Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I wouldn't let the "report" worry you. It's Jim Bowden and this is the "report":

"But according to one major-league source briefed on the Padres’ plans, it’s more likely they hold him until next July and see where they are in the standings before deciding whether to move him."

Who that "major league source" is, is kind of important. It very much sounds like "someone in San Diego" because...who else would be briefed on their plans? And don't the Padres, a team everyone believes has to cut a ton of payroll, need to regain leverage? This sounds exactly like what that is. 

Kevin Acee, who's the Padres best beat reporter thinks it's a good bet he's traded. I'll believe the Padres will trade him until they don't. We've been hearing this idea that they won't trade him for a week or so or that they'll cut payroll by trading other players like Jake Croenworth. As of now, I expect he will be moved.

Yeah, I don’t buy the report either. I think Soto is traded this off season. If the Padres have to cut payroll they can’t keep him to the deadline to see how they are doing. They need to cut payroll. What happens if they are in the race and still have to cut payroll? How do they trade him then. I agree with 1908. He will be traded this off season until they prove he is not. 

[Jason Ross]

This is not a source I'm familiar with, but based on who follows him (Scott Chanington of Marquee, Dave Kalpan, Paul Sporer, Maury Brown) I feel as though this is worth a repost.

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

This is not a source I'm familiar with, but based on who follows him (Scott Chanington of Marquee, Dave Kalpan, Paul Sporer, Maury Brown) I feel as though this is worth a repost.

 

Darvish has been more valuable to the Cubs since he was traded than he was as a Cub. 

[JD94]

21 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

This is not a source I'm familiar with, but based on who follows him (Scott Chanington of Marquee, Dave Kalpan, Paul Sporer, Maury Brown) I feel as though this is worth a repost.

 

This feels real at this point. 

[Bertz]

I'll say this is the one thing that makes me think PTR might do what's necessary for Ohtani

Ohtani is so singularly popular, he might drive enough Marquee revenue to make him profitable before he takes a single AB.  For the last ~20 years, popularity has meant very little.  RSN money was largely fixed, and merchandise revenue goes into a big leaguewide pot.  But with the Cubs owning most of Marquee and having just launched a DTC offering, now might be a unique time where that off the field stuff really matters.

[Dfan25]

I think it was reported when Ohtani came to the states than the Cubs really impressed him with their presentation , but the problem the Cubs had was that there was no DH in the national league .  
 

It’s possible Ohtani likes the Cubs , but at the end i dont  think they will come close enough with the money . As Sharma wrote they will likely get outbid by a wide margin 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Dfan25

[JD94]

10 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I think it was reported when Ohtani came to the states than the Cubs really impressed him with their presentation , but the problem the Cubs had was that there was no DH in the national league .  
 

It’s possible Ohtani likes the Cubs , but at the end i dont  think they will come close enough with the money . As Sharma wrote they will likely get outbid by a wide margin 

 

 

I just disagree with the last sentence. You don’t waste your time pursuing Ohtani if you’re not ready to pony up. You can’t be half in, trying to get “cute” with a high AAV/shorter term contract or whatever. All you’re doing is wasting your time and Shohei’s time also. If you’re in it, and it’s reported you’re in it, it’s because you’re willing to go $400+M over however many years. You don’t waste everybody’s time by saying “okay Shohei, we are offering $250M over 6 years. Do we have a deal?!” You’re either willing to sit at the big boy table, or you’re not. Every team, every GM, every owner all knows the score going into this deal. 

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I think it was reported when Ohtani came to the states than the Cubs really impressed him with their presentation , but the problem the Cubs had was that there was no DH in the national league .  
 

It’s possible Ohtani likes the Cubs , but at the end i dont  think they will come close enough with the money . As Sharma wrote they will likely get outbid by a wide margin 

 

 

I think it's likely they will be outbid, but I think it's likely any team, Dodgers included, will be outbid. It's always more likely one team will go somewhere you won't or can't than not. With that said, I think it's hard to say what the Cubs will and won't do. 

Ohtani is unique in many ways. For what he does and how his contract will look. You can't really go "high AAV, shorter term" here because the Cubs or any team won't be offering $50m per season. I also think if you're sitting down with the Ohtani team earnestly, you have a ballpark number. 

