Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I don’t think there is a Juan Soto thread yet but I figured he deserves one.

Cerami definitely has some connections within the Cubs organization as he’s had the scoop on moves a few times over recent years. Nothing too earth shattering here, but this is the first report I’ve seen of Cubs interest in Soto.
 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/10/10/juan-soto-and-the-cubs/

 

Quote

Up until now, the Cubs’ potential interest in trading for Juan Soto was purely speculative. Logical, sure, but we were just connecting the available dots. But after doing a little digging, I’ve heard from multiple sources that the Cubs’ interest in Juan Soto this offseason is real. That doesn’t mean the Cubs will get a trade done – lots of teams SHOULD have real interest – but the Padres’ ability to shed payroll while adding a great return, and the fit for Chicago, are both unmistakable. And that has me very excited.

 

[Chicago Al]

Not worth trading a good amount of top prospects for just 1 year of Soto… Better extend him immediately if he comes to Chicago.

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

Not worth trading a good amount of top prospects for just 1 year of Soto… Better extend him immediately if he comes to Chicago.

I agree that if they trade for him they need to extend him. If not he isn’t worth it. With only 1 year left and a $33M salary he isn’t going to cost as much as some think. 

[Bertz]

Curious what Soto ultimately costs.  BBTV says something like Brown + Caissie.  Even given Soto's salary that feels light.

The Betts and Lindor trades are a bit messy as comps since they included Price and Carrasco respectively.  Also the Betts trade blew up in the Sox face pretty spectacularly, so while it's a comparable situation AJ Preller is not going to gladly use that as a comp.

Ultimately though, Soto is the best player likely to hit the market after Ohtani, and the gap between him and #3 is miles wide.  Given that the Cubs have depth and need stars get Soto in the building and figure out the rest later.

[thawv]

6 hours ago, Bertz said:

Curious what Soto ultimately costs.  BBTV says something like Brown + Caissie.  Even given Soto's salary that feels light.

The Betts and Lindor trades are a bit messy as comps since they included Price and Carrasco respectively.  Also the Betts trade blew up in the Sox face pretty spectacularly, so while it's a comparable situation AJ Preller is not going to gladly use that as a comp.

Ultimately though, Soto is the best player likely to hit the market after Ohtani, and the gap between him and #3 is miles wide.  Given that the Cubs have depth and need stars get Soto in the building and figure out the rest later.

I think that they are way off with their estimate.  Soto is a one year rental. 

 

I'm going to use numbers from sites that do this kind of stuff, and not my numbers.  Trade Simulator has Soto as the high end of surplus at about 28 million.  FG has a 50 FV at about 28 million in surplus.  They have a 45 FV at about 7 million.  Using MLB prospects rankings, we have (1) 60 FV, (5) 55 FV, (5) 50 FV, and (12) 45 FV.  If the Cubs don't want to "overpay," they should send over ONE of our 50 FV guys, or 4 of our 45 FV guys.  

 

I can't imagine the Cubs sending over two 55 FV prospects for Soto.  That's about 80 million in surplus value.  I can't even imagine them sending over ONE 55 FV guy for him, without them send a nice chunk back.

IF they are going to receive Brown and Caissie for example, they should send back Lesko and and a smaller piece back with Soto.  

Edited October 11, 2023 by thawv

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think that they are way off with their estimate.  Soto is a one year rental. 

 

I'm going to use numbers from sites that do this kind of stuff, and not my numbers.  Trade Simulator has Soto as the high end of surplus at about 28 million.  FG has a 50 FV at about 28 million in surplus.  They have a 45 FV at about 7 million.  Using MLB prospects rankings, we have (1) 60 FV, (5) 55 FV, (5) 50 FV, and (12) 45 FV.  If the Cubs don't want to "overpay," they should send over ONE of our 50 FV guys, or 4 of our 45 FV guys.  

 

I can't imagine the Cubs sending over two 55 FV prospects for Soto.  That's about 80 million in surplus value.  I can't even imagine them sending over ONE 55 FV guy for him, without them send a nice chunk back.

IF they are going to receive Brown and Caissie for example, they should send back Lesko and and a smaller piece back with Soto.  

One thing to be careful with is that FG is a little less generous with their FV grades than MLB.  So I think if you're doing the FV -> $ conversion I'd stick to Fangraphs or ESPN prospect rankings (since Kiley was there when that analysis was run).

That would say something like Alcantara straight up or Brown/Wicks + Caissie.

[We Got The Whole 9]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

One thing to be careful with is that FG is a little less generous with their FV grades than MLB.  So I think if you're doing the FV -> $ conversion I'd stick to Fangraphs or ESPN prospect rankings (since Kiley was there when that analysis was run).

