College Football - Week 8 (Oct. 22)

[Andy]

Top 25 games

------------------------------

Iowa at (2) Ohio State (12 pm, FOX)

UT Martin at (3) Tennessee (12 pm, SEC Network)

(14) Syracuse at (5) Clemson (12 pm, ABC)

(24) Mississippi State at (6) Alabama (7 pm, ESPN)

(7) Ole Miss at LSU (3:30 pm, CBS)

(17) Kansas State at (8) TCU (8 pm, FS1)

(9) UCLA at (10) Oregon (3:30 pm, FOX)

(20) Texas at (11) Oklahoma State (3:30 pm, ABC)

Boston College at (13) Wake Forest (3:30 pm, ACC Network)

Minnesota at (16) Penn State (7:30 pm, ABC)

(21) Cincinnati at SMU (12 pm, ESPN)

Memphis at (25) Tulane (3:30 pm, ESPN2)

 

Other nationally available games

---------------------------------------------------

Wednesday

Georgia State at Appalachian State (7:30 pm, ESPN2)

 

Thursday

Virginia at Georgia Tech (7:30 pm, ESPN)

Troy at South Alabama (7:30 pm, ESPNU)

 

Friday

Tulsa at Temple (7:30 pm, ESPN2)

UAB at Western Kentucky (8 pm, CBSSN)

 

Saturday TV

Kansas at Baylor (12 pm, ESPN2)

Indiana at Rutgers (12 pm, BTN)

Houston at Navy (12 pm, ESPNU)

UL Monroe at Army (12 pm, CBSSN)

Duke at Miami (12:30 pm, RSN/ESPN3)

West Virginia at Texas Tech (3 pm, FS1)

Purdue at Wisconsin (3:30 pm, ESPN)

Northwestern at Maryland (3:30 pm, BTN)

BYU at Liberty (3:30 pm, ESPNU)

Western Michigan at Miami (OH) (3:30 pm, CBSSN)

Vanderbilt at Missouri (4 pm, SEC Network)

Arizona State at Stanford (4 pm, Pac-12 Network)

Fresno State at New Mexico (6:30 pm, FS2)

Boise State at Air Force (7 pm, CBSSN)

UCF at East Carolina (7:30 pm, ESPNU)

Texas A&M at South Carolina (7:30 pm, SEC Network)

Pittsburgh at Louisville (8 pm, ACC Network)

Colorado at Oregon State (8 pm, Pac-12 Network)

Utah State at Wyoming (9:45 pm, FS2)

Washington at California (10:30 pm, ESPN)

San Diego State at Nevada (10:30 pm, CBSSN)

 

Saturday Streaming

Akron at Kent State (12 pm, ESPN+)

Bowling Green at Central Michigan (1 pm, ESPN3)

Toledo at Buffalo (12 pm, ESPN+)

Eastern Michigan at Ball State (2 pm, ESPN+)

Northern Illinois at Ohio (2 pm, ESPN+)

UNLV at Notre Dame (2:30 pm, Peacock)

Rice at Louisiana Tech (3 pm, ESPN+)

Florida International at Charlotte (3:30 pm, ESPN3)

North Texas at UTSA (3:30 pm, Stadium)

Georgia Southern at Old Dominion (3:30 pm, ESPN+)

Marshall at James Madison (3:30 pm, ESPN+)

Florida Atlantic at UTEP (4 pm, ESPN+)

Arkansas State at UL Lafayette (5 pm, ESPN+)

Southern Miss at Texas State (5 pm, ESPN+)

Edited October 16, 2022 by Andy

[NOLA]

[Derwood]

The home loss to Minnesota followed by the ass kicking by OSU is going to be so Penn State

[Ding Dong Johnson]

#2 is going down!

[CubinNY]

At least one of Alabama, Clemson, or Mississippi will lose this week.

 

Also, pretty clearly the two best teams right now are Georgia and OSU and there is a large gap between them and the rest.

[Old Style]

At least one of Alabama, Clemson, or Mississippi will lose this week.

 

Also, pretty clearly the two best teams right now are Georgia and OSU and there is a large gap between them and the rest.

