2022 In Season Thread

[Cubswin11]

When’s the last time Heyward hit the IL? Ever? I don’t recall.

He came off the IL like 2-3 weeks ago and he missed all that time in 2018 or 2019 with the concussion he got trying to rob Fowler’s walk off dong vs us when he actually was hitting well.

[Andy]

When’s the last time Heyward hit the IL? Ever? I don’t recall.

He came off the IL like 2-3 weeks ago and he missed all that time in 2018 or 2019 with the concussion he got trying to rob Fowler’s walk off dong vs us when he actually was hitting well.

He also got IL'd in 16 after making the greatest catch I've ever seen unfold as it happened in SF.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

 

Stout to shut us down this week.

 

PTR getting some cash to make himself less poor.

[Bertz]

I'm increasingly wondering if an Ian Happ trade or non-trade will be the canary in the coal mine for what to expect this winter.

 

If Jed's planning to build a "aim for 82 wins and hope for the best" type squad next year, there's not really much reason to hold onto a premium left fielder. Especially with how much of the funnest parts of the farm are outfielders who will potentially start being on the MLB radar late next year.

 

But if the plan is to actually start to try next year, it's hard to see dumpimg a guy who projects north of 3 WAR, no matter how low on the defensive spectrum he lies. Even if you think he's replaceable, you're at least doubling his salary to do so, and while the books are fairly clean they're not *that* clean. Also of the good players on the roster, he's probably the safest. Like while each of Hoerner, Happ, and Seiya project between 3-3.5 WAR, Hoerner's injuries and Seiya's lack of MLB track record give them considerably more downside risk.

 

It's not definitive, again scarcity at 1B and LF aren't quite the same as other positions. There may also be Happ-specific things the org doesn't love, like they don't buy his slashed K-rate, but I think this will be the biggest data point for what to expect over the winter. Even moreso than how MLB-adjacent the returns for Willson and Robertson are.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm increasingly wondering if an Ian Happ trade or non-trade will be the canary in the coal mine for what to expect this winter.

 

If Jed's planning to build a "aim for 82 wins and hope for the best" type squad next year, there's not really much reason to hold onto a premium left fielder. Especially with how much of the funnest parts of the farm are outfielders who will potentially start being on the MLB radar late next year.

 

But if the plan is to actually start to try next year, it's hard to see dumpimg a guy who projects north of 3 WAR, no matter how low on the defensive spectrum he lies. Even if you think he's replaceable, you're at least doubling his salary to do so, and while the books are fairly clean they're not *that* clean. Also of the good players on the roster, he's probably the safest. Like while each of Hoerner, Happ, and Seiya project between 3-3.5 WAR, Hoerner's injuries and Seiya's lack of MLB track record give them considerably more downside risk.

 

It's not definitive, again scarcity at 1B and LF aren't quite the same as other positions. There may also be Happ-specific things the org doesn't love, like they don't buy his slashed K-rate, but I think this will be the biggest data point for what to expect over the winter. Even moreso than how MLB-adjacent the returns for Willson and Robertson are.

 

This might not be a popular take, but I'd like to trade him regardless. Happ having a career year with 1.5 years to free agency is never going to have more value, a LF only player without elite consistency isn't a guy who makes sense to give a long term deal for his 30s, and since he's now locked to LF he plays a position where it's both easy in the league-wide sense but also in the current org sense to replace(Ortega, Velazquez, Davis). If you can turn Happ into a useful part of the 2023 team then you can come out ahead as soon as next year.

[Backtobanks]

I'm increasingly wondering if an Ian Happ trade or non-trade will be the canary in the coal mine for what to expect this winter.

 

[highlight=yellow]If Jed's planning to build a "aim for 82 wins and hope for the best[/highlight]" type squad next year, there's not really much reason to hold onto a premium left fielder. Especially with how much of the funnest parts of the farm are outfielders who will potentially start being on the MLB radar late next year.

 

But if the plan is to actually start to try next year, it's hard to see dumpimg a guy who projects north of 3 WAR, no matter how low on the defensive spectrum he lies. Even if you think he's replaceable, you're at least doubling his salary to do so, and while the books are fairly clean they're not *that* clean. Also of the good players on the roster, he's probably the safest. Like while each of Hoerner, Happ, and Seiya project between 3-3.5 WAR, Hoerner's injuries and Seiya's lack of MLB track record give them considerably more downside risk.

 

It's not definitive, again scarcity at 1B and LF aren't quite the same as other positions. There may also be Happ-specific things the org doesn't love, like they don't buy his slashed K-rate, but I think this will be the biggest data point for what to expect over the winter. Even moreso than how MLB-adjacent the returns for Willson and Robertson are.

 

If Jed is planning to aim for 82 wins, he's either delusional or Tom is open the pocketbook really wide.

[SouthSideRyan]

Aim for 82 wins is the trying method for next year isn't it?

