Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

I am really hoping Jed has a plan B and contacts Boras with an offer for either Bellinger or even Chapman. But tells him this is the offer. If that gets them to the table to make something work, great. But if not and they need to move to plan B. Whether it is a trade we don’t expect, or a signing of someone like JD Martinez and then a Morel trade for a 3rd baseman or a pitcher, or a huge prospect trade to upgrade a position of need, all would be fine with me. It is time to make the offer and proceed however they have to depending on if they get someone signed or not. 

[UMFan83]

FWIW:

 

 

 

[Stratos]

Sounds like both the Cubs FO and scouts are quite a bit more confident in Busch's hitting abilities to transfer better at the MLB level compared to Mervis.  From Sahadev Sharma:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/01/25/the-cubs-clearly-intend-for-michael-busch-to-be-the-first-baseman-to-open-the-season/

Quote

 

If one were to look only at the slash lines from Triple A for each player, this could be a reasonable conclusion. But when it comes to talking to scouts, these two don’t seem very comparable ….

Both struggled in their brief MLB debuts. Scouts were eager to see what Mervis could do at the highest level because the belief was that his abilities may not fully translate. There were concerns that he’d struggle with the elite velocity and breaking balls he’d see. It can’t be assumed that he’ll never succeed, but those concerns looked to be justified in his 99 plate appearances.

On the other hand, scouts seem much more assured that Busch will hit in the big leagues. There’s always a chance that he’ll end up just a slightly above-average (or worse) bat, which isn’t enough to thrive at first. But there are far fewer Busch skeptics than there are for Mervis when it comes to talent evaluators around baseball.

The biggest statistical difference between the two on offense comes in the form of their plate discipline. At Triple A, Mervis swung out of the zone much more often than Busch and when he did, he swung and missed more often as well. Busch had a higher in-zone contact rate as well, leading to a total contact rate in 2023 at Triple A of 81.5 percent compared to Mervis’ rate of 70.1 percent.”

 

This would explain the comments from Hoyer/Hawkins since the Busch trade and their confidence of him over Mervis.  They've said he's going to be on the OD roster, and envision him as a player in the lineup over his 6 years of control from this Hawkins interview I listen to:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/02/05/carter-hawkins-speaks-working-the-phones-being-opportunistic-rotation-buschs-role-free-agents-more/

They also like Busch's glove at 1B from these comments from the first article above:

Quote

 

“Our expectation is he’s on the Opening Day roster,” Carter Hawkins said. “I think there’s obviously opportunity at first base — that’s kinda the easy plug-and-play. He’s got really good reviews defensively over there from our scouts that have seen him, from talking to the Dodgers, from obviously seeing him over there.”

“(Busch) is certainly going to play,” Jed Hoyer said. “How the rest of the offseason plays out, we’ll see. But yeah, that’s been the mindset — that I think first base is the most natural spot for him.”

 

Looks like Mervis is slated as either a backup depth for Busch, a potential DH option, future trade bait, or Mervis end up hitting well and playing 1B better than Busch, moving Busch to DH.  Tons of options available, especially if Bellinger is signed and PCA takes over CF in the future.

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Sounds like both the Cubs FO and scouts are quite a bit more confident in Busch's hitting abilities to transfer better at the MLB level compared to Mervis.  From Sahadev Sharma:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/01/25/the-cubs-clearly-intend-for-michael-busch-to-be-the-first-baseman-to-open-the-season/

This would explain the comments from Hoyer/Hawkins since the Busch trade and their confidence of him over Mervis.  They've said he's going to be on the OD roster, and envision him as a player in the lineup over his 6 years of control from this Hawkins interview I listen to:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/02/05/carter-hawkins-speaks-working-the-phones-being-opportunistic-rotation-buschs-role-free-agents-more/

They also like Busch's glove at 1B from these comments from the first article above:

Looks like Mervis is slated as either a backup depth for Busch, a potential DH option, future trade bait, or Mervis end up hitting well and playing 1B better than Busch, moving Busch to DH.  Tons of options available, especially if Bellinger is signed and PCA takes over CF in the future.

