Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, Bertz said:

How many non-elite players do you really want locked up long term?  There's an opportunity cost to that path not just with dollars but roster spots.

Well if the Cubs ran their team as a large revenue team I would not want both signed. However if we are being totally honest, IMO,the Cubs are never going to get that elite talent via free agency. So I would take my chances with the team being very competitive the next 3 years with Bellinger and Chapman along with the others they have for 3 more years. If I felt they would be going after Soto next year, I would be fine with them signing one. But I refuse to go down that road again. 
Do you not think a team with Chapman and Bellinger plus what they already have would be favorites in the division for a few years? I do. And it isn’t like they can’t make a trade or two to move thing a around. If Shaw is ready they can move Nico. If PCA is ready they can either move Morel and DH between the Suzuki, Happ, Bellinger and Busch, or they can trade a corner guy. 

[UMFan83]

I'm so thankful I don't have to cheer for that POS.  Would have helped our pen but wanted nothing to do with that booger

[gocubs218]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

That's my read too.  Only question is if they do a full teardown next winter or at the '25 trade deadline.

Paying almost 20 mil a year for a closer the year before you’re about to do a full teardown seems like a weird move. 

[Tryptamine]

I actually think that's a pretty good deal for Hader. it didn't really fit what the Cubs need to do, but it's not bad. Maybe that means Robertson can be had at like 1/12.

[Rob]

8 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Paying almost 20 mil a year for a closer the year before you’re about to do a full teardown seems like a weird move. 

Meh. He's a shutdown reliever. He's going to be easy to move during the teardown as long as his arm is attached to his body. It'll just be a function of how much contract needs eaten.

[mul21]

10 minutes ago, Rob said:

Meh. He's a shutdown reliever. He's going to be easy to move during the teardown as long as his arm is attached to his body. It'll just be a function of how much contract needs eaten.

He got a full NTC included.

[Backtobanks]

51 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

• Younger - Yes, agreed
• Plays a premium defense - He was a negative defender in center last year per FG. In 2022, when he was a positive defender, and played entirely CF, he was the 10th best center fielder in the game defensively. Chapman was 11th in 2022, 7th in 2023. Would argue Chapman is a more valuable defender.
• Premium position - League wide, Centerfield last year had a .249/,316/.414, .316 wOBA line, 3B had a .244/.316/.404 line, so you could argue third is a more premium position.
• Better hitter - Obviously the main debate. Bellinger put up clearly superior numbers in 2023 and has far surpassed that in the past. On the other hand, Bellinger has had 4 good months of offensive baseball in the last three years. Batted ball data loves Chapman, and he's projected to be the better hitter next year. 
• More versatile - Yes, agreed, though it's not like Chapman has ever proven himself unplayable anywhere else, he has 10 innings not at third in his career. Probably can't play short, but who knows on the right side of the infield. 

He was recovering from a devastating injury for two of those years and came back to a great 2023.

 

[Rob]

Just now, mul21 said:

He got a full NTC included.

Which is just a trade bonus with more steps involved.

[Backtobanks]

Trade Brown + Mervis + Assad for Bieber + Naylor (slight overpay by us according to MLBTV)

Trade Busch + Madrigal + Palencia for Kim + Avila (slight over pay by us according to MLBTV)

Sign Bellinger and you still have Morel, PCA, Horton, Shaw, etc. for the future.  Stacked lineup, solid 3B, reasonable salaries, 5 solid starters in the rotation, reasonable salaries, etc.

[thawv]

4 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Moore is one of the guys I was hoping they'd target coming into the offseason, wonder what he's asking for. All those other names mentioned as bullpen targets are underwhelming

I mentioned Moore a couple of months ago on here.  I think 2/8 would be about right?

[thawv]

2 hours ago, username said:

Very random thought, but the recent Boras talk made me think --- has there ever been an agent inducted into the Hall of Fame in a sport?  I'm guessing no.  But if there ever were to be one, certainly it'd have to be Scott, no?  

As a non player, the only thing to vote on for him is his contribution towards the game.   In my opinion, he has done nothing for the game. 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

He was recovering from a devastating injury for two of those years and came back to a great 2023.

 

And that devastating injury, or maybe the mechanical changes he made to handle the devastating injury, made his batted ball profile look pretty abysmal. Besides the fact that it's hard for me to totally buy into the fact that he spent all of 2022 (144 games played, 550 PAs, all in the field) 'recovering' from that injury. 

[Post Count Padder]

Stephenson signed a 3 year deal with the Angels, which feels really stupid. They're not going anywhere.

[We Got The Whole 9]

48 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Stephenson signed a 3 year deal with the Angels, which feels really stupid. They're not going anywhere.

But Orange County tho

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

For me it's all about the flexibility.  Chapman can play 3B and... that's about it, with the exception of DH.  

Bellinger is good in CF, but can also shift to LF or RF based on injuries or other openings on the roster.  Then he can also play a solid 1B.

