Cubs offseason chit chat...

[CubinNY]

52 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

lol who cares.  They had like the 6th best run differential last year, it’s time to go for it.  Anybody in this fan base that thinks like you do is being ridiculous and how you end up 108 years without a championship 

Revolutionary idea here maybe they can do what you said and also spend in FA 

Bellinger makes sense if they think he's going to be better than PCA during the life of the contract. If they sign him, it makes PCA redundant and tradable. Although there are no guarantees, I think the Cubs see PCA as the better player with the added benefit of also costing less money.

So, it's not really a let's get Belliner type of decision. It's a where do we have holes and how do we best fill them type of decision. I'm fine if they resign Bellinger and trade PCA, but I don't think that is what they will do. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

49 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

lol who cares.  They had like the 6th best run differential last year, it’s time to go for it.  Anybody in this fan base that thinks like you do is being ridiculous and how you end up 108 years without a championship 

Revolutionary idea here maybe they can do what you said and also spend in FA 

Trust me, signing guys who bounced back to half of their former glory after 3 seasons of being nearly useless to top-of-the-market deals will contribute to long droughts a lot more consistently. 

[Chicago Al]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I go back and forth on Bellinger. I know people have concerns about his hard hit rate, EV, barrel rate and all of that. But part of that is because with 2 strikes he made a conscience effort to just slap the ball. That would cause issues with all of that. He did produce. And sometimes guys just produce bette than their underlying numbers. That said, I have no interest in him if he is talking $300M. Honestly not even interested in the $200M plus range. But if they were able to do a Swanson like deal AND they kept him in centerfield, I wouldn’t mind having him back. Of course, this would mean moving PCA. And I would be fine with that as long as he brought back at least 2 quality major league players with maybe 3 years of control left. Maybe to a team looking to rebuild for a player or two staring to get expensive. If he isn’t going to be in center and/or someone else is willing to give him $200M+ I am fine with not getting him. 

Maybe, just maybe Bellinger was a $300M guy from 2017-2019 but it’s mot even close now. He has a bounce back year and all of a sudden his asking price is through the roof. He might get close to $200M.

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

So you never want the top super star players in the Cubs. I already knew that. Luckily for you Ricketts and Hoyer agree with you. They are very happy to be an average team 

That's a bit much.   The right deal I have no issue with.   If the Cubs like Yamamoto, or maybe Ohtani, or Soto next year.  Or they could get some other TORP on 6 or 7 years.  They'll probably only carry one mega contract so make it a good one, maximize the prime years etc

I don't think having a "star" is the right focus anyways.  The win column doesn't care about "stars".  We need wins.  We have holes at SP, 3B, 1B, CF, so-so catchers and a mediocre pen, there's lots of room to spend and improve.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

That's a bit much.   The right deal I have no issue with.   If the Cubs like Yamamoto, or maybe Ohtani, or Soto next year.  Or they could get some other TORP on 6 or 7 years.  They'll probably only carry one mega contract so make it a good one, maximize the prime years etc

I don't think having a "star" is the right focus anyways.  The win column doesn't care about "stars".  We need wins.  We have holes at SP, 3B, 1B, CF, so-so catchers and a mediocre pen, there's lots of room to spend and improve.

What is a bit much? What superstar is going to sign for 6 years when every other team is offering 10 years? Hell even a guy like Bogaerts got 10+ years. Now that is stupid. I am talking about the real stars. Harper, Machado, Ohtani, Seager, Judge, Soto…. How do you get those guys for 5 or 6 years when people offer 10? Unless the Cubs don’t want those guys they have to offer the years. 
And I am fine with anyone, including you, who isn’t comfortable with gicing those years. I do understand it. But you have to also understand they aren’t getting those guys without the extra years. 
Also, don’t bring pitchers into the discussion. I have no issue with the Cubs or any team not giving a pitcher 10 years. If Yamamoto gets that type a deal I am fine with the Cubs not going there with him. To tell you the truth, I am not thrilled with the idea of 10+ year deals either. But I know that is the cost of doing business with those stars. 

[UMFan83]

Why do I feel like there's a 90% chance we're sitting there in mid-February waiting to find out if we resigned Bellinger to salvage our offseason?