Not to toot my horn...but that's the conclusion I came to myself with a deep dive into both players Triple-A data. On the surface they look similar but the processes are vastly differently. It's interesting because I was always a Mervis fan, but that's because the eye test hides the process, as do the overall lines. Getting real in depth, you can see it.

The Cubs have that data and more. If I can find it...well the Cubs can. Far more efficiently and better. 

[UMFan83]

More Bellinger rumblings though it’s more of that “I feel like..” reporting

 

[chibears55]

7 days til pitchers and catchers report and still not 100% sure who will play 1B, 3B, CF, and DH.   

Right now it's projected to be Busch, Madrigal,  Tauchman,  and Morel. 

That not good you all

[Bertz]

So I guess here's a meandering list of points rattling around my head regarding the Boras guys

- I think each of the four is an approximately 3.5 win player

- If you forced me to take the over/under on 3.5 WAR for each guy I'd take the over on Snell/Chapman and the under on Bellinger/Montgomery

- I think each of CF, 3B, and #5 starter is currently below average but not bad.  I like internal options at CF the most by a smidge

- Chapman and Snell would cost the team a pick in the 45-50 range, Bellinger a pick in the 75-80 range, and Montgomery no pick

- Rough expectation seems to be that Chapman gets $125M, Montgomery $150M, Bellinger $175M, and Snell $200M

- Purely for 2024, I think one of the SPs and a bat like Belt or JDM probably leads to the most wins

- I'm a big believer in lineup diversity. Bellinger's a plus there while Chapman’s a big minus.  Combined with Bellinger's age is why I ultimately prefer him most out of the four, despite the above points

- I do think Jed is more or less obligated to sign one of the Boras 4.  I'm sympathetic to some guys just not having reasonable price tags, but no one pointed a gun at Jed's head and forced him into this waiting game strategy.

- Put another way, take the above and replace horsefeathers with "unreasonable negotiator"

 

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I do think Jed is more or less obligated to sign one of the Boras 4.  I'm sympathetic to some guys just not having reasonable price tags, but no one pointed a gun at Jed's head and forced him into this waiting game strategy.

Do you think it's possible that, for lack of a better phrase here, he's kinda indifferent between the choices and is fine waiting it out? It's not like some team in the central (or obviously anywhere else) is going to spend 9 figures to pull the rug out from under us. Toronto signs one of the four....great, that most likely takes them off the table as an option for the other three. Etc etc.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Do you think it's possible that, for lack of a better phrase here, he's kinda indifferent between the choices and is fine waiting it out? It's not like some team in the central (or obviously anywhere else) is going to spend 9 figures to pull the rug out from under us. Toronto signs one of the four....great, that most likely takes them off the table as an option for the other three. Etc etc.

Jays sign Bellinger, Giants sign Chapman, Angels sign Snell and Rangers sign Montgomery. All not that crazy a scenario.

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Jays sign Bellinger, Giants sign Chapman, Angels sign Snell and Rangers sign Montgomery. All not that crazy a scenario.

Sure but these things don't all happen instantaneously. I don't think one signing ups the price of the others. 

[Rcal10]

38 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Sure but these things don't all happen instantaneously. I don't think one signing ups the price of the others. 

But the point is, just because one team signs one of the 4 and then eliminates them from the other 3, doesn’t mean all 4 can’t be signed by a team other than the Cubs. 4 different teams. There are enough teams that will sign free agents. 

[Derwood]

I don't understand why the Blue Jays "need" Bellinger? They have three OF's who put up ~2.2 fWAR last year, Guerrero at 1B, and Turner at DH

[chibears55]

Hoyer doesn't really seem to be the negotiating type,  he basically has his max years and amount set and waits until the player comes down from their asking price.

With Bellinger,  I have to think it's more about the years, Bellinger is likely looking for a minimum of 7 yrs and Hoyer probably will only go to 5

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

But the point is, just because one team signs one of the 4 and then eliminates them from the other 3, doesn’t mean all 4 can’t be signed by a team other than the Cubs. 4 different teams. There are enough teams that will sign free agents. 

Process of elimition as far as team's needs and budget.

You look for what teams has openings and are looking to add whomever of the 4 top players available and are willing or can fit the player's price range into their budget..

