Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Tryptamine]

Yes, why improve the part of the team that was the reason you missed the playoffs in the first place. Instead Jed will hope for internal improvement. It's the same stubbornness that caused him to not go out and get a reliever at the trade deadline. He may be able to create a farm, but I have severe doubts about Jed's ability to put together a team. 

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Yes, why improve the part of the team that was the reason you missed the playoffs in the first place. Instead Jed will hope for internal improvement. It's the same stubbornness that caused him to not go out and get a reliever at the trade deadline. He may be able to create a farm, but I have severe doubts about Jed's ability to put together a team. 

Suggesting the pen ALONE cost the Cubs the playoffs is exactly the exaggeration I was referring too. Also, the pen could very well be better with young guys filling in. No one said trot out the exact same guys and expect it to be better. Most are saying minor league guys are closer to contributing this year. Also, there is more certainty in roles this year and very possibly a better manager to handle the pen. Do you want to spend $20M on the pen and then have maybe $12M for one more position player? Sure, I would love if they signed Hader and Robertson and then signed Bellinger and maybe Chapman. That would be great. But Jed and Tom don’t work that way. So they have to pick and choose what works best within the budget they have. If it is $237M I don’t see how they would even consider a high leverage guy. They don’t have the funds. If they agree to go to $257M maybe that does allow someone in that $8-$12M range. Maybe they will get one. But not if they plan on staying under the LT. . 

[CubinNY]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Suggesting the pen ALONE cost the Cubs the playoffs is exactly the exaggeration I was referring too. Also, the pen could very well be better with young guys filling in. No one said trot out the exact same guys and expect it to be better. Most are saying minor league guys are closer to contributing this year. Also, there is more certainty in roles this year and very possibly a better manager to handle the pen. Do you want to spend $20M on the pen and then have maybe $12M for one more position player? Sure, I would love if they signed Hader and Robertson and then signed Bellinger and maybe Chapman. That would be great. But Jed and Tom don’t work that way. So they have to pick and choose what works best within the budget they have. If it is $237M I don’t see how they would even consider a high leverage guy. They don’t have the funds. If they agree to go to $257M maybe that does allow someone in that $8-$12M range. Maybe they will get one. But not if they plan on staying under the LT. . 

lol the Cubs lost over 30 games that they had the lead in when the pen was pitching. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Just now, CubinNY said:

lol the Cubs lost over 30 games that they had the lead in when the pen was pitching. 

What was the league average for teams in this stat? 

[Bertz]

Not pulling in Robertson annoys me.  I wonder if he wanted a guarantee of the closer job.  He's about 25 saves away from 200 for his career, and might want to hit that milestone before he retires.

Saw a little smoke around Bellinger and the Angels last night, shortly after the Cubs put out a "we'd totally be fine giving CF to PCA" message through Morosi.  That's good, hopefully that's a sign this whole process finally starts moving.

[CubinNY]

7 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

What was the league average for teams in this stat? 

The Cubs ranked 14 out of 30. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The Cubs ranked 14 out of 30. 

Gasp?

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The Cubs ranked 14 out of 30. 

So average. No one suggests they had a great pen. I do agree they should have added a pen arm at the deadline. Similar to what the Dbacks did. My guess is if they did they would have made the playoffs. 

[CubinNY]

47 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Gasp?

Whataboutism applies to baseball too. 

[Backtobanks]

12 hours ago, Stratos said:

Yankees blowing smoke over Bellinger?

https://www.mlb.com/yankees/news/aaron-judge-expected-to-bat-third-play-center-field-in-2024

Yanks have some solid OF prospects though.

Who needs solid defense, when you have Judge and Soto offensively to counteract it.

[Petrey10]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

The Cubs ranked 14 out of 30. 

I mean bad teams and bullpen use could sway that.

 

 

I don’t think it’s a perfect stat… but also we were pretty damn close to the playoffs too so we didn’t need all 30 of those to be wins. 2-3 changes a lot of things

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

I mean bad teams and bullpen use could sway that.

 

 

I don’t think it’s a perfect stat… but also we were pretty damn close to the playoffs too so we didn’t need all 30 of those to be wins. 2-3 changes a lot of things

that's really the point of pointing this out. I think the bullpen was poorly managed by Ross, but there is a chicken/egg thing going on. The genesis of this line of argument was that the pen wasn't the reason why the Cubs didn't make the playoffs. Maybe not THE reason, but the most important reason.

[Bertz]

With the relief market moving at a pretty good clip, including guys I actually wanted in Robertson and Stephenson starting to come off the board, this is kind of where I'm at with the free agents. 

