Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[Bertz]

22 minutes ago, Stratos said:

You're removing some talent and adding better talent.  You net gain talent yes, but not as much compared to if you traded Soto for minor leaguers who won't contribute next year.   Morel was our 3rd best hitter and makes no money so has surplus.  As a 1 year strategy it just doesn't make much sense to trade Morel when we can just as easily be trading prospects.  The Cubs need to decide if they're trying to win in 2024 or 2026.

Roster spots and playing time are a finite resource that you don't seem super keen on acknowledging

[Rcal10]

44 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Just get both Soto and Alonso. If you gotta trade Morel that is. I don't get the point of hoarding prospects and then not promoting/playing them. 

The problem with this scenario is the budget. Sure, they have enough assets to trade for both those guys. They don’t have, or I should say, they won’t spend the money. 

[squally1313]

Why is Morel expected to improve going forward? Is this 2.5 WAR projection just accumulation from handing him the keys to an every day starters job? All of 2 people had a single digit BB rate and a 30+% K rate (which he also carried in AAA this year, somehow) and gave you 2.5 fWAR or more. Jose Siri and Luke Raley. Neither above 3 wins, Siri being a very valuable defender. How you get marked improvement with that plate discipline profile and a complete lack of evidence of defensive skill is kinda beyond me. He's going to have unreal hot stretches and he's going to have times he's almost entirely unplayable. 

A lot of these arguments are weirdly circular and just seem to want to avoid doing anything. There may be some (very) marginal benefit to having a year to negotiate, but ultimately we're going to have to convince him that we're offering him more money than he could get anywhere else. That isn't generally an 'efficient' way of paying baseball players, but it's the way you need to do things if you want to get elite players. 

[Jason Ross]

40 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Why is Morel expected to improve going forward? Is this 2.5 WAR projection just accumulation from handing him the keys to an every day starters job? All of 2 people had a single digit BB rate and a 30+% K rate (which he also carried in AAA this year, somehow) and gave you 2.5 fWAR or more. Jose Siri and Luke Raley. Neither above 3 wins, Siri being a very valuable defender. How you get marked improvement with that plate discipline profile and a complete lack of evidence of defensive skill is kinda beyond me. He's going to have unreal hot stretches and he's going to have times he's almost entirely unplayable. 

A lot of these arguments are weirdly circular and just seem to want to avoid doing anything. There may be some (very) marginal benefit to having a year to negotiate, but ultimately we're going to have to convince him that we're offering him more money than he could get anywhere else. That isn't generally an 'efficient' way of paying baseball players, but it's the way you need to do things if you want to get elite players. 

This is just spitballing on Morel; I think it's fair to say that the jury is way out on Morel overall. Going back to his MiLB days, the scouting report on Christopher Morel was always positive on his defensive ability. We know his arm strength is really high, he's in the 99th percentile there. His athleticism is very high, he's an 81st percentile for his sprint speed, as well as being a positive on the base paths. He hasn't really shown much aptitude at CF, which has really hurt his defensive value as an MLB player, and he's always been an infielder. The Cubs seemed unwilling to play him at 3b last year and he's blocked at 2b with Hoerner (logging around 100 innings here). Why the Cubs refuse to play him at 3b is something no one can answer (though I suspect it's his arm slot when he throws, but that's just a guess).

If you're "high" on Morel, you probably see someone highly athletic, who posted a 119 wRC+ in 425 PA's last year and a career 114 wRC+ over 850 in his career who's more than athletic enough (in theory) to either handle 2b or 3b, though with his throwing angle I think you'd have to probably see a 2b as of today.  There's something with staying at a consistent position as well that should make him settle in a bit.  He probably wouldn't really need to improve; his 119 wRC+ last year would make him the 7th best offensive 2b. Brandon Drury (114 wRC+ last season) finished with a 2.5 fWAR, logged a -1 DRS in 700 innings at 2b (-4 in 500 innings at 3b), and was a negative runner. Even if Morel was a -2 or -3 DRS 2b, with his positive base running, you're looking at the profile of a 2.5 fWAR player.  Even if he's streaky, that's going to be a valuable 5 years of a 2b before he hits FA. 

