2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Tryptamine]

Pitching solid, defense very good, offense horrendous.

[Cubswin11]

Pitching solid, defense very good, offense horrendous.

Depending on other moves, which I still think they do some sort of 3B/1B and C move. The offense should be fine, the OF of Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki should all be 2.5+ win guys with 4+ upside by them all. Nico and Swanson have 3-4+ win upside, catching should be okay, if Mervis is anything 1B with him and Wisdom is okay with a little Bellinger, add Turner/Segura/Drury for 3B. No real stars but every spot should at least be above average with even a few smaller adds. Not a WS winning team but maybe a WC team with every spot bringing some positive value.

[17 Seconds]

[Tryptamine]

 

Conforto is kind of the last shot at a big bat, unless you think Mancini is.

[UMFan83]

 

Conforto is kind of the last shot at a big bat, unless you think Mancini is.

 

Yeah...the Cubs really need a lot more power than they currently have. Swanson is solid but basically replacing Contreras's power. Hope that Seiya can amp it up next year. Bellinger will hit HRs but unless he recovers from his swan dive not going to provide enough consistent power. Right now either Morel or Madrigal is our projected DH I think.

[Cubswin11]

 

Conforto is kind of the last shot at a big bat, unless you think Mancini is.

 

Yeah...the Cubs really need a lot more power than they currently have. Swanson is solid but basically replacing Contreras's power. Hope that Seiya can amp it up next year. Bellinger will hit HRs but unless he recovers from his swan dive not going to provide enough consistent power. Right now either Morel or Madrigal is our projected DH I think.

Mervis is probably the projected DH as of today I think. Hopefully we’re still adding Drury, Segura or Anderson for 3B and Aguilar, Belt or Hosmer for 1B (with some DH work for any of those names and Morel/Wisdom rotation around as well). That seems like a competent infield.

[UMFan83]

 

Conforto is kind of the last shot at a big bat, unless you think Mancini is.

 

Yeah...the Cubs really need a lot more power than they currently have. Swanson is solid but basically replacing Contreras's power. Hope that Seiya can amp it up next year. Bellinger will hit HRs but unless he recovers from his swan dive not going to provide enough consistent power. Right now either Morel or Madrigal is our projected DH I think.

Mervis is probably the projected DH as of today I think. Hopefully we’re still adding Drury, Segura or Anderson for 3B and Aguilar, Belt or Hosmer for 1B (with some DH work for any of those names and Morel/Wisdom rotation around as well). That seems like a competent infield.

 

Yeah could definitely be Mervis, though I'm hesitant to put him in projected lineups until he actually makes the MLB roster. I know the Cubs are high on him but may consider starting him at Iowa for reasons.

[Bearded_Beef]

Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why I should be remotely happy with Tucker Barnhart? I get that the FO seems to really appreciate what Gomes does behind the plate and they wanted him to be the full time catcher, mostly, it seems, to benefit the pitching staff somehow (though I am still not sure exactly how or why tbh). My question is at what cost? How much better would this lineup look with Contreras right now? Is Gomes/Barnhart really better than Contreras/Gomes at.. well.. anything? Would we still be pining for a guy like Conforto if we had Contreras?

 

Tucker just seems like he really sucks and while I might still be a little bitter about basically throwing Contreras out the door, I also just don't feel like I am following along with any sort of logic the FO might be applying here.

[CubinNY]

Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why I should be remotely happy with Tucker Barnhart? I get that the FO seems to really appreciate what Gomes does behind the plate and they wanted him to be the full time catcher, mostly, it seems, to benefit the pitching staff somehow (though I am still not sure exactly how or why tbh). My question is at what cost? How much better would this lineup look with Contreras right now? Is Gomes/Barnhart really better than Contreras/Gomes at.. well.. anything? Would we still be pining for a guy like Conforto if we had Contreras?

 

Tucker just seems like he really sucks and while I might still be a little bitter about basically throwing Contreras out the door, I also just don't feel like I am following along with any sort of logic the FO might be applying here.

I don't know or think I know more than you, but there is no reason to be happy with a Tucker Barnhart signing, so you shouldn't be happy with one. They do need another catcher and he will do. That's it. No reason to be happy about it. Contreras is clearly the better player but he's not in a cub uniform any longer for reasons that only Jed and his team understand. Hopefully, Aymia will show he's ready at some point this season, but I think the ship has sailed on him being a star-quality player.