Guys I'd be happy with:

- Ryan Brasier

Guys I'd be okay with:

- Ryne Stanek

- Scott Alexander

- Jake Diekman

- Hector Neris

There's a million options on the trade market, so it's not a panic situation, but I think on the free agent market anyone beyond these five I'd probably rather simply go without than guarantee them the money and more importantly the roster spot.

[CubinNY]

Brett has a note that says the Angels are talking to Boras about Bellinger. Might be a plant, but if any org is going to overextend itself for a player like Bellinger, it's the Angels. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

that's really the point of pointing this out. I think the bullpen was poorly managed by Ross, but there is a chicken/egg thing going on. The genesis of this line of argument was that the pen wasn't the reason why the Cubs didn't make the playoffs. Maybe not THE reason, but the most important reason.

It was a reason. Not the reason. Probably not the most important reason. Honestly I don’t think anyone can point to one thing and suggest it was the most important reason. That said, it does need to be better. I just think it will be with some of the young arms coming up. Unless they were going to dedicate $15m-$25M to the pen I don’t see how they could overall the pen. I would still like to add another guy. But the improvement has to come from better management of the pen, guys knowing their place this year, sooner than last year, and young arms coming up and producing. 
Even with all the missteps starting the season(Mancini, Hosmer, Barnhardt) not starting the season with Morel etc…., had the Cubs added another pen arm at the deadline, they probably make the playoffs.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

It was a reason. Not the reason. Probably not the most important reason. Honestly I don’t think anyone can point to one thing and suggest it was the most important reason. That said, it does need to be better. I just think it will be with some of the young arms coming up. Unless they were going to dedicate $15m-$25M to the pen I don’t see how they could overall the pen. I would still like to add another guy. But the improvement has to come from better management of the pen, guys knowing their place this year, sooner than last year, and young arms coming up and producing. 
Even with all the missteps starting the season(Mancini, Hosmer, Barnhardt) not starting the season with Morel etc…., had the Cubs added another pen arm at the deadline, they probably make the playoffs.

I will, It was the bullpen. 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I will, It was the bullpen. 

15th in fWAR, 17th in win probability added. Both numbers that you would like to be better, obviously, as a team with playoff aspirations.

When you miss the playoffs by what...2 games? You can point your fingers a lot of places. The 15th best team in offensive production at first base got 2 fWAR last year. We got zero. There's two. We got negative production (-0.7) from the DH spot, though the 15th team only got 0.5. These seem like easier problems to fix. 

I can't wrap my head around trying to 'fix' a bullpen given that each dude throws like 50 innings and there's going to be 15-20 of them and like, the FG preview for the Cubs last year had the top bullpen names listed as Brandon Hughes (13 innings), Manuel Rodriguez (0 innings), Brad Boxberger (20 innings), and Rowan Wick (0 innings). I basically just treat like the BABIP of roster construction. Hopefully someone there knows what they're doing (and hopefully Counsell knows how to use whatever he has), but trying to discern the Staneks from the Brasiers of the world (assuming everyone agrees that giving Josh Hader $90m is dumb) is the definition of splitting hairs to me. 

[LBiittner]

48 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

 

Wow the hot cub news hitting the headlines: Ian Happ bought a new condo. Is this like trade evaluations, we have to wait 3-5 years before we can declare whether he got a good deal?

Sportswriters are starving for something to write.

 

 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Brett has a note that says the Angels are talking to Boras about Bellinger. Might be a plant, but if any org is going to overextend itself for a player like Bellinger, it's the Angels. 

The thing about the Angels is we can say with damn near 100% certainty they are not crossing the LT line.  We've been chalking them up as the most likely landing spot for one of Snell/Montgomery, so if they do jump in the fray for Bellinger (which I do ultimately doubt) it makes it that much easier to pull one of the pitchers down.

I think to me the chalk outcome for the big 4 is

Bellinger -> Cubs

Snell -> Angels

Montgomery -> Rangers

Chapman -> Giants

Since it sounds like Jed's plan is to pull one of these four down, with Bellinger simply being the preference, I'm not too worried unless another team jumps into the fray.  The Yankees or Mariners pulling down Snell seems like the most likely confounding scenario.

[UMFan83]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

So average. No one suggests they had a great pen. I do agree they should have added a pen arm at the deadline. Similar to what the Dbacks did. My guess is if they did they would have made the playoffs. 

Id be interested in knowing how many of those games were blown in late August - October specifically since it seemed like the Cubs had a pretty lock down pen for a good 3 months but were heavily relying on Fulmer, Leiter, Merryweather, Alzolay, then Fulmer went down, Alzolay went down, Leiter completely tanked and the last 3 weeks of the season we had no horsefeathers idea who was going to get the outs needed to finish off a game (other that we knew Cuas was going to pitch almost every game).  Was it because of overwork?  Not sure but the pen was super thin beyond those 3 guys (and Ross's reluctance to try guys like Little down the stretch).

