2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Bertz]

I mentioned this a few weeks ago but I would be legitimately interested in Ha Seong Kim. The Pads supposedly want pitching depth, which we have, and Madrigal (or Mastrobuoni I guess) could slide in as his replacement at 2B. Plus it would give them a little more breathing room under the 3rd luxury tax tier.

 

Kim obviously isn't a big bat but was still above average last year and always a wizard with the glove. And if you're into low GB% he has that too. If we're doing the run prevention thing, I am concerned about our current 3B situation. Wisdom was good in 21 and Morel has all the tools but man they were both really shaky there last season.

 

They probably wouldn't have need for Madrigal. I think part of the impotice for making the trade would be getting Cronenworth back over to 2B. That said it's an interesting idea, Kim would give us an insane infield defense and like you said another heavy flyball guy. Though I don't love his bat in general.

 

I'd love to know what the team thinks about the internal 3B options defensively. Wisdom was very good there in '21 and really bad in '22. Morel was really bad in very limited play time in '22 but had a very strong reputation coming up through the minors. Mckinstry was fine there last year, but considering his work elsewhere would he be good with more playing time? If you told me any or all of these guys were somewhere between +5 and +10 defensively as a full time 3B I'd believe you. They all have questions offensively too, but they're small enough you'd be comfortable with some insurances they're a plus defender.

 

Kind if like CF, 3B probably ends up being in a pretty good spot by the end of this season. But it's hard to say who ultimately gets the lions share of the playing time, and how much damage is done to the team's chances while it gets sorted out.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah I absolutely understand the wariness around 3B, but it's also a spot where there's no less than 4 internal options(Morel, Wisdom, McKinstry, Mastrobuoni), all of which are at least okay defenders and 2 each that are RH/LH that can make for a functional platoon. It may take some time to get it just right, but I also think last year they showed a willingness to act quickly enough with poor performers(Heyward, Villar, Simmons) that I think they'll be able to avoid it being a black hole.

 

I'll also say that I can marshal enough optimism for McKinstry and Mastrobuoni in particular that I'm not all that enthused about adding someone like Wendle to the mix, as I'm not sure there's a material difference. For example, look at what someone like Brendan Donovan did last year and compare his building blocks to Mastrobuoni.

[Bertz]

With the Twins adding Correa, the Cubs should call them about Alex Kiriloff or Matt Wallner. It would be nice to have someone at Iowa breathing down the necks of Mervis and Hosmer for LHH 1B/DH at bats.

[Bertz]

 

This isn't a bad idea either. .296/.356/.523 against lefties over the last three years. Makes a ton of sense in particular if you're bearish on Wisdom's ability to play 3B.

[CubinNY]

 

This isn't a bad idea either. .296/.356/.523 against lefties over the last three years. Makes a ton of sense in particular if you're bearish on Wisdom's ability to play 3B.

He plays really good defense too, correct?

[Bertz]

 

This isn't a bad idea either. .296/.356/.523 against lefties over the last three years. Makes a ton of sense in particular if you're bearish on Wisdom's ability to play 3B.

He plays really good defense too, correct?

 

Probabiy? He mostly plays shortstop, and is just okay there. But the little bit of 3B he's played the numbers have been good and generally you'd expect even a below average SS to be good at 3B.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Feels like we're starting to out-think ourselves a bit. The team has had the whole offseason to hedge against Morel not being able to hit LHP last year(which will continue past his first 100 MLB PA despite normal to heavy MiLB platoon splits because reasons?) or Wisdom having an outlier negative RAA at 3B despite marginally different UZR, and they've been connected to basically zero players at the position. Even the bat first guys have been Abreu, Mancini, Hosmer, Smith, not a 3B in the bunch. Farmer is a clear upgrade to the existing 3B on one axis, and that's making contact. Aside from that it's questionable at best he's a better defender(-3 at SS last year, 65 MLB games at 3B, older than Wisdom) or at hitting LHP(career marks similar to Wisdom, and again Morel should hit them hard).

[Post Count Padder]

Brian Anderson is still a free agent. One year deal and plug him in at third and make Wisdom the DH? Not the sexiest move but improves defense and he was a good hitter pretty recently.

[Bertz]

Feels like we're starting to out-think ourselves a bit. The team has had the whole offseason to hedge against Morel not being able to hit LHP last year(which will continue past his first 100 MLB PA despite normal to heavy MiLB platoon splits because reasons?) or Wisdom having an outlier negative RAA at 3B despite marginally different UZR, and they've been connected to basically zero players at the position. Even the bat first guys have been Abreu, Mancini, Hosmer, Smith, not a 3B in the bunch. Farmer is a clear upgrade to the existing 3B on one axis, and that's making contact. Aside from that it's questionable at best he's a better defender(-3 at SS last year, 65 MLB games at 3B, older than Wisdom) or at hitting LHP(career marks similar to Wisdom, and again Morel should hit them hard).

 

For me I think the clear top priority for that last bench spot is mashing lefties. From there it's basically a choice of whether you want someone who can hold their own against righties too (someone like McCutchen) or someone who provides defensive value (e.g. Farmer or Adam Duvall). I lean toward the latter.