That would say something like Alcantara straight up or Brown/Wicks + Caissie.

Yeah that's where I'm at too. Give them Alcantara and, if necessary, someone like Perlaza, who could slot right into the OF and helps the 40. Perlaza has been 120+ in consecutive seasons at the 3 most important stops. He could surprise with the bat. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by We Got The Whole 9

[Sammy Sofa]

JUAN, ME BOOGIE.

[Jason Ross]

I think the ultimate trade for Soto will be somewhere in the middle.  Juan Soto is a really good baseball player, and he's going to have a lot of suitors, the Chicago Cubs aren't living in a vacuum. I also think he'll come in under what some people are going to suggest a talent like Juan Soto will go for because he's only got the one year. We cannot factor in the potential resigning into a trade; those two things are separate. Whether he resigns or not, that's between Soto and the Cubs, whereas a trade is between the Padres and the Cubs. 

I think we have to accept it'll take one prospect who hurts, and probably a secondary upside piece. I think Perlaza and Alcantara is light; Perlaza is fine, but he's DH level defensively and a bat that at his absolute upside is a ~120 wRC+ type with plenty of outcomes below that with it being more likely he's a 95-105 wRC+ DH type. So while I think Perlaza may interest the Padres as a "plug-and-play" guy, I think he's piece number 3. We have to win the trade over other teams, so I'd look at something like Alacantara/Brown/Caissie (one), plus someone in that 2nd/3rd fringe tier of prospects with upside. Maybe it's a BJ Murray if the Cubs think he's more on the DH track, or someone like Cristian Hernandez who has the prospect acumen but hasn't broken out. Maybe it's Michael Arias and his big, raw stuff, or maybe it's Canario instead of Perlaza and a lottery ticket. Either way, I think it'll be above the Alcantara/Perlaza (not calling anyone out, just using that as a springboard for the conversation!) in terms of how it'll hurt, but I'm not going to pause on any player I just listed off if I get Juan Soto. He'll be traded in the offseason, so there's a 2nd round pick coming back worst case if you can't resign him, which would take some of the hurt out and you get a career 154 wRC+ player coming back on the other side. Where do you play him? I don't really care right now, because he's just such a game changing hitter.

Juan Soto for me is about as "Best Case Scenario" as they come for the offseason. I want Juan Soto in Chicago and I want him here for a while.

Edited October 11, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[squally1313]

If this is a short term reset for the Padres, can we get Seth Lugo too? A mid rotation starter (2.8 fWAR in 26 starts, 3.57/3.83 ERA/FIP) for $7.5m/1 year solves another issue pretty cheaply. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Messing with BBTV I got to Wesneski, Ballesteros, and Hernandez for Soto.  That may not be a winning package and it depends on some level of optimism about Wesneski the SP, but I think it's in the range of what we might expect.  It adds immediate MLB pitching help, the upside plays are likely to be further from the high minors/MLB, and there's multiple players who have nonzero paths to exceeding 3 WAR.  It also doesn't touch the cream of the prospect crop for a 30 million dollar rental without defensive value.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

If this is a short term reset for the Padres, can we get Seth Lugo too? A mid rotation starter (2.8 fWAR in 26 starts, 3.57/3.83 ERA/FIP) for $7.5m/1 year solves another issue pretty cheaply. 

2024 is a player option, and given his age and lack of big contracts in his past, my guess is he's gonna opt out and try to capitalize on that 2023 to get an 8 figure deal.

[Tryptamine]

My hot take. If the Cubs intend on leaving Soto in the OF, then I think I'd rather the money be used elsewhere. If they're willing to put him at 1B/DH and fill in at LF where need be, then I'm on board. It just doesn't make sense to acquire Soto just to ship out Happ or devalue Happ by moving him just to fit in Soto. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

14 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^ My hot take is similar…I don’t see him as the obvious next best player available after Ohtani. I actually prefer Kyle Tucker among OFers and how Alonso more seamlessly fits the roster

Maybe it’s how age in a vacuum dominates player evaluation that bugs me. I see those 50% GB rates!

So people discuss Soto, who's been mentioned in plenty of articles, by actual insiders, to be available, and you shoot them down continuously out of your own beliefs that he is not actually available, and then you mention Kyle Tucker, a player who, for all intents and purposes, has been a 5 fwar player 3 years running and has two years of remaining control on a team that does well extending their own players, as a wish target. Come on, man. 

[thawv]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

One thing to be careful with is that FG is a little less generous with their FV grades than MLB.  So I think if you're doing the FV -> $ conversion I'd stick to Fangraphs or ESPN prospect rankings (since Kiley was there when that analysis was run).

That would say something like Alcantara straight up or Brown/Wicks + Caissie.

