Buy or sell, where do you land? Let's talk hot stove.

[CubinNY]

Way too many threads. 

[Tryptamine]

If the Cubs win tonight and become sellers while being within 4 games of both the division and wildcard then Hoyer and Ricketts can get.....

 

Profanity filter, where?

Edited July 29, 2023 by Tryptamine

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If the Cubs win tonight and become sellers while being within 4 games of both the division and wildcard then Hoyer and Ricketts can get.....

 

Profanity filter, where?

I remain on the fence.  The Cubs are super hot right now, but Im a staunch believer things are never as good as they feel when you're steaming along winning and never as bad when you're in the duldrums of a losing streak.  Even at 4 games back, this is a very flawed team with 2 of their best players leaving at seasons end.  You can sell me this is a flawed team, and that they're a 5 game bad streak from being in a very precarious position.

Where I'll be most mad is if they just tip their toe in the "buy" market and get some patchwork BP arm and a patchwork 1b who won't realistically raise the bar much.  If you're in, be in.  If you're out, I can accept it, but be out.  Don't lose Stroman for nothing and Bellinger for a QO in November except a "well, we kinda tried?" effort.

Edited July 29, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I remain on the fence.  The Cubs are super hot right now, but Im a staunch believer things are never as good as they feel when you're steaming along winning and never as bad when you're in the duldrums of a losing streak.  Even at 4 games back, this is a very flawed team with 2 of their best players leaving at seasons end.  You can sell me this is a flawed team, and that they're a 5 game bad streak from being in a very precarious position.

Where I'll be most mad is if they just tip their toe in the "buy" market and get some patchwork BP arm and a patchwork 1b who won't realistically raise the bar much.  If you're in, be in.  If you're out, I can accept it, but be out.  Don't lose Stroman for nothing and Bellinger for a QO in November except a "well, we kinda tried?" effort.

With Stroman struggling I have my doubts a Giolito package is even realistic right now. I'd rather go for it and not sweat the difference between QO and what Bellinger would get and whatever 45 Stroman probably brings back.

[UMFan83]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I remain on the fence.  The Cubs are super hot right now, but Im a staunch believer things are never as good as they feel when you're steaming along winning and never as bad when you're in the duldrums of a losing streak.  Even at 4 games back, this is a very flawed team with 2 of their best players leaving at seasons end.  You can sell me this is a flawed team, and that they're a 5 game bad streak from being in a very precarious position.

Where I'll be most mad is if they just tip their toe in the "buy" market and get some patchwork BP arm and a patchwork 1b who won't realistically raise the bar much.  If you're in, be in.  If you're out, I can accept it, but be out.  Don't lose Stroman for nothing and Bellinger for a QO in November except a "well, we kinda tried?" effort.

If you have a chance to make the playoffs selling is a terrible look especially if you are trying to lure someone like Ohtani who would be looking to move somewhere that is not stuck in the same position as the Angels have been.
 

Not ideal to lose Stroman or Bellinger for nothing and yes the Cubs are not going to win the World Series this year. Next week we might find ourselves in a much more precarious situation with a down week but if you want to be looked at as a serious franchise you don’t trade away your 2 best players when you are 3.5 games out of the playoffs. All for more 40 FV prospects?  Would the Yankees or Dodgers sell off those guys in a similar position? I doubt it. They’d add or stay put and if their FA left they’d go sign or trade for new players to replace them. 

Edited July 29, 2023 by UMFan83

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

With Stroman struggling I have my doubts a Giolito package is even realistic right now. I'd rather go for it and not sweat the difference between QO and what Bellinger would get and whatever 45 Stroman probably brings back.

