Cubs sign Jameson Taillon 4/68

[mias_tisg]

[17 Seconds]

fine with it as the 3rd or 4th best move of the offseason

[Tim]

Now get Senga, a shortstop and a catcher

[David]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

 

Ah, another solid starter for the collection. Taillon was the model of consistency with the Yankees. He struck out his fair share of batters, didn’t walk many, and reliably went five innings. By using his four-seamer more, he’s completely changed his profile; ignore his numbers in Pittsburgh, because he was a completely different pitcher then.

 

That four-seamer and a new cutter augment what he’s always done well: spin the ball. His slider and curve are both excellent, and the slider is particularly nasty against opposing righties. Yankee Stadium’s cozy dimensions may even have been holding him back; he’s squarely a fly ball pitcher now, and opposing teams packed their lineup with lefties against him, a bad combination in the Bronx. Moving to a park with spacious dimensions would likely suit him well.

 

That’s a lot of praise, but I still think he’ll sign a cookie-cutter contract because the raw results haven’t been overpowering even with his new pitch mix. It sure feels to me like there could be more in the tank, but “could be more in the tank” is the kind of description that gets you a short deal with a good team. I think Taillon will do a bit better than that, but for the most part, I just wish he’d left the Pirates and figured out his repertoire a few years sooner.

 

Player Notes

Taillon might not end up being a high priority for teams as free agency unfolds, but that doesn’t mean he won’t end up being one of the better lower-profile signings. When fully healthy, the soon-to-turn-31-year-old right-hander has been a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The second overall pick in the 2010 draft went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018, and this past season he went 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA with the New York Yankees. He battled testicular cancer in 2017, and has twice undergone Tommy John surgery, first in ‘14 and again in ‘19.

 

When he was interviewed here at FanGraphs this past August, Taillon spoke of how he is foundationally the same pitcher he’s always been, but has cleaned up his mechanics, improved some of his pitch profiles, and tweaked his usage. No longer just a hard-thrower with a plus curveball, he’s now more of a tactician, albeit one who has largely retained his younger-self velocity. Attacking the zone is a big part of his M.O. Taillon has averaged just 2.2 walks per nine innings over the course of his career, and this year that number was an exemplary 1.6. The quietly effective righty throws strikes. – DL

[d_money]

Having TJ twice already in 14 and 19. My pessimism goes to the thought…has anyone had it 3 times and come back to pitch effectively?

[Bertz]

Taillon is interesting. Good spin and command guy, which is a profile the Cubs have had success with. And unlike a lot of those guys Taillon actually has an above average fastball.

 

What gives me pause is that the Yankees weren't able to bump him to the next level, and these dollars sort of imply a bit more production than he's generated the last two years. The Yankees are not the Dodgers/Guardians/Rays so that's not to say it's impossible there's more in the tanj, but the Yankees are one of the smart teams.

 

Finances are interesting too. A lot more than you'd have expected for the "other" SP. Is that because he's the top guy, because the top guy will come via trade, or because indeed they're not beholden to the luxury tax?

[ChiCubsFan]

I may hate or like this depending on what other moves follow.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Taillon is interesting. Good spin and command guy, which is a profile the Cubs have had success with. And unlike a lot of those guys Taillon actually has an above average fastball.

 

What gives me pause is that the Yankees weren't able to bump him to the next level, and these dollars sort of imply a bit more production than he's generated the last two years. The Yankees are not the Dodgers/Guardians/Rays so that's not to say it's impossible there's more in the tanj, but the Yankees are one of the smart teams.

 

Finances are interesting too. A lot more than you'd have expected for the "other" SP. Is that because he's the top guy, because the top guy will come via trade, or because indeed they're not beholden to the luxury tax?

 

Yeah I think this is a fair summary. I'm encouraged by the reporting that the Cubs were after him specifically from the start of free agency, so it seems clear there's something they they think they can get out of him. I like the velocity and at a simple level the profile is one that wouldn't be shocking if they could get another level from, and the early returns on Wesneski at least give a little hope that the Yankees aren't infallible developers of pitchers.

 

The last point is what my main takeaway from this deal was. After today it seems very likely that one of these things will be true: 1) they don't get a SS 2) they go over the luxury tax 3) one of the non-SS holes they need to fill(C, 1B/DH, SP) will be filled by a player with minimal salary(not necessarily worse, could be a trade). It's not impossible there's an outcome where it all fits in, but unless they want to not extend Nico they'd need one of those things to happen to have any midseason breathing room/margin for error for my simple calcs to be off by a couple mil.

[BigbadB]

I may hate or like this depending on what other moves follow.

 

It's possible that the Bellinger and Taillon signings this soon are to help intrigue Senga, who wants to go to a team that wants to win right now. Those two moves probably don't move the needle that much, but the SS talk along with those moves could certainly help.

[Cubswin11]

94 (FGs has it for both 4s and sinker), multiple breaking pitches, and a 90+ cutter with lots of strikes is a big upgrade for this staff so there’s that…It really only hit me last night that Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski were the nominal 2-3 starters (I would not care if either is on the team next year)

Steele put up more WAR than Taillon last year in ~60 fewer innings and had a lot of good indicators (pretty sure one of his pitches rated close to best in the game). He absolutely belongs in the rotation. Wesneski has a lot to like too, I’d prefer he starts in the pen/swing man but there’s more upside there. They’re not throw away guys by not caring if they’re on the team next year, if they aren’t it means we traded for something good.

[Sammy Sofa]

I may hate or like this depending on what other moves follow.

