Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

There really wasn't a rubber stamp guarantee. Hoyer talked about how they still wanted to add offense. That the Cubs wanted to get better at hitting right handed hitters. There's been speculation he meant two starting level hitters, but I'm not going to take him at his word that what he meant was "two MLB starting players". It could be a lot of things. I think we'll add Bellinger, but I'm not entirely convinced there will be a second addition to the "most of the time" lineup. 

That makes sense. Guess they could use a lefty bat, or at least a bat that can hit right handed pitching, on the bench or as a spot starter. Just don’t like the idea of a Madrigal/Wisdom split at 3rd with a hope a young guy comes up. But that may be all they can/will do. Jed did fool us with the Busch trade. Maybe he has something else no one saw coming. 

[Backtobanks]

15 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That’s big? Who the hey is Cosgrove?!

I’m randomly rooting for a Luis Robert trade rn somehow

A Luis Robert Trade is unlikely, but it would be possible if Jed was willing to part with the right prospects, but he won't.

Cosgrove is a 27 yr. old left RP: 

2023    1.75 ERA, 54 G, 51 IP, ERA+ 234, WHIP .974

Edited January 18, 2024 by Backtobanks

[ILMindState]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That makes sense. Guess they could use a lefty bat, or at least a bat that can hit right handed pitching, on the bench or as a spot starter. Just don’t like the idea of a Madrigal/Wisdom split at 3rd with a hope a young guy comes up. But that may be all they can/will do. Jed did fool us with the Busch trade. Maybe he has something else no one saw coming. 

 

 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

 

 

I believe Bob Nightengale said something very similar.  That might simply be because Bellinger's the biggest name on the market but who knows maybe Jed has something impactful up his sleeve beyond Bellinger and a high leverage reliever.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't want to keep harping on this point daily but I think it's a lot easier to understand(even if you don't agree) what the plan is if you look at it that the team is going to try to stack surplus value in the position player group.  Thanks to the locked in starters they do have(Happ, Seiya, Dansby, Nico), flexibility that is already in the roster(Hoerner, Morel, Busch),and flexibility possibly to come in the roster(Bellinger) they can do this and  let Counsell sort out the exact matchups and playing time distribution in several spots.  

It is not super likely that Madrigal can go most of the season without an injury and is able to sustain his bat like he did in between his 2 injuries early in the summer.  It's not likely that Wisdom can regain his 2021 magic at age 32. It is not super likely that Busch can be a cromulent defensive 3B, and similarly for Morel.  It's not probable that Murray takes Iowa by storm and forces his way into being a MLB bat that can also be a MLB 3B, and it's not reasonable to think Shaw will force his way to Wrigley and prove himself a MLB 3B for a big chunk of the season.  However, the odds of none of those things happening, and none of them happening in such a way that Counsell can't optimize the position via chopping and changing based on matchups is also not that high. 

This doesn't mean that they think they 'fixed' 3B, and while I wouldn't bet on him signing in Chicago they probably would happily take Chapman at their price or make a deal for a 3B if they think it suits them.  But the depth of 'maybe' options means that they don't *have* to fix 3B if it's not the way to add the most value to the team, so they'll prioritize the value part and leave it to the manager they just paid a record deal to in order to make the best of whatever position doesn't have a starter in pen.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I’m not either. But I also am not so sure they are happy with them either. Jed said we are in the 4th or 5th inning of the off season. He surprised us with Busch and even Imanaga. Maybe he has something else cooking. 

To be fair, I don't believe he said the Cubs are in the 4th or 5th inning; just that the offseason is. And he's right. Now, I think they will end up with Bellinger and another RP, but it would not surprise me if they don't make a move for a 3B. As much as you want ol boy from MIN, he's been a sub-2 win player for 2 straight truncated years and you have to ask, how much more value would he provide over what we would put out there from our own roster? We all want awesome offense at every position but value is value and Hoyer understands that. The difference might be negligible or just not enough to prompt a move. If they don't get Chapman, I bet they stand still for 2024. Possibly they revisit the situation at the TDL for a short term answer, but I don't think they have nearly the impetus to improve that position as you hope that they would. 

 

The organization might also be really high on Murray for all we know. He has had a steady linear progression and has a teriffic approach with visibly burgeoning power. He should probably be getting more industry respect TBH. 

[squally1313]

Yeah I'm really not super concerned about third base. We were 11th in production there last year completely cobbling it together, we have the additional options/potential internal upgrades that TT mentioned in the form of Busch, Murray, Shaw, Morel magically learning how to play it, etc that we didn't have last year. If you want to sign Chapman because he's one of like 5 guys out there that offers a potential first division starter and we have money to spend, sure, won't be mad about it. But you can absolutely survive on a platoon that's projected for 2.9 fWAR. 

