The "Is Cody Bellinger Fixed?" Thread

[Irrelevant Dude]

Looking at the bright side of this Cubs team returning to mediocrity, Cody Bellinger looks like he could bring a significant return in a deadline deal.  If he continues to play as well as he has, he is as good or a better hitter than any of the Cubs "Big 3" were in 2021, and a plus defender at a premium position.  Is it possible he might actually net the Cubs a real top ranked prospect?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

20 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Is it possible he might actually net the Cubs a real top ranked prospect?

I'll say no for 3 reasons.

• The Cubs aren't going to play at a 95 win pace, but a frustrating weekend series doesn't change that they've played well, and are unlikely to be out of contention by the deadline
• The market for trade deadline rentals has collapsed in the last couple years as teams hoard prospects, and Bellinger's up and down struggles give an easy out for teams to pursue another option instead of trading a big prospect.
• Bellinger is eligible to get a qualifying offer, so even if either of those 2 above isn't entirely true, the front office can hedge their bets in keeping him knowing they'll get something valuable if he leaves in free agency.  And they may not want him to leave, so giving all other pursuers the handicap of the QO(on top of being the recipient as a consolation prize) could be further long term motivation.

[Derwood]

4. If he is still playing at an All-Star level in July, the Cubs might offer him an extension rather than trade him

[Irrelevant Dude]

I think an extension is extremely unlikely.  Having all 3 outfielders locked up to multi-year deals doesn't leave much room for any of the minor leaguers. Nothing is a sure thing with any of the Cubs prospects, but blocking off the entire outfield for the long term would seem to go against the team's whole philosophy of building around cheap, cost-controlled talent. Prior to the Happ extension, resigning Bellinger could have been more realistic, but that was likely an either/or situation.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

16 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I think an extension is extremely unlikely.  Having all 3 outfielders locked up to multi-year deals doesn't leave much room for any of the minor leaguers. Nothing is a sure thing with any of the Cubs prospects, but blocking off the entire outfield for the long term would seem to go against the team's whole philosophy of building around cheap, cost-controlled talent. Prior to the Happ extension, resigning Bellinger could have been more realistic, but that was likely an either/or situation.

Devil's avocado: Bellinger may be the best position player free agent to hit the market between now and the end of Happ/Suzuki's deals, and they don't have a long term contract or entrenched 1B or DH that means they would still have flexibility.  It would be a little awkward a fit because of how many upper minors prospects are OF, but we've seen from other teams these things tend to sort themselves out without becoming a crisis.

[Bertz]

Yeah if Bellinger's back to hitting like a 1st division starter at 1B, it's pretty easy to lock him up because he could always slide back into the infield in the event you have too many good outfielders.  You're probably limiting yourself to only rostering one of Davis/Nelly/Canario and only one of Mervis/Caissie, but there's a great chance attrition will force that hand anyway.

[Rex Buckingham]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Yeah if Bellinger's back to hitting like a 1st division starter at 1B, it's pretty easy to lock him up because he could always slide back into the infield in the event you have too many good outfielders.  You're probably limiting yourself to only rostering one of Davis/Nelly/Canario and only one of Mervis/Caissie, but there's a great chance attrition will force that hand anyway.

and if all 5 of those guys are somehow legit big leaguers, you've got some good trade chips

[Tryptamine]

I'm definitely not turning down a Bellinger extension just because there's prospects behind him. We're talking a former MVP who is playing at MVP pace again this year and is only 27. Right now he's playing at 8.9 fWAR/162 pace. It's not like PCA or Davis are going to waste. They can be used as chips elsewhere.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm definitely not turning down a Bellinger extension just because there's prospects behind him. We're talking a former MVP who is playing at MVP pace again this year and is only 27. Right now he's playing at 8.9 fWAR/162 pace. It's not like PCA or Davis are going to waste. They can be used as chips elsewhere.

There's no such thing as too many shortstops or too many center fielders on a baseball roster.