Cubs offseason chit chat...

[chibears55]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

They're going to have to make 2 pretty big moves just to get back to where they were last year filling in the holes of Stroman and Bellinger.

They went 13-14 in Stroman's  starts,  so replacing his numbers just requires more of an upgrade move over a big move.

Someone like Assad might be able to match or surpass 13 wins in a full season. 

[Bull]

6 hours ago, chibears55 said:

They went 13-14 in Stroman's  starts,  so replacing his numbers just requires more of an upgrade move over a big move.

Someone like Assad might be able to match or surpass 13 wins in a full season. 

Pitcher wins are meaningless.

He produced 1.6 bWar. And a 113 era+, which would be good for 27th in MLB among qualifiers.

With his 147 ERA+ last year Assad stands a half-decent chance of replacing those numbers, but I expect a significant regression. 

And who replaces Assad's numbers?

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, Bull said:

Pitcher wins are meaningless.

He produced 1.6 bWar. And a 113 era+, which would be good for 27th in MLB among qualifiers.

With his 147 ERA+ last year Assad stands a half-decent chance of replacing those numbers, but I expect a significant regression. 

And who replaces Assad's numbers?

Those 13 wins are team wins in his starts, not Stroman's wins,  and Assad numbers get more then replaced by the new Starter they bring in..

But

My point was, it not going to take a really big addition to replace Stroman's team win totals of last season, whether it Asssad or another not so Big time SP as the poster I quoted was suggesting. 

[Bull]

13 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Those 13 wins are team wins in his starts, not Stroman's wins,  and Assad numbers get more then replaced by the new Starter they bring in..

But

My point was, it not going to take a really big addition to replace Stroman's team win totals of last season, whether it Asssad or another not so Big time SP as the poster I quoted was suggesting. 

Team wins in pitcher starts are almost as meaningless as pitcher wins. This is actually a great example of that. If the team was below .500 in his starts, but Stroman was a 113 ERA+, (good enough for 27th if he pitched enough innings to qualify) that shows you that he did enough to put the team above .500 and THE REST OF THE TEAM let him down in those starts.

Stroman was good when he pitched and his production will take much more than a warm body to replace.

What is so hard to understand about this?

[thawv]

16 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Glasnow for Mervis and Thompson has been brewing via rumors

I'm going to add to this.  Glasnow and Diaz for Steele and Mervis?

Diaz is 8 million AAV for 2 more years, and it gives the Cubs a couple of years to figure out a long term solution internally.   I'm not really sold on Steele as anything more than a #3 at best anyway.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, thawv said:

I'm going to add to this.  Glasnow and Diaz for Steele and Mervis?

Diaz is 8 million AAV for 2 more years, and it gives the Cubs a couple of years to figure out a long term solution internally.   I'm not really sold on Steele as anything more than a #3 at best anyway.

I don’t understand your desire to get rid of a solid starting pitcher under control and create another hole on the team in the rotation. Sure, next year Glasnow fills it. But for $25M. Who fills it after that? This off season most have talked about the Cubs adding a young controlled starting pitcher and you keep trying to get rid of one. Exactly what has Steele done the last 2 years to suggest that “at best” he is a 3? Sure, he might have some regression, but he is still a very solid starter. Why move him and why are you so down on him? 
 

I would like Glasnow for 23’. But not to take Steele’s place. 

[squally1313]

22 minutes ago, thawv said:

 I'm not really sold on Steele as anything more than a #3 at best anyway.

Wrong

[JD94]

We have enough money to spend and prospect capital that we shouldn’t be creating a hole to fix another (i.e. trading Steele). Morel is a different story. He doesn’t have a position, but has more value to other teams than he does for us. So if he gets traded, I’m okay with that one. I just don’t think there’s many, if any, scenarios where trading a guy like Steele or Hoerner makes sense. 

[CubinNY]

11 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm bored, and I think people are already aware of this, but this is why the baseball trade values site is almost entirely worthless.

 

 

Seems perfectly fair to me. Jed get it done. 

[mfcubs22]

I could understand the math behind trading Nico for a young, cost controlled SP or 3B, and then moving Morel into 2b. But it won’t happen, and I wouldn’t do it. 

Edited November 25, 2023 by mfcubs22

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, JD94 said:

We have enough money to spend and prospect capital that we shouldn’t be creating a hole to fix another (i.e. trading Steele). Morel is a different story. He doesn’t have a position, but has more value to other teams than he does for us. So if he gets traded, I’m okay with that one. I just don’t think there’s many, if any, scenarios where trading a guy like Steele or Hoerner makes sense. 

Trading Morel should only be done for a marquee player. Right now he’s the most productive hitter on the team. 
 

I really don’t understand the perception on here that Morel can’t play defense. Besides this year where they were moving him all over the place to start the season he’d been mostly adequate at 2nd and 3rd. 
 

People act like he’s easily expendable.

