Trade Happ?

[Quakers]

I have seen at least two rumors involving trading Happ for prospects (Tigers and White Sox).

 

Should we? Is it too early? Only if the price is right?

[Tim]

I've certainly got nothing against it if the price is right.

[David]

I have seen at least two rumors involving trading Happ for prospects (Tigers and White Sox).

 

Should we? Is it too early? Only if the price is right?

 

Where have you seen these rumors?

[Quakers]

I read the rumors on my Google feed. So the trustworthiness of the rumor is to be doubted. Just bloggers for the Sox and Tigers who liked Happ's versatility (OF and 2B) and seem to think he could be had for some prospects in their organizations. Not top level, but good enough to be interesting.

 

Motorcitybengals.com

 

Southsidesox.com

Edited May 6, 2022 by Quakers

[Quakers]

The article for the Tigers is on Fansided by Scott Daniel...

 

He talks about the price going steep( Gage Workman, Reese Olsen, and Daz Cameron), but it would be worth it to salvage a terrible start by the Tigers.

 

I edited and posted the links to the articles above.

[David]

ah so i'd file that under blogger/writer/whatever speculation and not actual rumors

[OleMissCub]

I read the rumors on my Google feed. So the trustworthiness of the rumor is to be doubted. Just bloggers for the Ox and Tigers who liked Happ's versatility (OF and 2B) and seem to think he could be had for some prospects in their organizations. Not top level, but good enough to be interesting.

 

Motorcitybengals.com

 

Southsidesox.com

 

Happ’s days of playing 2B might be over. He said he did not care for it the last time he did it after having spent so much time in the OF.

[UMFan83]

I have 0 problems with any player on this current team getting traded for the right price. Happ has been a solid MLer but has probably hit his ceiling as a solid MLB starter that can average up to 2 wins per season. He'd be a great piece for a contender but is not a cornerstone player thus the Cubs have no need for him as he's 2 years away from FA anyways. They should be looking to trade him if he keeps up his solid start.

[Bertz]

I feel like Happ is a tough call. With 1.5 years left he's not a long term piece, but he is around next year in a year the team should be competing (in a way that doesn't include any asterisks or air quotes). Although on the flip side he is a pure corner outfielder at this point, and so you probably ought to cash in there if you get a great offer.

 

I'd probably need to be bowled over. No "oh wow he's got some interesting peripherals" type of project, I'd want someone back that I know of off hand and can be immediately be plugged into the lineup. Luis Campusano or someone like that.

[squally1313]

Trading a 27 year old who can play the whole outfield, has another year of control, and is pretty comfortably one of your top 3 offensive bats for a non premier prospect package is a pretty big sign that this isn't some quickie rebuild. 1.9 fWAR in 2020 is a pretty good sign that he can give you more than 2 WAR, and I'd take the over on it this year pretty comfortably. Considering he'll cost like $9m next year, not sure how we're going to fill a roster spot better than him.

[UMFan83]

Trading a 27 year old who can play the whole outfield, has another year of control, and is pretty comfortably one of your top 3 offensive bats for a non premier prospect package is a pretty big sign that this isn't some quickie rebuild. 1.9 fWAR in 2020 is a pretty good sign that he can give you more than 2 WAR, and I'd take the over on it this year pretty comfortably. Considering he'll cost like $9m next year, not sure how we're going to fill a roster spot better than him.

 

I don't think it is a quickie rebuild despite what has been said in the past. This year has a long way to go and time to prove that they're on the right track, but right now it doesn't look like there are a lot of signs that the Cubs have enough pieces in place to feel like they can have a big offseason and compete in 2023. I wouldn't trade him for a non-premier prospect package either but I would in no way consider him untouchable when teams come calling.

[squally1313]

Trading a 27 year old who can play the whole outfield, has another year of control, and is pretty comfortably one of your top 3 offensive bats for a non premier prospect package is a pretty big sign that this isn't some quickie rebuild. 1.9 fWAR in 2020 is a pretty good sign that he can give you more than 2 WAR, and I'd take the over on it this year pretty comfortably. Considering he'll cost like $9m next year, not sure how we're going to fill a roster spot better than him.

 

I don't think it is a quickie rebuild despite what has been said in the past. This year has a long way to go and time to prove that they're on the right track, but right now it doesn't look like there are a lot of signs that the Cubs have enough pieces in place to feel like they can have a big offseason and compete in 2023. I wouldn't trade him for a non-premier prospect package either but I would in no way consider him untouchable when teams come calling.

