Building around a new Correa? (Signed with the Twins for 3/$105m)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The reaction here is putting a lot of blame on ownership and while I understand the sentiment I don't think that's the limitation.

 

Right now I think the front office has done a good job with raising the floor of the team, and they need stars. Where do star players come from? Here's where the 5+ fWAR players from 2021 came from:

 

Internal(acquired before reaching MLB): 17

MLB trade: 2 (O'Neill, Marte)

Free Agency: 7

 

It is incredibly important to maximize your prospect assets, because the odds are overwhelming in your favor of growing a star over buying one. The Dodgers are first good because they continually get star performances from the farm and player development(Kershaw, Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Urias, Turner, Muncy, Taylor, etc), then great because they spend on top of it(though as previously noted, almost never on QO FA).

 

You might ask "why does this matter when a prime aged star is available in FA?" It matters because 1) Correa would require losing a high 2nd round pick(which the FO values around 20 million) and 2) he signed a contract that eliminates the upside of sacrificing that pick. If Correa is a star, then he opts out after one year(and will generate no pick compensation) for a team that isn't a Correa away from being a title contender. If he isn't a star, then you could've gotten his production in a cheaper and/or longer term package without punting an opportunity at growing a star.

 

You might also ask "why not just give Correa his desired long term contract then?" and that's a fair question. That's what I expected to be the outcome for any team signing him, and while it is interesting that no one decided to do so(not the Dodgers who spent 160M on a 32 y/o 1B, not the Yankees who traded for Aldi-brand Andrelton Simmons, not Houston who wouldn't lose a pick for him) you can do that to get Correa's star upside for the next great Cubs team that makes it worth the pick loss. However, I don't see much indication that this is an ownership limitation. At every stop this offseason, there have been folks certain that the payroll wasn't going to go anywhere because of ownership stinginess. It happened when the payroll was below 100 million and then they signed Stroman. It happened after the lockout and then they signed Suzuki(who multiple reports have Ricketts personally invested in wooing) and 37 pitchers. While I agree some skepticism of spending is deserved, I don't see much reason to believe the team is hitting a payroll ceiling. It's an intentional decision by the front office to not chase a bunch of free agency spending(especially at super-long durations) because they believe that's not a good way to create a consistent winner, especially with the state of the roster to begin the offseason. That's not an infallible truth and there's room to disagree(in the last 5 years 10 teams have more wins than the Cubs, 4 big spenders, 4 small markets, and 2 in between), but if you do then that's an issue with Jed and the front office he built with a GM from Cleveland and a scouting director from Oakland/St. Louis.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I don't have a problem with not going after guys like Correa or any guys with the QO. But I do have an issue with the payroll being this low for this big market team.

 

I think it should be at $200 million, at least. And if you have to give out a few really big one-year contracts to do it and keep the powder dry for future years, that's cool. But go sign Nelson Cruz to be the DH for one year. Go see if Kris Bryant will take a 1-year, $40 million contract or offer Rizzo $22 million for one year even though he's a douche. Yes, maybe it doesn't make sense, but neither does having this type of payroll.

[sneakypower]

[champaignchris]

I don't have a problem with not going after guys like Correa or any guys with the QO. But I do have an issue with the payroll being this low for this big market team.

 

I think it should be at $200 million, at least. And if you have to give out a few really big one-year contracts to do it and keep the powder dry for future years, that's cool. But go sign Nelson Cruz to be the DH for one year. Go see if Kris Bryant will take a 1-year, $40 million contract or offer Rizzo $22 million for one year even though he's a douche. Yes, maybe it doesn't make sense, but neither does having this type of payroll.

 

Right. There’s no particular reason why the Cubs couldn’t have signed a couple more players like maybe Canha and Synergaard, still have a payroll in the $170s, while not materially affecting their future ability to rebuild.

 

Instead, they’re going to lose a winnable division by 7 games while carrying a league average payroll $100 million below the luxury tax threshold.

[SouthSideRyan]

Obviously the money not spent this year will be rolled into future budgets.

[UMFan83]

Obviously the money not spent this year will be rolled into future budgets.

 

Ricketts playing the long game and taking the money saved from the 2012-2014 rebuilds, last years salary dump and rebuild this year, and combining it with the extra revenue from Marquee to having a ridiculous 1 year spending frenzy to win the world series. Gonna have a $500m payroll, book it!

 

Or giving it to a Russian Oligarch, one or the other

[Rob]

Obviously the money not spent this year will be rolled into future budgets.

 

Ricketts playing the long game and taking the money saved from the 2012-2014 rebuilds, last years salary dump and rebuild this year, and combining it with the extra revenue from Marquee to having a ridiculous 1 year spending frenzy to win the world series. Gonna have a $500m payroll, book it!

 

Or giving it to a Russian Oligarch, one or the other

 

Doing the old Marlins play, eh? Acquire all the great players, win the world series, sell off the whole team immediately thereafter.

[Sammy Sofa]

Here's where the 5+ fWAR players from 2021 came from:

 

Internal(acquired before reaching MLB): 17

MLB trade: 2 (O'Neill, Marte)

Free Agency: 7

 

The Cubs are going with the 4th "why bother acquiring one at all?" way.

[Thusly Boned]

Obviously the money not spent this year will be rolled into future budgets.

 

Ricketts playing the long game and taking the money saved from the 2012-2014 rebuilds, last years salary dump and rebuild this year, and combining it with the extra revenue from Marquee to having a ridiculous 1 year spending frenzy to win the world series. Gonna have a $500m payroll, book it!

 

Or giving it to a Russian Oligarch, one or the other

 

Doing the old Marlins play, eh? Acquire all the great players, win the world series, sell off the whole team immediately thereafter.

 

Might have been better selling immediately after, rather than waiting until they were all in decline and/or the shine had come off.

