Cubs offseason chit chat...

[WhyCantWeWin]

I would assume Wisdom gets non tendered, probably wouldn't net anything good in a trade. 

[Jason Ross]

5 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I would assume Wisdom gets non tendered, probably wouldn't net anything good in a trade. 

I wouldn't. Based on the signaling from the rumors, the Cubs seem to be prioritizing other positions than 3b this offseason, and even seem looking for a new home for Christopher Morel (who, I guess, in theory could be a 3b, but the Cubs don't appear to think he is). They'll need someone to play there, and while I'd expect Nick Madrigal gets the nod most days, Patrick Wisdom and Miles Mastrobuoni will probably get games there too as primary backups, at least until someone like Shaw or Murray proves ready.

All of this can change between today and 5 months from now, but I just wouldn't assume Wisdom gets the NT. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[thawv]

7 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Wonder if we'll see the Cubs making a trade or two here..

 

I don't really see a prospect that needs to be added to the 40 this year.  I think it would be more to free up roster spots for new additions.  

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Wonder if we'll see the Cubs making a trade or two here..

 

Doubt it. Unlike last year, the Cubs don't really have a group of 40-man choices to make. Perlaza elected for FA, Vazquez was added, the rest are either okay to be picked, or highly unlikely to be picked. Cubs won't add-40 men guys with the offseason I (think/ihope) they'll have to eat spots. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Padres owner dead. Soto trade even more likely now I bet

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Padres owner dead. Soto trade even more likely now I bet

holy horsefeathers. Just reading about him. I had no idea he was part of the O'Malley family 

Edited November 14, 2023 by CubinNY

[ToolDRT]

Slow couple of days so thought I’d just post this. 
 

 

Ken basically sees the Rangers being a factor here. 

[chibears55]

Wonder if Hader would consider pitching for Counsell and the Cubs, he'd be exactly what they could use in the pen.

[ToolDRT]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Wonder if Hader would consider pitching for Counsell and the Cubs, he'd be exactly what they could use in the pen.

But I hate him 🤣

[WhyCantWeWin]

 

 

[gocubs218]

40 man is now at 40 after adding Arias, Horn and Hodge. Definitely going to be some trades coming. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Wonder if Hader would consider pitching for Counsell and the Cubs, he'd be exactly what they could use in the pen.

Nothing in the Cubs past would suggest they will sign someone like Hader. I am pretty sure the Cubs will not be giving a 3 or 4 year deal for a relief pitcher. 

[Dfan25]

Surprised they protected 3 guys and the 40 man is full now . Maybe they plan to non tender some guys , but I doubt it , or they don’t plan to make a move for a while . I think it’s too early for a big trade , but you never know .

[gocubs218]

There are 3 or 4 relievers that could easily be non-tendered. Guys like Rucker and Killian are no brainers right now. 

[Stratos]

There was a video on Youtube I watched yesterday with clips from a recent interview from Hoyer.  I can't find the clip again.  Hoyer says the money spent on Craig Counsell is not indicative that they're going to go out and have a big blockbuster offseason.  However, he said it could happen if things go their way and deals fall into place.  Purposefully vague I guess.

I'm thinking they have a list of guys they're interested in and they inquire and probably make offers, but if the bidding goes so high that they don't feel it's a good contract then they move on.  Rather than targeting 1 or 2 guys they really want and go all-in to get them.  Probably what happened with the big SS last season and landed Swanson since he was by far the best deal.

[ToolDRT]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

There was a video on Youtube I watched yesterday with clips from a recent interview from Hoyer.  I can't find the clip again.  Hoyer says the money spent on Craig Counsell is not indicative that they're going to go out and have a big blockbuster offseason.  However, he said it could happen if things go their way and deals fall into place.  Purposefully vague I guess.

I'm thinking they have a list of guys they're interested in and they inquire and probably make offers, but if the bidding goes so high that they don't feel it's a good contract then they move on.  Rather than targeting 1 or 2 guys they really want and go all-in to get them.  Probably what happened with the big SS last season and landed Swanson since he was by far the best deal.

If they’re interested in Ohtani they better damn well know it’s gonna me a huge contract and be aggressive. None of this “we tried but he got 200 million more than we were comfortable with” crap. 

[Stratos]

15 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Surprised they protected 3 guys and the 40 man is full now . Maybe they plan to non tender some guys , but I doubt it , or they don’t plan to make a move for a while . I think it’s too early for a big trade , but you never know .

They'll make moves no doubt.

If they acquire 1 INF, 1 OF, 1 SP, and 2 relievers that's 5 spots to make room.  Probably a combo of non-tenders and trades.

