Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rex Buckingham]

I'm ok with Kyle not getting extended. At best, I'd offer him 1 year at a time if he's good. I love him and what he's done, but hopefully our young pitching comes along/we acquire good young pitching and we don't need to rely on him next year - or sooner. 

[Rcal10]

13 hours ago, Stratos said:

Most people on the other board disagreed with me last Spring Training when I kept repeating that the Cubs were weak in the late innings including closer.  They said we'd "figure it out".  Well I was right and we threw wins down the toilet the first 2 months trying to "figure it out" and the lack of pen depth hurt us in Sept when Jed didn't acquire enough pen help at the deadline.

We had a bad pen last year for 3 months of the season and when it was effective it was held together with duct tape and nothing has changed on the roster so far besides acquiring a below average arm from the Dodgers that they didn't want because he's not very good.  He can compete for a spot in ST but he shouldn't be penciled in for anything.

They lost Fulmer and 1 arm is going to solve their pen issues?  They can add 1 good arm and then they're 1 injury away from being ineffective again.

Rucker sucks.  Our lefties Smyly is meh and Little is unknown and walks lots of guys.  Cuas has good stuff but walks guys.  Almonte has avg stuff and walks guys.  Leiter Jr was abused last summer and faded down the stretch, will he be effective again?  Alzolay was abused also and got hurt, will he get hurt again?  Wesneski is all over the place, Thompson looked bad last year.  Assad can be solid in a swing role.  Brown might stay stretched out in Iowa.

If our strategy is to just throw random arms at the wall and hope a handful stick i'm not enthused by this.  The pen is not a strength and probably won't be with just 1 addition.

 

I don’t agree the pen “sucked” last year. And really stats don’t prove they sucked. They were not a top one, but they were middle of the road. They did wear out at the end. I also don’t agree when you say they didn’t have a closer. Once Alzolay was given the chance he was as good as any closer in he game. Him not there from the start is on Ross. I do agree with you they should have added another arm at the deadline , much like what the Dbacks did(whose pen was worse than the Cubs)

That said, you still did not say who should be in the pen now and who you feel they should add. They have probably 10+guys now who can make a case for the pen. But of these 10, who do you have in the team? And how to they supplement?

My basic point is no matter who they add now, he is going to be someone who will replace one of the 10 guys they have as potential pen arms, and not definitely be better than who he is replacing. It’s easy to yell into the wind that they need more pen arms. Even easier to claim being right about it every time the pen blows a game. What isn’t easy is to say who you actually want, what you are willing to spend and who he replaces. 

Edited January 21, 2024 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

22 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

I'm ok with Kyle not getting extended. At best, I'd offer him 1 year at a time if he's good. I love him and what he's done, but hopefully our young pitching comes along/we acquire good young pitching and we don't need to rely on him next year - or sooner. 

It seems likely now that if Stroman had opted in Jed wouldn't have done anything with the rotation.  I think extending Hendricks is something that made more sense then so that you dont have two rotation spots to fill at the end of '24.  

[BigbadB]

14 hours ago, Stratos said:

If our strategy is to just throw random arms at the wall and hope a handful stick i'm not enthused by this.  The pen is not a strength and probably won't be with just 1 addition.

 

You just explained the history of ML bullpens everywhere. The names being tossed around as replacement relievers were not even people anyone knew 3 years ago, minus a few guys who somehow make a living as a late inning reliever like Hader. 3 years from now, the entire Cubs bullpen will likely be other guys who A)we never heard of 3 years prior B) failed in their attempt to win a gig in the starting rotation C) retreads that they probably would have been better off using minor leaguers instead of hoping for lightning in a bottle. 

Outside of Meriweather, the guys they brought in from outside to be relievers last year was not something to write home about. Might be better off finding the bullpen help you need from within, while also hoping for improvement from the guys you already have. Leiter was looking solid until he became the main guy to bring in for every sign of trouble. With bullpen help, you just don't know what you are going to get. 