I'm just not sure any team with honest effort will be outbid by a wide margin. They may be outbid, but I think those who are serious will be close-ish. And anyone outside by a wide margin wasn't serious to begin with and were likely wasting time.

[Dfan25]

3 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I just disagree with the last sentence. You don’t waste your time pursuing Ohtani if you’re not ready to pony up. You can’t be half in, trying to get “cute” with a high AAV/shorter term contract or whatever. All you’re doing is wasting your time and Shohei’s time also. If you’re in it, and it’s reported you’re in it, it’s because you’re willing to go $400+M over however many years. You don’t waste everybody’s time by saying “okay Shohei, we are offering $250M over 6 years. Do we have a deal?!” You’re either willing to sit at the big boy table, or you’re not. Every team, every GM, every owner all knows the score going into this deal. 

Who said they will offer a short term average  deal ? They could offer 10 / 400 and still be outbid by a wide margin . I have seen he could get 450 even 500 . I just don’t see the Cubs doing those kind of numbers if it gets to that point .

[JD94]

16 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Who said they will offer a short term average  deal ? They could offer 10 / 400 and still be outbid by a wide margin . I have seen he could get 450 even 500 . I just don’t see the Cubs doing those kind of numbers if it gets to that point .

Getting outbid by an AAV of $5M isn’t what I’d call getting “outbid by a wide margin.” When I think getting outbid by a wide margin, I think the Cubs coming in at a high AAV with less years to lower to total money. And if that’s the case, then why even waste everybody’s time? This isn’t to say you or Sharma are wrong, maybe I’m misinterpreting what “wide margin” means in this scenario. The difference between 400 and 450 over 10 years isn’t that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. 
 

ETA: Also if you’re willing to do 400, then why wouldn’t you do 450 if that is 100% your guy and 450 would get it done? That just doesn’t make sense to me. 

Edited November 10, 2023 by JD94

[ToolDRT]

2 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

I think it was reported when Ohtani came to the states than the Cubs really impressed him with their presentation , but the problem the Cubs had was that there was no DH in the national league .  
 

It’s possible Ohtani likes the Cubs , but at the end i dont  think they will come close enough with the money . As Sharma wrote they will likely get outbid by a wide margin 

 

 

This is where I am. I suspect Jed has a number in mind both in terms of years and salary and he’s not going beyond it. Whereas I think another team will get stupid with an offer. 
 

The former is probably for the best. But I must admit I’d be throwing a stupid offer at him probably 🤣

Edited November 10, 2023 by ToolDRT

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, JD94 said:

The Athletic also just reported that the Padres would likely wait until the deadline to trade Soto. 
 

I don’t understand that if they decide to do that. Maybe it’s just leverage to put that out there as in, “hey if you don’t give us what we want, we will just hold onto him for now.” You can’t justify trading Juan Soto in July if you’re right there in the race. 

I'm pretty unsure and skeptical of everything until we start getting those reports that such-and-such a deal is close.  Hot stove is fun to pass the time but I don't know why we do this to ourselves every year haha.  Big part of me thinks it would be a lot easier to just check in a couple of times a month in the offseason and see what moves have been made.

[JD94]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

I'm pretty unsure and skeptical of everything until we start getting those reports that such-and-such a deal is close.  Hot stove is fun to pass the time but I don't know why we do this to ourselves every year haha.  Big part of me thinks it would be a lot easier to just check in a couple of times a month in the offseason and see what moves have been made.

I think Ohtani is a different deal than most. He’s so unique and the best player in baseball. I personally feel like if you’re connected to Ohtani it’s because you’re willing to sit at the big boy table. Like Bellinger for example, a lot of teams will check in and test the waters because nobody is exactly sure what kind of money he will get. So there will be more rumors around his signing. Only a few teams can and would pay Ohtani, so fewer rumors. 
 

The rumors is what makes the offseason fun to me. I love them lol 

[ToolDRT]

1 hour ago, JD94 said:

I think Ohtani is a different deal than most. He’s so unique and the best player in baseball. I personally feel like if you’re connected to Ohtani it’s because you’re willing to sit at the big boy table. Like Bellinger for example, a lot of teams will check in and test the waters because nobody is exactly sure what kind of money he will get. So there will be more rumors around his signing. Only a few teams can and would pay Ohtani, so fewer rumors. 
 