That's not to say this is exactly what he is, just that if you're a Morel-fan, that's probably what you'd see. I can't offer any personal opinions on his defense; all we have are his MiLB scouting reports (which are always a bit shaky at best) and some basic observations from his savant data. Nor is that to say I'd stop from trading him for Soto; quite the opposite (just so you don't think I'm disagreeing with you). Only that I can see where some teams are high on him. I can also see from a Cub perspective, if you don't think he's a capable 3b, why he might be a bit "blocked" at his best position and you would feel like maybe moving him would make sense.

[JD94]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

The problem with this scenario is the budget. Sure, they have enough assets to trade for both those guys. They don’t have, or I should say, they won’t spend the money. 

I can’t remember the numbers exactly, but I thought after all was said and done (arb raises, declining Hendricks’ option, counting on Stro to opt in, etc) that we would have around ~90 mil to spend this offseason. That keeps us under the 2nd tax threshold and gives a few million to spend on in season acquisitions. If that’s true (I admit, I could be misremembering), we should easily be able to afford Soto and Alonso, & still have $ left over to fill out the rest of the roster. 

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

Roster spots and playing time are a finite resource that you don't seem super keen on acknowledging

If Soto is on the team, how is the team not better with Morel on it?  They can give him playing time at 3B, he can play SS or 2B if there's an injury, he can play OF if there's an injury.  Good hitters on the MLB roster who make league minimum are also a finite resource that you don't seem super keen on acknowledging.

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Would very much disagree with this.

The Cubs had Heyward, Smyly, Mancini, Barnhart, Bote, Rios, Hosmer etc on the payroll last year which cost about 50 million and contributed nothing and absolutely cost them wins and a playoff berth had they spent that better, not even mentioning underperformance by guys like Taillon, Fulmer, Boxberger etc.  They didn't have enough high surplus players or payroll to make up for these inefficiencies.

Sure there's luck and variance, and they absolutely had some luck in 2016 and some bad luck 2018-2020, but the 2015-2017 Cubs having high surplus guys like Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Russell, Hendricks (who all made under 1 million) wasn't simply luck.  They played a lot of good prospects which gave them payroll room to add quality players from outside the org and FA,

Again i'm not saying don't trade for Soto, i'm saying if they want to win with Soto in 2024 they should keep as many low cost quality players (surplus) on the MLB roster as they can, including Morel.  A prospect like Triantos is expendable in such a trade because the Cubs will get a comp pick anyways if Soto walks next winter.

[gocubs218]

37 minutes ago, Stratos said:

The Cubs had Heyward, Smyly, Mancini, Barnhart, Bote, Rios, Hosmer etc on the payroll last year which cost about 50 million and contributed nothing and absolutely cost them wins and a playoff berth had they spent that better, not even mentioning underperformance by guys like Taillon, Fulmer, Boxberger etc.  They didn't have enough high surplus players or payroll to make up for these inefficiencies.

Sure there's luck and variance, and they absolutely had some luck in 2016 and some bad luck 2018-2020, but the 2015-2017 Cubs having high surplus guys like Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Russell, Hendricks (who all made under 1 million) wasn't simply luck.  They played a lot of good prospects which gave them payroll room to add quality players from outside the org and FA,

Again i'm not saying don't trade for Soto, i'm saying if they want to win with Soto in 2024 they should keep as many low cost quality players (surplus) on the MLB roster as they can, including Morel.  A prospect like Triantos is expendable in such a trade because the Cubs will get a comp pick anyways if Soto walks next winter.

Why would the Padres accept a trade that’s headlined around Triantos? If you don’t include Morel, we are probably looking at a package that’s Alcantara+. Which I would still probably do but with Morel, you are looking at lesser prospects inclusion.

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

If Soto is on the team, how is the team not better with Morel on it?  They can give him playing time at 3B, he can play SS or 2B if there's an injury, he can play OF if there's an injury.  Good hitters on the MLB roster who make league minimum are also a finite resource that you don't seem super keen on acknowledging.

