Cubs offseason chit chat...

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Jfoley89 said:

I'm not the one making the argument that trading PCA helps the Cubs for years to come. TINSTAAPP

lol.

[Jfoley89]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

lol.

Not trading for Quintana would be helping the Cubs plenty right now

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You can play Bellinger in RF, and if you look at what it took for, say, Adolis Garcia to put up a near 5 win season from that position, that feels like an entirely reasonable outcome to invest in as the 'if PCA is in fact good' contingency.

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

You can play Bellinger in RF, and if you look at what it took for, say, Adolis Garcia to put up a near 5 win season from that position, that feels like an entirely reasonable outcome to invest in as the 'if PCA is in fact good' contingency.

And what happens to Suzuki? BTW, I don’t mind keeping PCA. But I do think he helps more being traded for another solid player to fill another hole. If they don’t get Bellinger for sure centerfield would be PCA at some point next year. If they do they can still work something out, but if PCA+ brought back Luzardo or some combination of a young controlled pitcher and another bat to fill a spot, trading him would have to be considered. Let’s say to Tampa for Lowe and a young pitcher. Lowe plays 1st or 3rd and the pitcher we have for 5 years or more. I am not looking at Tampa’s roster, but they probably have a fit somewhere. Maybe to Cleveland for Naylor and Bibee.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Rcal10

[Backtobanks]

I saw something from Rosenthal that said The Reds were trying to get Bieber, but the Guardians want to include Clase and the Reds didn't want to expand the deal.

Wake Up Jed!

 

[Tryptamine]

Rather disappointed the Cubs seem to have no interest in Yariel Rodriguez. I guess it's justified if they don't see him as a starter, but as a pen arm, he's electric.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

And what happens to Suzuki? BTW, I don’t mind keeping PCA. But I do think he helps more being traded for another solid player to fill another hole. If they don’t get Bellinger for sure centerfield would be PCA at some point next year. If they do they can still work something out, but if PCA+ brought back Luzardo or some combination of a young controlled pitcher and another bat to fill a spot, trading him would have to be considered. Let’s say to Tampa for Lowe and a young pitcher. Lowe plays 1st or 3rd and the pitcher we have for 5 years or more. I am not looking at Tampa’s roster, but they probably have a fit somewhere. Maybe to Cleveland for Naylor and Bibee.

Suzuki mostly DHs, he's at almost 250 MLB games in RF as an average at best defender.  Also, and I apologize for making this point before, but you can get away just fine with 6 guys for 5 spots(OF + 1B/DH) even if you want all 6 to get 'starter' playing time.  That's 135 games per person, and when you add up injuries, rest, matchup preferences, and PCA preferably not breaking camp with the big league team, it ends up being a solved problem or (rarely) a luxury.

[Tryptamine]

I believe Seiya has come out and said that he dislikes DHing.

[Rcal10]

56 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Suzuki mostly DHs, he's at almost 250 MLB games in RF as an average at best defender.  Also, and I apologize for making this point before, but you can get away just fine with 6 guys for 5 spots(OF + 1B/DH) even if you want all 6 to get 'starter' playing time.  That's 135 games per person, and when you add up injuries, rest, matchup preferences, and PCA preferably not breaking camp with the big league team, it ends up being a solved problem or (rarely) a luxury.

What happens with Morel. Is he playing 3rd? Most hate that idea. So he is the DH. As I said, kind of a right fit if you sign Bellinger and keep PCA. Especially if you don’t like the idea of Bellinger playing first after 2024. 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

I mention trading PCA because to get the real quality young TOR, you're going to have to include PCA or Morel.  Signing Bellinger makes PCA available.

Why do they need to trade for a young SP this offseason?  They have a couple of young guys that are ready or close to it in their system now.