Well, Stroman can't be offered a QO any longer; he used that up with the Mets.  I also think he'll be able to get what Giolito brought back, at least to the Cubs (remember, they have some funky internal evals that don't really match with the industry.  And they seem to do quite well).  I think that's an important distinction.  It's you trade Stroman now, or you get nothing back.  And I think that's a very real discussion the Cubs need to have.  Which is why I think the Cubs either need to say "You know what, we're going to win the division" and go out and make that happen (obviously without stupid things like shipping PCA for a rental), or need to say "I don't like the margins and we cannot risk things like losing Stroman for nothing with a team that just has too much margin for error" 

 

The amount of sellers is also questionable.  I think a lot of this has to hinge on the Cubs reading the market.  

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I remain on the fence.  The Cubs are super hot right now, but Im a staunch believer things are never as good as they feel when you're steaming along winning and never as bad when you're in the duldrums of a losing streak.  Even at 4 games back, this is a very flawed team with 2 of their best players leaving at seasons end.  You can sell me this is a flawed team, and that they're a 5 game bad streak from being in a very precarious position.

Where I'll be most mad is if they just tip their toe in the "buy" market and get some patchwork BP arm and a patchwork 1b who won't realistically raise the bar much.  If you're in, be in.  If you're out, I can accept it, but be out.  Don't lose Stroman for nothing and Bellinger for a QO in November except a "well, we kinda tried?" effort.

Yep. It’s unfortunate in a way that this long stretch of 3 of the worst teams in baseball (Cardinals, WS, Nats) were all in a row 13 games leading up to the deadline. It’s done nothing but give this fanbase false hope. I get it. Everybody is ready to win again. As you said though, things are nowhere near as good as they are now. A week from now when the good teams start popping back up on our schedule and the loses pile up, reality will set back in.
 

People are worried about Stroman being bad lately, but he’s the same pitcher he’s been literally his whole career. It all evens out over the course of a season. We can criticize Jed all day long, I’ll join, but what you can’t criticize is how remarkably well he’s done in trade returns for players a lot less talented than Stroman. Some of those guys are some of our top prospects right now today that we can’t wait to join the big league team. I trust Jed to get a pretty dang good return on all of our assets. He’s gained that level of trust in that aspect of his job. 
 

I’m having fun watching this team win. I jumped out of my chair fist pumping when Tauchman made that catch last night. I’m also still not fooled by who this team truly is. Which is a flawed team. Jed should sell, or really buy, and I’m not talking about CJ Cron and the Royals 8th inning reliever buy. 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

If you have a chance to make the playoffs selling is a terrible look especially if you are trying to lure someone like Ohtani who would be looking to move someone that is not stuck in the same position as the Angels have been.
 

Not ideal to lose Stroman or Bellinger for nothing and yes the Cubs are not going to win the World Series this year. Next week we might find ourselves in a much more precarious situation with a down week but if you want to be looked at as a serious franchise you don’t trade away your 2 best players when you are 3.5 games out of the playoffs. All for more 40 FV prospects?  Would the Yankees or Dodgers sell off those guys in a similar position? I doubt it. They’d add or stay put and if their FA left they’d go sign or trade for new players to replace them. 

I'll say this: I don't care whatever it looks like.  I only care what it means to the organization in totality in a baseball function.  Whatever it looks like is very subjective and rarely matters.  What looks like a white flag today could pay off in spades later.  And what looks like an effort today could end up with an 81 win finish.  There's lots of options, I don't mean these to be the only two, just that I think there's a big picture to consider.

 

You're right, I don't think the Yankees or the Dodgers would do that.  But I think it's a bit disingenuous to compare the Cubs to the Yankees and the Dodgers simply because I think both of those organizations care far more about winning than the Cubs have/do.  I think both teams would have better rosters and are far less concerned with the boogey-man luxury tax.  If the Cubs acted like the Dodgers and the Yankees, I'd agree with you.  I don't think the Cubs do that, which is why I have some pretty big hang ups as of now as to whether or not the Cubs are in a position to really make the most of losing Stroman for nothing.

 

As a fan and only as a fan, I want them to keep the two and make the playoffs.  But I think, as the word fan (derived from fanatic) implies, the fan in me may not always be the most logical of places to be coming from.

