2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists

[Jason Ross]

Good news: the Cardinals fairy dust seems to be on a bit of short supply recently.

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

BP's Top 101 is out, and it features 9 Cubs: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/87663/2024-prospects-the-top-101/

In full agreement on the top 7. I just can't see it on Wicks and Triantos. Triantos will hit, I have little doubt of it, but I sincerely doubt he hits enough to provide value at 1B and right now I'm not sure he can play anywhere else without it being a disaster.  Also, I'd have Brown over Wicks all day. Brown has significantly more reliever risk, but also has significantly better stuff. Wicks is a 4 or 5 if things work out.

[Bertz]

Horton at 3

 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Horton at 3

 

Matches the MLB Execs ranking of Horton.

[mul21]

Anybody have access to the Cubs on the list?

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2024-top-100-prospects/

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Anybody have access to the Cubs on the list?

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2024-top-100-prospects/

I'm not a big fan of BA anymore but still good to see.

 

[Jason Ross]

Cubs look like they'll have three guys who could get RoY votes in 2024 between PCA, Horton and Busch. PCA and Horton will depend a bit on when they get the call, but both have the ability to really blow up it wouldn't be surprising to see them finish in the top-3. Busch should get a full year and could jump into that conversation. With Pipeline and BA adding their names to the top-100's. they now qualify. 

[CubinNY]

21 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Cubs look like they'll have three guys who could get RoY votes in 2024 between PCA, Horton and Busch. PCA and Horton will depend a bit on when they get the call, but both have the ability to really blow up it wouldn't be surprising to see them finish in the top-3. Busch should get a full year and could jump into that conversation. With Pipeline and BA adding their names to the top-100's. they now qualify. 

Do you think that Horton is going to get a long look in Chicago this year? I would love that, but Hoyer has a prove-it mentality when it comes to minor leaguers where they almost have to force the issue. I suppose if he starts in AAA (is that likely?) and dominates... 

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Do you think that Horton is going to get a long look in Chicago this year? I would love that, but Hoyer has a prove-it mentality when it comes to minor leaguers where they almost have to force the issue. I suppose if he starts in AAA (is that likely?) and dominates... 

Aside from Mervis, who it's really clear the org doesn't think much of, who's the last prospect to spend extended time in Iowa even if they were producing?

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Aside from Mervis, who it's really clear the org doesn't think much of, who's the last prospect to spend extended time in Iowa even if they were producing?

Morel just last year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Morel was up for good on May 9th after less than 30 games in Iowa, that's a pretty expansive definition of extended time.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Morel was up for good on May 9th after less than 30 games in Iowa, that's a pretty expansive definition of extended time.

After skipping Iowa the first time no less!

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I'm not a big fan of BA anymore but still good to see.

 

A SS who likely won't play SS, a 3B who likely won't play 3B, and an OF who is best suited as a DH.  Defense be damned!

Seriously though, it is surprising to see 5 Cubs in the top 50.  I like Matt Shaw, but I'm not sure he really belongs at 31 after a total of 157 minor league at bats.

[CubinNY]

15 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Aside from Mervis, who it's really clear the org doesn't think much of, who's the last prospect to spend extended time in Iowa even if they were producing?

I don't know, Happ? They haven't had that many. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm not a big fan of BA anymore but still good to see.

 

Also, Moisés Ballesteros and Kevin Alcántara made the list of 15 guys who just missed their top 100 list.

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Do you think that Horton is going to get a long look in Chicago this year? I would love that, but Hoyer has a prove-it mentality when it comes to minor leaguers where they almost have to force the issue. I suppose if he starts in AAA (is that likely?) and dominates... 

I honestly feel Cade Horton is about ready today to start in the MLB. The fastball/slider combination is great, he quickly learned how to add a solid changeup that has real solid spin rates into the arsenal. We see Justin Steele essentially operate as a two-pitch pitcher in the MLB currently and Spencer Strider (who I think Horton most compares to) came up as a two-pitch guy, and learned the changeup on the job. Horton is basically ready today. Maybe a month in Iowa to prove it. And just so you don't think I'm crazy, Bryan Smith basically said the same thing a few months ago. 