[Cuzi]

Morel has only payed 180.2 innings at 3B in his MLB career. In those 180.2 innings he has racked up -4 DRS and -3 OAA. That is not mostly adequate. That is pathetically bad. The only position he has been mildly successful at is 2B. 2B is a position that is entirely locked up for 3 years. He is also not a more productive hitter than Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ.

He is easily expendable because if he is so sought after by other teams, he has more value to the Cubs in trade than on the roster because he's just a DH on this roster, where a team like the Mariners could look at him as a 2B.

[CubinNY]

17 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Morel has only payed 180.2 innings at 3B in his MLB career. In those 180.2 innings he has racked up -4 DRS and -3 OAA. That is not mostly adequate. That is pathetically bad. The only position he has been mildly successful at is 2B. 2B is a position that is entirely locked up for 3 years. He is also not a more productive hitter than Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ.

He is easily expendable because if he is so sought after by other teams, he has more value to the Cubs in trade than on the roster because he's just a DH on this roster, where a team like the Mariners could look at him as a 2B.

No other innings he’s played matter. Certainly not the three years he played I. The upper minors. 

also, those metrics are about as reliable as a 1980 Lada. 
 

Also, DH is a position. 

Edited November 25, 2023 by CubinNY

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

No other innings he’s played matter. Certainly not the three years he played I. The upper minors. 

also, those metrics are about as reliable as a 1980 Lada. 
 

 

DRS is very reliable as is OAA. They still can suffer in small sample sizes (which is fair to mention here, hes barely played 3b at the MLB level for example), but OAA is tracked through baseball savant, it's a strong foundation (as is DRS, and DRS uses arm value too). We also have how the Cubs have used Morel...which is that they avoided using him at 3b like the plague. He's played over 1000 innings  at 3b through the system, so it's not just DRS and OAA, it's also internal data and scouting.

 

End result, if the Cubs thought he was ready last year to play 3b, he'd almost assuredly have. If the Cubs were beyond a doubt convinced he could play it now, they would be unlikely to be publicly saying they're experimenting with him at 1b (they might think there's a chance he still improves and can play it, Im not sure i believe that they do, but I dont know so its a valid speculation). His defensive value is very much in question and I think it's fair to wonder if his best defensive position is a place the Cubs have solved currently.

 

I don't think he's someone we should give away, but we don't need a Marquee player on return. The Cubs seem to be focused on bringing in some sort of big hitting DH, further marginalizing Morel if successful. A young mid-rotation arm doesn't feel "marquee" IMO, but likely represents more value to the 2024 Cubs than Morel as a DH. Or worse, as a bench option. It's just about maximizing value. If the Cubs can turn a player they're luke warm on, or a player who they can replace similarly for a player they couldn't so easily find...then it's a win.

Edited November 25, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Morel has only payed 180.2 innings at 3B in his MLB career. In those 180.2 innings he has racked up -4 DRS and -3 OAA. That is not mostly adequate. That is pathetically bad. The only position he has been mildly successful at is 2B. 2B is a position that is entirely locked up for 3 years. He is also not a more productive hitter than Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ.

He is easily expendable because if he is so sought after by other teams, he has more value to the Cubs in trade than on the roster because he's just a DH on this roster, where a team like the Mariners could look at him as a 2B.

I do understand using Morel as a trade chip IF they get quality back. But I don’t rule him out as the 3rd baseman to start the year. Sure, 180 innings in the majors hasn’t been great. That amounts to 20 games. I am not willing to write him off as a 3rd baseman after 20 games. All we need to do is look at Wisdom. He was decent one year and sucked the next. Maybe we are seeing Morel at his worst. Maybe with work this spring he could be adequate. Even slightly below adequate isn’t awful if he hits. If they don’t get real value for him I would be perfectly fine with him on the team and at 3rd base. 
Maybe he can’t do it. Maybe that is why they didn’t put him there last year. If that is true I believe they will trade him. But if he can convince the coaching staff he could play 3rd this off season it would be a huge win for the team because they can fill that position cheaply and use prospects to fill another hole, not a productive ML hitter. 

[Cuzi]

13 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

No other innings he’s played matter. Certainly not the three years he played I. The upper minors. 

also, those metrics are about as reliable as a 1980 Lada. 
 

Also, DH is a position. 

If the Cubs looked at his time spent playing 3B in the minors and thought that he wasn't a butcher at the position, they would have stuck him there last year instead of going with Madrigal, a guy that had never played the position in his professional career and doesn't have the bat or the throwing arm to profile for the position.

DH is a position. It is also the least valuable position in the lineup, hence why a team like the Mariners would value him more to play 2B.

[CubinNY]

From my non-scouting perspective, Morel’s issues are throwing related and not catching related. I don’t know which is more fixable 

My point here is that many seem to be short selling him. Most of his contemporaries are still in AAA and AA. That kind of talent is worth a lot.