 

[chibears55]

25 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What happens with Morel. Is he playing 3rd? Most hate that idea. So he is the DH. As I said, kind of a right fit if you sign Bellinger and keep PCA. Especially if you don’t like the idea of Bellinger playing first after 2024. 

probably at the deadline,  Morel could be the guy used to get a TOR pitcher that will likely become available then.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What happens with Morel. Is he playing 3rd? Most hate that idea. So he is the DH. As I said, kind of a right fit if you sign Bellinger and keep PCA. Especially if you don’t like the idea of Bellinger playing first after 2024. 

He could, but the point is that he doesn't have to.  You could get Bellinger and Hoskins and still have the aforementioned 6 players for 5 spots between Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki/PCA/Hoskins/Morel.  This lets you minimize the pressure on PCA's bat, hedges against injury and underperformance, and lets the team have a higher floor day to day.  Long story short, we worry a bit too much about having a neat place in the ideal 9 person lineup when that is basically never the circumstance the team ends up playing in.

[Tryptamine]

54 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

probably at the deadline,  Morel could be the guy used to get a TOR pitcher that will likely become available then.

I don't think this happens. If he's hitting well enough mid season to get your a TOR pitcher, they're not going to subtract him from the line up and if he's not hitting to the point where you don't care if you lose him in your lineup, you aren't getting a TORP. Contending teams don't move big bats out of their lineup in the middle of the season.

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

Something like a short-term high AAV Bellinger deal, Hoskins, and trading for Bieber puts the payroll around 250 million. And that's before adding to the bullpen and another starter, though maybe Jed is fine with Wicks/Assad battling for the 5 spot. I'd understand any skepticism, but I could see Tom being OK with a 260-265 with that much tied up in short term deals.

Even if they signed Bellinger to a longterm deal but without a NTC it could work.  Even with a NTC he can still be traded, like Darvish was.  Happ or Seiya can be traded down the line also.

I think the plan all along may have been to sign Yu Darvish on a good value deal and then flip him after he has a really good season.  I think the same could possibly be said for Taillon (though not a "really good season", but they probably thought they can extract better performance out of him with the pitch lab magic etc)

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't think this happens. If he's hitting well enough mid season to get your a TOR pitcher, they're not going to subtract him from the line up and if he's not hitting to the point where you don't care if you lose him in your lineup, you aren't getting a TORP. Contending teams don't move big bats out of their lineup in the middle of the season.

Something tells me they won't be seriously contending in July

[thawv]

11 hours ago, The20thK said:

At the beginning of the offseason, I was all for handing the reigns to PCA in CF, either at the start of the season or shortly thereafter.

With the way things have played out, I’m all for resigning Belli and trading PCA.

 

Why does it have to be one or the other?  As an outfielder, Happ's OAA is -13, and his Runs Prevented is -12.  I would say that Cody would be a much better option in LF than Happ.  Happ can DH if they plan on putting Morel at 3B.  Maybe work Happ at 1B if they still haven't filled that hole.  

[Backtobanks]

11 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Why do they need to trade for a young SP this offseason?  They have a couple of young guys that are ready or close to it in their system now.

 

I prefer players with a solid ML track record over ml prospects.  Prospects are just that until they prove their worth in the ML.  That's the reason I'm into signing Bellinger and trading PCA.  IMO, now is the time to sign the right FA or 2 and make the trade or 2 to put us in contention for the next 4-5 years.

[Rcal10]

52 minutes ago, thawv said:

Why does it have to be one or the other?  As an outfielder, Happ's OAA is -13, and his Runs Prevented is -12.  I would say that Cody would be a much better option in LF than Happ.  Happ can DH if they plan on putting Morel at 3B.  Maybe work Happ at 1B if they still haven't filled that hole.  