That doesn't mean much to what the Cubs will do, just my personal read on where Horton is. When it comes to the Cubs, they're never afraid to promote someone with a month or two in Iowa. Last year Wicks had 33 innings in Iowa before he came up, and then proceeded to pitch more innings at the MLB level over the Triple-A level. Canario had about one month of success in Iowa before he saw Chicago, and the Cubs gave Pete Crow-Armstrong a jump after a little over a month. Neither of the hitters were put straight into the starting lineup, but they weren't babied in Triple-A. 

I think the only thing that will stop Horton from getting his final bump to the MLB will be limiting his innings for the season. I expect he'll make, maybe, 13-15+ starts at the MLB level, however. And because I think the stuff is truly that good, I think he can be electric in those starts to where he can be in that top-3 vote getter conversation, yes. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think the only thing that will stop Horton from getting his final bump to the MLB will be limiting his innings for the season. I expect he'll make, maybe, 13-15+ starts at the MLB level, however. And because I think the stuff is truly that good, I think he can be electric in those starts to where he can be in that top-3 vote getter conversation, yes. 

Absolutely this.  There is no sense bringing him up in April if he is going to hit his innings limit by August.  Bring him along slowly in Iowa and, if all goes well, have him up in Chicago by summer and into the stretch run.

[CubinNY]

20 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Absolutely this.  There is no sense bringing him up in April if he is going to hit his innings limit by August.  Bring him along slowly in Iowa and, if all goes well, have him up in Chicago by summer and into the stretch run.

Innings are innings, it doesn't matter if they are in DesMoines or Chicago. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Innings are innings, it doesn't matter if they are in DesMoines or Chicago. 

They don't. But the Cubs can control them much easier in Iowa where, let's be honest, wins and losses don't really matter. I'd say we're looking at somewhere around 120 max IP for Cade Horton in 2024. In Iowa you can go on the "developmental list" for an indeterminant amount of days. In the MLB there's no such thing. Can't have someone on the roster just...not pitching. And you can't bounce them between Iowa and Chicago easily with how players have to wait. And you can't have him throw 3 innings at the MLB level for a start and tax the BP.

So I expect him to throw 3 or so IP for his first few starts. I wouldn't be shocked to see him "start late". Or sit a week or two on the Dev list to keep the innings in check. I think Steele is awesome, have some pretty high hopes for Imanaga and think Taillon might bounce back some...but I think there's a real good chance by September Horton is a top-3 starting option (and maybe even top-2 if he's as good as advertised)...and you want him throwing when the games really matter if you can.

[CubinNY]

17 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

They don't. But the Cubs can control them much easier in Iowa where, let's be honest, wins and losses don't really matter. I'd say we're looking at somewhere around 120 max IP for Cade Horton in 2024. In Iowa you can go on the "developmental list" for an indeterminant amount of days. In the MLB there's no such thing. Can't have someone on the roster just...not pitching. And you can't bounce them between Iowa and Chicago easily with how players have to wait. And you can't have him throw 3 innings at the MLB level for a start and tax the BP.

So I expect him to throw 3 or so IP for his first few starts. I wouldn't be shocked to see him "start late". Or sit a week or two on the Dev list to keep the innings in check. I think Steele is awesome, have some pretty high hopes for Imanaga and think Taillon might bounce back some...but I think there's a real good chance by September Horton is a top-3 starting option (and maybe even top-2 if he's as good as advertised)...and you want him throwing when the games really matter if you can.

It will be interesting to see how they handle this. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Is Ferris now a top 100 prospect?

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Ferris over Wicks in Pipeline’s top 10 LHP too? I get it, velo is hard to downplay and any level of fan can intuit the importance, but already am exasperated at how cheap and easy Future 2.0 is going to be

I wonder which would benefit Wicks most in the prospect ranking meta rn: a couple MPH, an arm surgery, or being drafted in the first of ‘22 or ‘23 as opposed to the ancient times of ‘21 

Another potentially dominant secondary pitch.

[We Got The Whole 9]

24 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Yeesh, how many does he need? He’s added the cutter after two effective breaking balls just in the pros. Even then call me crazy but staying healthy as a pitcher and starter prospect, controlling and commanding a full mix as a prospect, successfully learning spin on the fly, having a nice meaty body of work as a prospect are all far more rare and harder to come by or coach into existence. Shaping up pitches are a cakewalk compared to building the kind of foundation Wicks has

I don't think that last part is true. Should you be able to improve the shape and movement somewhat easily? Perhaps. Can you improve it to the point where it becomes a viable weapon is the question and I don't think it's that easy. Correct me if I am wrong but I don't think any of his other pitches showed much in terms of stuff+. Only the slider graded above 100. So you ask how many more does he need? It can be argued to be multiple TBH. 