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I don't want to keep harping on this point daily but I think it's a lot easier to understand(even if you don't agree) what the plan is if you look at it that the team is going to try to stack surplus value in the position player group.  Thanks to the locked in starters they do have(Happ, Seiya, Dansby, Nico), flexibility that is already in the roster(Hoerner, Morel, Busch),and flexibility possibly to come in the roster(Bellinger) they can do this and  let Counsell sort out the exact matchups and playing time distribution in several spots.  

It is not super likely that Madrigal can go most of the season without an injury and is able to sustain his bat like he did in between his 2 injuries early in the summer.  It's not likely that Wisdom can regain his 2021 magic at age 32. It is not super likely that Busch can be a cromulent defensive 3B, and similarly for Morel.  It's not probable that Murray takes Iowa by storm and forces his way into being a MLB bat that can also be a MLB 3B, and it's not reasonable to think Shaw will force his way to Wrigley and prove himself a MLB 3B for a big chunk of the season.  However, the odds of none of those things happening, and none of them happening in such a way that Counsell can't optimize the position via chopping and changing based on matchups is also not that high. 

This doesn't mean that they think they 'fixed' 3B, and while I wouldn't bet on him signing in Chicago they probably would happily take Chapman at their price or make a deal for a 3B if they think it suits them.  But the depth of 'maybe' options means that they don't *have* to fix 3B if it's not the way to add the most value to the team, so they'll prioritize the value part and leave it to the manager they just paid a record deal to in order to make the best of whatever position doesn't have a starter in pen.

I think this is right.  I think too, even in the situation where we roll snake eyes and none of those things go right it's probably more of a 1 WAR disappointment than the -2 WAR disaster 1B was last year.  If Jed plugs the other two holes on the roster by pulling down Bellinger and adding a closer caliber reliever 3B would be pretty tame as a weak link on the roster.  It can always be addressed at the deadline too.

[Rcal10]

27 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

To be fair, I don't believe he said the Cubs are in the 4th or 5th inning; just that the offseason is. And he's right. Now, I think they will end up with Bellinger and another RP, but it would not surprise me if they don't make a move for a 3B. As much as you want ol boy from MIN, he's been a sub-2 win player for 2 straight truncated years and you have to ask, how much more value would he provide over what we would put out there from our own roster? We all want awesome offense at every position but value is value and Hoyer understands that. The difference might be negligible or just not enough to prompt a move. If they don't get Chapman, I bet they stand still for 2024. Possibly they revisit the situation at the TDL for a short term answer, but I don't think they have nearly the impetus to improve that position as you hope that they would. 

 

The organization might also be really high on Murray for all we know. He has had a steady linear progression and has a teriffic approach with visibly burgeoning power. He should probably be getting more industry respect TBH. 

It isn’t about Polanco, specifically. In fact, if they only add one bat, sure, someone like Bellinger would be fine. They can probably survive at 3rd with in house options, as someone did suggest. It only takes one of the 5 or so options they have to work out. I am only trying to see where a 2nd bat would fit in. I think the obvious answer would be 3rd. Between Jed talking and the buzz that the Cubs would be the most active, it appears there would be more than just a Bellinger signing and a pen arm added. To me, that isn’t very active. But if nothing fits, they don’t do it. Not sure that is enough for them to win the division. But TBF, not sure adding a Polanco/JD Davis type 3rd baseman is enough either. Guess we can wait and see what Jed is going to do. 

[Stratos]

54 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I don't want to keep harping on this point daily but I think it's a lot easier to understand(even if you don't agree) what the plan is if you look at it that the team is going to try to stack surplus value in the position player group.  Thanks to the locked in starters they do have(Happ, Seiya, Dansby, Nico), flexibility that is already in the roster(Hoerner, Morel, Busch),and flexibility possibly to come in the roster(Bellinger) they can do this and  let Counsell sort out the exact matchups and playing time distribution in several spots.  

It is not super likely that Madrigal can go most of the season without an injury and is able to sustain his bat like he did in between his 2 injuries early in the summer.  It's not likely that Wisdom can regain his 2021 magic at age 32. It is not super likely that Busch can be a cromulent defensive 3B, and similarly for Morel.  It's not probable that Murray takes Iowa by storm and forces his way into being a MLB bat that can also be a MLB 3B, and it's not reasonable to think Shaw will force his way to Wrigley and prove himself a MLB 3B for a big chunk of the season.  However, the odds of none of those things happening, and none of them happening in such a way that Counsell can't optimize the position via chopping and changing based on matchups is also not that high. 