Seems like one of those FAs where its going to turn into a battle of wills between Boras and interested teams.  The good news is the Yankees have their OFs, the Blue Jays with Ohtani are out, I doubt the Dodgers will give him a long term deal after non-tendering him a year ago.  Probably will have a mix of teams like San Francisco, LAA, Seattle and the Cubs bidding for him.  If SF gets Yamamoto, that settles their fans demand for a big FA.  Just speculating LAA after losing Ohtani and keeping Trout.  

[Tryptamine]

Come on Jed, it doesn't have to be Ohtani, but give us something. It doesn't have to be huge, hell I'd be pretty excited if it was Robert Stephenson, just give us something.

[Bertz]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

Come on Jed, it doesn't have to be Ohtani, but give us something. It doesn't have to be huge, hell I'd be pretty excited if it was Robert Stephenson, just give us something.

If Ohtani truly signs this afternoon I would absolutely expect the dam to break and a bunch to immediately go down this weekend 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

If Ohtani truly signs this afternoon I would absolutely expect the dam to break and a bunch to immediately go down this weekend 

I hope so. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

[LBiittner]

Why is FullCountTommy speculating Asaad or Wesneski for mj Melendez? 

Is this a rumor that's really out there?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Why is FullCountTommy speculating Asaad or Wesneski for mj Melendez? 

Is this a rumor that's really out there?

No, the article he quoted says the Royals are aggressively pursuing SP in both FA and trade, and Melendez is one of the players who could go the other direction in trade.  But no mention of the Cubs in particular.

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Bellinger makes sense if they think he's going to be better than PCA during the life of the contract. If they sign him, it makes PCA redundant and tradable. Although there are no guarantees, I think the Cubs see PCA as the better player with the added benefit of also costing less money.

So, it's not really a let's get Belliner type of decision. It's a where do we have holes and how do we best fill them type of decision. I'm fine if they resign Bellinger and trade PCA, but I don't think that is what they will do. 

Cost saving I 100% agree with. But it isn’t just Bellinger versus PCA. It is Bellinger plus who you trade PVA for.  Maybe 1 year of Glasnow, 3 years of Lowe and maybe 3 or more years of someone else from TB versus PCA and hopefully spending money to fill other holes, since you saved so much. 
Another option for PCA is Clase, Bieber and Naydor( as another example). Maybe PCA and Wesneski? Polanco, Ryan and Jax.? Cabrera, Burger, Puk? In all options PCA is the main piece going back. I understand all might  it be available. I am just giving ideas of who actually matches up in valuation to PCA or PCA with a small extra. 

If the Cubs believe  Bellinger can stay a solid offensive player and his market drops to something like Nimmo or Swanson got, he could make sense. But not at $300m or even $200M tbh. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

What is a bit much? What superstar is going to sign for 6 years when every other team is offering 10 years? Hell even a guy like Bogaerts got 10+ years. Now that is stupid. I am talking about the real stars. Harper, Machado, Ohtani, Seager, Judge, Soto…. How do you get those guys for 5 or 6 years when people offer 10? Unless the Cubs don’t want those guys they have to offer the years. 
And I am fine with anyone, including you, who isn’t comfortable with gicing those years. I do understand it. But you have to also understand they aren’t getting those guys without the extra years. 
Also, don’t bring pitchers into the discussion. I have no issue with the Cubs or any team not giving a pitcher 10 years. If Yamamoto gets that type a deal I am fine with the Cubs not going there with him. To tell you the truth, I am not thrilled with the idea of 10+ year deals either. But I know that is the cost of doing business with those stars. 

I said TORP for 6-7 years. 30 y/o TORPs like Nola etc are signing for 6-7 years.   Yamamoto will probably get around 10, which is fine given the age.  Soto, Harper etc get 10+ which is fine too given the age.

[Bertz]

 

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I said TORP for 6-7 years. 30 y/o TORPs like Nola etc are signing for 6-7 years.   Yamamoto will probably get around 10, which is fine given the age.  Soto, Harper etc get 10+ which is fine too given the age.

We are going nowhere with this. Let me ask you this. Are you in favor of the Cubs giving Ohtani a 10+!year deal? Answer only that question, yes or no. And if it is no, how do you expect the Cubs to get him if others are giving those years? It’s just not realistic to say the Cubs should give him a 7 or & year deal and he should take that over 10-12 years. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

Any non Ohtani rumor is good to see. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Almost certainly shuts the door on them trading for a SP at this point.