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, BigbadB said:

You just explained the history of ML bullpens everywhere. The names being tossed around as replacement relievers were not even people anyone knew 3 years ago, minus a few guys who somehow make a living as a late inning reliever like Hader. 3 years from now, the entire Cubs bullpen will likely be other guys who A)we never heard of 3 years prior B) failed in their attempt to win a gig in the starting rotation C) retreads that they probably would have been better off using minor leaguers instead of hoping for lightning in a bottle. 

Outside of Meriweather, the guys they brought in from outside to be relievers last year was not something to write home about. Might be better off finding the bullpen help you need from within, while also hoping for improvement from the guys you already have. Leiter was looking solid until he became the main guy to bring in for every sign of trouble. With bullpen help, you just don't know what you are going to get. 

The Cubs have been more or less successful employing a risky strategy. Last year it didn't work out. Bullpens outside of outlier examples are volatile, but if/when they think they are ready to compete for a world series I hope they are more willing to mitigate risk.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As an illustration, here are the highest AAV RP signed last offseason and where their 2023 performance would've ranked in the Cubs pen pecking order (roughly):

• Diaz: N/A (missed the year w/ injury)
• Jansen: 3rd
• Montero: 6th
• Rogers: 3rd
• Kimbrel: T-2nd
• Robertson: 2nd
• Suarez: T-4th

The Cubs 2nd and 3rd best relievers last year were waiver wire pickups, and so were some of the names we've groaned at not signing as FA this year. The previous year their best reliever was Robertson, who was barely in the top 25 of *reliever* contracts given out that year.  

The point is not that we should be glad to not have signed a particular reliever(except for Hader, that is a genuinely bad use of resources), but rather more than any other area, bullpen is a place where you have to be right/lucky more than treat contract or offseason perception as the truest indicator of quality.  If they're only adding one more bullpen arm I'd like it to be a trade to try and buy a little more certainty along with potentially years of control, but I also can understand that's likely to be a bit of a rich ask if the FO believes as much in their near-ready arms and pitching development as much as they do.  Of the FA options still out there, I'm most intrigued by Brasier and Stanek, but there's a bunch of names still up and down the spectrum who you don't have to squint hard to see them taking a step forward.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, thawv said:

Spending another 35 million on relievers isn't even a consideration for them.  I'd be happy with adding Matt Moore and calling it a day.  That would mean that 3 guys currently in the pen will not be on the OD roster.  

I never mentioned a dollar number needed to improve the pen, and definitely not 35m.

[Bertz]

The Cubs are a "benefit of the doubt" team when it comes to acquiring and developing relievers.  They're not infallible like the Rays, but since the reorg post 2019 their list of wins is much longer and more impactful than their list of losses.

That said, this other reliever needs to have a minimum level of certainty and track record.  Almonte is a developmental add who you can easily see ending up as a Fulmer-caliber part of the 2024 pen.  But this team needs a guy who you could trust closing a game right away on April 1st, no wish casting required.  Of the names we've seen bandied about I think Ryne Stanek is probably the minimum acceptable option in my mind.  I don't actually think he clears the bar of what I want on a performance standpoint, but the stuff is so hyper-elite I'd make peace with him as the big addition.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

The Cubs have been more or less successful employing a risky strategy. Last year it didn't work out. Bullpens outside of outlier examples are volatile, but if/when they think they are ready to compete for a world series I hope they are more willing to mitigate risk.

I think they do think they will be a playoff team in 24’. And I don’t think they will ever load up on the pen at the start of the season. Cubs pen was pretty much equal to both the Rangers and Dbacks last year, at the start. They should have added then, but didn’t. Az and Tex did. 