But what is the point of that? I thought most people suggested if you pay Bellinger the $25M to $27M a year for 6-8 years he needs to be in center to be worth the contract. Basically because he isn’t worth that at 1st. How is it different if he moves to left to put Happ at first? You put a guy at first who isn’t as good as Bellinger. If you want to argue that Bellinger is a better left fielder than Happ, fine. But I would rather have a better fielder at 1st. As for DH, for that to happen Morel has to play 3rd. Something else most don’t think he can do. I am fine with signing Bellinger but if they keep PCA it does make for a less than ideal fit. I think you end up putting Bellinger at 1st base. Which, again, most have make a good point that he isn’t worth $27M a year for 6 years as a first baseman. 
I think 1908 pointed out he thinks it is highly unlikely they trade PCA. I actually agree with him. I am suggesting what  I wish they would trade PCA to fill another need. I am not suggesting that I think they will. IMO if they sign Bellinger, PCA will start in the minors. Once he is brought up they will work him in as TT suggested playing 6 guys at 5 positions, the rest of 24. Then in 25 Bellinger is the first baseman. To me this is not ideal. But I do agree with 1908 that PCA seems like the exact type of player the Cubs want. And they do want to build from within. 

[Rcal10]

11 hours ago, chibears55 said:

probably at the deadline,  Morel could be the guy used to get a TOR pitcher that will likely become available then.

Why would this happen? Why are the  ins trading a bat at the deadline? 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

I prefer players with a solid ML track record over ml prospects.  Prospects are just that until they prove their worth in the ML.  That's the reason I'm into signing Bellinger and trading PCA.  IMO, now is the time to sign the right FA or 2 and make the trade or 2 to put us in contention for the next 4-5 years.

Management of most MLB teams prefers cheap labor. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

28 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Management of most MLB teams prefers cheap labor. 

*Ownership prefers cheap labor. (Universally, not just in MLB.) 

[Bull]

15 hours ago, Jfoley89 said:

I'm not the one making the argument that trading PCA helps the Cubs for years to come. TINSTAAPP

I'll see your TINSTAPP and raise you a TOOTBLAN.

PCA is a nincompoop.

[squally1313]

12 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

He could, but the point is that he doesn't have to.  You could get Bellinger and Hoskins and still have the aforementioned 6 players for 5 spots between Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki/PCA/Hoskins/Morel.  This lets you minimize the pressure on PCA's bat, hedges against injury and underperformance, and lets the team have a higher floor day to day.  Long story short, we worry a bit too much about having a neat place in the ideal 9 person lineup when that is basically never the circumstance the team ends up playing in.

This outcome is totally fine offensively (and honestly, given where we're at so far, would be a pretty good outcome for the offseason). And I agree that I was probably coming off as putting too much emphasis on the mythical best 9 man lineup that can tossed out every day with no injuries. My issue with a Bellinger and Hoskins signing coupled with PCA starting in Iowa, on the bench, platooning, etc is that it heavily implies that very little was done to address the short term needs on the pitching side. You throw that kind of money at Hoskins and Bellinger and you take Morel and PCA off the table in trade talks and you're limiting yourself on what you can get pitching wise unless you start talking about Horton or a significant amount of the pitching depth we've built up.

Basically, in a world where Taillon and Hendricks aren't fighting for the role of #2 starter, very much agreed you can roll out that group of guys and everyone would get plenty of ABs. But instead of giving them each 135 games, give 5 of them 145 games, give the rest to Tauchman, and get yourself someone to slot in behind Steele. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

36 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

*Ownership prefers cheap labor. (Universally, not just in MLB.) 

Welcome to NSBB!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Basically, in a world where Taillon and Hendricks aren't fighting for the role of #2 starter, very much agreed you can roll out that group of guys and everyone would get plenty of ABs. But instead of giving them each 135 games, give 5 of them 145 games, give the rest to Tauchman, and get yourself someone to slot in behind Steele. 

Well sure, on the hierarchy of needs having that 2nd bat falls beneath having a playoff series SP.  But there's no sign those are mutually exclusive that I can see.  You can still do the above and sign Imanaga or Montgomery or trade for Bieber or Cease or maybe a Marlins or Mariners SP.