I'm not worried about Bellinger blocking PCA or other guys in the system, because he is versatile and there will always be a place for him.  Chapman on the other hand could be a guy that ends of occupying a spot that the Cubs really need to free up in a year or two when/if Shaw is ready, or if Busch ends up being decent at 3B.  I just don't like the idea of a long term contract for Chapman when there could very well be better, and cheaper alternatives in the near future.  If he wants to sign a 1 or 2 year deal, then sure, go for it!

I agree with you about Bellinger's versatility.  That ups his value and isn't reflected in his WAR.  He also played 1B for over 50 games last season that actually reduced his WAR because of the big penalty given to playing 1B over CF.  If he had only played CF last season his WAR would have been around 4.5 WAR or possibly higher.

If Chapman doesn't come with a NTC then he can always be dealt in a couple of seasons if needed.  But as others have mentioned Nico is a FA after 2026 and we'll have potentially Shaw, Morel, and Triantos to replace him at 2B.  Nico isn't a guy i'd rush to trade though, I'd be fine holding on to him and just getting a QA pick for him.

The biggest mark on Chapman IMO is the age on a 4-5 year contract, he'll be 31 in April.  On a 6 year deal we'll have Bellinger through his age 33 season.  He's quite young for a FA.

Edited January 20, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, squally1313 said:

To be fair, I don't know if it's that Chapman 'can't' play first or second as much as there's never been any reason to play him anywhere besides third, a premium defensive position where he gives elite defense. Obviously it doesn't help you in the outfield, so Bellinger gets slight credit for being able to play 4 spots. 

I'd bet Bellinger could play 3B and 2B also if he had to.  Belli at 3B anyone?  Haha.

[Stratos]

Wouldn't it be nice if the Cubs signed both Bellinger and Chapman?  Probably would just push us about 25m over the tax line and under the 2nd line if they also wanted to acquire a solid reliever FA or 2.

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

How many non-elite players do you really want locked up long term?  There's an opportunity cost to that path not just with dollars but roster spots.

I'll take as many good players as the budget can afford.  Guys like Bellinger and Chapman usually come at a reasonable # of years, unlike elite players.  Even if they have a NTC you can often trade them too if you want to make room for a prospect down the line to add surplus.  They traded Darvish.

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

Stephenson signed a 3 year deal with the Angels, which feels really stupid. They're not going anywhere.

He can end up being a good flip for them at the deadline 

[thawv]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Wouldn't it be nice if the Cubs signed both Bellinger and Chapman?  Probably would just push us about 25m over the tax line and under the 2nd line if they also wanted to acquire a solid reliever FA or 2.

Right now, they're 40 million under the first level.  I think that between the two of them, it might push them 5 million over the CBT.

[LBiittner]

Stanek, Maton, Neris,  any of these former Astros fit in Jeds $ comfort zone?

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Stanek, Maton, Neris,  any of these former Astros fit in Jeds $ comfort zone?

Probably. As long as it is a year or two deal. 

[Backtobanks]

16 hours ago, squally1313 said:

And that devastating injury, or maybe the mechanical changes he made to handle the devastating injury, made his batted ball profile look pretty abysmal. Besides the fact that it's hard for me to totally buy into the fact that he spent all of 2022 (144 games played, 550 PAs, all in the field) 'recovering' from that injury. 

The injury in 2021  obviously affected his performance in 2022.  Making necessary corrections made him Comeback Player of the league in 2023.

[Bertz]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

I'll take as many good players as the budget can afford.  Guys like Bellinger and Chapman usually come at a reasonable # of years, unlike elite players.  Even if they have a NTC you can often trade them too if you want to make room for a prospect down the line to add surplus.  They traded Darvish.

They traded Darvish, the Cy Young runner up, for four 18 year olds.  As much as we'd like to handwave it away it is exceedingly difficult to trade long term money.  Doubly so if guys have NTCs.  Happ, Seiya, and Dansby already have them, Bellinger and Chapman would probably get them too.  Hoerner would be the only position player without one.

If you lock up Chapman and Bellinger, payroll in '25 and '26 is already within ~$20M of the luxury tax.  So unless Tom is cool going over three years in a row (which he wasn't at the end of last decade), you're done with major FA signings until 2027.

Fine, we can sit out FA, Jed doesn't do much there anyway, right?  Well you've got 6 lineup spots locked in with veterans meaning your options for improving the lineup deal are:

- Focusing just on 1B/C/DH, three positions that don't tend to get a lot of impact talent making it all the way to FA.  We do have prospects at these spots, but if you need to improve the lineup do you want to count on that improvement coming from kids?

- Trading Hoerner, the guy who is 31st in WAR over the last two years.  Not exactly easy to improve on that

- Do nothing, acknowledging the position player group more or less is what it is for a few years, and just focusing on the pitching staff

Unless the launch of Marquee has fundamentally changed the team's financial equation Jed's got two, maybe three, long term deals he can sign over the next three years.  Using those bullets on Chapman and Bellinger, guys with obvious warts we've been discussing all winter, just because they're the guys here right now is the adult equivalent of the marshmallow test.

[gocubs218]