 

[squally1313]

41 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But the point is, just because one team signs one of the 4 and then eliminates them from the other 3, doesn’t mean all 4 can’t be signed by a team other than the Cubs. 4 different teams. There are enough teams that will sign free agents. 

I get your point. All things being equal, that means we have a 20% chance of being the team left without a dance partner. Call it 30% if you want to doom boner some mystery teams, whatever. But, all other things are not equal:

• The Cubs have a perfect sized cushion under the luxury tax and all signs point to them coming right up against it and are perfectly in the part of the win curve where these kinds of additions are maximized
• Blue Jays are already into the luxury tax and just lost an arbitration hearing to the face of their franchise, if that tells you anything about their willingness to throw a ton of money around. 
• Signing any of these dudes would put the Rangers into the luxury tax.
• The Angels are projected for 77 wins and a 3% chance to win their division.
• The Giants have a 3.3% chance to win their division.

The price of the three, or two, remaining isn't going to suddenly shoot up once a couple of them sign. It's much more likely teams take themselves out of contention and the cost goes down. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Do you think it's possible that, for lack of a better phrase here, he's kinda indifferent between the choices and is fine waiting it out? It's not like some team in the central (or obviously anywhere else) is going to spend 9 figures to pull the rug out from under us. Toronto signs one of the four....great, that most likely takes them off the table as an option for the other three. Etc etc.

I think they probably have their preference for best fits but are likely trying to remain as flexible as they always do.   They're a very opportunistic FO and will probably take the deal here that makes the team better compared to the contract cost.   Not overspending on one of these guys means they can use that savings to afford an upgrade at another position, like on a pen arm or another bat upgrade etc. and do this every year of the contract.

They shouldn't feel pigeonholed.  If they sign one of the Boras SP they can always trade someone like Taillon at a later time if they want to make room for one of the young SPs, or trade one of those young SPs like one of Wicks/Brown/Assad etc in a package for an upgrade elsewhere.

If they don't sign one of the Boras 4 they could spend that money on a reliever and/or another bat or swing a trade.

[Stratos]

51 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I don't understand why the Blue Jays "need" Bellinger? They have three OF's who put up ~2.2 fWAR last year, Guerrero at 1B, and Turner at DH

They had problems underperforming offensively throughout last season and have lost Chapman to FA.  The offense is almost the same as of now besides the Chapnan/Turner swap.

[PeanutPunch33]

So this is purely based on my "eye test" analysis, but I don't see how the Cubs don't win 88 to 90 games next year or more if they re-sign Bellinger.  When I watched the team last year, they were devoid in 2 key areas:  Left handed hitting, and coaching (imo)

A few reasons why I'm optimistic:  

1.  I legitimately think Cody Bellinger is one of the best players in baseball when he is on this team.  I'm all-on in the idea that the Cubs have "fixed" him and his approach.  People forget that he was legit the best player in the game in the month of July last year, and he was basically a .820+ ish (if i recall) OPS guy before he got hurt and came back in July to be even better than that.  This is an Arizona/LA kid who translated right away to Chicago baseball.  I also think that he can consistently mantain a high BABIP now because of his new appraoch of putting the ball in play and spraying it all over. He has taken to hitting at Wrigley the way Castellanos did in 2019.

2.  Emergence of Seiya Suzuki:  I don't think we've seen the best from this guy yet, and he clearly turned a corner the 2nd half of last year.  If his new "IDGAF" attitude extrapolates to a full season, he could be a top 20 hitter in baseball.  I expect it to come all together this year with CC at manager and giving him his "mental break" days as needed

3. The Cubs got nothing from left handed hitting last year outside of Belly and some days from Happ.  Now you are adding 2 top LHH prospects in Armstrong and Busch this year, in addition to retaining Tauchman and Happ.  The Cubs can platoon the **** out of teams all year long, similar to the 2021 SF Giants. 

4. Insane Pitching Depth: Up and down the roster, the Cubs have excellent pitching, both left handed and right handed.  This is not even including Ben Brown and Cade Horton and both of them could force their way up in 2024.  They have more pitching talent than they know what to do with.