There’s a large gap between those two and Tennessee?

[champaignchris]

I have to admit that I'm unfamiliar with Illinois having a bye and wishing that they had a game to play. Usually at this time of year, I'm thankful for a bye because I won't be tempted to waste 3 1/2 hours watching a desolate football program get its brains mashed in by a mid-tier Big 10 team.

 

5 games left and a bowl and the only result going forward that won't be considered a resounding success would be to lose out. They beat NW and lose all the rest of their games plus the bowl, and this season still exceeds expectations with the most wins in a season in over a decade.

 

As it is, the most likely scenario going forward looks like taking 2 of 3 from @Nebraska, MSU and Purdue, losing soundly to Meat-Chicken, and then beating the worst NW team since the 80s. Finish 9-3, probably lose out to Purdue on the tiebreakers for the West division champ. Go to the Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte to play someone like Syracuse, with a solid chance of winning the bowl game and finishing somewhere around #12 in the AP.

[NewUserName]

At least one of Alabama, Clemson, or Mississippi will lose this week.

 

Also, pretty clearly the two best teams right now are Georgia and OSU and there is a large gap between them and the rest.

There’s a large gap between those two and Tennessee?

 

I am not convinced either Georgia or OSU are on a much higher level. But Tennessee did give up 49 points. Personally I am not sold on them being the 3rd best team. To be honest, they only beat Alabama at home because of a missed FG

[Old Style]

At least one of Alabama, Clemson, or Mississippi will lose this week.

 

Also, pretty clearly the two best teams right now are Georgia and OSU and there is a large gap between them and the rest.

There’s a large gap between those two and Tennessee?

 

I am not convinced either Georgia or OSU are on a much higher level. But Tennessee did give up 49 points. Personally I am not sold on them being the 3rd best team. To be honest, they only beat Alabama at home because of a missed FG

Are we going to play that game now? Georgia barely beat Missouri and struggled against Kent State. Alabama is a damn good football team and Tennessee beat them. Period. Sure they gave up a lot of points but they also scored a [expletive] against the Tide.

[gflore34]

I have to admit that I'm unfamiliar with Illinois having a bye and wishing that they had a game to play. Usually at this time of year, I'm thankful for a bye because I won't be tempted to waste 3 1/2 hours watching a desolate football program get its brains mashed in by a mid-tier Big 10 team.

 

5 games left and a bowl and the only result going forward that won't be considered a resounding success would be to lose out. They beat NW and lose all the rest of their games plus the bowl, and this season still exceeds expectations with the most wins in a season in over a decade.

 

As it is, the most likely scenario going forward looks like taking 2 of 3 from @Nebraska, MSU and Purdue, losing soundly to Meat-Chicken, and then beating the worst NW team since the 80s. Finish 9-3, probably lose out to Purdue on the tiebreakers for the West division champ. Go to the Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte to play someone like Syracuse, with a solid chance of winning the bowl game and finishing somewhere around #12 in the AP.

 

I'll take that, really, given our expectations of Illinois' football it's been phenomenal, did not think much of DeVito but, he's actually a competent QB. I expected an improved D of course, not to this extent, and a good running game. The surprising aspect has been the play of DeVito and the WR's nobody, talks about Williams, Bryant and Hightower, watching them the first game of season I came away with who the hell are those guys and where the hell did they come from? Still, it wouldn't shock me one bit if the Illini are dogs on the road at Nebraska. Heck, they were nearly an opening 8 point dog, at home, to a team they were clearly superior to in Minnesota.

[soccer10k]

There’s a large gap between those two and Tennessee?

 

I am not convinced either Georgia or OSU are on a much higher level. But Tennessee did give up 49 points. Personally I am not sold on them being the 3rd best team. To be honest, they only beat Alabama at home because of a missed FG

Are we going to play that game now? Georgia barely beat Missouri and struggled against Kent State. Alabama is a damn good football team and Tennessee beat them. Period. Sure they gave up a lot of points but they also scored a [expletive] against the Tide.

 

The good news is on Nov 5 we’re going to get to find out if Tennessee can hang with Georgia!

