

• PCA: 
• Horton: 

Parting with these names as late as possible

• Shaw: 
• Rojas: 
• Ferris: 

I'm not giving them away but I'd move them in the appropriate deal

• Brown: 
• Caissie:

You have to give value to get value:

• Alcantara: 
• Triantos:
• Ballesteros:

• I'd bump Ballesteros up two, just in case he can catch.  (Cubs may know better.)
• Rojas and Shaw down one.  Rojas might end up being excellent, but I'd include him in the appropriate deal as the second piece.  
• I'd add Gray to "not giving away" group 3.  Given the cost of acquiring pitching, I'd like to keep guy who might become a good starter.  
• Canario would be at least on my 4th tier.  520 high-minors AB, 38Hr, HR-power is precious, especially with OBP.   .357 OBP over two Iowa stops.