9/3 - Cubs (Taillon) vs Reds (Spiers): 11:10am, Marquee

[UMFan83]

Other games update:

Philies beat the Brewers 4-2.  Cubs move to 3.5 of Milwaukee and stay 2.5 behind Philly

Orioles up 2-1 on Arizona.  Orioles win would increase the Cubs lead over Arizona to 3 games.

Padres up 3-0 on San Francisco.  Padres win would increase the Cubs lead over the Giants to 3 games.

Marlins swept the Nationals with a 6-4 win, keeping them 3 games behind the Cubs

Reds of course lost and are 3 games behind the Cubs.

So if the scores hold the Cubs would have a 3 game lead over 4 different teams, with the 5 teams playing for 2 playoff spots.

Of those 4 other teams, the Cubs have lost the tiebreaker to 2 of them (Cincinnati and Miami), lead the tiebreaker 2-1 over the Giants (must take 2 of 3 to clinch it this week) and haven't played the Diamondbacks yet (must go 4-3 in the 7 games to win the tiebreaker)

Edited September 3, 2023 by UMFan83

[soccer10k]

46 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

While that is true, the Reds are 21-27 since the ASB. And I have not looked it up, but my guess is the Cubs are not playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season until they meet Atlanta(who may have clinched best overall record by the time they play..)

Also we’re a better team than Cincy is.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

I mean there is damage done. Finishing off those games would have us with a 4.5 game playoff cushion, tied with the Phillies for WC1 and 2.5 games behind the Brewers and our playoff odds would be something like 97% right now but yes it could have been a lot worse. It is what it is

I think it’s no damage done. The Cubs split a series against a rival behind them. They have the two most immediate rivals behind them in the next two series.

if you’re in a playoff spot, the goal is to keep the teams behind you at a stalemate or better. The Cubs held a stalemate, that’s a win. Now do it again. 

[UMFan83]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think it’s no damage done. The Cubs split a series against a rival behind them. They gave the two most immediate rivals behind them in the next two series.

if you’re in a playoff spot, the goal is to keep the teams behind you at a stalemate or better. The Cubs held a stalemate, that’s a win. Now do it again. 

Yeah and from a macro point of view you are correct.  If the Cubs lost 7-4 and 4-1 or something the previous 2 games there would be less discussion of what could have been.  But going into the bottom of the 9th with a lead in all 4 games is what leads to wondering what we missed out on by blowing 2 of them.

 

But yes your perspective is ultimately the correct one looking at things objectively

[SOFNR]

Nice bounce back. Salvaged the split. Wildcard position still looking solid. Win the next series. 

[PackLandVA]

Win 3-game series, and splits in 2 and 4-game series is pretty realistic for most good teams. That an average of a  90-win pace in a season.

And the Cubs started 0-2-2 in their first four 4-game sets. Finished 3-0-2 in their five 4 game sets for a respectable 3-2-4. That a net gain in wins over losses.

[PackLandVA]

Incidentally, they're 1-0-2 in the three 2-game series.  Another net gain in wins over losses.

[UMFan83]

orioles up by 4 over the DBacks, pads up 4 over giants both in the 8th inning 

Assuming no comebacks, changes over the weekend:

-Gain 0.5 on Arizona

-Gain 1.5 on San Francisco

-Gain 0.5 on Philly

-Even with Cincinnati

-Lose 1.5 games on Miami

-Lose 0.5 games on Milwaukee

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by UMFan83

[Dfan25]

Mixed bag of a series 

On surface 2-2 againts Cincy is a good outcome . On the other hand the game that Leiter blew cost them the season series . If the Cubs don’t make the playoffs because of a tiebreaker with the Reds , everybody will remember that one .

Challenging week ahead with them having to face Webb / Gallen / Kelly . Hopefully Steele is on because he has 2 starts this week . Don’t know if he lines up againts Gallen or Kelly next weekend .

 

[Derwood]

There's a 4-way tie for the final Wildcard

[soccer10k]

3 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

Mixed bag of a series 

On surface 2-2 againts Cincy is a good outcome . On the other hand the game that Leiter blew cost them the season series . If the Cubs don’t make the playoffs because of a tiebreaker with the Reds , everybody will remember that one  .

 

This is where I’m at. Macro level a split is fine. But when you’re so close to a series sweep, it’s a bit disappointing to not have won 3 of 4 at least.

[gflore34]

Taillon has been terrible, thought they'd be a larger regression to the mean however, it hasn't materialized.  Still believe he's not truly as bad as he's been, may have to wait until next season to see a better version of him.  Dude has also had the worst of luck, I don't he believe he's gotten away with many, if at all, mistakes appears, every bad pitch gets obliterated.  I guess as well they should but, I saw Ashcraft and Spiers get away with several hanging sliders and change-ups, I suppose, that's baseball.

Anyone play Baseball-Reference' Immaculate Grid?  I finally filled in an immaculate grid on Saturday, so proud of myself, at the time my gird was the rarest, I used Gehrig, Ruth, Mantle and Vinny Castilla to fill some spots.  I was surprised at the rarity of Gehrig, Ruth and Mantle, I'm getting old, saw some kid wearing a Tigers Mize jersey was about to tell him that Johnny Mize never played for the Tigers.  Until I realized it was a Casey Mize maybe, he's related to Johnny Mize in some capacity?  I sucked today, cannot believe I could not get more than Konerko and Ordonez, completely missed on Sosa, first guess was horsefeathers Ed Farmer on Cubs-White Sox, he never played for the Cubs.

Edited September 4, 2023 by gflore34
Added some text

[sweetpeteman]

55 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Anyone play Baseball-Reference' Immaculate Grid? 

 

There's a thread in General Baseball Talk dedicated to it.

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, sweetpeteman said:

 

There's a thread in General Baseball Talk dedicated to it.

Thank you, I'll check it out.