4/7 Brewers (Burnes) v. Cubs (Kyle); 1:20, MSN, MLBN

[Rex Buckingham]

The Cubs have a chance to take 1st place for the first time since June 24 of 2021, after which they lost 11 straight and found themselves 6.5 games out of first.

 

But it's a new year! We have Marcus Stroman (who will start our 3rd game because both he and Kyle are RH and don't throw too hard, I guess)! And Seiya Suzuki - who is actually worth getting excited about!

 

And we still have Kyle, who will hopefully be helped today by cold weather and not give up too many dongs.

 

Go Cubs!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Some things that will be interesting to monitor from a lineup perspective

 

- Are they starting Heyward or is he behind others in the pecking order from the get go?

- How high are they on Frazier, is he getting a LF/DH start against a tough righty when they don't have to?

- Similarly, is Wisdom getting a vote of confidence with the opening day look(especially w/ Villar ramping slowly) or are they going to be more aggressive in platooning?

- How much are they going to try to balance approaches within the lineup? Do they care if there's, for example, a Contreras/Happ/Wisdom corridor of similar styles? Do Hoerner/Madrigal hit higher than their overall production would indicate to give that balance?

[Brian707]

Will this game even be played today?

[JeffH]

14 pitchers, 14 position players for Opening Day.

 

Miley, Mills, and Simmons to the IL.

[OleMissCub]

 

nice of Rossy to protect Suzuki with Heyward :roll:

[Bertz]

Will this game even be played today?

 

Yeah it should. Tomorrow's is probably gonna get banged, but I don't think it's going to do more than sprinkle today

[UMFan83]

Heyward is definitely starting 130+ games this year if he stays healthy. He's Rossy's guy...the kind of benefit you get when you upgrade someone's hotel rooms to suites for every game of their final season.

[OleMissCub]

Heyward is definitely starting 130+ games this year if he stays healthy. He's Rossy's guy...the kind of benefit you get when you upgrade someone's hotel rooms to suites for every game of their final season.

 

o/u his OPS being 700 this year?

[Irrelevant Dude]

Heyward is definitely starting 130+ games this year if he stays healthy. He's Rossy's guy...the kind of benefit you get when you upgrade someone's hotel rooms to suites for every game of their final season.

 

o/u his OPS being 700 this year?

Definitely under.

[Irrelevant Dude]

nice of Rossy to protect Suzuki with Heyward :roll:

I know it isn't surprising that Heyward is starting, but it is still disappointing to purposely handicap the lineup from the start. Rivas at 1B, Schwindel at DH, and Ortega in CF would be a better choice both offensively and defensively.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't know how much this actually plays a part(there was a great article this week about the Giants matchup analysis that is very sophisticated and more like what most teams are doing), but Heyward is 3 for 7 with a BB, 2B, and HR (plus no K's) against Burnes. That's spread out over several years but the most recent was last April and Heyward had a double and a lineout.

 

As with basically all Heyward playing time this year, especially later in the year when Davis is an option and/or Frazier earns an everyday spot in the lineup, they better be right.

[Bertz]

I don't know how much this actually plays a part(there was a great article this week about the Giants matchup analysis that is very sophisticated and more like what most teams are doing), but Heyward is 3 for 7 with a BB, 2B, and HR (plus no K's) against Burnes. That's spread out over several years but the most recent was last April and Heyward had a double and a lineout.

 

As with basically all Heyward playing time this year, especially later in the year when Davis is an option and/or Frazier earns an everyday spot in the lineup, they better be right.

 

Yeah, Heyward is probably going to get the Neifi treatment this year, but a matchup like Burnes is really hard to parse out who the right choice is.

 

I'd have gone with Frazier though knowing what we know

[entbird79]

Will this game even be played today?

 

Waiting for Schwarber Fan to give the official prediction

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't know how much this actually plays a part(there was a great article this week about the Giants matchup analysis that is very sophisticated and more like what most teams are doing), but Heyward is 3 for 7 with a BB, 2B, and HR (plus no K's) against Burnes. That's spread out over several years but the most recent was last April and Heyward had a double and a lineout.

 

As with basically all Heyward playing time this year, especially later in the year when Davis is an option and/or Frazier earns an everyday spot in the lineup, they better be right.

 

Yeah, Heyward is probably going to get the Neifi treatment this year, but a matchup like Burnes is really hard to parse out who the right choice is.

 

I'd have gone with Frazier though knowing what we know

 

I do wonder if their internal defensive modeling thinks much higher of Heyward than public metrics. Public metrics and the eye test think Ortega and Happ are below average in CF, so I can see a path to thinking Heyward is a 10 run improvement defensively that mitigates a fair amount of the offensive gap. Maybe Hermosillo is someone who maybe challenges in that regard, but he's not exactly a sure thing with the bat against RHP either.

[Derwood]

Heyward is definitely starting 130+ games this year if he stays healthy. He's Rossy's guy...the kind of benefit you get when you upgrade someone's hotel rooms to suites for every game of their final season.

 

o/u his OPS being 700 this year?