[CubinNY]

At least one of Alabama, Clemson, or Mississippi will lose this week.

 

Also, pretty clearly the two best teams right now are Georgia and OSU and there is a large gap between them and the rest.

There’s a large gap between those two and Tennessee?

Yes, I think Alabama is down this year. Saban is losing his touch (?) (I don't know the right words). They've been sloppy and not well-disciplined all year.

 

RE: Tennessee v. Georgia, we will find out on Nov. 5.

[NOLA]

At least one of Alabama, Clemson, or Mississippi will lose this week.

 

Also, pretty clearly the two best teams right now are Georgia and OSU and there is a large gap between them and the rest.

There’s a large gap between those two and Tennessee?

Yes, I think Alabama is down this year. Saban is losing his touch (?) (I don't know the right words). They've been sloppy and not well-disciplined all year.

 

RE: Tennessee v. Georgia, we will find out on Nov. 5.

Really think Tennessee is right there with Georgia. I haven’t seen enough of OSU to speak on them.

[pitchcs]

At least one of Alabama, Clemson, or Mississippi will lose this week.

 

Also, pretty clearly the two best teams right now are Georgia and OSU and there is a large gap between them and the rest.

 

Syracuse is unquestionably the most overrated team in the country, so I'll say no chance they beat Clemson.

[SouthSideRyan]

I have to admit that I'm unfamiliar with Illinois having a bye and wishing that they had a game to play. Usually at this time of year, I'm thankful for a bye because I won't be tempted to waste 3 1/2 hours watching a desolate football program get its brains mashed in by a mid-tier Big 10 team.

 

5 games left and a bowl and the only result going forward that won't be considered a resounding success would be to lose out. They beat NW and lose all the rest of their games plus the bowl, and this season still exceeds expectations with the most wins in a season in over a decade.

 

As it is, the most likely scenario going forward looks like taking 2 of 3 from @Nebraska, MSU and Purdue, losing soundly to Meat-Chicken, and then beating the worst NW team since the 80s. Finish 9-3, probably lose out to Purdue on the tiebreakers for the West division champ. Go to the Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte to play someone like Syracuse, with a solid chance of winning the bowl game and finishing somewhere around #12 in the AP.

 

I’m fine with the bye because Chase Brown had 900 touches last game and McCray could use one more week. Wisconsin and Penn State wins this weekend would be huge, leaving the game against Purdue as an essential play-in game

[SouthSideRyan]

Also I’ll be disappointed with 8-4 at this point, pissed with 7-5.

[bukie]

Based on 2nd order winning percentage (taken from Bill Connoly's post-game win expectancy : here

), here are the top 10 most dominant teams (not adjusted for schedule):

 

    Team          Games   SO Wins   SO Pct
1.  Ohio State        6       6.0     100%
2.  Georgia           7       6.9      99%
3.  Michigan          7       6.8      97%
4.  UCLA              6       5.7      95%
5.  Tennessee         6       5.6      93%
6.  James Madison     6       5.5      92%
7.  TCU               6       5.4      90%
8.  Illinois          7       6.3      90%
9.  Ole Miss          7       6.3      90%
10. Texas             7       6.2      89%

 

Looks like Ohio State/Georgia are clearly a step above, and Michigan/UCLA are there just ahead of Tennessee (Alabama is 14th here). Granted, not all schedules are created equal (see: James Madison, dominant but against minnows). If we normalize it by schedule strength (calculated using Sagarin's numbers), we get a top 10 that looks like this:

 

    Team          SO% +SOS
1.  Ohio State       0.899
2.  Tennessee        0.869
3.  Georgia          0.857
4.  Texas            0.845
5.  Michigan         0.811
6.  TCU              0.809
7.  Illinois         0.789
8.  Alabama          0.777
9.  Oregon           0.765
10. UCLA             0.760

 

Which to me, looks a lot closer to a realistic measure of how dominant each team has been this season. OSU has looked dominant across the board this season, Tennessee and Georgia have looked dominant except on rare occasion, Texas has looked great but lost a couple close tossups that they'd win more often than not, Michigan had effectively a 15 minute chunk against Iowa that was suspect, but against a weaker overall schedule than the other top 5 teams, TCU won a couple of toss up games the past two weeks, Illinois won what was effectively a 60/40 game against Iowa and lost what was effectively an 80/20 game against Indiana, and Alabama has looked sketchy effectively 3 out of 7 weeks against what has been a tough overall schedule. (In this exercise, Clemson came up 14th, Ole Miss 11th)

[bukie]

Also I’ll be disappointed with 8-4 at this point, pissed with 7-5.