I just don't think the conversation makes sense right now. He had a really good 2020, but a pretty mediocre 2021, and a month of elite discipline isn't going to bring his profile up that much. What's the concern, that we pass up a middling package and have to settle for a lottery ticket next summer?

 

The Sox blurb already rules out the top three prospects of the worst farm system in baseball. Daz Cameron should probably just be DFAd, Gage Workman had a .302 OBP last year in high A with a 35% K rate and is doing worse this year, Reese Olson has thrown 22 good innings so far this year in AA but has never recorded an ERA before 4 anywhere.

 

If Happ is the one shining gem in a team of garbage from late June (somewhat likely!), and raises his profile enough to get something beyond that, maybe. Obviously he's not 'untouchable', but the potential of what he can give us, and even the baseline of what he already provides, is worth more than what he can get now.

[UMFan83]

Trading a 27 year old who can play the whole outfield, has another year of control, and is pretty comfortably one of your top 3 offensive bats for a non premier prospect package is a pretty big sign that this isn't some quickie rebuild. 1.9 fWAR in 2020 is a pretty good sign that he can give you more than 2 WAR, and I'd take the over on it this year pretty comfortably. Considering he'll cost like $9m next year, not sure how we're going to fill a roster spot better than him.

 

I don't think it is a quickie rebuild despite what has been said in the past. This year has a long way to go and time to prove that they're on the right track, but right now it doesn't look like there are a lot of signs that the Cubs have enough pieces in place to feel like they can have a big offseason and compete in 2023. I wouldn't trade him for a non-premier prospect package either but I would in no way consider him untouchable when teams come calling.

I just don't think the conversation makes sense right now. He had a really good 2020, but a pretty mediocre 2021, and a month of elite discipline isn't going to bring his profile up that much. What's the concern, that we pass up a middling package and have to settle for a lottery ticket next summer?

 

The Sox blurb already rules out the top three prospects of the worst farm system in baseball. Daz Cameron should probably just be DFAd, Gage Workman had a .302 OBP last year in high A with a 35% K rate and is doing worse this year, Reese Olson has thrown 22 good innings so far this year in AA but has never recorded an ERA before 4 anywhere.

 

If Happ is the one shining gem in a team of garbage from late June (somewhat likely!), and raises his profile enough to get something beyond that, maybe. Obviously he's not 'untouchable', but the potential of what he can give us, and even the baseline of what he already provides, is worth more than what he can get now.

 

ok i was responding to the general idea of trading Happ. Do you start extension talks with him after this season then if he continues on his current pace? Or hang onto him and trade him for a small package in 2023 or let him walk after 2023

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Happ is a tough call for me, I'm not sure how I feel about it for now.

 

In the trade column, Happ isn't a high ceiling player and isn't going to fix the biggest barrier between here and playoff contention(starpower). He increasingly is only an every day option at LF, where you might want the flexibility to mine for players who have a more specialized skill set than Happ's jack of all trades fit. He's under 2 years from FA and given his labor involvement and uneven production it feels unlikely an extension is coming, so trading him soon can help maximize his value and prevent talent drain, especially combined with his hot start.

 

On the other side, Happ even at his best is unlikely to bring a prospect with a realistic chance of being higher ceiling than Happ's current production. More importantly, the 2023 Cubs are not close to good enough where I can be comfortable trading present production for future production. With free agent classes getting older and older and the Cubs being so far under where they should be in terms of payroll, it's very possible extending 28/29 year old Happ is the best way to use that money.

 

I think Bertz is on the right track here, it needs to be a return where the potential is unmistakable and/or the impact is immediate. The Padres have several names that have been floated in the past that might fit this bill: Campusano, Gore, Paddack before he was dealt. I'm skeptical Happ has the juice to bring a player like that unless he goes full Adam Frazier until the deadline, and even in that example Frazier did not bring that type of player in trade.

 

The only other way this can make sense is if there's a fairly immediate turnaround in the Cubs' outfield fortunes. Frazier coming back and hitting like a regular, Davis turning it around at AAA and Velazquez joining him and mashing, someone like Ortega or Rivas looking like an every day OF, etc. If you can have reasonable belief in internal options minimizing the downgrade from Happ to alternatives, then you can come out ahead with a slightly less narrow path.

[jersey cubs fan]

I do not understand the hesitation at all. The guy is nothing special, hes peaked as a 2 WAR player in his prime years and this team isn’t close to contending. The roster is so devoid of talent and the organization has shown no inclination to fix it financially. The prospects are all very young. One way or another he probably won’t be on the next great Cubs roster, so you might as well. There isn’t an untouchable guy on the active roster. If the return is middling, then don’t bother, but anything good should be acceptable.