Heuer, Rucker, and others on the bubble.

Canario has played some CF in AAA and MLB, if no Bellinger then maybe they go with him to platoon with Tauchman instead of going to FA i.e. Bader?  PCA has a shot but is LHB, both on the 40-man already.

 

[Bertz]

Really good look at Bellinger.  Tl;dr is he improved a lot but he doesn't really have a prayer at sustaining that 140 wRC+

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is how I end up reacting to a lot of contact quality/expected outcomes analysis

 

That's almost certainly irrational/homerism on my part, but I think that while this did make a better effort than most of the takes I see in this vein, I think it atomizes outcomes to a degree where you are looking at silos of results independent of their interactivity

[Bertz]

46 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

This is how I end up reacting to a lot of contact quality/expected outcomes analysis

 

That's almost certainly irrational/homerism on my part, but I think that while this did make a better effort than most of the takes I see in this vein, I think it atomizes outcomes to a degree where you are looking at silos of results independent of their interactivity

There's definitely a lot of that that happens with the Statcast xstats, but in this specific case with how universally the comp list took a step back and with Petriello very specifically looking at his 2-strike approach it feels pretty hard to poke holes in it?

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There's definitely a lot of that that happens with the Statcast xstats, but in this specific case with how universally the comp list took a step back and with Petriello very specifically looking at his 2-strike approach it feels pretty hard to poke holes in it?

I tend to be pretty hesitant to rely much on xData, as there's plenty of weird tidbits and fiddly nonsense in them. That said, just the savant data alone, the quality of contact and the BABIP on Bellinger's 2 strike approach...I'm concerned with Bellinger moving forward. I think some of that is how he handles 2 strikes he's going to get some BABIP luck. But there's also too much for me to think it can continue. Extreme outlier data, like Belli's 2-strike success last year is generally very hard to repeat. Especially if the plan is for Bellinger to spend most of his contract at 1b, a position far more dependent on his bat than CF, I remain fairly luke warm on the prospect of a long term Bellinger contract. Not entirely out, mind you, but there are players I'd much prefer the Cubs spend their money on first.

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I tend to be pretty hesitant to rely much on xData, as there's plenty of weird tidbits and fiddly nonsense in them. That said, just the savant data alone, the quality of contact and the BABIP on Bellinger's 2 strike approach...I'm concerned with Bellinger moving forward. I think some of that is how he handles 2 strikes he's going to get some BABIP luck. But there's also too much for me to think it can continue. Extreme outlier data, like Belli's 2-strike success last year is generally very hard to repeat. Especially if the plan is for Bellinger to spend most of his contract at 1b, a position far more dependent on his bat than CF, I remain fairly luke warm on the prospect of a long term Bellinger contract. Not entirely out, mind you, but there are players I'd much prefer the Cubs spend their money on first.

The other side of the coin is this

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-bellinger-and-paredes-it-pays-to-pull/

tl;dr being that xstats don't generally look at spray angle, and Bellinger is very much an outlier there.  If he just naturally has a crazy rate of pulled fly balls, he doesn't need light tower power to rack up dongs.

But yeah, the preponderance of evidence is on Bellinger being more good than great offensively going forward.  That doesn't justify substantial money at 1B, and while attrition can certainly hit our outfielder and force Bellinger into a more valuable position, $150M+ is way too much for that insurance policy IMO.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

42 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There's definitely a lot of that that happens with the Statcast xstats, but in this specific case with how universally the comp list took a step back and with Petriello very specifically looking at his 2-strike approach it feels pretty hard to poke holes in it?

This one in particular was the most comprehensive look I've seen of this type of analysis, so kudos to Petriello for chasing down the stuff about 2 strike approach and the drop in K rate.  I guess for me when you look at this stuff you end up doing one of two things.  You ignore interactivity and end up doing twitter-level superficial analysis under the guise of advanced metrics(this is how most people interact with expected/batted ball numbers), or you chase down the interactivity and you end up in a place where you've abstracted away so much you aren't grouping things together meaningfully and/or you're now looking at such a small/disparate sample that it could just as easily be noise.  Like part of the thesis for Bellinger is over-performing his hard hit contact quality in less than 150 batted balls.  It doesn't take much variance and randomness to start moving that pretty materially, and there are other potentially sustainable factors that could be playing outsized roles here too(one example: the size of the Dodger stadium OF v. Wrigley).

All that said, I don't disagree with the idea that regression is coming for Bellinger.  I just tend to think it's likely to be more of a 10 point drop in wRC+ than a 25-30 point drop.

[ToolDRT]

 

[ToolDRT]