[Layoutman]

Cubs free agent target: Phil Maton (msn.com)

Thoughts on Phil Maton? 2 years 12 million. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

We are going nowhere with this. Let me ask you this. Are you in favor of the Cubs giving Ohtani a 10+!year deal? Answer only that question, yes or no. And if it is no, how do you expect the Cubs to get him if others are giving those years? It’s just not realistic to say the Cubs should give him a 7 or & year deal and he should take that over 10-12 years. 

I honestly have no idea.  Maybe?

Would you give him a 12 year deal at 55m AAV if he's worth 1-3 WAR annually over his first 6 years and 8-10 WAR over his last 6 years?

[Derwood]

31 minutes ago, 84 Cubs said:

Cubs free agent target: Phil Maton (msn.com)

Thoughts on Phil Maton? 2 years 12 million. 

 

Literally "who??"

[Layoutman]

8 hours ago, Derwood said:

 

Literally "who??"

It's why I asked!

[Bertz]

15 hours ago, 84 Cubs said:

Cubs free agent target: Phil Maton (msn.com)

Thoughts on Phil Maton? 2 years 12 million. 

Maton would be this year's Boxberger.  He wouldn't necessarily work out that poorly, but he's a veteran 7th inning guy who just doesn't have the fastball for anything more.

I think, despite how rough the bullpen was at the very end of the year, a depth signing like that doesn't make sense for this year's team, ss IMO we'rein need of qualityover quantity currently. 

We've currently got Alzolay, Merryweather, Smyly absolutely locked into spots.  Leiter, Cuas, and a long reliever each seem likely.  You'd probably also like a spot for Palencia and Little to compete for?  So that only leaves one spot to fill externally, and you'd ideally like a legit late inning option.  

You could free up a second or third spot by dumping Leiter or only carrying one of Cuas/Little/Palencia to open the year, but again I'd hate to do that just for someone of Maton's ilk.

I think some folks like Al saw the bullpen in September and thought "we need a bunch of reinforcements!" but IMO we're in a situation where one $10M arm would make a lot more impact than two $5M arms.

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Maton would be this year's Boxberger.  He wouldn't necessarily work out that poorly, but he's a veteran 7th inning guy who just doesn't have the fastball for anything more.

I think, despite how rough the bullpen was at the very end of the year, a depth signing like that doesn't make sense for this year's team, ss IMO we'rein need of qualityover quantity currently. 

We've currently got Alzolay, Merryweather, Smyly absolutely locked into spots.  Leiter, Cuas, and a long reliever each seem likely.  You'd probably also like a spot for Palencia and Little to compete for?  So that only leaves one spot to fill externally, and you'd ideally like a legit late inning option.  

You could free up a second or third spot by dumping Leiter or only carrying one of Cuas/Little/Palencia to open the year, but again I'd hate to do that just for someone of Maton's ilk.

I think some folks like Al saw the bullpen in September and thought "we need a bunch of reinforcements!" but IMO we're in a situation where one $10M arm would make a lot more impact than two $5M arms.

How about a $20M arm(Hader)?

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

How about a $20M arm(Hader)?

I don't think that contract is a good idea, but I'd be more open to grabbing a guy of that caliber in trade than I've been in a long time.  

Let's say you trade for Clase and re-sign David Robertson.  Run a bullpen out there of:

CL - Clase

SU - Adbert, Merryweather, Robertson

MR - Leiter, Cuas, Smyly

LR - Assad

That's a lockdown group, has quality depth behind it in Iowa. and Jed's still got $50-60M to throw at the rest of the roster.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I don't think that contract is a good idea, but I'd be more open to grabbing a guy of that caliber in trade than I've been in a long time.  

Let's say you trade for Clase and re-sign David Robertson.  Run a bullpen out there of:

CL - Clase

SU - Adbert, Merryweather, Robertson

MR - Leiter, Cuas, Smyly

LR - Assad

That's a lockdown group, has quality depth behind it in Iowa. and Jed's still got $50-60M to throw at the rest of the roster.

Honestly I don’t love the idea of spending $20M on a closer. And, if somehow, they do get Ohtani I don’t see them spending that kind of money for a closer. But they might if they don’t sign Ohtani.