Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It certainly is part of it (I'd argue it's certainly not all of it). But also, trading out, say, Bellinger out for the Hoskins/Belt/Naylor crew is unlikely for that trend to continue.

But even a partial season of PCA instead of Mancini/Hosmer/Candelario probably adds a chunk back?  Said a different way, the Cubs were tied for 1st in BsR and by that metric Bellinger was the 4th biggest positive impact, closer to Morel in 5th than to the top 3 of Hoerner/Swanson/Mastrobuoni.  Will they be 1st overall again?  I wouldn't necessarily bet on it.  Would I continue to estimate they're a bit better an offense than team wRC+ implies?  I'd say yes.

[Bertz]

The Cubs outperformed their BaseRuns expectation on offense by 0.15 runs per game.  They underperformed their BaseRuns expectation on defense by....0.15 runs per game.  So the team's a smidge better balanced than their RS/RA would indicate but it all mostly washes out.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, LBiittner said:

My anticipation has deflated to just blah now.

I need some upbeat cub news 

If it helps....as long as the Cubs are not signing anyone major it seems they can still be in the Ohtani hunt.

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

But even a partial season of PCA instead of Mancini/Hosmer/Candelario probably adds a chunk back?  Said a different way, the Cubs were tied for 1st in BsR and by that metric Bellinger was the 4th biggest positive impact, closer to Morel in 5th than to the top 3 of Hoerner/Swanson/Mastrobuoni.  Will they be 1st overall again?  I wouldn't necessarily bet on it.  Would I continue to estimate they're a bit better an offense than team wRC+ implies?  I'd say yes.

Well, that's fair, and maybe I could have been more clear, so that's on me, but I wasn't attempting to imply they couldn't outpace their wRC+ at all, but that I wouldn't expect the 12th best wRC+ team to be a top-6 offense based on their base running. That's a massive jump and one I don't expect to continue. If' we're using fangraphs BsR, while base running adds value it's not a huge jump. The Cubs were 14 runs above average on the bases. Taking them away, the Cubs still scored the 7th most runs in baseball. Do I think the Cubs were the 7th best offense last year? No. I'd buy them being closer to the 9-11 range. Which, is fine, don't get me wrong, but I think the amount of runs their scored makes them seem a tier above where I'd suggest their offense is.

As we enter 2024, I think it's fair to suggest they have components to win on the margins and outpace their wRC+. I don't think the drastic jump from a slightly above average offense in terms of run creation will manifest as a top-6 team in run scoring, too with out some lucky outcomes. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

If it helps....as long as the Cubs are not signing anyone major it seems they can still be in the Ohtani hunt.

The dirty secret is that they can sign anyone major and still be in on Ohtani.

[LBiittner]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If it helps....as long as the Cubs are not signing anyone major it seems they can still be in the Ohtani hunt.

I guess Jed is remaining true to ohtani's wishes and still not divulging any cub/ohtani information?

Now you are giving me a glimmer of hope. Silly me

 

[CubinNY]

Not Cubs off-season, but JFC , Yommamoto may go to the Dodgers too. If Ohtani goes and gets $500M and Yamamoto gets close to $300M that will be something. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

One small caveat is that wRC+ is not incorporating baserunning, and the Cubs were an elite baserunning team which is part of why despite being 12th in wRC+ they were 6th in runs.

Exactly.   Cubs were tied for best baserunning runs in the MLB.  Also were 6th in runs scored and 3rd in NL behind Dodgers and Braves is pretty good.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Stratos

[NorthsideAvenger]

56 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Not Cubs off-season, but JFC , Yommamoto may go to the Dodgers too. If Ohtani goes and gets $500M and Yamamoto gets close to $300M that will be something. 

I can see Yamamoto going to L.A. but still believe it'll be either the Giants (who is desperate for a star) or the Mets (because New York).

Edited December 7, 2023 by NorthsideAvenger

[Stratos]

Jed speaks:.  Everyone here will be thrilled:

Quote

 

“As I’ve said a lot of times over the years, winning the offseason is probably more curse than blessing,” Hoyer said, per The Athletic. “Cody Bellinger wasn’t exactly a move that people were lauding tremendously last year, and it was probably one of the best free-agent signings on the market.

“You just don’t know where the best deals are going to come from. Certainly, there are immensely talented players on the market, but I think if you go in thinking it’s one of those guys or bust, you can make some really bad long-term decisions.”

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/12/07/jed-hoyer-speaks-where-things-stand-winning-the-offseason-a-window-of-moments-and-more/

Edited December 7, 2023 by Stratos

[muntjack]

Cool

[ToolDRT]

I just can’t stand him. 

[Tryptamine]

When your major market President acts like "winning the offseason" is a bad thing. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by Tryptamine

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

When your major market President acts like "winning the offseason" is a bad thing. 

How did that work out for the Mets last year?

[17 Seconds]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

How did that work out for the Mets last year?

worked for the rangers

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

worked for the rangers

And the Diamondbacks. 

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

worked for the rangers

Did it?  They caught some lightning in a bottle in spite of De Grom and Scherzer ending up hurt and still had to add Chapman, Scherzer, Montgomery, and Stratton at the deadline. 

[17 Seconds]

Just now, mul21 said:

Did it?  They caught some lightning in a bottle in spite of De Grom and Scherzer ending up hurt and still had to add Chapman, Scherzer, Montgomery, and Stratton at the deadline. 

they signed seager and semien to monster contracts the offseason before and people made fun of them

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

And the Diamondbacks. 

What?  They didn't do horsefeathers last offseason in terms of splashy acquisitions.

https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/news/diamondbacks-40-man-roster-transactions-2022-23-off-season

[mul21]

Just now, 17 Seconds said:

they signed seager and semien to monster contracts the offseason before and people made fun of them

Oh, so they didn't in fact win the '22-'23 off season then.  Got it.

[17 Seconds]

Just now, mul21 said:

Oh, so they didn't in fact win the '22-'23 off season then.  Got it.

come on

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Oh, so they didn't in fact win the '22-'23 off season then.  Got it.

I think Kyle hijacked your account

[gocubs218]

Even if they did “win” the off-season they are really the exception to the rule. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jed is 1) setting expectations/maintaining leverage/being noncommittal like basically every exec 2) 1000% correct.  Doesn't mean he can't be too conservative with the moves he does make, but teams that are consistently excellent very rarely are the ones making a flurry of high profile moves.  You can and be successful in the short term and maybe longer if you're good/lucky, but the Padres and Mets provide a very visceral example that it's not that simple.

[Rcal10]

41 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Even if they did “win” the off-season they are really the exception to the rule. 

Right now I would be happy if the Cubs qualified for a participation trophy for the off season.