[Outshined_One]

I think Bertz is on the right track here, it needs to be a return where the potential is unmistakable and/or the impact is immediate.

 

I'm actually of a different mindset when it comes to Happ. As mentioned, if you're getting a return for Happ for a higher level prospect, it's likely going to be a guy who might be as good as Happ.

 

I would instead prefer to see if the Cubs could get a handful of lottery tickets for him. If we're trading Happ to, say, the Padres, I'd be totally in favor of the Padres including their Competitive Balance pick along with a player or two from their lower levels. I don't foresee this team's window opening until at least 2024, so I do not see the harm in stocking the farm system at the lower levels to help keep that window open longer than a year or two.

[17 Seconds]

i feel like happ could be on the verge of a breakout, but i've felt that way for years

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think Bertz is on the right track here, it needs to be a return where the potential is unmistakable and/or the impact is immediate.

 

I'm actually of a different mindset when it comes to Happ. As mentioned, if you're getting a return for Happ for a higher level prospect, it's likely going to be a guy who might be as good as Happ.

 

I would instead prefer to see if the Cubs could get a handful of lottery tickets for him. If we're trading Happ to, say, the Padres, I'd be totally in favor of the Padres including their Competitive Balance pick along with a player or two from their lower levels. I don't foresee this team's window opening until at least 2024, so I do not see the harm in stocking the farm system at the lower levels to help keep that window open longer than a year or two.

 

I think if you believe the bolded that's a plenty fair way to look at it, but I don't think that's at all an accurate way to characterize what their competitive timeline is likely to be or ought to be.

[KingCubsFan]

Happ is a useful enough player. He should be treated just like the core guys: offer him a fair extension and if he doesn’t accept, trade him for a flawed but intriguing prospect.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Stay the horsefeathers away from the White Sox

[sneakypower]

I don't foresee this team's window opening until at least 2024, so I do not see the harm in stocking the farm system at the lower levels to help keep that window open longer than a year or two.

 

I think if you believe the bolded that's a plenty fair way to look at it, but I don't think that's at all an accurate way to characterize what their competitive timeline is likely to be or ought to be.

i agree with this as well, 2026 is a safer bet

[UMFan83]

given his labor involvement and uneven production it feels unlikely an extension is coming

 

Just trying to make sure I understand, are you suggesting that Happ likely will not accept a team friendly extension below his potential market value due to his ties to the MLBPA? I think that's what you are saying but wanted to verify. If so, I hadn't thought about that component of it but I guess it makes sense.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

given his labor involvement and uneven production it feels unlikely an extension is coming

 

Just trying to make sure I understand, are you suggesting that Happ likely will not accept a team friendly extension below his potential market value due to his ties to the MLBPA? I think that's what you are saying but wanted to verify. If so, I hadn't thought about that component of it but I guess it makes sense.

 

More or less, I think Happ's labor involvement combined with his inconsistent production means it's less likely they can agree on a pre-FA extension, and that assumes the team is particularly interested in extending Happ, which is at least an open question.

[Outshined_One]

I think if you believe the bolded that's a plenty fair way to look at it, but I don't think that's at all an accurate way to characterize what their competitive timeline is likely to be or ought to be.

 

Engh, a lot of that is subjective. I think the team could be in playoff contention come 2023, but I don't expect that team would be good enough to make the NLCS, barring something insane like Brennan Davis putting up peak Mike Trout numbers. Based purely on their in-house assets, I'm thinking that particular contender window won't open until 2024 at the earliest, and even then, a lot of things would need to go right with player development. Free agency could help accelerate or slow down that process, but my expectations for this team are currently pretty muted for this season and next.

 

I'm okay with trading Happ for that reason. He'd be a really useful guy for any contender, and I think now is as good of a time as any to trade him.

[Cubswin11]

I’m good moving Happ for the right return and probably prefer that vs paying him long term just because the profile is so volatile. If they move him I’d look to at a post hype guy like Adell who the Angels just sent down + and other thing or two vs some lower level/lotto ticket types.

 

As for contention window, there clearly should be a path to “contend” by next year and 2024. Not WS favs or anything but certainly a playoff team. The division sucks (Brewers aren’t special, Cardinals are aging and expensive, Pirates and Reds, well yeah), expanded WC, having capital (money + prospects) to keep adding, etc. Have a few prospects or trades break the right way and spend at least enough, maybe not as much as they should, and crafting a mid 80 win WC team isn’t hard the next two years or even steal a division.