Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Not that I’m outright against pretty much anyone being traded, but…yes?

MiLB Pache: .276/.329/.401

MiLB Crow-Armstrong: .301/.376/.515

 

Pache started his pro career 2 years younger than PCA. Please dont try and compare their MiLB numbers. Their AAA numbers aren't that far off and Pache was equally if not more regarded as a prospect than PCA and they have the same exact profile.

[Rob]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Bellinger's xBA was 74th percentile. He was not "lucky."

There are real questions about his power going forward, but its no question he did trade power for contact. He was never a better hitter at making contact in his entire career than he was last year. The other thing to point out with the power is that in his previous 2 seasons his max EV was 107. Last year his max EV was 109, 1 mph lower than his MVP season. So the power hasn't drained. It actually rebounded.

You're cherry picking. xBA is a component of xwOBA, which also includes his power and walk rate. So sure, having a higher than normal batting average might be expected. But that doesn't make him a good hitter.

And while his max EV went slightly up last year, his average exit velocity was the absolute lowest of his career. It ranked in the 22nd percentile. That's not a power "rebound." His barrel and hard hit rates were also the lowest of his career.

Put more simply, his xwOBA was .327. His actual wOBA was .370. Now, I put a little bit of stock in his adjusted two-strike approach. But it's not worth .043 points of wOBA. He was lucky last year, plain and simple.

[Bertz]

14 minutes ago, Rob said:

I'll be honest -- I simply don't trust Bellinger's production going forward. I don't want any part of a massive contract for him.

We've all seen this discussion before, but the underlying metrics are not pretty. His xwOBA was merely in the 53rd percentile last year. Overall rank of 121 out of 258. He was right behind Jake Fraley and Luke Raley. He looked like a league average hitter who got lucky.

Now, I understand some people think it's not luck -- that maybe it's at least partially attributable to his two-strike approach. But that's not really a testable hypothesis on a single season's timeframe. And even if you believe it's true -- how much of a difference can that make, truly? It's probably not enough to take a league average guy to near MVP caliber when healthy.

And it's not like we can look to his recent past to allay our concerns. His recent past showed him being abysmal with the bat.

Last year I was one of the chief defenders of signing him. There was enough in his profile that I thought he warranted a look on a cheap one year deal to see if he could pull it together. And he has -- at least partially. But this year I look at him and see the warts. I think he's going to be paid ~$80M or so more than he's worth. We're best off letting him walk and collecting the QO pick.

At this point I feel like I've seen a half dozen ways of trying to suss out how good of a hitter Bellinger is moving forward, and they all seem to converge in the 110-120 wRC+ range.

I think he's worth Brandon Nimmo money in CF.  He's worth maybe a third of that at 1B?  For the Cubs I think he'd be worth around $100M pricing in some PCA failure risk.  But he's going to do so much better than that elsewhere.  He'll probably get a contract starting with a 2 considering how desperate Toronto and San Fran are.  Like you said thank him for an awesome year and let him walk.

[Cuzi]

Again... he traded power for contact. Obviously the average EV is going to go down if your concern is merely putting bat to ball. If you dont understand the importance of max EV when it comes to raw power then you dont understand power.

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

I am not sure if last year is real or not and unless we are trading PCA, I would rather not pay our 1B nearly 200 million. I would be fine with that contract but just think we could get better value elsewhere. 

Bellinger's issues were with his swing. He seems to have corrected it over the course of the season. The approach change helped boost his BA and also, made him a better offensive player. He fits well on a team that needs the type of player he can be. He's almost the perfect fit for the Cubs. 

PCA is a top-level defensive CF right now and for the foreseeable future. But he's uber-aggressive at the plate. ML pitchers are going to take advantage of that. It will take some adjustment by him. But he's not going to hit with the same level of SLG as Bellinger. 

I'm fine if the Cubs choose not to pursue Bellinger, but if they do, they are going to have to rely on Tauchman. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that PCA is going to make the club out of ST and I don't think it's a high likelihood that he's going to be able to produce enough offense given the Cubs' team makeup right now. So if they choose not to go after Bellinger, they are banking on the future more than the present. 

If they trade PCA, they should get a pretty good return, but maybe not what we want or expect. 

[Rob]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Again... he traded power for contact. Obviously the average EV is going to go down if your concern is merely putting bat to ball. If you dont understand the importance of max EV when it comes to raw power then you dont understand power.

Max EV is a single data point. One. It's not totally useless, but there is a whole season's worth of data to look at that says that Bellinger has not, in fact, returned to MVP caliber form as a hitter.

Rather, he's a plus defensive center fielder who is maybe, just maybe, slightly above average offensively. That's valuable, absolutely. But he's a lot closer to being Kevin Kiermaier than he is to being a perennial MVP candidate. So why would we want to pay him like one?

[Cuzi]

12 minutes ago, Rob said:

Max EV is a single data point. One. It's not totally useless, but there is a whole season's worth of data to look at that says that Bellinger has not, in fact, returned to MVP caliber form as a hitter.

Do quote where anyone has said Bellinger returned to MVP caliber form as a hitter. I'll wait.