What about 9-3, losses to Purdue and @Michigan, and don't end up winning the BTW because they laid an egg at IU?

[NewUserName]

There’s a large gap between those two and Tennessee?

 

I am not convinced either Georgia or OSU are on a much higher level. But Tennessee did give up 49 points. Personally I am not sold on them being the 3rd best team. To be honest, they only beat Alabama at home because of a missed FG

Are we going to play that game now? Georgia barely beat Missouri and struggled against Kent State. Alabama is a damn good football team and Tennessee beat them. Period. Sure they gave up a lot of points but they also scored a [expletive] against the Tide.

 

My point is I am not sure Tenn is better than Alabama, the results would suggest not by much if any. And I did say I wasn't convinced that Georgia and OSU are on a higher level either. Tenn is good, no doubt. I just am not sure they are better then anyone currently ranked 3-7

[SouthSideRyan]

Also I’ll be disappointed with 8-4 at this point, pissed with 7-5.

What about 9-3, losses to Purdue and @Michigan, and don't end up winning the BTW because they laid an egg at IU?

 

Frustrated, but I can't be mad at losing those 2 in a vacuum.

[bukie]

Current NCAA playoff odds, according to 538 (combination of FPI and ELO): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-college-football-predictions/

 

Here are the teams that still have a real chance of making the playoff if they win out (more than 50% chance:

 

1- Georgia (100% if they win out)

2- Ohio State (100%)

3- Clemson (100%)

4- Michigan (100%)

5- Tennessee (100%)

6- TCU (100%)

7- Ole Miss (100%)

8- Alabama (99%)

9- Illinois (98%)

10- Syracuse (97%)

11- Kansas State (97%)

12- UCLA (95%)

13- Ok State (94%)

14- LSU (84%)

15- Texas (70%)

16- Oregon (69%)

17- UNC (69%)

18- Purdue (63%)

19- USC (58%)

20- Mississippi State (53%)

 

So that makes effectively 20 teams at the halfway point that control their own destiny to win the national championship. Of course, some paths are more realistic than others to go undefeated (nearly 70% of all playoff outcomes are some assortment of Georgia-Ohio State-Clemson-Michigan-Tennessee-Alabama). In addition to these 20, Utah, PSU and Wake Forest have realistic paths to the playoffs but need help at this point.

[Old Style]

In what world does Alabama win out and NOT make the playoff? I know you have 99% but they would be 12-1 with an SEC Championship and the only loss a last second FG on the road against a likely 11-1 SEC team.

[soccer10k]

In what world does Alabama win out and NOT make the playoff? I know you have 99% but they would be 12-1 with an SEC Championship and the only loss a last second FG on the road against a likely 11-1 SEC team.

 

Would have to be undefeated from all other Power 5 conferences. Still have Clemson and Syracuse from the ACC, TCU in the Big 12, Michigan and Ohio State in the Big 10 and UCLA in the Pac 12.

 

I would think all of those would be ranked in front of Bama if undefeated unless it was a scenario when FSU went undefeated but was ranked behind 1-loss Bama and Oregon because they kept squeaking out wins and people knew they weren’t that good.

[bukie]

In what world does Alabama win out and NOT make the playoff? I know you have 99% but they would be 12-1 with an SEC Championship and the only loss a last second FG on the road against a likely 11-1 SEC team.

Undefeated Ohio State, undefeated UCLA, undefeated Clemson, Bama struggles to barely win the rest of their schedule, beats a previously undefeated Georgia in the SEC championship, but Georgia was without their best two players, who would be back for the postseason. Could squint and see Bama missing out in that scenario.

[NOLA]

It is impossible to even sorta like Clemson with Dabo.