They "can" give him time at 3b, but the Cubs seemed entirely unwilling to do so last year; Morel had just 4 starts and it wasn't like there was a definitively better answer at 3b between Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom. There's a potential for that willingness to change, but the Cubs reasoning behind that is unknown to you or me. 

However if he's not going to be a 3b for the Cubs, then what's the point of keeping him after a Soto trade? He picked up 100 innings at 2b last year, and it isn't like the Cubs don't have multiple other options in Nick Madrigal, Luis Vazquez, and currently on a mid-June/early July ETA, Matt Shaw. DH will be completely monopolized by Happ, Suzuki and Soto. The amount of playing time and opportunities will be pretty limited. He's a terrible OF'er, and a worse CF'er (the one position there may be realistic time, because whomever isn't taking DH between Soto/Happ/Suzuki will be in the corners) and the Cubs have players like Alexander Canario and the potential return of Mike Tauchman who will provide plenty of options at those positions outside of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The amount of time available in the OF is next to nothing. 

So the entire equation comes down to "Do the Cubs think he's a 3b?" If the answer is "no" than I cannot see a world where the Cubs are getting much of anything except 150 PA's from Christopher Morel post-Juan Soto, and that's no where near worth trading from the 2nd tier of prospects (Alcantara-Caissie-Shaw-Ballesteros-Brown, etc) tier to ensure. If the answer is "yes" than you can make an argument that keeping Morel and trading prospects has validity, but again, it's answer neither you nor I can answer. And frankly, we have such limited data on, that we can offer little insight into whether we think he's capable there. That's entirely a "Cubs" question and in the event the Cubs trade Christopher Morel for Juan Soto, or don't and instead trade prospects, we will get our answer.

Edited November 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Tim]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

They "can" give him time at 3b, but the Cubs seemed entirely unwilling to do so last year; Morel had just 4 starts and it wasn't like there was a definitively better answer at 3b between Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom. There's a potential for that willingness to change, but the Cubs reasoning behind that is unknown to you or me. 

However if he's not going to be a 3b for the Cubs, then what's the point of keeping him after a Soto trade? He picked up 100 innings at 2b last year, and it isn't like the Cubs don't have multiple other options in Nick Madrigal, Luis Vazquez, and currently on a mid-June/early July ETA, Matt Shaw. DH will be completely monopolized by Happ, Suzuki and Soto. The amount of playing time and opportunities will be pretty limited. He's a terrible OF'er, and a worse CF'er (the one position there may be realistic time, because whomever isn't taking DH between Soto/Happ/Suzuki will be in the corners) and the Cubs have players like Alexander Canario and the potential return of Mike Tauchman who will provide plenty of options at those positions outside of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The amount of time available in the OF is next to nothing. 

So the entire equation comes down to "Do the Cubs think he's a 3b?" If the answer is "no" than I cannot see a world where the Cubs are getting much of anything except 150 PA's from Christopher Morel post-Juan Soto, and that's no where near worth trading from the 2nd tier of prospects (Alcantara-Caissie-Shaw-Ballesteros-Brown, etc) tier to ensure. If the answer is "yes" than you can make an argument that keeping Morel and trading prospects has validity, but again, it's answer neither you nor I can answer. And frankly, we have such limited data on, that we can offer little insight into whether we think he's capable there. That's entirely a "Cubs" question and in the event the Cubs trade Christopher Morel for Juan Soto, or don't and instead trade prospects, we will get our answer.

There's the argument to get the best players and figure out the positions afterwards. After all, somebody would be capable of playing first base in that scenario. I still like the idea of converting Soto there if he's willing. But Happ's got the infield experience to do it. Morel almost certainly could play 1B (though his arm would be wasted there), etc. 

[squally1313]

If the Cubs don't believe he can play third base or center field, and don't have a spot for him at second base, and other teams think that he can or have an opening at second base, that means that he's an asset that's worth less to us than to other teams. You can argue the Cubs are wrong, or that Morel is capable of getting up to speed at a non-first base/COF position in one offseason, but we haven't seen any evidence of that besides that he can throw hard. It's all wishful thinking and half-informed projections or like, retro-fitting Javy's Cubs career onto him. 