 

I'm with you in not being especially worried about Morel's splits though. His peripherals were better against lefties than righties, so last year was likely a batted ball fluke. But as much as I'm a huge fan of Morel, he is a source of some elevated risk in the lineup. And even if he does produce, it'd be nice to have the freedom to move him around as needed and backfill him at 3B with a Mckinstry/Farmer platoon.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

For me I think the clear top priority for that last bench spot is mashing lefties. From there it's basically a choice of whether you want someone who can hold their own against righties too (someone like McCutchen) or someone who provides defensive value (e.g. Farmer or Adam Duvall). I lean toward the latter.

 

Even if it is the latter, I just don't see this clear distinction between Farmer and Wisdom defensively that make it worth the resources to bring in Farmer. And more importantly, there's no indication the FO shares the view that Farmer or someone like him is missing from the position player pool. Case in point, that choice above could even be extended to say, Velazquez instead of Wisdom and be more useful to the shape of the roster than a 2nd or 3rd RHH 3B.

[Bertz]

 

Don't like, would have much rather held onto Leiter than several others particularly Rucker. The ceiling is lower with the piddling velo but he was very good in shorter stints last year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wonder if this came down to Leiter Jr's lack of options. Either that or they don't see much sustainability in his 2022 and would rather bet on Rucker's velocity.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This also means that the only players on the 40 man who are out of options and on the fringes of the 26 man are McKinstry and Alzolay.

[Bertz]

Wonder if this came down to Leiter Jr's lack of options. Either that or they don't see much sustainability in his 2022 and would rather bet on Rucker's velocity.

 

Yeah it's probably the out of options thing (though IMO that'sa bit silly to worry about for a 31 year old making league minimumbut I digress). I wonder if that means they're bringing in two more relievers? Right now you have the following as locks:

 

Alzolay, Thompson, Hughes, Boxberger, Wick

 

Jed also seems to like to leave one spot for the Iowa shuttle, which brings us to 6 of 8 spots accounted for. Are those last two currently outside the org, or is it just one more veteran and then a more mopup-y long reliever like Sampson?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wonder if this came down to Leiter Jr's lack of options. Either that or they don't see much sustainability in his 2022 and would rather bet on Rucker's velocity.

 

Yeah it's probably the out of options thing (though IMO that'sa bit silly to worry about for a 31 year old making league minimumbut I digress). I wonder if that means they're bringing in two more relievers? Right now you have the following as locks:

 

Alzolay, Thompson, Hughes, Boxberger, Wick

 

Jed also seems to like to leave one spot for the Iowa shuttle, which brings us to 6 of 8 spots accounted for. Are those last two currently outside the org, or is it just one more veteran and then a more mopup-y long reliever like Sampson?

 

That is my guess, Sampson, a FA/external acquisition, and then someone from the Estrada/Rodriguez/Rucker group(with Heuer following behind).

[Tim]

I want Estrada in the pen. But in my head he's learned how to throw strikes consistently over the offseason.

[Cubswin11]

Heuer and Roberts will be put on the 60 day once they can make that move and guessing one of those open spot is used for a vet RP.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Sign Chafin for more LH help. The fit is perfect.

[Gilby]

Cerami says we're still interested in Mancini. TBH, I might value his sourced rumors more than most in Chicago media. He doesn't do it often, but his hit rate is pretty high

[Post Count Padder]

Cerami says we're still interested in Mancini. TBH, I might value his sourced rumors more than most in Chicago media. He doesn't do it often, but his hit rate is pretty high

He had Dansby first I think. I'd buy it. We could use another bat and another lefty in the pen. And Nico extension.

[Bertz]

Cerami says we're still interested in Mancini. TBH, I might value his sourced rumors more than most in Chicago media. He doesn't do it often, but his hit rate is pretty high

 

Totally agree. Timing would make sense too. Arb agreements being done means the team knows exactly what they have payroll wise and could unblock the last few offseason moves.

[Tryptamine]

If they sign Mancini, that basically guarantees Mervis in AAA. They aren't going to roster Mancini, Hosmer and Mervis.

[Irrelevant Dude]

If they sign Mancini, that basically guarantees Mervis in AAA. They aren't going to roster Mancini, Hosmer and Mervis.

Yeah, that sucks. I was looking forward to seeing what Mervis could do in Chicago. I'm also not high on either Hosmer or Mancini.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is a pretty substantial update from Sharma, and there's some eye-opening stuff to me: https://theathletic.com/4091508/2023/01/14/cubs-convention-roster-holes/

 

- He says the choice may be between adding a bat and adding another RP, and seems to imply it's because RP asking prices are so high(using Matt Strahm's 2/15 deal as an anchoring point). Matt Moore and Chafin are mentioned as targets.

 

- He says Mervis has been told his ST performance will not dictate whether or not he makes the team. Combining with the above, you can read between the lines that Mervis makes the team on opening day if a RP gets added but probably not if they add the bat. The RH bat targets listed are Mancini, Franmil Reyes, and a mystery unnamed player.

 

- He spends six paragraphs talking about 3B and doesn't say Morel's name once. Instead it's Wisdom as the favorite, McKinstry as his platoon/hedge(though teams are asking about McKinstry in trade?), and Mastrobuoni and Madrigal(!?!?!?) are also options.

 

- Morel's name finally shows up in a list of players who may start in Iowa but play a significant role or end the season with the big league team. Others include Madrigal, Wesneski, Velazquez, and Assad.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Oh, by the way.