This doesn't mean that they think they 'fixed' 3B, and while I wouldn't bet on him signing in Chicago they probably would happily take Chapman at their price or make a deal for a 3B if they think it suits them.  But the depth of 'maybe' options means that they don't *have* to fix 3B if it's not the way to add the most value to the team, so they'll prioritize the value part and leave it to the manager they just paid a record deal to in order to make the best of whatever position doesn't have a starter in pen.

I'll add that the Cubs did surprisingly fine at 3B last year.   2.7 WAR at the position overall, which was good for 11th in the MLB if I remember correct.  Definitely above average.

Some of that was Madrigal hitting so well when he came back up that likely won't continue.  But they do have some options at the position.  None of Madrigal, Wisdom, Morel etc are the ideal 3B but none of them by themselves are terrible and Counsell can use matchups.

[Stratos]

47 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I'm really not super concerned about third base. We were 11th in production there last year completely cobbling it together, we have the additional options/potential internal upgrades that TT mentioned in the form of Busch, Murray, Shaw, Morel magically learning how to play it, etc that we didn't have last year. If you want to sign Chapman because he's one of like 5 guys out there that offers a potential first division starter and we have money to spend, sure, won't be mad about it. But you can absolutely survive on a platoon that's projected for 2.9 fWAR. 

Chapman will be 31 in a few months.   IMO it's a hard sell for us as a team with options now and some good prospects to try next year.  Can't see them signing him unless the market falls out for him and Jed falls into a good deal.

[squally1313]

15 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Chapman will be 31 in a few months.   IMO it's a hard sell for us as a team with options now and some good prospects to try next year.  Can't see them signing him unless the market falls out for him and Jed falls into a good deal.

He's projected for 3.6 fWAR next year (is it 'this year' now?) and increases the trade-ability of the Morel/Busch/Murray/Shaw group (doubt Madrigal/Wisdom/Mastro have much value). If you want to not sign him to use that money elsewhere (effectively), great. If you want to not sign him so as not to offend Matt Shaw and throw out a very low ceilinged platoon for the next year-year and a half, no. If we sign Chapman and Shaw balls out through AA and AAA this year, well, hey, Nico will only have 2 years left of control and would probably get us a nice pitcher for 2025.

We signed Suzuki to a long term deal in March 2022 with Brennen Davis coming off a year where he put up a 135 wRC+ in AA and then a 150 wRC+ in a short AAA stint. We haven't had to worry about Seiza or Happ blocking a good prospect. If you want to be a win now team, go get proven players. Figure out the 'we have too much talent' problem later.

[Backtobanks]

29 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

He's projected for 3.6 fWAR next year (is it 'this year' now?) and increases the trade-ability of the Morel/Busch/Murray/Shaw group (doubt Madrigal/Wisdom/Mastro have much value). If you want to not sign him to use that money elsewhere (effectively), great. If you want to not sign him so as not to offend Matt Shaw and throw out a very low ceilinged platoon for the next year-year and a half, no. If we sign Chapman and Shaw balls out through AA and AAA this year, well, hey, Nico will only have 2 years left of control and would probably get us a nice pitcher for 2025.

We signed Suzuki to a long term deal in March 2022 with Brennen Davis coming off a year where he put up a 135 wRC+ in AA and then a 150 wRC+ in a short AAA stint. We haven't had to worry about Seiza or Happ blocking a good prospect. If you want to be a win now team, go get proven players. Figure out the 'we have too much talent' problem later.

I think Gio Urshela is still available and probably on a short term deal.  I really want the Cubs to build this team for 2024-2025 and then worry about all of that excess talent to keep them going for another few years.  Leaving holes and question marks on the field because you don't want to block someone that might develop into a solid player in a year or 2 makes no sense.  

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I think Gio Urshela is still available and probably on a short term deal.  I really want the Cubs to build this team for 2024-2025 and then worry about all of that excess talent to keep them going for another few years.  Leaving holes and question marks on the field because you don't want to block someone that might develop into a solid player in a year or 2 makes no sense.  

There's probably a good reason why gio urshula is still readily available.

Whispering with hand in front of mouth: He's no freaking good for any serious contender

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

He's projected for 3.6 fWAR next year (is it 'this year' now?) and increases the trade-ability of the Morel/Busch/Murray/Shaw group (doubt Madrigal/Wisdom/Mastro have much value). If you want to not sign him to use that money elsewhere (effectively), great. If you want to not sign him so as not to offend Matt Shaw and throw out a very low ceilinged platoon for the next year-year and a half, no. If we sign Chapman and Shaw balls out through AA and AAA this year, well, hey, Nico will only have 2 years left of control and would probably get us a nice pitcher for 2025.

We signed Suzuki to a long term deal in March 2022 with Brennen Davis coming off a year where he put up a 135 wRC+ in AA and then a 150 wRC+ in a short AAA stint. We haven't had to worry about Seiza or Happ blocking a good prospect. If you want to be a win now team, go get proven players. Figure out the 'we have too much talent' problem later.