[Bertz]

Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why I should be remotely happy with Tucker Barnhart? I get that the FO seems to really appreciate what Gomes does behind the plate and they wanted him to be the full time catcher, mostly, it seems, to benefit the pitching staff somehow (though I am still not sure exactly how or why tbh). My question is at what cost? How much better would this lineup look with Contreras right now? Is Gomes/Barnhart really better than Contreras/Gomes at.. well.. anything? Would we still be pining for a guy like Conforto if we had Contreras?

 

Tucker just seems like he really sucks and while I might still be a little bitter about basically throwing Contreras out the door, I also just don't feel like I am following along with any sort of logic the FO might be applying here.

 

A number of teams are all in on the soft stuff catchers provide. The Astros with Maltin Maldonado and Yankees with basically everyone they've run out post Gary Sanchez are the prime examples. The Dodgers before Will Smith were leaning on Austin Barnes a lot more than anyone thought they should have too. It's en vogue for a lot of smart teams right now. And like even in our own back yard check out how Cubs pitchers performed last year with Gomes behind the plate vs. with Contreras. It's a stark difference.

 

There's obviously a huge appeal to authority happening here, which isn't great, but at least the Cubs aren't alone in making it. I would very much prefer Perez (who does more of the obvious catcher defense things very well) or Casali (who's a pretty good offensive catcher) even going down this route. I think the only thing Barnhart does well that's quantifiable is hit left handed.

 

One ray of sunshine on the catcher front is Miguel Amaya. Even after missing most of two seasons, he projects very well. He's likely an option in the second half.

[Tim]

Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why I should be remotely happy with Tucker Barnhart? I get that the FO seems to really appreciate what Gomes does behind the plate and they wanted him to be the full time catcher, mostly, it seems, to benefit the pitching staff somehow (though I am still not sure exactly how or why tbh). My question is at what cost? How much better would this lineup look with Contreras right now? Is Gomes/Barnhart really better than Contreras/Gomes at.. well.. anything? Would we still be pining for a guy like Conforto if we had Contreras?

 

Tucker just seems like he really sucks and while I might still be a little bitter about basically throwing Contreras out the door, I also just don't feel like I am following along with any sort of logic the FO might be applying here.

To expand on what Bertz said, Barnhart is a switch hitter who has normally hit reasonably well against right handed pitching. So the thought would be that he & Gomes would provide something close to a league average bat when paired together.

 

Also Barnhart has a sterling reputation for all the soft factors of catching. That reputation includes two gold gloves behind the plate. So the Cubs are trying to go defense & game management first, while still pairing players together that can possibly provide enough offense to avoid a black hole in the lineup.

[Tim]

One ray of sunshine on the catcher front is Miguel Amaya. Even after missing most of two seasons, he projects very well. He's likely an option in the second half.

I think that might be too aggressive. I think he'll be an option for '24 if he shows out this year.

[Rex Buckingham]

Can someone who knows more about this stuff explain to me why I should be remotely happy with Tucker Barnhart? I get that the FO seems to really appreciate what Gomes does behind the plate and they wanted him to be the full time catcher, mostly, it seems, to benefit the pitching staff somehow (though I am still not sure exactly how or why tbh). My question is at what cost? How much better would this lineup look with Contreras right now? Is Gomes/Barnhart really better than Contreras/Gomes at.. well.. anything? Would we still be pining for a guy like Conforto if we had Contreras?

 

Tucker just seems like he really sucks and while I might still be a little bitter about basically throwing Contreras out the door, I also just don't feel like I am following along with any sort of logic the FO might be applying here.

 

A number of teams are all in on the soft stuff catchers provide. The Astros with Maltin Maldonado and Yankees with basically everyone they've run out post Gary Sanchez are the prime examples. The Dodgers before Will Smith were leaning on Austin Barnes a lot more than anyone thought they should have too. It's en vogue for a lot of smart teams right now. And like even in our own back yard check out how Cubs pitchers performed last year with Gomes behind the plate vs. with Contreras. It's a stark difference.

 

There's obviously a huge appeal to authority happening here, which isn't great, but at least the Cubs aren't alone in making it. I would very much prefer Perez (who does more of the obvious catcher defense things very well) or Casali (who's a pretty good offensive catcher) even going down this route. I think the only thing Barnhart does well that's quantifiable is hit left handed.

 

One ray of sunshine on the catcher front is Miguel Amaya. Even after missing most of two seasons, he projects very well. He's likely an option in the second half.