[Post Count Padder]

The Cubs have had success dumpster diving for relievers over the years. Merryweather and Leiter are two big recent finds. You can even point to guys like Hector Rondon and Cahill and Duensing. And relivers can be volatile. So I don't love the idea of allocating a ton of money for the pen but we need another shutdown guy after how badly winded the pen looked in September. Robertson and/or Moore would be good gets. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Post Count Padder said:

The Cubs have had success dumpster diving for relievers over the years. Merryweather and Leiter are two big recent finds. You can even point to guys like Hector Rondon and Cahill and Duensing. And relivers can be volatile. So I don't love the idea of allocating a ton of money for the pen but we need another shutdown guy after how badly winded the pen looked in September. Robertson and/or Moore would be good gets. 

I agree they need to add another pen arm. But just one. Preferably lefty. But if it was between a right handed pitcher they feel can pitch in the 8th or a lefty middle relief pitcher, I would take the righty who can pitch the 8th. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

The Cubs are a "benefit of the doubt" team when it comes to acquiring and developing relievers.  They're not infallible like the Rays, but since the reorg post 2019 their list of wins is much longer and more impactful than their list of losses.

That said, this other reliever needs to have a minimum level of certainty and track record.  Almonte is a developmental add who you can easily see ending up as a Fulmer-caliber part of the 2024 pen.  But this team needs a guy who you could trust closing a game right away on April 1st, no wish casting required.  Of the names we've seen bandied about I think Ryne Stanek is probably the minimum acceptable option in my mind.  I don't actually think he clears the bar of what I want on a performance standpoint, but the stuff is so hyper-elite I'd make peace with him as the big addition.

Not doubting you in this. Just asking a question because I don’t know what to look for to determine which pen arm is better. Why Stanek over Maton? What makes you like him over Maton? 

[LBiittner]

30 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree they need to add another pen arm. But just one. Preferably lefty. But if it was between a right handed pitcher they feel can pitch in the 8th or a lefty middle relief pitcher, I would take the righty who can pitch the 8th. 

I don't know, that's why I'm asking.

Is bullpen construction different today with the rule change regarding a reliever facing 3 batters as opposed to when  joe madden would change relievers as often as every hitter? No more lefty one out guys?

 

[Rcal10]

46 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I don't know, that's why I'm asking.

Is bullpen construction different today with the rule change regarding a reliever facing 3 batters as opposed to when  joe madden would change relievers as often as every hitter? No more lefty one out guys?

 

I don’t know either. I don’t want a LOOGY. I want a lefty, if all is equal, just to change the look for the batters. That lefty has to get right handed batters out too. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

I don't know, that's why I'm asking.

Is bullpen construction different today with the rule change regarding a reliever facing 3 batters as opposed to when  joe madden would change relievers as often as every hitter? No more lefty one out guys?

 

That and I think we see pitching differently. Look at how teams are starting to limit starters: we're probably looking more and more at a six-man rotation being more and more the norm. On top of that we have openers, we have closers, we have multiple inning guys...roles are evolving in the BP greatly right now. Add in the three hitter limit, and now, they changed the pinch-hitter rule in 2024 to "once a team announces a hitter you can't change the pitcher"...guys are both becoming more specialized but also a bit less.

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

That and I think we see pitching differently. Look at how teams are starting to limit starters: we're probably looking more and more at a six-man rotation being more and more the norm. On top of that we have openers, we have closers, we have multiple inning guys...roles are evolving in the BP greatly right now. Add in the three hitter limit, and now, they changed the pinch-hitter rule in 2024 to "once a team announces a hitter you can't change the pitcher"...guys are both becoming more specialized but also a bit less.

What is that rule, actually? If a pitcher comes out to start an inning he has to face one guy, right? So, as an example, if Steele come out to start the 7th, the other team announce a pinch hitter for the lefty who is up, the Cubs can’t pull Steele, right? Is that the only example of the new rule? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What is that rule, actually? If a pitcher comes out to start an inning he has to face one guy, right? So, as an example, if Steele come out to start the 7th, the other team announce a pinch hitter for the lefty who is up, the Cubs can’t pull Steele, right? Is that the only example of the new rule? 