If the numbers are as I suspect (but could be wrong) this is still a problem that needs to be addressed.  It's great that you can identify 3ish lockdown relievers from scraps but I imagine the lack of bullpen depth beyond those guys was a big factor in the late season slide and finishing 1 game out of a playoff spot.  Would seem foolish to not make at least one decent investment in a reliever.

 

Edit:  Just did some research: 7 of the 30 blown lead losses (23.3%) came in the final 22 games of the season (13.5% of the season).  This doesn't include blown leads that we still managed to win of which there were a few in that stretch as well.

Edited January 26, 2024 by UMFan83

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Id be interested in knowing how many of those games were blown in late August - October specifically since it seemed like the Cubs had a pretty lock down pen for a good 3 months but were heavily relying on Fulmer, Leiter, Merryweather, Alzolay, then Fulmer went down, Alzolay went down, Leiter completely tanked and the last 3 weeks of the season we had no horsefeathers idea who was going to get the outs needed to finish off a game (other that we knew Cuas was going to pitch almost every game).  Was it because of overwork?  Not sure but the pen was super thin beyond those 3 guys (and Ross's reluctance to try guys like Little down the stretch).

If the numbers are as I suspect (but could be wrong) this is still a problem that needs to be addressed.  It's great that you can identify 3ish lockdown relievers from scraps but I imagine the lack of bullpen depth beyond those guys was a big factor in the late season slide and finishing 1 game out of a playoff spot.  Would seem foolish to not make at least one decent investment in a reliever.

 

Edit:  Just did some research: 7 of the 30 blown lead losses (23.3%) came in the final 22 games of the season (13.5% of the season).  This doesn't include blown leads that we still managed to win of which there were a few in that stretch as well.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that the pen was good. They were average. And I already said they should add someone. I just think people remember the last month and exaggerate how bad the pen was. It absolutely tanked at the end. They absolutely need to add another guy they can count on. And they need some young arms to step up. But if they just added a guy at the deadline last year they would have been in the playoffs. You know 2 teams that blew more saves than the Cubs last year? Dbacks and Rangers. You know what they did near the deadline? They added to the pen. 

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think anyone is arguing that the pen was good. They were average. And I already said they should add someone. I just think people remember the last month and exaggerate how bad the pen was. It absolutely tanked at the end. They absolutely need to add another guy they can count on. And they need some young arms to step up. But if they just added a guy at the deadline last year they would have been in the playoffs. You know 2 teams that blew more saves than the Cubs last year? Dbacks and Rangers. You know what they did near the deadline? They added to the pen. 

The Rangers also added Dave Robertson and the Dbacks retained Sewald. Meanwhile the Cubs have added a reliver who alternates between good and horrifically bad.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

The Rangers also added Dave Robertson and the Dbacks retained Sewald. Meanwhile the Cubs have added a reliver who alternates between good and horrifically bad.

But they got to the WS last year with a worse pen. Again, I want to add to the pen.  But I want a better offense more. If they had an unlimited budget I would be all for adding Hader and Stephenson. But they don’t. So they have to hope they find someone in that $6M to $8M range and get better production from what they do have from last year, by managing the pen better, and hopefully a young guy like Palancia, Little or Brown or another arm close to the majors steps up. No, it is not ideal. But it is what I expected. 

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But they got to the WS last year with a worse pen. Again, I want to add to the pen.  But I want a better offense more. If they had an unlimited budget I would be all for adding Hader and Stephenson. But they don’t. So they have to hope they find someone in that $6M to $8M range and get better production from what they do have from last year, by managing the pen better, and hopefully a young guy like Palancia, Little or Brown or another arm close to the majors steps up. No, it is not ideal. But it is what I expected. 

They didn't have to do anything that extravagant. They could have added Brasier and Robertson for like 17M, which was 100% doable if they aren't going to address 3B.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

They didn't have to do anything that extravagant. They could have added Brasier and Robertson for like 17M, which was 100% doable if they aren't going to address 3B.

The thing that keeps me from being too riled up is the difference in expectation, ceiling, and certainty between Brasier + Robertson and like, Almonte + Stanek or whatever is basically nothing.  If they miss they miss, and while you can't bat 1.000 they're responsible for how the pen turns out.  But in-advance hand wringing about which of the non-elite arms get brought in, or pretending that below the elite level that spending more raises the certainty dramatically, just doesn't do it for me.