Good post. Kind of changing my opinion on Chapman. If they can get him in a 4 or even 5 year deal that does allow the Cubs to move minor league assets for talent elsewhere. Or, as you said, Nico only has a few more years after his one. Shaw can play 2nd. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

I think Gio Urshela is still available and probably on a short term deal.  I really want the Cubs to build this team for 2024-2025 and then worry about all of that excess talent to keep them going for another few years.  Leaving holes and question marks on the field because you don't want to block someone that might develop into a solid player in a year or 2 makes no sense.  

I don’t know about Gio being the answer, but I agree with your second part. I know biitner accused me of being a prospect hugger, but I think that title should go to others. I am all for getting the best team you can get on the field in 24 and figure out what happens after that. If a guy is blocked, trade him. Or trade the guy blocking him. Dodgers didn’t worry about blocking Lux, Busch or anyone else when they brought in guys like Turner, Betts to play second or Freeman. They figured something out when that guy was ready. That is the approach the Cubs should be using. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

He's projected for 3.6 fWAR next year (is it 'this year' now?) and increases the trade-ability of the Morel/Busch/Murray/Shaw group (doubt Madrigal/Wisdom/Mastro have much value). If you want to not sign him to use that money elsewhere (effectively), great. If you want to not sign him so as not to offend Matt Shaw and throw out a very low ceilinged platoon for the next year-year and a half, no. If we sign Chapman and Shaw balls out through AA and AAA this year, well, hey, Nico will only have 2 years left of control and would probably get us a nice pitcher for 2025.

We signed Suzuki to a long term deal in March 2022 with Brennen Davis coming off a year where he put up a 135 wRC+ in AA and then a 150 wRC+ in a short AAA stint. We haven't had to worry about Seiza or Happ blocking a good prospect. If you want to be a win now team, go get proven players. Figure out the 'we have too much talent' problem later.

Suzuki was 27.  I'm ok doing this with Bellinger in CF, he's 28.  Happ was 29 when he extended.

If Chapman would sign without a NTC or the Cubs are willing to go beyond the first CBT line then sure.  I think they should just go get Brandon Drury or something.

[Jason Ross]

Astros are making a push for Hader. Per Rosenthal.

Feels like one of those "this is going to finish quickly things". Should maybe open the reliever market up. Important for the Cubs.

[Bertz]

Was wondering who the heck was going to come down with him

 

Edited January 18, 2024 by Bertz

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, LBiittner said:

There's probably a good reason why gio urshula is still readily available.

Whispering with hand in front of mouth: He's no freaking good for any serious contender

In 2022 he hit ,285/be ready ,333,429/,767 with an OPS+ of 119 with 13HR and 64 RBI plus he's an actual 3B and affordable. I put his name out there because we have a bunch of guys who can't play 3B, Jed doesn't want to pay Chapman or trade for someone like Kim, and Urshela would be a placeholder for all of those "can't miss" prospects that may (or may not) be ready eventually.

[squally1313]

55 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Suzuki was 27.  I'm ok doing this with Bellinger in CF, he's 28.  Happ was 29 when he extended.

If Chapman would sign without a NTC or the Cubs are willing to go beyond the first CBT line then sure.  I think they should just go get Brandon Drury or something.

• Drury Zips: .245/.295/.435, 98 OPS+, -3 defense
• Wisdom Zips: .212/.300/.455, 103 OPS+, -3 defense
• Chapman Zips: .243/.333/.453, 117 OPS+, +8 defense

 

[Tim]

44 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

In 2022 he hit ,285/be ready ,333,429/,767 with an OPS+ of 119 with 13HR and 64 RBI plus he's an actual 3B and affordable. I put his name out there because we have a bunch of guys who can't play 3B, Jed doesn't want to pay Chapman or trade for someone like Kim, and Urshela would be a placeholder for all of those "can't miss" prospects that may (or may not) be ready eventually.

Man, I wish all those kids would just get off your lawn already.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I would really not be opposed to Urshela for like 2-3M

[Transmogrified Tiger]

ZiPS has Urshela as worse than all 3 of the other RHH 3B options already on the roster, and I'm not inclined to disagree with them.  He doesn't solve a platoon problem(which may not exist if you/the org believes in Busch at 3B), doesn't play particularly good defense, doesn't provide power threat off the bench, doesn't provide stability/consistency of production.  Just another body to throw at the position, don't really see the point.

[Rcal10]

Hey, if Houston does sign Hader does that maybe free up Bregman? I know it was mentioned earlier. Isn’t he and Alruve a free agent next year. Signing Hader pushes them over the first LT threshold. Any chance they won’t want to be there, or know they won’t sign Bregman next year?