 

While the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers (pre-Smith) have run out mostly defensive catchers, they've also had the luxury of doing so because of their deep lineups. When you have a lineup that doesn't have any below average hitters elsewhere, it's easy to put one at C

[Transmogrified Tiger]

While the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers (pre-Smith) have run out mostly defensive catchers, they've also had the luxury of doing so because of their deep lineups. When you have a lineup that doesn't have any below average hitters elsewhere, it's easy to put one at C

 

Are those teams really looking for a lineup spot where they can 'get away with' lesser players though? I'm sure having an elite offense makes it easier on the margins to opt for a defensive catcher, but ultimately value is value, and the Yankees and Dodgers in particular aren't going to spare expense on their way to what they think makes the best possible team.

[Cubswin11]

Gomes career vs LHP: .279/.329/.483, .812 OPS, 117wRC+

 

Barnhart career vs RHP: .251/.328/.377, .704 OPS, 89 wRC+.

 

Add in the defense, unquantifiable, soft stuff and that’s probably a good enough tandem that won’t be too much of a black hole. Probably get league average offense from the spot and well above average on the quantifiable defensive stuff and the game calling/pitcher handling stuff. It shouldn’t be too hard to hit 1.5-2.5 out of them combined.

[Bertz]

While the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers (pre-Smith) have run out mostly defensive catchers, they've also had the luxury of doing so because of their deep lineups. When you have a lineup that doesn't have any below average hitters elsewhere, it's easy to put one at C

 

I think that's a bit overstated, particularly with the Yankees who also explicitly punted offense at SS last year. Of course having an Aaron Judge papers over a lot of ills.

 

That said I don't disagree with the thrust of what you're saying. A few things to consider though:

 

- The league average OPS at C was .672 last year with a .295 OBP. The bar is so low that Yan Gomes actually projects as an above average hitter for the position, as does Curt Casali. Perez and Barnhart project below but only to an extent that nets out to -5ish runs compared to an average catcher. Their lines look so egregiously bad because we're benchmarking off of Contreras, not because they're actually all that bad. We're not talking Austin Hedges

 

- Speaking of Contreras, a common refrain among the fanbase is "the offense already sucked last year even with Contreras." It did, but something to keep in mind is the Cubs also had some of the worst 1B production in the league last year. Schwindel and Rivas combined for nearly 600 PAs of hitting like a below average catcher last year, that basically cancels out the boon from our catcher hitting like a good 1B. There's a legit 3 WAR swing from Schwindel and Rivas' actual production last season to what Mervis is projected for this upcoming one. The offense was likely improved a bit year-over-year before the offseason even started

 

- After they add a DH, the Cubs will have eight guys on the projected OD roster who project as average or better hitters, plus a couple more in Iowa. And Wisdom and Bellinger are only a smidge below that line. Though Bellinger is clearly an extremely high variance guy offensively at this stage

 

The lineup doesn't look that great because there's no monster hitter to serve as the linchpin. But they're deep, likely to be average to good offensively everywhere but catcher and CF. And those two positions, by virtue of that depth, have several contingencies built in if things go sideways. There's a pretty hard cap on how good this offense can be by virtue of how little offensive star power there is, but given the number of fallback options I'd say it's very unlikely to end up bad even with a pretty blah duo at catcher.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- Speaking of Contreras, a common refrain among the fanbase is "the offense already sucked last year even with Contreras." It did, but something to keep in mind is the Cubs also had some of the worst 1B production in the league last year. Schwindel and Rivas combined for nearly 600 PAs of hitting like a below average catcher last year, that basically cancels out the boon from our catcher hitting like a good 1B. There's a legit 3 WAR swing from Schwindel and Rivas' actual production last season to what Mervis is projected for this upcoming one. The offense was likely improved a bit year-over-year before the offseason even started

 

I know this has been mentioned a few times but it's worth reiterating how sneaky these black holes were, both in terms of overall production and in terms of generating power.

 

Schwindel/Rivas (580 PA): ~.100 IsoP, ~80 wRC+

Mervis Steamer: .218 IsoP, 122 wRC+

Mancini Steamer: .165 IsoP, 107 wRC+

 

Madrigal/Simmons/Villar (480 PA): ~.075 IsoP, ~65 wRC+

Swanson Steamer: .168 IsoP, 104 wRC+

Swanson ZiPS: .177 IsoP, 106 OPS+

[17 Seconds]

not a guy i'd expect to recruit for the cubs

 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

not a guy i'd expect to recruit for the cubs

 

It doesn’t really surprise me that much, though Brett will probably write a post about it for BN with a whole bunch of exclamation points in it.