[Bertz]

[Bertz]

 

Bote up Nelly down presumably tomorrow. Bote is on the 60 Day IL so there'll be a DFA as well (Leiter?).

[Bertz]

 

Oh this is much much better!

[Tim]

 

Oh this is much much better!

If only that read "Heyward"

[Derwood]

Amazing how Jed went 0-for the entire off season. What a disaster

[We Got The Whole 9]

Robertson looks like a decent chip :shrug:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thinking nonsense thoughts…the Jays, Twins, and Phillies maybe seem the most likely trade partners? The Twins can be sneaky players for Contreras with Simeon Woods-Richardson to dangle and some LHH depth organizationally (Matt Wallner?). The Jays seem like a fit for Happ, the LHH OF options are Ramiel Tapiel and Bradley Zimmer. I wonder how available Biggio might be? Might prefer Spencer Horowitz anyway at this stage anyway

 

The Phillies have used only a handful of starters this year, Suarez the only lefty, seem like a great Miley fit. They’ve got some talented lefties like Jones and Dohy that stalled, I like Jhailyn Ortiz enough as a developmental power bat already in the upper minors

 

The Twins are also a potential Happ destination. It might be too late considering he's currently getting regular run at 1B(though he hasn't hit in MLB yet), but I'd love to get my hands on Kirilloff.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also the Giants getting some talent for Duggar seems worth mentioning in the case of Rafael Ortega. Duggar’s a better defensive CF/OF but Ortega’s definitely outhitting him and IIRC is cheaper…The Phillies with Castellanos in LF again seem like a fit

 

Trading one or more of these back of the roster veterans besides Robertson seems key to a turnaround somehow :dontknow: …Trading Ortega would open up the shot to cycle guys like Young, Hill, Mervis, Roederer sooner rather than later

 

Ortega is a year further from arbitration, but more importantly he's 2.5 years older, which makes it a harder sell for a material return at 31 than 28. I'm not overly enthusiastic about Ortega, but between his age and the way he can help the team in the short run(raising the roster's floor, hitting left handed on a roster/high minors devoid of LHH) I find it hard to see a net positive trade outcome for him. Wisdom could be a different story if the right deal came along given his younger age and defensive value, but again someone has to play 3B and there's no reason a team can't be competitive with Wisdom playing 3B in the meantime.

[JeffH]

Wisdom could be a different story if the right deal came along given his younger age and defensive value, but again someone has to play 3B and there's no reason a team can't be competitive with Wisdom playing 3B in the meantime.

 

[Backtobanks]

Ortega is a year further from arbitration, but more importantly he's 2.5 years older, which makes it a harder sell for a material return at 31 than 28. I'm not overly enthusiastic about Ortega, but between his age and the way he can help the team in the short run(raising the roster's floor, hitting left handed on a roster/high minors devoid of LHH) I find it hard to see a net positive trade outcome for him. Wisdom could be a different story if the right deal came along given his younger age and defensive value, but again someone has to play 3B and there's no reason a team can't be competitive with Wisdom playing 3B in the meantime.

 

Not sure I agree with the floor, especially for 2023+. He's 32 next year, lost a MPH on EVs, stopped hitting HRs, isn't really a CF anymore, and the x stats all seem to say this is Ortega. It's also still early but Hill, Mervis, Roederer, Weber, and Young are all hitting well in the upper minors right now and could have some meaty samples by the end of July. If things are going well and the Yankees or Phillies or Giants (if Calhoun goes nowhere) are looking for super cheap LHH OF, a (ideally seemingly) random pitcher with some velocity and the roster spot might be meaningful enough? Without HRs, it might be alot easier for someone like Hill or Roederer to work their way up? Something like that

 

Phillies might be interested in Ortega now with Harper out.

[Jaxbro]

Mills to the IL, Rucker up

[muntjack]

Looking at potential trade targets and came across something that just blew my mind.

 

The Oakland A's have no players, at any sample size, with an OPS of .700 or better. 1B Seth Brown is #1 on the team at .699.

[CubinNY]

Kyle to the IL and Espinoza called up.

[Bertz]

 

 

Not 100% sure where the 40 is at at this point, but Dermody seems likely to have been called up because he's easily DFA-able.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

 

Not 100% sure where the 40 is at at this point, but Dermody seems likely to have been called up because he's easily DFA-able.

 

Dermody makes 40 even if the team site is completely up to date.

[JeffH]

Dermody makes 38.

[Post Count Padder]

 

 

Not 100% sure where the 40 is at at this point, but Dermody seems likely to have been called up because he's easily DFA-able.

 

Dermody makes 40 even if the team site is completely up to date.

That was my thought. I wanna see guys like Leeper and Mekkes get a look but they probably didn't want to rush them up for a double header. Or I haven't followed Iowa the last few days so I don't know who is healthy or rested.

[Bertz]

 

Didn't expect the Bote move. He seems likely to be out of the org after this year.