5.  Coaching - the Cubs lost a ton of close games last year, and they added probably the best manager in the game.

IDK guys, I'm really optimistic this year.  BTW the Cubs have 2 bonafide starting caliber players coming off of their bench - Morel and Madrigal - this is a loaded team.  They could absorb an injury in the rotation, bullpen, or lineup and be fine given the depth 

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I get your point. All things being equal, that means we have a 20% chance of being the team left without a dance partner. Call it 30% if you want to doom boner some mystery teams, whatever. But, all other things are not equal:

• The Cubs have a perfect sized cushion under the luxury tax and all signs point to them coming right up against it and are perfectly in the part of the win curve where these kinds of additions are maximized
• Blue Jays are already into the luxury tax and just lost an arbitration hearing to the face of their franchise, if that tells you anything about their willingness to throw a ton of money around. 
• Signing any of these dudes would put the Rangers into the luxury tax.
• The Angels are projected for 77 wins and a 3% chance to win their division.
• The Giants have a 3.3% chance to win their division.

The price of the three, or two, remaining isn't going to suddenly shoot up once a couple of them sign. It's much more likely teams take themselves out of contention and the cost goes down. 

I would agree with you that it is probably a 20-30% chance they don’t sign any of Boras’ FA. I am not all doom and gloom on this. I just don’t think that even after guys are signed the last one standing won’t have options. Maybe no one pays them what Boras wants and the Cubs get someone at their values price. But there is still a 20-30% chance each player gets one team to bite and pay close to what that player wants. Or at least pay more than the Cubs. 

Edited February 8, 2024 by Rcal10

[CubinNY]

6 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

So this is purely based on my "eye test" analysis, but I don't see how the Cubs don't win 88 to 90 games next year or more if they re-sign Bellinger.  When I watched the team last year, they were devoid in 2 key areas:  Left handed hitting, and coaching (imo)

A few reasons why I'm optimistic:  

1.  I legitimately think Cody Bellinger is one of the best players in baseball when he is on this team.  I'm all-on in the idea that the Cubs have "fixed" him and his approach.  People forget that he was legit the best player in the game in the month of July last year, and he was basically a .820+ ish (if i recall) OPS guy before he got hurt and came back in July to be even better than that.  This is an Arizona/LA kid who translated right away to Chicago baseball.  I also think that he can consistently mantain a high BABIP now because of his new appraoch of putting the ball in play and spraying it all over. He has taken to hitting at Wrigley the way Castellanos did in 2019.

2.  Emergence of Seiya Suzuki:  I don't think we've seen the best from this guy yet, and he clearly turned a corner the 2nd half of last year.  If his new "IDGAF" attitude extrapolates to a full season, he could be a top 20 hitter in baseball.  I expect it to come all together this year with CC at manager and giving him his "mental break" days as needed

3. The Cubs got nothing from left handed hitting last year outside of Belly and some days from Happ.  Now you are adding 2 top LHH prospects in Armstrong and Busch this year, in addition to retaining Tauchman and Happ.  The Cubs can platoon the **** out of teams all year long, similar to the 2021 SF Giants. 

4. Insane Pitching Depth: Up and down the roster, the Cubs have excellent pitching, both left handed and right handed.  This is not even including Ben Brown and Cade Horton and both of them could force their way up in 2024.  They have more pitching talent than they know what to do with.

5.  Coaching - the Cubs lost a ton of close games last year, and they added probably the best manager in the game.

IDK guys, I'm really optimistic this year.  BTW the Cubs have 2 bonafide starting caliber players coming off of their bench - Morel and Madrigal - this is a loaded team.  They could absorb an injury in the rotation, bullpen, or lineup and be fine given the depth 

I think you and Jed are on the same page. They think they are on the edge of a really good team for a long time. We shall see. 

[Rcal10]

38 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I think you and Jed are on the same page. They think they are on the edge of a really good team for a long time. We shall see. 

I think someone has been sipping too much cubbie kool aid. I can see low to mid 80’s team. High 80’s to 90 with a bright future, I have to really be all in with Jed and the FO. And I am not there.