The Padres, as a team making a mini reset and looking to retool and cut costs for a year, are a perfect team to give Morel 650 PAs and all the time in the world in the field to sink or swim and see what comes out on the other end. So is any other team that's on either end of the competitive bell curve, either the rebuilders who see a potential future key piece with tons of team control, or a team very confident to make the playoffs who have the depth and cushion to exploit his hot streaks. The Cubs have a large majority of their PAs spoken for and need the rest filled out by improved performance they can rely on. Morel isn't it. 

[Petrey10]

Pls get both Soto and Alonso. That would be awesome

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

There's the argument to get the best players and figure out the positions afterwards. After all, somebody would be capable of playing first base in that scenario. I still like the idea of converting Soto there if he's willing. But Happ's got the infield experience to do it. Morel almost certainly could play 1B (though his arm would be wasted there), etc. 

While not impossible, this also feels a bit, video-gamey. Christopher Morel has already shown that he can't really relied on to play the OF, despite having many of the necessary characteristics (athleticism, strong arm), which many believe is a very easy switch to make (I disagree with this belief myself, just saying it's something I know is out there). The Cubs didn't trust him to play 3b despite the athleticism and the arm. I'm not so sure he can just play 1b, or, really, if it's a great idea. His bat isn't so good you have to force it into 1b. So far, in his career, Morel is a 114 wRC+ hitter, where as league 1b put up a 108 wRC+. He's a bit better then the average, but then you're teaching him a new position with little fall back options on the roster. It feels a bit square-peg-round-hole. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it feels less than optimal too. 

Secondly, moving Happ, a positive fielder, to 1b, to put Soto into LF, a negative defender, to get Morel, a slightly above average DH (league DH 106 wRC+, but these get a bit skewed as players who primarily DH only, usually hit well above that level) feels like a rob-Peter-to-pay-Paul situation. 

Both outcomes feel like less than the best outcomes the Cubs can have, when it might just make more sense to trade Morel for Soto, use your prospects or remaining funds to fill out positions. Jim Bowden is generally an idiot, but he has Candelario pegged at 2/$15m (total) this offseason. I'm not the biggest Candelario fan, but I think him at 1b makes more sense than either of the above options at that price. We can debate that price and I'm a bit skeptical on it, but it's just one example. 

Not meaning to tear down your suggestion, only that I'm not sure either are really great routes other than just making due and I think the Juan Soto thing will get done early enough in the offseason (based on reports) that I'd prefer the Cubs to do more than just make due. For me, Morel becomes pretty redundant unless he's an MLB 3b with Juan Soto. Which isn't to say I think he can't be a successful 2b or 3b, but that's really where his athleticism (in theory) should meet the bat ability at a place to maximize his value in totality. Maybe the Padres aren't enthused by Morel and we have to make due, I just don't think we'll be there if Soto gets dealt to the Cubs.

Edited November 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

They "can" give him time at 3b, but the Cubs seemed entirely unwilling to do so last year; Morel had just 4 starts and it wasn't like there was a definitively better answer at 3b between Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom. There's a potential for that willingness to change, but the Cubs reasoning behind that is unknown to you or me. 

However if he's not going to be a 3b for the Cubs, then what's the point of keeping him after a Soto trade? He picked up 100 innings at 2b last year, and it isn't like the Cubs don't have multiple other options in Nick Madrigal, Luis Vazquez, and currently on a mid-June/early July ETA, Matt Shaw. DH will be completely monopolized by Happ, Suzuki and Soto. The amount of playing time and opportunities will be pretty limited. He's a terrible OF'er, and a worse CF'er (the one position there may be realistic time, because whomever isn't taking DH between Soto/Happ/Suzuki will be in the corners) and the Cubs have players like Alexander Canario and the potential return of Mike Tauchman who will provide plenty of options at those positions outside of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The amount of time available in the OF is next to nothing. 