Also, defense metrics still aren’t worth a whole lot when most positions are bunched inside .5 standard deviation. In other words outside of glaring outliers they all are about the same.

[Cuzi]

Did I miss the part where someone said the Cubs should trade Morel for a rental reliever or something?

[Rcal10]

I think fans create narratives and then argue as if they are facts. And then they only choose examples to make their case and leave any other options out. I think that is what has happened with Morel. Those who want to suggest Morel came up and didn’t play 3rd are not wrong. That did happen. It is when we get into reasons why he didn’t that we start assuming.

My version of assuming goes like this. In spring, maybe the Cubs wanted to boost Madrigal’s stock so they played him at 3rd. They send Morel down and let him play 3rd in the minors. Then, when they brought Morel up they had options at 3rd. He was hitting at DH so they left him there. Maybe, had DH been filled by someone I hope fills it this year, Morel would have played 3rd. People want to point to the Cubs agreeing to let Morel play 1st in the DR. They say that is a sign they are still looking for position for him. They use Jed’s words when he says it is good for him to get exposure there too. But they leave out Jed also saying “we know he can play 2nd and 3rd” because that doesn’t fit their narrative. 
While I agree the Cubs may have some concerns about Morel at 3rd and I even agree it isn’t his best position. I don’t agree the Cubs have closed the book on that idea. I also think that if the Cubs did get a stud DH they wouldn’t necessarily have to trade Morel. If DH isn’t an option they just might put him at 3rd and take uneven play there. 
All that said, for the right deal(controlled starting pitcher-MOR) I can see him traded. I just don’t think he has to be. 

[CubinNY]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Did I miss the part where someone said the Cubs should trade Morel for a rental reliever or something?

Yes. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Bull said:

Team wins in pitcher starts are almost as meaningless as pitcher wins. This is actually a great example of that. If the team was below .500 in his starts, but Stroman was a 113 ERA+, (good enough for 27th if he pitched enough innings to qualify) that shows you that he did enough to put the team above .500 and THE REST OF THE TEAM let him down in those starts.

Stroman was good when he pitched and his production will take much more than a warm body to replace.

What is so hard to understand about this?

His starts produced 13 wins for the team last season despite and no matter how well he pitched in those starts, the team was 13 and 14 in those starts.

So again, my point was not about how good or bad Stroman pitched, my response was about duplicating or being better then the outcome of those starts, and getting those results won't take a big time SP to do so.

what so hard to understand about that?

 

 

[Cuzi]

Didn't Stroman have some of the lowest run support in the league when he was in Cy Young form this year? How many of his wins in the first 3 months of the season were because he was giving up 0-2 runs a start? How many of those games could have easily turned into a L because the pitcher was giving up 4 runs instead? Acting like the Cubs just need to find a .500 win rate pitcher to replace Stroman is disingenuous.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Cuzi

[JD94]

39 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

From my non-scouting perspective, Morel’s issues are throwing related and not catching related. I don’t know which is more fixable 

My point here is that many seem to be short selling him. Most of his contemporaries are still in AAA and AA. That kind of talent is worth a lot.

Also, defense metrics still aren’t worth a whole lot when most positions are bunched inside .5 standard deviation. In other words outside of glaring outliers they all are about the same.

Nobody is saying “give Morel away for whatever you can get.” He’s more valuable to a team where he can play 2B than he is for the Cubs playing DH. If he can be a headliner for a Soto or Bichette type trade, or for a young SP, then yes, absolutely trade him. If he’s on the Chicago Cubs in 2024, nobody is going to be mad. I’m not sure where you’re getting this whole “Morel is undervalued” schtick. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

I'm going to add to this.  Glasnow and Diaz for Steele and Mervis?

Diaz is 8 million AAV for 2 more years, and it gives the Cubs a couple of years to figure out a long term solution internally.   I'm not really sold on Steele as anything more than a #3 at best anyway.

This is a horsefeathers god awful trade

[Rcal10]

Just now, JD94 said:

Nobody is saying “give Morel away for whatever you can get.” He’s more valuable to a team where he can play 2B than he is for the Cubs playing DH. If he can be a headliner for a Soto or Bichette type trade, or for a young SP, then yes, absolutely trade him. If he’s on the Chicago Cubs in 2024, nobody is going to be mad. I’m not sure where you’re getting this whole “Morel is undervalued” schtick. 

But why does it have to be DH. Why can’t he coexist with Soto or Ohtani and play 3rd. I think those who suggest he is being undervalued really are suggesting him at 3rd shouldn’t be closed. Not suggesting they aren’t getting enough in a trade for him. As I have said often, I am fine with them dealing him. They just need fair value. I haven’t seen anyone suggest he should be traded for a below average player. I don’t think anyone who wants to traded him has suggested he is not valuable. But they have closed the book on 3rd base for him. And that is what I disagree with.