Yes, the rule is if you start warming to begin an inning you have to face at least one hitter.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Not doubting you in this. Just asking a question because I don’t know what to look for to determine which pen arm is better. Why Stanek over Maton? What makes you like him over Maton? 

Phil Maton is basically a righty specialist, almost unplayable against lefties the last two years.  He gets elite spin rates....and that's about it?  He had a sparkling ERA last year but doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals so it looks like luck.

If he was the #2 guy we were adding instead of Almonte it'd be not my first choice but fine.  But Jed needs to aim quite a bit higher for the other reliever. 

Ryne Stanek's peripherals aren't as good as I would like, but he actually does have a history of outperforming them.  His ERA is a run lower than his xFIP for his entire career.  He's also an elite stuff guy.  Of the 347 pitchers who threw more than 50 innings last year, Stanek was 15th in velo and 9th in Stuff+.  He's not my first choice but I'm not going to like flip a table if he's the primary reliever Jed adds.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Phil Maton is basically a righty specialist, almost unplayable against lefties the last two years.  He gets elite spin rates....and that's about it?  He had a sparkling ERA last year but doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals so it looks like luck.

If he was the #2 guy we were adding instead of Almonte it'd be not my first choice but fine.  But Jed needs to aim quite a bit higher for the other reliever. 

Ryne Stanek's peripherals aren't as good as I would like, but he actually does have a history of outperforming them.  His ERA is a run lower than his xFIP for his entire career.  He's also an elite stuff guy.  Of the 347 pitchers who threw more than 50 innings last year, Stanek was 15th in velo and 9th in Stuff+.  He's not my first choice but I'm not going to like flip a table if he's the primary reliever Jed adds.

Ok, thanks. Any lefty you like? Moore/Chapman? Any other right handed arm you like? 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Ok, thanks. Any lefty you like? Moore/Chapman? Any other right handed arm you like? 

David Robertson is a reverse splits guy, so I would sign him in lieu of a lefty.  We know he likes the city and the coaching staff, at his age he's likely just looking for a one year deal, and with a couple hundred saves under his belt he can do the mentor thing for some of our younger relievers.  He's at an age where things can go south in a hurry, but literally everything else about him is perfect for what this team needs.

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

That and I think we see pitching differently. Look at how teams are starting to limit starters: we're probably looking more and more at a six-man rotation being more and more the norm. On top of that we have openers, we have closers, we have multiple inning guys...roles are evolving in the BP greatly right now. Add in the three hitter limit, and now, they changed the pinch-hitter rule in 2024 to "once a team announces a hitter you can't change the pitcher"...guys are both becoming more specialized but also a bit less.

I'm glad we have a good strategist in councell.

But before the rule changes, we can't forget that crazy game when madden was switching pitchers between the mound and left field. I think that half inning took at least 30 minutes. Probably this lead to some of the new rules. LOL

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t agree the pen “sucked” last year. And really stats don’t prove they sucked. They were not a top one, but they were middle of the road. They did wear out at the end. I also don’t agree when you say they didn’t have a closer. Once Alzolay was given the chance he was as good as any closer in he game. Him not there from the start is on Ross. I do agree with you they should have added another arm at the deadline , much like what the Dbacks did(whose pen was worse than the Cubs)

I said they sucked for 3 out of the 6 months of the year, especially in the late innings.  April, May, and Sept.  I didn't say they didn't have a closer, I said they didn't have a closer going into ST or on OD through April and May, which cost them wins.  Sure Ross is at fault for continuing to throw Fulmer into closer situations he wasn't performing well in.

Quote

That said, you still did not say who should be in the pen now and who you feel they should add. They have probably 10+guys now who can make a case for the pen. But of these 10, who do you have in the team? And how to they supplement?

My basic point is no matter who they add now, he is going to be someone who will replace one of the 10 guys they have as potential pen arms, and not definitely be better than who he is replacing. It’s easy to yell into the wind that they need more pen arms. Even easier to claim being right about it every time the pen blows a game. What isn’t easy is to say who you actually want, what you are willing to spend and who he replaces.