So the entire equation comes down to "Do the Cubs think he's a 3b?" If the answer is "no" than I cannot see a world where the Cubs are getting much of anything except 150 PA's from Christopher Morel post-Juan Soto, and that's no where near worth trading from the 2nd tier of prospects (Alcantara-Caissie-Shaw-Ballesteros-Brown, etc) tier to ensure. If the answer is "yes" than you can make an argument that keeping Morel and trading prospects has validity, but again, it's answer neither you nor I can answer. And frankly, we have such limited data on, that we can offer little insight into whether we think he's capable there. That's entirely a "Cubs" question and in the event the Cubs trade Christopher Morel for Juan Soto, or don't and instead trade prospects, we will get our answer.

Simply put, it all comes down to if the Cubs think Morel can play 3rd base or not. Something I said long ago. If they think he can and feel good about him at 3rd, I would hope they don’t trade him. They can go the prospect route instead, when making a trade for any proven talent. If, after working with him in the off season and maybe into spring training, they feel he cannot handle the position they probably should trade him.

This is why I said, IMO, Morel is the key to how the off season unfolds. 

And I don’t put too much stock into them not doing it last year. Morel came up and exploded as soon as he got here. I think they wanted his bat in the line up and didn’t want to add anything else to his plate at that time. I don’t feel they wanted to work with him as a 3rd baseman and try having him focus on that when they wanted him to hit. I think this off season is a perfect time to work on playing the position. 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Rcal10

[CubinNY]

I'm not fully on board with Soto due mostly to the great likelihood of it being a one year and off to free agency contract. However, if they trade Morel for him it will be a swap of DHs, with the Cubs getting the more productive DH. The Padres may have other plans for Morel than the Cubs do, but he's a DH for Ross. Ross isn't going to play Morel significantly anywhere else, because he's a redass. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by CubinNY

[thawv]

20 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Just get both Soto and Alonso. If you gotta trade Morel that is. I don't get the point of hoarding prospects and then not promoting/playing them. 

all of this!

 

[thawv]

15 hours ago, JD94 said:

I can’t remember the numbers exactly, but I thought after all was said and done (arb raises, declining Hendricks’ option, counting on Stro to opt in, etc) that we would have around ~90 mil to spend this offseason. That keeps us under the 2nd tax threshold and gives a few million to spend on in season acquisitions. If that’s true (I admit, I could be misremembering), we should easily be able to afford Soto and Alonso, & still have $ left over to fill out the rest of the roster. 

Using the CBT as the budget, they currently sit 47 million below that number.  That's including every arb guys projection.  If they pick up Kyle's 16 million, they now have 31 million to spend.  Maybe Gomes' 6 million?  The  number would now sit at 25 million to spend.  They better hope that Stroman opts out, freeing up another 23.7 million of tax money.  

If they pick up Kyle, and Stroman doesn't opt out, they don't have much money to spend this off season unless they plan on blowing by the CBT.  Which they should, as they're shedding another 50 million after 2024

[Rex Buckingham]

17 minutes ago, thawv said:

Using the CBT as the budget, they currently sit 47 million below that number.  That's including every arb guys projection.  If they pick up Kyle's 16 million, they now have 31 million to spend.  Maybe Gomes' 6 million?  The  number would now sit at 25 million to spend.  They better hope that Stroman opts out, freeing up another 23.7 million of tax money.  

If they pick up Kyle, and Stroman doesn't opt out, they don't have much money to spend this off season unless they plan on blowing by the CBT.  Which they should, as they're shedding another 50 million after 2024

They could easily go 30-40 beyond it then, right? If they're dropping 50 off after '24, that lets them reset

[thawv]

56 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

They could easily go 30-40 beyond it then, right? If they're dropping 50 off after '24, that lets them reset

Absolutely!!!  The question is, will they?

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

Using the CBT as the budget, they currently sit 47 million below that number.  That's including every arb guys projection.  If they pick up Kyle's 16 million, they now have 31 million to spend.  Maybe Gomes' 6 million?  The  number would now sit at 25 million to spend.  They better hope that Stroman opts out, freeing up another 23.7 million of tax money.  