 

The think with Wicks is that I don't think any of us would be that high on his potential if he weren't a Cub. There are several reasons to believe he will have a decent career. We're gonna have to use the boring descriptors like he's a bulldog and he just knows how to pitch. But I think that if he doesn't improve the shapes significantly then his ceiling is capped and he doesn't have TORP potential.

 

Having the aptitude to pick up new pitches and have a deep repertoire is great. But it's still 5 pitches that weren't above average according to their characteristics. MLB hitters have their way with those pitches.

[Outshined_One]

Wicks' value to me (and I think Tom touched on this) is that he seems like the sort of bedrock pitcher who can have a long career and give you quality innings as a SP while under a rookie deal. He probably won't be an ace (although the same was said about Steele and Hendricks), but a lot of his value seems to come from between the ears rather than from his arm, if that makes sense. This team needs to fill out the rotation, and having a guy like him who can immediately slot into the 4/5 role is more valuable in 2024 than what Ferris would have given them in 2024.

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Several things!:

- It's not like I'm the only one saying this stuff about shape and even velo. We've heard it from Breslow probably multiple times by now esp since the pandemic and really several people around baseball if you read around. This isn't even the first time we're trudging through this part, I've definitely linked stuff in the past including this offseason. Feel free to search. Wicks has also very literally turned 3 new-er pitches into viable offerings in just the two full seasons he's been with the Cubs.

- We did the whole Stuff+ thing for Wesneski last offseason and all it ended up being was noise compared to a more comprehensive approach. 1 numberoftheweek from a brief ML debut perhaps shockingly ain't it. This is why I specifically mentioned Wicks' body of work, longer and more complete than most his age and younger. This is maybe another criticism I have of the current prospect meta: we don't know these people, there was a pandemic that took them off the field for a year so we know them even less than already imagined, and even knowing the info is short still want the one magic number

- No one's high on his potential now and he is a Cub! A dude recently in the org at A ball with a 14% BB rate over 56 IP was ranked over him by Pipeline yesterday and Cubs fans didn't blink! Ferris has plenty of Upside but it couldn't even be said with any certainty that he'll start at all and certainly he's years away from being an effective MLer. No one blinked!

- MLB hitters didn't have their way with those pitches!

- I submit boring is that seemingly every other MiLB hurler with some velo, a breaking ball, and probably a serious injury history is assumed to have serious upside as a SP but someone with Wicks' background - one that includes a K rate near 30% btw NCAA and MiLB  to go with the health, the command, the control, the constant demonstrated evolution, the contact management, the workloads, etc - doesn't. These popular (until they can ask for money) glass cannon types don't work without guys like Wicks holding it down

 

Again I understand that pitchers can improve shape, get velo bumps, and the like. But at the end of the day we are not yet able to say if they are viable offerings. 3 of his pitches were hammered, posting 400 wobas in the SSS. Having the kitchen sink repertoire and cerebral approach is great, but it actually wouldn't surprise me if sooner or later his mix is trimmed and more centered on 3-4 that are getting the most favorable results. His aptitude is high but if it were so easy to turn middling stuff into highly graded offerings then everybody would be doing it. There's enough good pitchers that have had to scrap certain pitches because they just never reached the desired effectiveness. It ain't that easy. 

 

It shouldn't be that surprising that a LHP one year removed from a HS that is a baseball factory and sits mid-90s with 2 breaking balls that project well, actually gets higher praise than the 3 year college LHSP who tops at 94 and gets by on guile, command, and deception rather than pure stuff. We see this a lot don't we? The 19 year old will get a lot more grace with the control and command and the college guy will be treated as if the ceiling is already within reach. To go back to your previous question: yeah if he got a velo bump and sat 95, touching 97-98, he would be higher up on boards. Without question. But the 4 seam was hammered to a 93 EV and the cutter that he is adding on the fly still obviously needs a lot of work as MLB hitters tattooed that one as well, albeit in a very SSS (although all of his pitch# are SSS as we know). All this did is affirm to the scouts that see him as a 3-5 that he will need a lot to go right and for some obvious changes that will be necessary to grab hold in order for him to reach higher levels.

 

I say all of this and I am still a fan of Jordan Wicks. I just think it's easy to see why he gets bypassed on some of these things. I think he will have a long, solid career though.