Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I freely admit that I am not a professional baseball player, never was, and have never known one personally. However, if I were in the position to be offered multi-millions of dollars to play baseball, I would be looking to wrap up the negotiations as soon as possible so I could carry on with my offseason schedule in peace without having to worry about where I was going to live and play baseball for the next 3-8 years. But I'm also impulsive. I need to know stuff about my future to make me comfortable in my surroundings. When I was in college I would go to my classroom a week before classes started just so I'd make sure I knew where I was going. I'd be the same way I think with my career. After I graduated and went on my interviews I didn't take the first offer, but I didn't wait to take the offer from the place I wanted to work at either. So, although I cannot put myself in the position of a multimillionaire, I can try if unsuccessfully, to give my perspective. It would do psychological damage to not know where I was going to live up to the last weeks before the season starts.

I am the same way. I want more certainty in my life. I know people will say players don’t have to worry about anything because they are set for life. I get that. But some people have a personality that just makes them want to have a plan in place asap. I don’t think it matters if they are set for life or not. But apparently the guys still out there don’t think like we do. Because set for life or not, I would imagine they would like to know where they will be spending the next few/several years. And remember, many of these guys have families. They have wives who will want to know where they will be living and raising a family. I couldn’t do it. I would be have been signed by now. 
Also, one thing to consider on guys waiting is a team could make a move that would then take them out on a guy. Cubs may have done that to Hoskins by trading for Busch. What is Bellinger really wants to come here and Cubs have an offer in, but then Jed gets a deal too good to pass up on someone? Bregman, Bichette, Tucker, Guerrero, etc….. just examples. Bellinger loses the Cubs option and could end up taking less money because of a depressed market. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

40 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Yeah I think I get it for guys like Bellinger.  Boras is basically waiting for a team to blink but if the Cubs are supposedly still 3-4 transactions away from completing their offseason I'm not sure why there's no movement on relievers or other areas of need.

Boras usually makes his big bucks when teams make a stupid impulse move. Like the rockies did with Bryant. And look how terrible that's playing out, unluckily for boras it seems like no one is playing along with him this year

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Boras usually makes his big bucks when teams make a stupid impulse move. Like the rockies did with Bryant. And look how terrible that's playing out, unluckily for boras it seems like no one is playing along with him this year

Right. This might be the year Boras loses. 

[chopsx9]

57 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Heyward was 2 years younger, coming off basically a four year stretch of playing to a 5 win pace, and yes, outperformed Bellinger in his free agent year. Not sure how you get to a 5.6 to 4.8 difference not being 'significantly' different but Bellinger putting up an offensive number of 26.3 vs Heyward's 22.2 is a 'much better offensive season'.

So if you don't include Bellinger's 2 seasons where he was injured and played in about half the games his 4 season average is 4.3 vs Heyward's 4.7 .  If you extend that to a 5 year stretch Bellinger's slightly ahead although Heyward probably gets the nod as he's lite a few games.  The significance of the offensive number is that it is unadjusted and it's already higher than Heyward's.  Bellinger's highs were/are also much higher than Heyward's and he also has more positional flexibility. You want to state Heyward's season was better - okay - I just don't think " Heyward was a significantly better baseball player going into that offseason than Bellinger" bears out.

[SOFNR]

If the Cubs manage to sign Bellinger, or aquire another great bat to take his place, I don't really care whether it happened the first day of FA or the last day before Spring Training. The problem is that each day that passes we get closer to an outcome where we don't make either of those moves. It's clear Jed is willing to wait out that market. He might lose the standoff. Plan B's get harder to aquire as teams get set for the season. There's still a chance we go into 2024 with a worse offense then we ended 2023. That's not ok with me. It's definitely a significant risk to wait around and hope one of your needs falls to you at the best price possible. I certainly understand fans getting nervous. I don't think it would really be shocking to anybody if Hoyer grabs a couple cheap bats, a reliever, and stays under the tax again. It may not have been the original intent but it's pretty easy to envision as February approaches.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I understand. But what I am saying is IF they do sign Bellinger is it even worth chasing a dumpster dive FA pitcher and bat, if they don’t go over this year. Do you want another Hosmer at league minimum ? Or some clown reclamation project pitcher at $2M. Might as well keep what they have and hope a young guy gets the job done. I would guess the young guy has as good a chance as the cheap player. 

Well they did it last year so not going to assume they won't do it again.  Fulmer + Jonathan Villar incoming.

[LBiittner]

Ouch 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I mean, and I don't want to sound overly short or anything, but it's guys with families, relationships, maybe small kids, etc etc etc deciding where they want to spend the next 3-8 years of their life? For a job that doesn't technically start for another month? Like, would you be in a rush? If you're a good player and you want to go to a winner, wouldn't you maybe try to wait and see if a certain team made any other moves?

There's not much back and forth right now I imagine.  It's a staring contest right now.  Boras has a general number he wants and teams aren't matching it, so he's waiting them out until they match it or get close.

Someone like Paxton who can only demand a short-term or 1 year deal has to sign sooner than later because this year is important to his earnings next offseason.  A guy like Bellinger or Snell etc who will sign a longterm deal doesn't have to worry much about his stats being affected by a late ST this season, the money over the next several years is much more important.  Snell can wait until the trade deadline if he wants like Kimbrel, it doesn't really matter.  Burning 13m of a half season of salary is better than leaving 20m on the table.

Hoskins probably signs before the other Boras guys.  Bryce Harper only signed in March.

