Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I would eat my shoe if Scott Boras allowed that. At 6 years that's under $140m. $20m+ under Brandon Nimmo's total. 

Boras is the best in the business for a reason. He'll get someone to give him $160-$180m. Or get that really high AAV stuff. It might not be Chicago, but it'll be someone. I don't think he's getting this $200m+ deal he was banging his chest about, but he won't lose that much.

The scenerio I used also allows for 7/$168. Which is more money overall and higher AAV than Nimmo. And it is in that $160M-$180M range you suggest someone will give him. Cubs have been on board with 7 year deals before. That is the max I see them at. If he gets more it won’t be the Cubs, IMO. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The scenerio I used also allows for 7/$168. Which is more money overall and higher AAV than Nimmo. And it is in that $160M-$180M range you suggest someone will give him. Cubs have been on board with 7 year deals before. That is the max I see them at. If he gets more it won’t be the Cubs, IMO. 

I guess. But I also highly believe if a team is giving him seven years, Boras likely hasn't lost this contract, and 7/$168m for Bellinger feels very much like a loss when Byrant pulled down $180+m. I really can't see a scenario where Bryant locks in at only $23m or $24m for seven years. 

We'll certainly see, but it feels you're very much on the hopeful side of his contract. Boras just loses so rarely. I'll side with him coming away with a win in some fashion...either AAV or total. A 7/$168m feels like a loss in both.

[Tryptamine]

If Bellinger is signing for 7/168, he should be a Cub right now. That's like best case scenario for the Cubs as far as a contract goes.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Let me play devils advocate, if Stroman had opted back in at $21 do you think Jed would've still picked up one free agent pitcher? Or would he fold his hand?

No.  They were never going to acquire 2 quality SP this offseason, unless a great deal fell into their lap they couldn't refuse.  They have Wicks, Assad, Wesneski, Smyly, Brown to fill the 5th spot.  Doesn't make any sense to block the young guys that are decent assets.  They might sign some cheap depth SP flyer to compete for the 5th spot.  They chose to bring back Hendricks over a more expensive upgrade.

They had 1 SP to fill to replace Stroman.   They could have signed Snell, or Montgomery, or traded for Bieber etc.  They chose Imanaga.  They went for the cheaper value signing.   They're likely trying to squeeze under the CBT cap again.

They've got about 35m under the cap to spend right now.  Enough for Bellinger, a couple of decent pen arms, and another cheap corner/DH bat.  We're probably not getting Hoskins unless we miss on Bellinger or Ricketts is ok with going over the cap slightly.

Edited January 13, 2024 by Stratos

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Stratos said:

No.  They were never going to acquire 2 quality SP this offseason, unless a great deal fell into their lap they couldn't refuse.  They have Wicks, Assad, Wesneski, Smyly, Brown to fill the 5th spot.  Doesn't make any sense to block the young guys that are decent assets.  They chose to bring back Hendricks over a more expensive upgrade.

They had 1 SP to fill to replace Stroman.   They could have signed Snell, or Montgomery, or traded for Bieber etc.  They chose Imanaga.  They went for the cheaper value signing.   They're likely trying to squeeze under the CBT cap again.

They've got about 35m under the cap to spend right now.  Enough for Bellinger, a couple of decent pen arms, and another cheap corner/DH bat.  We're probably not getting Hoskins unless we miss on Bellinger or Ricketts is ok with going over the cap slightly.

The Cubs are almost assuredly going over the first line of the luxury tax. They probably have closer to $50-$55m left to spend. Based on their "shopping list" it will be not a couple relievers, but one (Hottovoy suggested one 1 SP, two RP's. Almonte and Imanaga are in). Also claim to be in the "4th/5th inning" of the offseason. 3 in already, mid way through, expect 3 more in. So I'd say it's more likely:

1. Big hitter/FA

2. A smaller hitter 

3. One 8th/9th RP to go.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If Bellinger is signing for 7/168, he should be a Cub right now. That's like best case scenario for the Cubs as far as a contract goes.

Agreed. But right now Boras might not be willing to take that. And right now the Cubs might not be offering that. Which is why he isn’t signed yet. Maybe he gets more, but I am not sure he gets if from the Cubs if that is what he needs. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Boras isn't gonna get it this time, calling it now. He projects for 3 war; even if we credit his approach and give 4 war, those types of players don't usually get 6/150, do they? He's just an interesting case because he's young enough to project decent CF defense for 3 years but you probably don't want to keep him there for much longer than that, and if you move him to RF or 1B the offense needs to be 130ish to be worth it, and its hard to say it will unless he defies the normally accepted age curve. There's a good possibility you are paying out the final 75 to a 2 win player at best.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, LBiittner said:

In my mind, The other firstbase could be Belli  part time, most time cf,  like 2023. Wisdom also factors there as well.

I appreciate Jed and his intelligent spending, which will keep fan cost down to affordable levels.

It's just difficult accepting the fact right now the biggest deal a chicago team affords itself is $13m per year deal (hello KC & Cinci)

 

 

This is on Ricketts.  He bulldozed most of Wrigley a freaking national landmark and rebuilt a facsimile on its footprint  but with more seats and ugly electronic scoreboards for more ad space and some stupid mascot to sell for birthday party events so he could make more money but doesn't put much if any of it back into the team.