The rumors is what makes the offseason fun to me. I love them lol 

Agreed. Winter meetings is one of my favorite times of the year. And I don’t mean just baseball wise. 
 

It’s always better when your team is active and gets a big fish. Here’s hoping we come away with something this year! 

[Jason Ross]

Per Mooney in The Athletic today. "But the Cubs again plan to be involved in Ohtani's process, a league source confirmed"

[Tryptamine]

42 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Per Mooney in The Athletic today. "But the Cubs again plan to be involved in Ohtani's process, a league source confirmed"

Nope nope nope. I'm  not doing this again. Every time I get my hopes up, they're crushed by a mountain of mediocrity.

[Tryptamine]

I'm absolutely baffled at the posters over on Mets Refugees and what they're willing to throw at Alonso. They legitimately think that 8/240 is a fair deal. I would be so pissed off if the Cubs offered him that deal. 

[Tim]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm absolutely baffled at the posters over on Mets Refugees and what they're willing to throw at Alonso. They legitimately think that 8/240 is a fair deal. I would be so pissed off if the Cubs offered him that deal. 

hahahahahaha

I hope the Mets do it, but unfortunately there's no chance Stearns makes that offer.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, JD94 said:

I think Ohtani is a different deal than most. He’s so unique and the best player in baseball. I personally feel like if you’re connected to Ohtani it’s because you’re willing to sit at the big boy table. Like Bellinger for example, a lot of teams will check in and test the waters because nobody is exactly sure what kind of money he will get. So there will be more rumors around his signing. Only a few teams can and would pay Ohtani, so fewer rumors. 
 

The rumors is what makes the offseason fun to me. I love them lol 

I can't remember where I read it, but some folks (maybe MLB execs?) speculated the Cubs would make a go at Ohtani but ultimately be outbid, that seems accurate for me.

Hoyer doesn't seem like a BS type of guy, I don't see him getting into serious talks agents unless he has genuine interest, unless it maybe comes from Ricketts to "make a show" for PR I dunno.

[ToolDRT]

https://fansided.com/posts/mlb-rumors-growing-buzz-around-shocking-ohtani-contract-desires-01hex0hpav6y
 

Basically Kiley McDaniel at espn reported hearing rumors of Ohtani wanting a shorter term (high aav) contract with lots of opt outs. Pretending that’s all accurate, it might give us a better chance. 

Edited November 10, 2023 by ToolDRT

[Backtobanks]

6 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

https://fansided.com/posts/mlb-rumors-growing-buzz-around-shocking-ohtani-contract-desires-01hex0hpav6y
 

Basically Kiley McDaniel at espn reported hearing rumors of Ohtani wanting a shorter term (high aav) contract with lots of opt outs. Pretending that’s all accurate, it might give us a better chance. 

I'm not sure I would pay all of that money if he can opt out before recovering from TJS.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is the source for those comments: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/38841651/mlb-2023-2024-top-50-free-agents-rankings-contract-projections

 

Quote

I'm asking questions but not answering them because his career has been a roller coaster with highs so high that there aren't any comparables. There's some growing buzz that Ohtani will want to answer this question by signing a shorter deal, then pitching in 2025 (and maybe 2026) before hitting the market again to cash in, but also maximize his earnings this winter. This would mean signing for something like a six-year deal at a high AAV (let's say $55-60 million per year) with an opt-out or two that he intends on using.

I'm guessing teams would be pretty hesitant to offer an opt-out after 2025 and a 55-60M AAV considering he won't pitch in 2024, but Ohtani is a singular player and free agency only takes one.

[ToolDRT]

7 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I'm not sure I would pay all of that money if he can opt out before recovering from TJS.

Yeah, I tend to agree with that. I know how much Hoyer seems to prefer the shorter term deals though. But honestly, this sounds like something the dodgers would love too. They have the money and did the Bauer contract at shorter terms with a high aav. 

[Jason Ross]

 

I've always questioned how legitimate Charles is, but he nailed the Darvish thing. At worst, it's another link to throw on the pile.

[JD94]

Buster Olney reporting that there in a 100% chance Juan Soto is traded this offseason.