 

o/u on Heyward having 400 AB's where he rolls his ankle and grounds weakly to 2B?

[CubinNY]

I don't know how much this actually plays a part(there was a great article this week about the Giants matchup analysis that is very sophisticated and more like what most teams are doing), but Heyward is 3 for 7 with a BB, 2B, and HR (plus no K's) against Burnes. That's spread out over several years but the most recent was last April and Heyward had a double and a lineout.

 

As with basically all Heyward playing time this year, especially later in the year when Davis is an option and/or Frazier earns an everyday spot in the lineup, they better be right.

 

Yeah, Heyward is probably going to get the Neifi treatment this year, but a matchup like Burnes is really hard to parse out who the right choice is.

 

I'd have gone with Frazier though knowing what we know

 

I do wonder if their internal defensive modeling thinks much higher of Heyward than public metrics. Public metrics and the eye test think Ortega and Happ are below average in CF, so I can see a path to thinking Heyward is a 10 run improvement defensively that mitigates a fair amount of the offensive gap. Maybe Hermosillo is someone who maybe challenges in that regard, but he's not exactly a sure thing with the bat against RHP either.

A cost/benefit analysis would suggest that the marginal improvement in offense wouldn't mitigate the loss in defense. I can sort of buy that, but 10 runs seem like a lot to me.

[OleMissCub]

Heyward is definitely starting 130+ games this year if he stays healthy. He's Rossy's guy...the kind of benefit you get when you upgrade someone's hotel rooms to suites for every game of their final season.

 

o/u his OPS being 700 this year?

 

o/u on Heyward having 400 AB's where he rolls his ankle and grounds weakly to 2B?

 

under, but not by much

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Yeah, Heyward is probably going to get the Neifi treatment this year, but a matchup like Burnes is really hard to parse out who the right choice is.

 

I'd have gone with Frazier though knowing what we know

 

I do wonder if their internal defensive modeling thinks much higher of Heyward than public metrics. Public metrics and the eye test think Ortega and Happ are below average in CF, so I can see a path to thinking Heyward is a 10 run improvement defensively that mitigates a fair amount of the offensive gap. Maybe Hermosillo is someone who maybe challenges in that regard, but he's not exactly a sure thing with the bat against RHP either.

A cost/benefit analysis would suggest that the marginal improvement in offense wouldn't mitigate the loss in defense. I can sort of buy that, but 10 runs seem like a lot to me.

 

It sounds a lot when framed this way, but if you think of it as above average v. below average it feels more plausible. For example, both UZR and Statcast show Heyward as a +4-5 CF, Happ is between -2 and -5, and Ortega is between -3 and -9. Especially when you add in that team defensive models are supposed to be more robust, if you take those as a starting point you don't have to tweak them a ton to get to a 10 run gap between Heyward and the alternatives.

[chopsx9]

Heyward is definitely starting 130+ games this year if he stays healthy. He's Rossy's guy...the kind of benefit you get when you upgrade someone's hotel rooms to suites for every game of their final season.

 

o/u his OPS being 700 this year?

Definitely under.

1.132 and they resign him for 3 more years.

[Outshined_One]

Will this game even be played today?

 

Yeah it should. Tomorrow's is probably gonna get banged, but I don't think it's going to do more than sprinkle today

 

It'll be one of those miserable "rains enough to make everyone cold and wet, but not enough to postpone" games.

 

I'll be shocked if Wrigley is even at half capacity by the 7th.

[UMFan83]

Will this game even be played today?

 

Yeah it should. Tomorrow's is probably gonna get banged, but I don't think it's going to do more than sprinkle today

 

It'll be one of those miserable "rains enough to make everyone cold and wet, but not enough to postpone" games.

 

I'll be shocked if Wrigley is even at half capacity by the 7th.

 

Brewers fans are already making jokes on Twitter about the game being called because the Cubs cancel games against the Brewers even when its not raining.

[Tim]

Heyward is definitely starting 130+ games this year if he stays healthy. He's Rossy's guy...the kind of benefit you get when you upgrade someone's hotel rooms to suites for every game of their final season.

I know it's fun to be all negative and everything, but once Davis comes up there's no way Heyward is playing that much over Suzuki. So then it becomes a question of LF for Heyward, Ortega, Hermosillo, Happ & Frazier. Heyward won't win that.

[CubinNY]

I was looking at the lineups and that Brewers team is going to have to rely on pitching to win. This division is so winnable if they really wanted to field a competitive team.

[UMFan83]

I was looking at the lineups and that Brewers team is going to have to rely on pitching to win. This division is so winnable if they really wanted to field a competitive team.

 

It's winnable for sure but I'm not sure what to expect from this team. I don't mean that in a negative way, I'm just saying that I could see this team flounder from the start or be surprisingly decent. I think if they can stay within 3 games of a playoff spot by the deadline we'll make some moves and better our chances of making it. As cheap and as stupid as PTR is, I do believe he will open the checkbook at least a bit if there's something to play for.

[OleMissCub]

lol at that dude that sang the anthem