Fans are shelling out their money for the Cubs Con right now and Ricketts will pocket that too.

Jed is doing what he can to make the best team possible under the cap because that's the budget he's been given.  He'd still be spending intelligently with a 270m budget, he'd just be able to afford better and more players.

[LBiittner]

24 minutes ago, username said:

Umm... what?  Have you been to a game at Wrigley recently?

On an old cubby board that has long since died, we posted sarcasm in purple. I have yet to find the color key here. But I'll keep searching.

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, Stratos said:

This is on Ricketts.  He bulldozed most of Wrigley a freaking national landmark and rebuilt a facsimile on its footprint  but with more seats and ugly electronic scoreboards for more ad space and some stupid mascot to sell for birthday party events so he could make more money but doesn't put much if any of it back into the team.

Fans are shelling out their money for the Cubs Con right now and Ricketts will pocket that too.

Jed is doing what he can to make the best team possible under the cap because that's the budget he's been given.  He'd still be spending intelligently with a 270m budget, he'd just be able to afford better and more players.

See my above post

[chopsx9]

31 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

 He projects for 3 war; 

Again where can I put money on the over for this?

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Again where can I put money on the over for this?

Over what? What years and AAV are you suggesting. I don’t think he gets a Bryant deal. Just because the Rockies are mismanaged doesn’t mean another team has to be. And if he does get it, he won’t be in the Cubs. 

[chopsx9]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

Over what? What years and AAV are you suggesting. I don’t think he gets a Bryant deal. Just because the Rockies are mismanaged doesn’t mean another team has to be. And if he does get it, he won’t be in the Cubs. 

No - Betting money on over 3 WAR for next year.

[Tryptamine]

He was playing at 5 fWAR/162 pace so, to fall to 3 fWAR would require a whole lot of regression or injury. Even when he was still broken in 2022 and putting up an 83 wRC+ he still managed to put up a 1.8 fWAR.

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

No - Betting money on over 3 WAR for next year.

Oh, got it. I can agree with that. 

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

He was playing at 5 fWAR/162 pace so, to fall to 3 fWAR would require a whole lot of regression or injury. Even when he was still broken in 2022 and putting up an 83 wRC+ he still managed to put up a 1.8 fWAR.

Well, I think we need to remember, no one really plays 162 games any more. Bellinger, even if entirely healthy, is probably looking at 140 games. Then add in the batted ball data: Bellinger looks more like a 110-120 wRC+ hitter moving forward (Mike Petriello laid out a great case). I think Cody Bellinger at 3-3.5 fWAR is a really likely scenario moving forward. He will probably peak and valley outside of that: maybe a bit above 3.5 here, lower there...etc, but I wouldn't expect him to be much better unless the batted ball profile changes (and I don't think you can really predict that getting better right now).

[Irrelevant Dude]

My takeaway from Cubs Convention is I really like Craig Counsell.

[Stratos]

https://twitter.com/ryan_a_herrera/status/1746256069687439495

[Stratos]

Cubs were in on Suter down to the end:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2024/01/13/how-new-reds-pitcher-brent-suter-brings-world-view-to-hometown-team/72216493007/

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I doubt they add 2 more pen arms. Almonte was one.

I really hope Almonte isn't one of the 2 arms because he's clearly a below average relief arm.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs are almost assuredly going over the first line of the luxury tax. They probably have closer to $50-$55m left to spend.

Let's hope so, but I dunno.  I guess we'll see, but Imanaga and Busch aren't moves that point towards that.

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Let's hope so, but I dunno.  I guess we'll see, but Imanaga and Busch aren't moves that point towards that.

I feel like those are exactly the moves to make if you do want to spend on other things to fill remaining gaps.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think there's almost a zero% chance he gets $23m AAV. He's going to get at least $25m AAV (and thats still probably on the low end) and possibly much, much higher if he gets a short term, high AAV with opt-out thing. 

The only way he gets $23m AAV is if he signs like an 8 or 9 year contract. 

His market is cloudy, but it's Scott Boras. Boras is likely looking at the Bryant deal as a baseline for a 6/7 year contract. Usually what Boras wants, he gets. Even with murky markets.

I dunno, a lot of teams are probably down on his metrics from last year.  Lance Brozdowski thinks he may get south of 24-25m AAV because of it.  He does a great breakdown on if what he did in 2023 is repeatable including what he did with 2 strikes:

 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I dunno, a lot of teams are probably down on his metrics from last year.  Lance Brozdowski thinks he may get south of 24-25m AAV because of it.  He does a great breakdown on if what he did in 2023 is repeatable including what he did with 2 strikes:

 

Yeah, seen Lance's stuff. Lance is the horsefeathers. With that said,  Boras just doesn't lose often, if, basically, ever. 

What you need is one team that gets a little ahead of themselves. Boras always finds his Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies or Anaheim Angels. Bellinger's either going to get way over that on a short term deal, or be no where short of $25m on a long. 

[Illiterate Scholar]

If he re-signs with the Cubs, I'll be surprised if it's low AAV. I fully expect something like 3 years/90-100 million with opt outs after each year. Maybe the Angels give him a long term deal or something, but I don't think Jed will.