 

It's possible that the Bellinger and Taillon signings this soon are to help intrigue Senga, who wants to go to a team that wants to win right now.

 

Are they lying to him about who they signed?

[Andy]

Having TJ twice already in 14 and 19. My pessimism goes to the thought…has anyone had it 3 times and come back to pitch effectively?

I think if Taillon ends up having TJS during this contract it's a disaster regardless of what happens after.

 

Ruling out that worst-case scenario, this seems like a perfectly cromulent signing. Taillon is solid and should continue to be solid.

[Tryptamine]

A solid, but not spectacular move, I feel better about it given the financial terms, I was scared I'd see something like 4/80 or 5/95 in this market.

[Sammy Sofa]

I too am fearful of these billionaires spending some of their billions for reasons I can't fully explain.

[Tryptamine]

I too am fearful of these billionaires spending some of their billions for reasons I can't fully explain.

 

Fearful no, but the reality is that they likely aren't going over the soft cap so spending less on Taillon means they can buy more given that restriction. I'm sure the Ricketts could have a 300M payroll and turn a profit, but that's not reality.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Having TJ twice already in 14 and 19. My pessimism goes to the thought…has anyone had it 3 times and come back to pitch effectively?

I believe it’s 3 strikes and you’re out at the old ball game

[Rob]

Having TJ twice already in 14 and 19. My pessimism goes to the thought…has anyone had it 3 times and come back to pitch effectively?

 

I thought Chad Fox and Scott Williamson had, but apparently those were other procedures... Likewise, Jason Isringhausen and Jose Rijo were able to eke out a couple replacement level years, but there's some debate as to whether all those surgeries were correctly categorized as Tommy Johns.

 

Josh Johnson made it as far as a comeback attempt and a minor league deal, but no further.

 

If you're looking for the best case scenario, Jonny Venters was briefly effective after a third confirmed Tommy John.

[UMFan83]

So if the season started today would the projected rotation be something like Stroman, Tallion, Steele, Hendricks, Wesneski with Sampson and Assad being swingman?

[Tryptamine]

So if the season started today would the projected rotation be something like Stroman, Tallion, Steele, Hendricks, Wesneski with Sampson and Assad being swingman?

 

Keegan Thompson?

[Tim]

So if the season started today would the projected rotation be something like Stroman, Tallion, Steele, Hendricks, Wesneski with Sampson and Assad being swingman?

Assad would be in the minors. Sampson would probably be in the minors. Thompson would be the "swinger". Adbert would be a short inning guy as-is, but will probably be a multi-inning guy once they add veteran relievers.

[Bertz]

So if the season started today would the projected rotation be something like Stroman, Tallion, Steele, Hendricks, Wesneski with Sampson and Assad being swingman?

Assad would be in the minors. Sampson would probably be in the minors. Thompson would be the "swinger". Adbert would be a short inning guy as-is, but will probably be a multi-inning guy once they add veteran relievers.

 

Yeah I think this is right. Sampson and Assad at Iowa, Alzolay and Thompson in the pen. Thompson will be a true long guy for like 3-4 inning stints, while Alzolay is more like a 2ish inning guy.

 

After they sign the other starter and push Wesneski to Iowa as well, it'll be truly enviable depth. The bullpen depth isn't far behind either.

[UMFan83]

So if the season started today would the projected rotation be something like Stroman, Tallion, Steele, Hendricks, Wesneski with Sampson and Assad being swingman?

Assad would be in the minors. Sampson would probably be in the minors. Thompson would be the "swinger". Adbert would be a short inning guy as-is, but will probably be a multi-inning guy once they add veteran relievers.

 

Yeah I think this is right. Sampson and Assad at Iowa, Alzolay and Thompson in the pen. Thompson will be a true long guy for like 3-4 inning stints, while Alzolay is more like a 2ish inning guy.

 

After they sign the other starter and push Wesneski to Iowa as well, it'll be truly enviable depth. The bullpen depth isn't far behind either.

 

Yeah I did mean to add Keegan as one of the swingmen but it seems like the Cubs like him more out of the pen as a 2-3 inning guy

[Tim]

Assad would be in the minors. Sampson would probably be in the minors. Thompson would be the "swinger". Adbert would be a short inning guy as-is, but will probably be a multi-inning guy once they add veteran relievers.

 

Yeah I think this is right. Sampson and Assad at Iowa, Alzolay and Thompson in the pen. Thompson will be a true long guy for like 3-4 inning stints, while Alzolay is more like a 2ish inning guy.

 

After they sign the other starter and push Wesneski to Iowa as well, it'll be truly enviable depth. The bullpen depth isn't far behind either.

 

Yeah I did mean to add Keegan as one of the swingmen but it seems like the Cubs like him more out of the pen as a 2-3 inning guy

Well, that's what a swingman does when he's not needed for spot starts.

[imb]

I too am fearful of these billionaires spending some of their billions for reasons I can't fully explain.

 

i can explain it! because you can't spend what the owners won't give you, and the owners have a set amount they are willing to give you. hope that clears it up!

[Bertz]

 

I'm curious to see if this ends up being a thing. The Cubs paid a premium to sign Taillon despite generally letting the market come to them this winter. So hopefully this is very intentional.

 

We also talked about around here early in the offseason that Tommy Hottovy has shown he can fairly reliably wring $10M production out of $5M signings. A bunch of those are fine for a rebuilding team, but to really switch gears and compete you need to next level someone who's already pretty good and make them great. If Taillon magically added a couple points to his K-rate without losing anything else, suddenly he's a guy in the neighborhood of Joe Musgrove and the Cubs' rotation looks drastically different.