Edited July 29, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd be fine with standing pat or tepid buying. Not everything has to be a stock market simulator. Sometimes you're just a baseball team that employs baseball players to try to win baseball games.

[Tryptamine]

Following a 7 game winning streak, with the 7th win made on the catch of the year, if they decided to sell right now they'd get absolutely destroyed nation wide and the players would completely turn on this team. It's also a terrible look in free agency.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Following a 7 game winning streak, with the 7th win made on the catch of the year, if they decided to sell right now they'd get absolutely destroyed nation wide and the players would completely turn on this team. It's also a terrible look in free agency.

I mean, I don't think they'll sell tonight so no matter what, they won't have a 7 game win streak; either it's 8 or it's reset.  As it's been reported, they'll go down to the wire.  I think there's a very different space to being, 4 games back at 51-50 tonight than where they'll be on Monday, after two more games.  For example, if they lose tonight, drop to .500 and are 5 games back again, that entire first part is gone.  Maybe they win 2 more in a row and are 2 games back...well...that's very different too.  With the players...eh...they'll get over it.  Bellinger and Stroman are the free agents to be, and they're not extending regardless.  On the last part?  I don't think it'll matter; who cares what a pundit says and money fixes all in FA.  It was Hoyer who pissed and moaned deadline 2021 about Bryant/Rizzo/Baez on the radio and we managed to sign other FA's.  We had other players resign and extend.  

I'm not saying at all that the Cubs should sell at all costs either.  But I think you can make a very cogent, cold-hearted and logical argument that the Cubs could sell and while it'd suck for fans today, it could make a difference for 2024 positively.  A lot of this is going to have to come down to the Cubs ability to read the market while being realistic with themselves.  We can debate whether or not the Cubs management is capable of reading that market capably, but I think it's a pretty important to get this exactly right, and right could mean selling still.

Edited July 29, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd like to hear the cold-hearted, logical argument.

Because I'm pretty sure it's actually just a prospect fetishizing argument disguising itself as logic.

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Following a 7 game winning streak, with the 7th win made on the catch of the year, if they decided to sell right now they'd get absolutely destroyed nation wide and the players would completely turn on this team. It's also a terrible look in free agency.

I couldn’t care less what talking heads have to say about us selling. They don’t have the Cubs best interest in mind. They are just…. talking heads. 
 

What players would turn? Will they be disappointed? Sure. Dansby is the only one that has a huge financial commitment and he’s a vet. He will understand. Everybody will be disappointed, but what are they going to do… suck on purpose because they are mad and kill all their value for when they are free agents? Absolutely not. 
 

Free agents don’t care. Offer them the most money and they will come here. Dansby didn’t care that we traded Rizzo, Baez, Darvish, and Bryant when all the outside people you mentioned earlier thought the Cubs were crazy for doing. 
 

At the end of the day, this is a business. You have to do what’s best for it. You can’t worry about hurt feelings and mean words. If we make 3 trades and get 8 players back and 6 of them bust, but 2 of them work out and play a major role as we enter our next competitive window, I’d say it was more than worth it. That’s 2 young controllable assets playing a major part in sustained long term winning as opposed to hoping a praying a pretty mediocre team can sneak into the Wild Card one year. 

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I'd like to hear the cold-hearted, logical argument.

Because I'm pretty sure it's actually just a prospect fetishizing argument disguising itself as logic.

Well, the last line is pretty unfair and pretty unfounded; if you'd go back to my original point, it's that I can buy an argument for either buying or selling.  As in; if the Cubs want to keep Marcus Stroman, and if they want to keep Cody Bellinger, that they should highly consider surrounding them with a more complete team.  I'd be for the Cubs spending prospect capital on controllable players, or quality rentals (emphasis on quality).  What I don't want the Cubs to do is to say "well we kind of tried!" bring in a "raise the floor 1b" and then be done.  That's rife for the worst case outcome of threading needles.  

If you want to make a logical answer for trading Stroman and Bellinger, the answer is this just isn't a very good team.  It's a team that's flying high today, but as stated, things are never as good as they feel at the apex, and they're never as bad when you're in the valley of death.  The Cubs have had to go on a 7 game win streak to get to .500.  Yes, the RD is really nice, but I'm a little skeptical about the RD a bit; they're quite reliant on BABIP-god offense (5th best BABIP in the league while being 20th in ISO) and at some point that BABIP-luck may dry up (league BABIP is .20 points lower than the Cubs).  Pitching wise, their BP is bottom 10 in xFIP, and the Cubs are pretty top-heavy in the rotation.  Steele and Stroman are doing a ton of work.  Kyle Hendricks (3.45 era vs 4.53 xFIP) and Drew Smyly (4.57 xFIP) are pretty sketchy moving forward, and Jameson Taillon is a questionmark (his xFIP is lower than the ERA, but has a horrid habit for leaving pitches down the zone, so he's earning his HR/FB% right now.  Is that fixable)?  That's not a team that fills you with a ton of encouragement, regardless of the division.  There's major holes here.  On top of that, you're looking at a 30% chance to make the playoffs.  Is that high enough for you today to say "Well it's worth it to get nothing for Stroman if we don't make it".  Because the return there an be quite useful; it's ammo for a trade in the offseason, etc...On top of that, you've got reports that the Cubs are worrying about going over the luxury tax this summer.  That doesn't sound like what teams committed to winning say.  Lastly, the market right now is extremely foggy.  Giolito just went for a great return and I'm not sure what else is definitively out there.  Is Snell available?  Outside of him, then who?  Maybe Verlander?  If someone wants the money on the hook.  Who's buying?  And how desperate are they?  These are questions I can't answer, I'm not in those rooms, but if it's a seller's market...well the Cubs have pieces.  Really good ones.  

I don't want anyone to think I'm prospect hording.  I'm entirely pro-the-Cubs acting like the Chicago Cubs and going and winning the damn division.  But I'm also going to understand there's a flip side here, and there's an argument that can be made that trading their players now, could pay off too.  Would it suck?  Yeah, sure, for now.  I'm enjoying watching the Cubs win baseball games, it's fun.  But I'm not here to just watch the Cubs be okay-ish, either.  The Cubs need to nail this deadline, IMO, I just think it's not as clear cut as "Well our division sucks so stay the course".  Sometimes hard decisions today pay off greatly tomorrow.  I can truly say I don't know what the "right" answer is here.  Only that I can see a flip side where the hard thing today pays off.

Edited July 29, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yes. A 30% chance at the playoffs is 100% worth losing Stroman for nothing.  A 30% chance of the playoffs is a ~3% chance of winning the World Series.  You can't just write that off as a rounding error.  Seasons are finite and *that's* what you can't afford to lose for nothing.

Being top-heavy in the rotation is a good thing.

There's a third facet to the game besides batting and pitching that the Cubs have heavily prioritized and goes a long way to explaining the xFIP gap.

You can't do all that work on trying to discredit them with underlying stats and completely ignore the sequencing issues that plagued them early in the season that put them in the hole they had to climb out of.

Honestly, I don't see the THEY HAVE TO NAIL THIS DEADLINE pressure at all.  If they are a good organization consistently producing talent, then adding a couple more prospects through trades or not is not going to make or break them.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Tryptamine]

It's simple for me. There's about a .1% chance that the 45 they get for Stroman is a franchise altering pickup. I'm willing to forgo getting another Jordan Wicks if it means enjoying baseball the rest of the season and potentially sneaking into the playoffs. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

I think people underestimate just how high the leverage gets in terms of potential championships when you know for a fact you're in a tight playoff race.

Baseball results have generic values like "1 win" or "1 run" or even "1 strike" or whatever, but those are just averages.  Twenty wins after you're eliminated have zero value in terms of winning championships.  But there was a night in early November 2016 where a single out was literally the difference between 1 championship and 0, the highest leverage you can possibly imagine.

When you know for a fact that you are not easily making the playoffs or easily missing them, then marginal wins become *really* valuable. The leverage goes up a ton.  The Cubs are in that position right now. Trying to throw that away with a "well they aren't really that good, they'll just lose in the playoffs" isn't logic, it's handwaving.
 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Yes. A 30% chance at the playoffs is 100% worth losing Stroman for nothing.  A 30% chance of the playoffs is a ~3% chance of winning the World Series.  You can't just write that off as a rounding error.  Seasons are finite and *that's* what you can't afford to lose for nothing.

Being top-heavy in the rotation is a good thing.

There's a third facet to the game besides batting and pitching that the Cubs have heavily prioritized and goes a long way to explaining the xFIP gap.

You can't do all that work on trying to discredit them with underlying stats and completely ignore the sequencing issues that plagued them early in the season that put them in the hole they had to climb out of.

Honestly, I don't see the THEY HAVE TO NAIL THIS DEADLINE pressure at all.  If they are a good organization consistently producing talent, then adding a couple more prospects through trades or not is not going to make or break them.

Well, to be pedantic, using Fangraphs current playoff odds, we have a 25.8% chance at making the playoffs and a .7% chance of winning the World Series. 

 

Again, I'm not saying the Cubs have to sell, but I do think selling remains a viable option.  You are certainly allowed your opinion, and I'll just have to respectfully disagree. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

30 minutes ago, JD94 said:

At the end of the day, this is a business. You have to do what’s best for it. You can’t worry about hurt feelings and mean words. If we make 3 trades and get 8 players back and 6 of them bust, but 2 of them work out and play a major role as we enter our next competitive window, I’d say it was more than worth it. That’s 2 young controllable assets playing a major part in sustained long term winning as opposed to hoping a praying a pretty mediocre team can sneak into the Wild Card one year. 

IF those three trades end up being the difference between making the playoffs and missing them, two young controllable assets isn't actually enough value to make up for that.  Playoff spots are simply that valuable.

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It's simple for me. There's about a .1% chance that the 45 they get for Stroman is a franchise altering pickup. I'm willing to forgo getting another Jordan Wicks if it means enjoying baseball the rest of the season and potentially sneaking into the playoffs. 

I would argue that a Jordan Wicks would be pretty valuable and nothing to sneeze at.  Using 2018 value, and being fair to Wicks we'll use the FG ranking of a 50FV prospect, this would have Wicks surplus value at ~$21m.  That's assuredly low today, as inflation and with an increase in luxury tax has probably pushed that into the mid-20s (though that's just a rough estimation).  $25m surplus value isn't franchise altering, but I'd argue just making the playoffs isn't either.  The latter is certainly more fun for you and me today, I don't want to discount that, but from a Cub stand point...potentially sneaking into the playoffs probably doesn't mean anything for them outside of added profit for Ricketts if we want to be fair.  Obviously a chance at winning the World Series does matter, but in that case, I'd ask the Cubs to take that and make it precious by seriously improving the roster come August 1st.

I don't want to say that I can't understand your standpoint; I like watching good baseball too.  If given my druthers, the Cubs would make every season precious.

Edited July 29, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I remain on the fence.  The Cubs are super hot right now, but Im a staunch believer things are never as good as they feel when you're steaming along winning and never as bad when you're in the duldrums of a losing streak.  Even at 4 games back, this is a very flawed team with 2 of their best players leaving at seasons end.  You can sell me this is a flawed team, and that they're a 5 game bad streak from being in a very precarious position.

Where I'll be most mad is if they just tip their toe in the "buy" market and get some patchwork BP arm and a patchwork 1b who won't realistically raise the bar much.  If you're in, be in.  If you're out, I can accept it, but be out.  Don't lose Stroman for nothing and Bellinger for a QO in November except a "well, we kinda tried?" effort.

I am ok with improving in the margins rather then dealing higher end prospects for rentals. Now, if they wanted to trade for guys with years of control left like a Cease or Keller or a few other bats that are available, I am fine with giving up a bit more and making a bigger splash. I don’t want to see Brown, or better, go for a guy they lose in 2 months. I don’t think they should sell. IMO they need to at least try to win this year. I also think doing so helps their small chance at Ohtani. I think he wants to win. I know in the end money will talk. If if all is equal I think he leans to winning. Dumping now is not a good look. 

[Derwood]

If they keep winning, Jed will buy simply because the optics of selling while on an 8 or 9 game heater is pretty bad (realistic odds be damned)

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Derwood said:

If they keep winning, Jed will buy simply because the optics of selling while on an 8 or 9 game heater is pretty bad (realistic odds be damned)

Yeah, that's probably very true.  I agree that would likely happen.  At least, they wouldn't sell.

[JD94]

7 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

IF those three trades end up being the difference between making the playoffs and missing them, two young controllable assets isn't actually enough value to make up for that.  Playoff spots are simply that valuable.

We will just agree to disagree. If you tell me I can keep Stroman, Bellinger, and Gomes and have a 25% chance to make the playoffs this year with them, or you can trade them and get 2 guys under control for the next 7 years that are perennial 4 fWAR type players, I’m taking the 2nd option all day. Especially when I have a top 10 prospect in baseball that’s almost ready. I can just go and pay Cody Bellinger the most money to come back. I have a load of pitching prospects almost ready and a MLB ace already on the roster. And I also have plenty of money to spend in free agency. I’m hedging my bets on the next 7 years rather than my minuscule chance of sneaking into the Wild Card this year. 
 

I want winning baseball as bad as you and anybody else. I’m sick of selling and rebuilding. I also know the next 5-7 years are more important than this one year. If we were a lock to make the playoffs, but weren’t a very good team, I would agree. Don’t sell. I’m willing to give up on one year of hopes and maybes if it greatly increases my odds the next 5-7 years. I would consider 2 perennial 4 fWAR type players greatly increasing my odds for the future. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, JD94 said:

Yep. It’s unfortunate in a way that this long stretch of 3 of the worst teams in baseball (Cardinals, WS, Nats) were all in a row 13 games leading up to the deadline. It’s done nothing but give this fanbase false hope. I get it. Everybody is ready to win again. As you said though, things are nowhere near as good as they are now. A week from now when the good teams start popping back up on our schedule and the loses pile up, reality will set back in.
 

People are worried about Stroman being bad lately, but he’s the same pitcher he’s been literally his whole career. It all evens out over the course of a season. We can criticize Jed all day long, I’ll join, but what you can’t criticize is how remarkably well he’s done in trade returns for players a lot less talented than Stroman. Some of those guys are some of our top prospects right now today that we can’t wait to join the big league team. I trust Jed to get a pretty dang good return on all of our assets. He’s gained that level of trust in that aspect of his job. 
 

I’m having fun watching this team win. I jumped out of my chair fist pumping when Tauchman made that catch last night. I’m also still not fooled by who this team truly is. Which is a flawed team. Jed should sell, or really buy, and I’m not talking about CJ Cron and the Royals 8th inning reliever buy. 

I know the narrative is the cubs are beating bad teams. And overall record wise they are. But the Cardinals had won 5 straight prior to coming to Chicago. Made it 6 in a row then the cubs took the next 3. After that the cardinals went to the desert and won another series. They have been playing well. And the Sox are always going to give the cubs their best. Simple fact is, they Cubs are playing well, period. And they have handled a hit Cardinals team 5 out of 6. You can’t always just look at overall records when determine if a series should be easy or not. As an example the Reds handled the dbacks. That seems impressive until you go back and look at the dbacks last 20 games. They are terrible now. Right now beating the cardinals is more impressive than beating the dbacks.