I have no idea exactly who they should acquire, that's not my job.  If we assume Wicks gets the #5 SP spot, the Top 8 guys in the pen right now looks like:

Alzolay, Merryweather, Leiter, Smyly, Cuas, Wesneski, Assad, Almonte

Other likely candidates on the 40-man are: 

Rucker, Thompson, Palencia, Little.  They have a few Iowa arms as well.

Everyone but Alzolay, Merryweather, Leiter, and Little project with ERA's above 4 because they just aren't that good and have some kind of big question marks, as does Little with the walk issues.  We can swap Little for e.g. Almonte on the MLB roster.  Alzolay is injury prone, some other guys will inevitably get injured as always happens, and the 2nd group of RHP above aren't exactly quality depth arms.

We have basically the same group of arms from last season.  1 new arm replaces Rucker.  The pen is ok but doesn't appear as a strength on a team already with a pretty average rotation.  We should do better than "ok".

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I said they sucked for 3 out of the 6 months of the year, especially in the late innings.  April, May, and Sept.  I didn't say they didn't have a closer, I said they didn't have a closer going into ST or on OD through April and May, which cost them wins.  Sure Ross is at fault for continuing to throw Fulmer into closer situations he wasn't performing well in.

I have no idea exactly who they should acquire, that's not my job.  If we assume Wicks gets the #5 SP spot, the Top 8 guys in the pen right now looks like:

Alzolay, Merryweather, Leiter, Smyly, Cuas, Wesneski, Assad, Almonte

Other likely candidates on the 40-man are: 

Rucker, Thompson, Palencia, Little.  They have a few Iowa arms as well.

Everyone but Alzolay, Merryweather, Leiter, and Little project with ERA's above 4 because they just aren't that good and have some kind of big question marks, as does Little with the walk issues.  We can swap Little for e.g. Almonte on the MLB roster.  Alzolay is injury prone, some other guys will inevitably get injured as always happens, and the 2nd group of RHP above aren't exactly quality depth arms.

We have basically the same group of arms from last season.  1 new arm replaces Rucker.  The pen is ok but doesn't appear as a strength on a team already with a pretty average rotation.  We should do better than "ok".

I generally agree with you on the guys in the pen. I would say that I do expect Little on the team, however. My guess is either Assad or Wesneski are either traded or start the season as a starter in the minors. But now you want to add multiple other pen arms? Who is certain to be better than whoever they replace? My point is the pen is so volatile anyone on that Cubs roster now could very well be better than anyone they sign. I would like one 8th inning guy added. I just don’t view the pen as bad as you make it out to be. It isn’t a strength. But it is far from terrible. It is average with a chance to be very good if some of the young arms work out. They have the right manager to make that happen and they have been building up to having solid arms for the pen the last few years. 

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm glad we have a good strategist in councell.

But before the rule changes, we can't forget that crazy game when madden was switching pitchers between the mound and left field. I think that half inning took at least 30 minutes. Probably this lead to some of the new rules. LOL

MLB is absolutely implementing rules that speed the game up. Yes, that game was a great example of what they want to avoid. 

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I generally agree with you on the guys in the pen. I would say that I do expect Little on the team, however. My guess is either Assad or Wesneski are either traded or start the season as a starter in the minors. But now you want to add multiple other pen arms? Who is certain to be better than whoever they replace? My point is the pen is so volatile anyone on that Cubs roster now could very well be better than anyone they sign. I would like one 8th inning guy added. I just don’t view the pen as bad as you make it out to be. It isn’t a strength. But it is far from terrible. It is average with a chance to be very good if some of the young arms work out. They have the right manager to make that happen and they have been building up to having solid arms for the pen the last few years. 

Relievers are volatile but it's not random, it's just smaller samples.  The better the pitcher the higher probability they'll perform well.  We can't just count of randomness landing in our favour, not a winning strategy.  An extra reliever isn't that big of deal, just a few million.