If they pick up Kyle, and Stroman doesn't opt out, they don't have much money to spend this off season unless they plan on blowing by the CBT.  Which they should, as they're shedding another 50 million after 2024

Here's a pretty thorough look at the budget I did a few weeks ago.

My guess is that the limitations on the budget are more tied to multi-year commitments than 2024 dollars specifically.  Like I could see the team running a ~$270M payroll this year, but I can't see Jed putting himself into a situation where new multi-year commitments mean payroll is already like $230M for 2026.  That's what happened to Theo and Jed in 2019, and it really feels like Jed's being over-cautious the last few years is very much a "never again" response to that.

[thawv]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Here's a pretty thorough look at the budget I did a few weeks ago.

My guess is that the limitations on the budget are more tied to multi-year commitments than 2024 dollars specifically.  Like I could see the team running a ~$270M payroll this year, but I can't see Jed putting himself into a situation where new multi-year commitments mean payroll is already like $230M for 2026.  That's what happened to Theo and Jed in 2019, and it really feels like Jed's being over-cautious the last few years is very much a "never again" response to that.

I read it the day you posted it.  A lot of efforet was put in to it.

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

They "can" give him time at 3b, but the Cubs seemed entirely unwilling to do so last year; Morel had just 4 starts and it wasn't like there was a definitively better answer at 3b between Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom. There's a potential for that willingness to change, but the Cubs reasoning behind that is unknown to you or me. 

However if he's not going to be a 3b for the Cubs, then what's the point of keeping him after a Soto trade? He picked up 100 innings at 2b last year, and it isn't like the Cubs don't have multiple other options in Nick Madrigal, Luis Vazquez, and currently on a mid-June/early July ETA, Matt Shaw. DH will be completely monopolized by Happ, Suzuki and Soto. The amount of playing time and opportunities will be pretty limited. He's a terrible OF'er, and a worse CF'er (the one position there may be realistic time, because whomever isn't taking DH between Soto/Happ/Suzuki will be in the corners) and the Cubs have players like Alexander Canario and the potential return of Mike Tauchman who will provide plenty of options at those positions outside of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The amount of time available in the OF is next to nothing. 

So the entire equation comes down to "Do the Cubs think he's a 3b?" If the answer is "no" than I cannot see a world where the Cubs are getting much of anything except 150 PA's from Christopher Morel post-Juan Soto, and that's no where near worth trading from the 2nd tier of prospects (Alcantara-Caissie-Shaw-Ballesteros-Brown, etc) tier to ensure. If the answer is "yes" than you can make an argument that keeping Morel and trading prospects has validity, but again, it's answer neither you nor I can answer. And frankly, we have such limited data on, that we can offer little insight into whether we think he's capable there. That's entirely a "Cubs" question and in the event the Cubs trade Christopher Morel for Juan Soto, or don't and instead trade prospects, we will get our answer.

Well the Cubs aren't going to know if Morel can play 3B unless they play him there.

[Tim]

Just now, Stratos said:

Well the Cubs aren't going to know if Morel can play 3B unless they play him there.

He's playing winter ball, right?

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Tim said:

He's playing winter ball, right?

He is. But the Cubs have no control of where he plays for that team. He will play where that team feels they need him. 

[Jason Ross]

45 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Well the Cubs aren't going to know if Morel can play 3B unless they play him there.

Well, it depends on what you mean. If you mean the only way the Cubs will know if Morel can play 3b is by having him play there in the regular season, then, no.  Morel isn't going to sit on a couch between today and April. You and I won't have baseball savant data.  I'm sure the Cubs can figure out a way between today and Opening Day (winter ball, instructs, camps, training, etc) as to whether or not he can play 3b.  They also have data and scouting from his MiLB days when he played 3b.  The Cubs were able to find out if Nick Madrigal could play 3b over the same amount of time just last offseason and they didn't even have MiLB data or scouting on him at that position because he hadn't played there as a professional.

 

There are 5 full months between now and Opening Day.  If the Cubs are interested in finding out, they will.

Edited November 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs