The "Is Cody Bellinger Fixed?" Thread

[Bertz]

Cody Bellinger's rebound, or lack thereof, is probably slated to be the biggest story on the position player side in the first half this year.  We probably won't be able to say anything definitive until closer to Memorial Day, but let's look at the early evidence for each side after a handful of games

The Bad

- The topline results aren't much different from last year so far running a 79 wRC+

- Bellinger's currently sporting Madrigal-ian exit velocities, averaging 86 and topping out at 102

The Good

- The walk and K numbers are basically back where we'd hope they would be at 11.5% and 19.2% respectively.  This is backed underneath the hood by lower chase rates and higher contact rates

- There’s likely some early bad BABIP luck.  His xwOBA paints the picture of something more like a 95 wRC+

- Bellinger is hitting everything in the air (22.2% GB rate!), but not popping the ball up at all

The Interesting 

- Bellinger is currently 0-fer against lefties, but has a 103 wRC+ and a 14.5% K-rate against righties

 

IMO there's been much more good than bad so far.  I assume Cody was given some heavy assurances of everyday playing time, and that's fine, but I'd like to get one of the RHH outfielders up from Iowa to spell him against certain lefties sooner rather than later.  

[PackLandVA]

I know it’s not his true position/first position, but Morel has started 50 games in CF in the Bigs just last year and played in a total of 57. I’m not that verse in defensive metrics (other than the basic Fld%) but I don’t know that he’s a liability out there.

I know Ross mentioned that Morel needs to play/bat everyday, so bringing him up as a bench player is not an option.  But he plays enough positions that between DH and subbing a player or two each week, seems like he could get the ABs in the future.

[Rex Buckingham]

Is Nelly Velazquez good enough against lefties and good enough in CF to use to spell Bellinger?  I know he's supposed to be pretty good for a corner OF, just not sure how he plays in CF... tuned out too much last year to notice

[Derwood]

All I’m seeing is a lot of golf swings resulting in pop ups. Loopiest swing I’ve seen in years. 

[jersey cubs fan]

I don’t know if he’s fixed or not but with his limp bat you probably don’t have to worry about him knocking anybody up regardless 

[javy knows my name]

19 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I don’t know if he’s fixed or not but with his limp bat you probably don’t have to worry about him knocking anybody up regardless 

He's hittin blanks

[CubinNY]

He's overstriding and dipping his back shoulder. He doesn't do it every swing or even every AB, but when he does, he's popping up. They have to see it too. I mean I'm not an expert and even I can see it. It looks like a bad habit and not a fatal flaw if they can get some consistency. 

[Bertz]

Plate discipline/contact changes tend to be meaningful much faster than contact quality ones.  So while Bellinger's had a bad start I think there's been more encouraging than discouraging thus far.

 

[David]

Heard from good sources that he just hit a ball harder than he had since 2020

[Derwood]

Regardless of how Bellinger's season turns out, I'm REALLY happy to have Cody for one year instead of Bryant for six years

[Duke Silver]

I'll do him a solid and refrain from comment.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Apparently the answer is yes

[Brock Beauchamp]

I thought "Maybe StatCast has the answers! Off to Baseball Savant I go!"

Narrator: "StatCast did not, in fact, have the answers, and Brock left more confused than he entered."

[Rob]

It's literally just the strikeouts.

He cut his K% in half. He's not hitting the ball any better (potentially worse), but a lot more are getting a chance to fall in as hits.

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Rob said:

It's literally just the strikeouts.

He cut his K% in half. He's not hitting the ball any better (potentially worse), but a lot more are getting a chance to fall in as hits.

Yeah what we've seen thus far is the vastly improved BB/K numbers and some help from the shift ban.  Those two things are probably enough to keep his wRC+ in the 110 range. 

He has to hit the ball harder to get all the way back though.  But power is the streakiest aspect of a hitter's skillet so nothing says more of the juice in his bat can't also reappear as well.  

[David]

Purely speculative, but seems like quality of contact would naturally lag a bit while approach adjustments are kind of in the process of being made/settling in.

[fromthestretch]

43 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah what we've seen thus far is the vastly improved BB/K numbers and some help from the shift ban.  Those two things are probably enough to keep his wRC+ in the 110 range. 

He has to hit the ball harder to get all the way back though.  But power is the streakiest aspect of a hitter's skillet so nothing says more of the juice in his bat can't also reappear as well.  

We've seen a bit of it, it just hasn't been consistent yet. That homer he hit in LA gives me hope that he can get that power going again. Until he does, I'm not going to complain about him using a little luck to keep his numbers up for now. 

[imb]

2 hours ago, David said:

Purely speculative, but seems like quality of contact would naturally lag a bit while approach adjustments are kind of in the process of being made/settling in.

plus it hasn't gotten warm yet, which should affect his weed intake as he'll be outside more. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, Rob said:

It's literally just the strikeouts.

He cut his K% in half. He's not hitting the ball any better (potentially worse), but a lot more are getting a chance to fall in as hits.

I get that and that's the obvious difference but stuff like the xwOBA still seems extreme even if you balance out the reduction in Ks but also the reduction in exit velo. Those two should cancel each other out, at least somewhat. And then you're still left with an xwOBA much higher than last season.

Still confused.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Patrick Dubuque with a free article on Bellinger's reinvention: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/82076/cold-takes-the-toll-taken-on-cody-bellinger/

 

TL;DR he has made some mechanical adjustments to try to square the ball more when he pulls it(which is essentially all the time), and is trading some power(EV/launch angle) to do so, while still doing damage on mistakes.  The shift restrictions make this much more viable than it would have previously.

[Tim]

27 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Patrick Dubuque with a free article on Bellinger's reinvention: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/82076/cold-takes-the-toll-taken-on-cody-bellinger/

 

TL;DR he has made some mechanical adjustments to try to square the ball more when he pulls it(which is essentially all the time), and is trading some power(EV/launch angle) to do so, while still doing damage on mistakes.  The shift restrictions make this much more viable than it would have previously.

So...essentially trading max EV for median EV?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Tim said:

So...essentially trading max EV for median EV?

In a way, the increase in contact makes the analogy a little imperfect because you now have more batted balls(and their EVs) as a result, so from a strictly EV perspective you have two linked factors(not selling out for max EV, increase in contact/batted balls at lower EVs) moving your average and median.

[David]

He hit that 420' tonight lmao

[CubinNY]

19 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

In a way, the increase in contact makes the analogy a little imperfect because you now have more batted balls(and their EVs) as a result, so from a strictly EV perspective you have two linked factors(not selling out for max EV, increase in contact/batted balls at lower EVs) moving your average and median.

It's a more controlled swing and more repeatable.

[Tryptamine]

Probably not realistic, but if he's doing this through the end of May, I'd kind of like the Cubs take take a chance and throw a 3 or 4 year extension at him.