[Bertz]

9 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I get your point. All things being equal, that means we have a 20% chance of being the team left without a dance partner. Call it 30% if you want to doom boner some mystery teams, whatever. But, all other things are not equal:

• The Cubs have a perfect sized cushion under the luxury tax and all signs point to them coming right up against it and are perfectly in the part of the win curve where these kinds of additions are maximized
• Blue Jays are already into the luxury tax and just lost an arbitration hearing to the face of their franchise, if that tells you anything about their willingness to throw a ton of money around. 
• Signing any of these dudes would put the Rangers into the luxury tax.
• The Angels are projected for 77 wins and a 3% chance to win their division.
• The Giants have a 3.3% chance to win their division.

The price of the three, or two, remaining isn't going to suddenly shoot up once a couple of them sign. It's much more likely teams take themselves out of contention and the cost goes down. 

Yeah to your point I'm not sure there's any team besides the Cubs and Giants that's more than 50/50 to jump in and grab a guy.  If Jed's comfortable ending up with any of them I don't think he needs to worry about a quick run of signings and him left without a bag.  If anything it's the opposite because some teams would want one or two guys but not others.  E.g. the Giants are not going to sign Bellinger if the miss on Chapman.  I think the Cubs and Angels are the only teams that would potentially be in on all 4.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Yeah to your point I'm not sure there's any team besides the Cubs and Giants that's more than 50/50 to jump in and grab a guy.  If Jed's comfortable ending up with any of them I don't think he needs to worry about a quick run of signings and him left without a bag.  If anything it's the opposite because some teams would want one or two guys but not others.  E.g. the Giants are not going to sign Bellinger if the miss on Chapman.  I think the Cubs and Angels are the only teams that would potentially be in on all 4.

I think we are closing in a a point where Jed needs to turn the screws a bit. Maybe have an actual trade he is comfortable with lined up and go to Boras with a offer for any of those guys. Let it be known if they can not negotiate to a satisfactory number he will move on. But then he needs to move on. I am fine with that. He should not sit back without other options ready to go if he does miss out. In fact, he should have options for any direction it goes with Boras. Obviously depending on who Jed decides he wants or who he ends up negotiating for, there should be different plans. Simplest form of this is just using the Astros as a trade partner. Maybe he has a Bregman or Tucker deal lined up. Well, obviously depending on who he could sign beteeen Bellinger or Chapman, he has something else also lined up. This is just an example. Before people lose their minds, I am not suggesting the Astros would trade either of these guys. Right now Jed is allowing the market and Boras to dictate what he will do with this team. And I just wish he got aggressive and actually has other options and showed he isn’t afraid to do something else. Pitchers and catchers report in a week. 

[squally1313]

Honestly spring training is way too long for a sport like baseball. These dudes are all training year round anyways, it doesn't take 6 weeks to learn signs and bunt coverages. Dexter Fowler shocked the team on February 25th and then went out and OPSed 1100 in April that year. 

Jed obviously has multiple plans and has been in plenty of contact with Boras and the names he wants. As long as they're all still out there, no one is dictating anything. 

[Backtobanks]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think we are closing in a a point where Jed needs to turn the screws a bit. Maybe have an actual trade he is comfortable with lined up and go to Boras with a offer for any of those guys. Let it be known if they can not negotiate to a satisfactory number he will move on. But then he needs to move on. I am fine with that. He should not sit back without other options ready to go if he does miss out. In fact, he should have options for any direction it goes with Boras. Obviously depending on who Jed decides he wants or who he ends up negotiating for, there should be different plans. Simplest form of this is just using the Astros as a trade partner. Maybe he has a Bregman or Tucker deal lined up. Well, obviously depending on who he could sign beteeen Bellinger or Chapman, he has something else also lined up. This is just an example. Before people lose their minds, I am not suggesting the Astros would trade either of these guys. Right now Jed is allowing the market and Boras to dictate what he will do with this team. And I just wish he got aggressive and actually has other options and showed he isn’t afraid to do something else. Pitchers and catchers report in a week. 

Are you kidding?   Jed would refuse to trade the prospects necessary to acquire someone like Bergman or Tucker or anyone else that would really have an impact on this team.