[Cubswin11]

I think this is the first time we’ve been linked to Conforto with sources/real journalists/blue checks, outside of message board/twitter Cubs speculation

 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

At this point getting Conforto would break one of my priors(Conforto getting a 8 figure salary, Smyly getting 7-10M AAV, Cubs not going over the LT, Cubs spending more than near-minimum on at least 1 more RP), but if they signed him this really is a pretty good lineup in the median outcome:

 

Happ

Suzuki

Conforto

Swanson

Mervis

Hoerner

Bellinger

Morel/Wisdom

Gomes/C

 

That median outcome is probably less likely for that group than it is for most teams, but you've got 4 guys who don't need to hit their 90th percentile to reach 120 wRC+ or higher, some chance for additional positive variance via Bellinger/Morel, and a couple others helping to raise the floor with Hoerner/Swanson. 3/5/1 LH/RH/Switch and reasonable BB/K balance too.

[Cubswin11]

At this point getting Conforto would break one of my priors(Conforto getting a 8 figure salary, Smyly getting 7-10M AAV, Cubs not going over the LT, Cubs spending more than near-minimum on at least 1 more RP), but if they signed him this really is a pretty good lineup in the median outcome:

 

Happ

Suzuki

Conforto

Swanson

Mervis

Hoerner

Bellinger

Morel/Wisdom

Gomes/C

 

That median outcome is probably less likely for that group than it is for most teams, but you've got 4 guys who don't need to hit their 90th percentile to reach 120 wRC+ or higher, some chance for additional positive variance via Bellinger/Morel, and a couple others helping to raise the floor with Hoerner/Swanson. 3/5/1 LH/RH/Switch and reasonable BB/K balance too.

Yeah that’s not going to be a top offense in the league but I think the floor is quite high if things break decently. Maybe like 8-12th best in the league or so (last year 21-24 WAR was a top 8-13th offense, and low 100s wRC+ for same range) and then hope the defense is truly elite to elevate the pitching.

[Gilby]

I think I'm fine with the current bullpen and using resources elsewhere if PTR won't allow Jed to go over the LT. Hughes/Boxberger/Alzolay/Thompson is a good circle of trust.

 

Still curious what the Smyly contract number is. They could also do some creative accounting with a Conforto deal similar to the structure of the Turner deal with Boston. He gets some insurance in a year 2 player option at a lower salary in case his shoulder is toast and the Cubs get a lower AAV after a front loaded year 1. Unless that's circumventing the rules a little too much for MLB's liking

[Bertz]

At this point getting Conforto would break one of my priors(Conforto getting a 8 figure salary, Smyly getting 7-10M AAV, Cubs not going over the LT, Cubs spending more than near-minimum on at least 1 more RP), but if they signed him this really is a pretty good lineup in the median outcome:

 

Happ

Suzuki

Conforto

Swanson

Mervis

Hoerner

Bellinger

Morel/Wisdom

Gomes/C

 

That median outcome is probably less likely for that group than it is for most teams, but you've got 4 guys who don't need to hit their 90th percentile to reach 120 wRC+ or higher, some chance for additional positive variance via Bellinger/Morel, and a couple others helping to raise the floor with Hoerner/Swanson. 3/5/1 LH/RH/Switch and reasonable BB/K balance too.

 

One of the things that helps too is the three guys with the biggest question marks (Mervis being a rookie, Conforto/Bellinger for injury) are all lefties, while the team has RHH bats coming out its ears. You obviously can't tenably manage three concurrent platoons every day, but it does raise the floor on each of those guys significantly.

 

I also wonder if, thinking through the above, the rumors aroundMancini would be in addition to Conforto rathwr than instead of. Mancini-Wisdom-Other Catcher-Mastrobuoni is a pretty killer bench paired with the lineup you laid out above. Obviously that would require passing the LT though.

[Backtobanks]

not a guy i'd expect to recruit for the cubs

 

 

Why wouldn't he recruit for a team and a city that idolized him for 9 years. I'm sure after he got over the hurt feelings of being traded (like all of the others), he realized that baseball is a business, and he came out of it in a great spot.