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

If the Cubs manage to sign Bellinger, or aquire another great bat to take his place, I don't really care whether it happened the first day of FA or the last day before Spring Training. The problem is that each day that passes we get closer to an outcome where we don't make either of those moves. It's clear Jed is willing to wait out that market. He might lose the standoff. Plan B's get harder to aquire as teams get set for the season. There's still a chance we go into 2024 with a worse offense then we ended 2023. That's not ok with me. It's definitely a significant risk to wait around and hope one of your needs falls to you at the best price possible. I certainly understand fans getting nervous. I don't think it would really be shocking to anybody if Hoyer grabs a couple cheap bats, a reliever, and stays under the tax again. It may not have been the original intent but it's pretty easy to envision as February approaches.

Look at it the other way though.  Who are the teams that you could still see handing out a 9 figure deal?  Yankees and Angels for sure.  Rangers, Blue Jays, and Giants are unlikely but possible?  There's a slim chance that some unlikely mystery team like the Nats wants to make Bellinger their modern day Jayson Werth?  We as Cubs fans are worried about Jed losing the proverbial game of Musical Chairs, but honestly it currently looks like there are more chairs than players.

This is part of why locking in Imanaga and Busch was so big.  I think it's pretty clear the team wants Bellinger back, but if he goes elsewhere the team can pivot to one of the other three and not really lose that much (I might argue that Bellinger helps the 2024 Cubs the least but that's beside the point).  

You can play a similar game with the DH options, in fact Ken Rosenthal kind of already did this morning.  Again if you don't anchor on one specific guy you've gotta have things get pretty team friendly pretty fast.

I'm personally most worried about the remaining reliever.  There's only like 2 FA arms left I'd be happy with, and like 3-4 more I'd be okay with.

[Rcal10]

43 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Well they did it last year so not going to assume they won't do it again.  Fulmer + Jonathan Villar incoming.

They might. But if they do that is terrible mismanagement of funds for a large market team. If they are going to stay under this year they absolutely should have gone over last year at the deadline. Personally I think they will go over. But yiu could be right. 

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Look at it the other way though.  Who are the teams that you could still see handing out a 9 figure deal?  Yankees and Angels for sure.  Rangers, Blue Jays, and Giants are unlikely but possible?  There's a slim chance that some unlikely mystery team like the Nats wants to make Bellinger their modern day Jayson Werth?  We as Cubs fans are worried about Jed losing the proverbial game of Musical Chairs, but honestly it currently looks like there are more chairs than players.

This is part of why locking in Imanaga and Busch was so big.  I think it's pretty clear the team wants Bellinger back, but if he goes elsewhere the team can pivot to one of the other three and not really lose that much (I might argue that Bellinger helps the 2024 Cubs the least but that's beside the point).  

You can play a similar game with the DH options, in fact Ken Rosenthal kind of already did this morning.  Again if you don't anchor on one specific guy you've gotta have things get pretty team friendly pretty fast.

I'm personally most worried about the remaining reliever.  There's only like 2 FA arms left I'd be happy with, and like 3-4 more I'd be okay with.

I am leaning to this way of thinking. There is still time and still players available. I have to believe they will spend past the first LT line. I think they will add $50M to the current payroll. At least I hope so. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Wouldn’t it help him to know what offense he’ll be in so he can prepare more better?

[Tryptamine]

Not Cub related, but MLB needs to take the Orioles from Angelos. It's an absolute embarrassment that they have a historically strong farm, while having several all-star to MVP quality players who haven't even hit arbitration yet and they just refuse to spend. I feel bad for the fans, when the owner just refuses to put any financial backing into a team that is on the verge of not only being a world series contender, but a favorite with a couple moves. 

[LBiittner]

37 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Not Cub related, but MLB needs to take the Orioles from Angelos. It's an absolute embarrassment that they have a historically strong farm, while having several all-star to MVP quality players who haven't even hit arbitration yet and they just refuse to spend. I feel bad for the fans, when the owner just refuses to put any financial backing into a team that is on the verge of not only being a world series contender, but a favorite with a couple moves. 

Aren't they being sold to Rubenstein?

[Tryptamine]

27 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Aren't they being sold to Rubenstein?

Supposedly. 

[UMFan83]

I cant find threads easily on this forum anymore so not bumping any Seiya threads of David Ross threads.  Just putting this here for laughs

 

 

[squally1313]

Hoskins to Milwaukee. Of course. 

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Hoskins to Milwaukee. Of course. 

Figures. Smart move for them. Bush better hit

[Derwood]

No official report on that move

[s2obed]

Moore to Angels $9m for 1 year -Heyman

[WhyCantWeWin]

Surprised he got a 2 year deal. Boras wins there 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, s2obed said:

Moore to Angels $9m for 1 year -Heyman

So he was a little more than thawv’s prediction of 2/$8M. At least it seems things are moving.

[s2obed]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

So he was a little more than thawv’s prediction of 2/$8M. At least it seems things are moving.

Spring training report dates are less than a month away. I’m thinking we’ll see a lot more movement.

[CubbyBlue2008]

Tick tock Jed.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

Someone like Paxton who can only demand a short-term or 1 year deal has to sign sooner than later because this year is important to his earnings next offseason.  A guy like Bellinger or Snell etc who will sign a longterm deal doesn't have to worry much about his stats being affected by a late ST this season, the money over the next several years is much more important.  Snell can wait until the trade deadline if he wants like Kimbrel, it doesn't really matter.  Burning 13m of a half season of salary is better than leaving 20m on the table.

Hoskins probably signs before the other Boras guys.  Bryce Harper only signed in March.

Quoted for truth.