[17 Seconds]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Do quote where anyone has said Bellinger returned to MVP caliber form as a hitter. I'll wait.

someone did on the last page

[Rob]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Do quote where anyone has said Bellinger returned to MVP caliber form as a hitter. I'll wait.

Bellinger's .370 wOBA was the 13th highest among qualified hitters in baseball last year. The guys ahead of him were pretty much all current or former MVP candidates -- Ohtani, Acuna, Seager, Betts, Olson, Freeman, etc.... (though Marcell Ozuna was also there, weirdly enough).

Meanwhile, you have seemingly taken great umbrage at my labeling of Bellinger's .370 wOBA last year as "lucky."

Well, I've got news for you. If you're saying Bellinger wasn't lucky -- that his true talent level actually puts him in the top dozen or so hitters in baseball while being a plus defensive center fielder, then you're also saying he's going to be in that MVP discussion pretty much by default.

Also, as 17 Seconds pointed out, others have said that.

[Rob]

1 minute ago, username said:

You want to sign "basically Patrick Wisdom" (but the clubhouse cancer version) because he's old, retiring and might be able to take roids?  WTF?

It was either make that post, or study for my international criminal law final. Seemed an easy choice to me.

But the bizarre roid rant was basically an excuse to chat about that Pujols conspiracy theory. Even without it, Donaldson looks like a slight upgrade over Wisdom.

(Side note: I'm thinking today's argument instead of studying will be to sign Austin Meadows, but I'm still thinking through that one.)

[Cuzi]

13 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

someone did on the last page

The closest thing I see to saying he was MVP caliber was saying "near MVP." He was 10th in MVP votes, so is that wrong?

But in the context of our discussion we are talking about Bellinger rebounding to his MVP season. Again, I'll wait for the quote where it was ever stated he returned to that form.

[17 Seconds]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

The closest thing I see to saying he was MVP caliber was saying "near MVP." He was 10th in MVP votes, so is that wrong?

But in the context of our discussion we are talking about Bellinger rebounding to his MVP season. Again, I'll wait for the quote where it was ever stated he returned to that form.

you were cherry picking rob's post to begin with. you (incredulously) asked where someone called him mvp caliber, so i showed you. now you're moving the goalposts again, because every one of your posts must be angry

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

you were cherry picking rob's post to begin with. you (incredulously) asked where someone called him mvp caliber, so i showed you. now you're moving the goalposts again, because every one of your posts must be angry

You didn't show me. I had to look. And when I looked no one said he was MVP caliber. No goal post has been moved, you just never understood where the goal post was in the first place.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Rob said:

I'll be honest -- I simply don't trust Bellinger's production going forward. I don't want any part of a massive contract for him.

We've all seen this discussion before, but the underlying metrics are not pretty. His xwOBA was merely in the 53rd percentile last year. Overall rank of 121 out of 258. He was right behind Jake Fraley and Luke Raley. He looked like a league average hitter who got lucky.

Now, I understand some people think it's not luck -- that maybe it's at least partially attributable to his two-strike approach. But that's not really a testable hypothesis on a single season's timeframe. And even if you believe it's true -- how much of a difference can that make, truly? It's probably not enough to take a league average guy to near MVP caliber when healthy.

And it's not like we can look to his recent past to allay our concerns. His recent past showed him being abysmal with the bat.

Last year I was one of the chief defenders of signing him. There was enough in his profile that I thought he warranted a look on a cheap one year deal to see if he could pull it together. And he has -- at least partially. But this year I look at him and see the warts. I think he's going to be paid ~$80M or so more than he's worth. We're best off letting him walk and collecting the QO pick.

I’m not worried about the overpay aspect of people’s arguments. For me, if you can get him for that 7/$181 you do so and play him in center. Cubs need offense. Specifically some left handed power. If they believe in his bat, why can’t he stay in center for at least 5 or more of those years and still play a good centerfield? Figure out what to do with PCA. I would be fine trading him if he filled another problem with who we got back. Seems people complain about the Cubs not signing free agents but then everyone we do discuss signing a guy it comes back to “he will be overpaid and it is not worth it”. Simple fact is most signings are an overpay. Cubs should be right there with any other team bidding on him and project him as their centerfielder. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What the horsefeathers happened at PSD that left so many of you in bad moods all the time?

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

What the horsefeathers happened at PSD that left so many of you in bad moods all the time?

The Ricketts bought the Cubs?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The Ricketts bought the Cubs?

That happened here too

[Rob]

5 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

What the horsefeathers happened at PSD that left so many of you in bad moods all the time?

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

That happened here too

Yes but I think most of us take our miserableness out in the social hidden section.

[NorthsideAvenger]

My goodness, we need a transaction badly. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

My goodness, we need a transaction badly. 

Totally agree!😬

[ILMindState]

28 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

What the horsefeathers happened at PSD that left so many of you in bad moods all the time?

PSD was not all like this. But it's funny watching people respond to the trolls not knowing they are trolls.

[champaignchris]

23 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

My goodness, we need a transaction badly. 

When the Cubs inevitably sign a marginal reliever to a minor league contract. 

NSBB:  “No! Not like that!”

Edited December 12, 2023 by champaignchris

[Soul]

Yeah, concern is rising.  It'll turn to panic if Bellinger leaves.

[gocubs218]

No idea who this dude is.