I'm using MLB grades with FG dollar amounts, so it works out better.  FG grades are very tough on players.  

[We Got The Whole 9]

36 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That’s an oversimplification. There’s a world of difference btw making a player under contract with another team - a team actively seeking a WS in recent years - Plan A and not. Soto nor Tucker, who I thought was a FA next year, are Plan A because there’s a much simpler path to *the best* player 

Already we’re at how cheap Soto should be to trade for this offseason bc control

Because there is plenty of recent precedent for it. And of all those star players that were traded in their final year of control, Soto has the highest projected salary. You know, come to think of it, I prefer Corbin Carroll any way.

 

Yes, we are all plenty aware that Ohtani is available for just money. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^ My hot take is similar…I don’t see him as the obvious next best player available after Ohtani. I actually prefer Kyle Tucker among OFers and how Alonso more seamlessly fits the roster

Maybe it’s how age in a vacuum dominates player evaluation that bugs me. I see those 50% GB rates!

As a short term guy for only 1 year or a long term guy they extend, I would take Soto without a doubt over Alonso. And the margin gets greater if there is an extension. If the Cubs could get Alonso cheap (like maybe a prospect anywhere from 7th and back, in their system) then maybe another fringe top 50 in the system fine. Go get him. If he would sign, at most, a 6 year deal then maybe extend him. But I don’t want him beyond that, and I don’t want to deal anything more than a guy at the top of the Cubs prospect list. Nor would I trade Morel for him. For Soto I would be fine with a longer extension and better prospects dealt.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^ My hot take is similar…I don’t see him as the obvious next best player available after Ohtani. I actually prefer Kyle Tucker among OFers and how Alonso more seamlessly fits the roster

Maybe it’s how age in a vacuum dominates player evaluation that bugs me. I see those 50% GB rates!

Soto has over 3300 PA with a 50% GB rate and he's hitting .284/.321/.524 with 30+ HR per full season.  Are you afraid of him having a downturn in form 6 years in where the groundballs finally come home to roost?  Or does the 150 wRC+ mean less because more of the balls are hit on the ground?

[Tryptamine]

25 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

As a short term guy for only 1 year or a long term guy they extend, I would take Soto without a doubt over Alonso. And the margin gets greater if there is an extension. If the Cubs could get Alonso cheap (like maybe a prospect anywhere from 7th and back, in their system) then maybe another fringe top 50 in the system fine. Go get him. If he would sign, at most, a 6 year deal then maybe extend him. But I don’t want him beyond that, and I don’t want to deal anything more than a guy at the top of the Cubs prospect list. Nor would I trade Morel for him. For Soto I would be fine with a longer extension and better prospects dealt.

Rumors were that Alonso was looking for a stupidly long contract, like 10 years, which is just absurd. 

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Rumors were that Alonso was looking for a stupidly long contract, like 10 years, which is just absurd. 

And why I wouldn’t want him. 

[Y2J]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

And why I wouldn’t want him. 

Is it just me or did Alonso become (soon-to-be) 29 really quick? Anything over 6 years is a ginormous pass for me.

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, Y2J said:

Is it just me or did Alonso become (soon-to-be) 29 really quick? Anything over 6 years is a ginormous pass for me.

Hypothetical: which of the following Alonso contracts would you prefer:

5 years, 100m

8 years, 125m

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Hypothetical: which of the following Alonso contracts would you prefer:

5 years, 100m

8 years, 125m

Christopher Morel, 5/40?

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Hypothetical: which of the following Alonso contracts would you prefer:

5 years, 100m

8 years, 125m

Well in the hypothetical option you posted I would rather the 8/$125m. But in reality that will never happen. Alonso would never take 3 additional years for $25m. Maybe 5/$120m or 8/$175m is closer to an actual question. And I would rather do the 5/$120m. I think he will be closer to $25m annually then $20M, unless he does get that 10 year deal, which I doubt he gets. He surely is not going to take an annual salary of less that $16M, which would be your 8 year hypothetical option. 

[CubinNY]

Soto would be a good get. There are two things working against the Cubs from the jump. 1) they gave Happ a NTC. and they seem to value his leadership skills. They seem to place an inordinate amount of value in that unmeasurable trait. 2) They will need to compete with at least one other team and probably a few other teams. in a trade scenario. That means the ante is up and up more. 
 

I don’t know if teams buy into the FV nonsense, but I’d guess they’d start with Wicks/Farris/ Brown and add Morel/Caissie/Canario and Arais/Rojas/Hernandez. That’s a lot for a guy who isn’t playing a position of need, is really expensive even for just one year, will be gone after the year is over. I mean that’s why the Nats traded him in the first place. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by CubinNY