[Bertz]

The reaction here is putting a lot of blame on ownership and while I understand the sentiment I don't think that's the limitation.

 

I believe the Athletic guys also intimated this weekend that there's still some money left in the banana stand. Probably not a crazy amount, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's ~$20M Jed is sitting on (including what he customarily holds back for the deadline). Payroll starting with a 1 instead of a 2 is the biggest problem, and that's surely on PTR. Payroll being ~$175 instead of ~$195 seems to be Jed making choices like you alluded to.

 

While there are obviously shades of gray, Jed basically had three possible paths to take this winter:

 

1. Keep the Powder Dry - This is mostly what Jed did. He completely avoided the QO, he didn't trade a single prospect, and made only two multi-year FA deals. To his credit, Stroman and Suzuki were arguably the two best non-QO free agents available besides Scherzer. He didn't go full Cleveland, which there was some worry about

 

2. Be efficient, but make one or two "uncomfortable" moves - This is the route I wish he had taken. I understand austerity, I'm sympathetic to it, but I think sometimes when you take it too far you're cutting your nose to spite your face. Like if we passed on Trevor Story now just to end up with Dansby Swanson a year from now, a very likely scenario at the moment, that's a failure across whatever time horizon you look at. Similarly we held onto all of our prospects, but how many do we end up having to deal for $0.80 on the dollar next year because we've got a big time 40 man crunch? There are diminishing returns to hoarding assets and I think if we end up being sellers at the deadline again we're gonna see it

 

3. Ball Out - We saw last offseason with the Padres how much damage you can do with a critical mass of good but not quite consensus Top 100 type prospects. Combine that with the funds available and Jed could have really done some damage. Also, given that there's a big gap between the payroll ceiling and the LT level, it's likely that the team could have back loaded deals to fit more talent in this year (the LT looks at average annual salary, while cash flow is cash flow. When there's a divergence there's possibly some opportunity)

 

I never wanted nor expected door #3, but I think another decent sized move on top of what we got was prudent. I know I'm a broken record on this, I really think sitting out the SS fray was a mistake both for 2022 and beyond. Even if you're less panicky about the medium term SS options than I am, Jed could have done a SP trade (especially after Alzolay got hurt), or brought in a LH bat of consequence, or something else and I don't think it would have meaningfully hurt the 2023+ clubs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2. Be efficient, but make one or two "uncomfortable" moves - This is the route I wish he had taken. I understand austerity, I'm sympathetic to it, but I think sometimes when you take it too far you're cutting your nose to spite your face. Like if we passed on Trevor Story now just to end up with Dansby Swanson a year from now, a very likely scenario at the moment, that's a failure across whatever time horizon you look at. Similarly we held onto all of our prospects, but how many do we end up having to deal for $0.80 on the dollar next year because we've got a big time 40 man crunch? There are diminishing returns to hoarding assets and I think if we end up being sellers at the deadline again we're gonna see it

 

In this instance I'd hope he'd learn from what the Dodgers did with Betts and Turner and look to the near-FA trade market. Get a guy early enough that you still get compensation for him(IIRC draft comp for first time FA stays in modified form, just not the penalties if they institute the int'l draft) if an extension doesn't work out but you open a long window to get someone longer term without FA pressures.

[David]

Another season of not watching baseball. It's kind of amazing how fast the Ricketts managed to kill any interest I have left in this team.

 

I don't blame you for feeling this way but there's a lot of interesting storylines to this season despite a likelihood of being a little worse than mediocre.

 

1. Is Suzuki actually a superstar?

2. Brennen Davis call up watch.

3. Is 2021 Schwindel a thing? What if he is?

4. To a lesser extent, same thing but Wisdom.

5. How good is Nick Madrigal? If he can sustain last year he's a valuable piece.

6. Killian call up watch.

7. Not about the big league squad but I'm really excited to see how all these prospects on the precipice of top 100 status do.

8. Nelson Velazquez watch. Maybe a thing?

9. Stroman doing his thing.

 

I'm as disgusted as anybody with this payroll BS and the fact that they passed on a really good player at one of the biggest positions of need in the lineup, but there is a lot I'm looking forward to seeing this year.

[UK]

Another season of not watching baseball. It's kind of amazing how fast the Ricketts managed to kill any interest I have left in this team.

 

I don't blame you for feeling this way but there's a lot of interesting storylines to this season despite a likelihood of being a little worse than mediocre.

 

1. Is Suzuki actually a superstar?

2. Brennen Davis call up watch.

3. Is 2021 Schwindel a thing? What if he is?

4. To a lesser extent, same thing but Wisdom.

5. How good is Nick Madrigal? If he can sustain last year he's a valuable piece.

6. Killian call up watch.

7. Not about the big league squad but I'm really excited to see how all these prospects on the precipice of top 100 status do.

8. Nelson Velazquez watch. Maybe a thing?

9. Stroman doing his thing.

 

I'm as disgusted as anybody with this payroll BS and the fact that they passed on a really good player at one of the biggest positions of need in the lineup, but there is a lot I'm looking forward to seeing this year.

 

Unfortunately, none of the 9 things you mentioned involved wins.

[David]

I mean if the answer to some of those is yes, which is very much a non zero thing, you don't have to squint too hard to see a surprise high 80s or so winner, which could win this division. Also, the Reds.

[UK]

I mean if the answer to some of those is yes, which is very much a non zero thing, you don't have to squint too hard to see a surprise high 80s or so winner, which could win this division. Also, the Reds.

 

I have to admit I'm pretty downtrodden about this team from ownership to the state of the farm but it would take something like we seen in 2001 but there's no Sosa or Lieber as far as a sub-par talented team pretending to contend.

[UMFan83]

Another season of not watching baseball. It's kind of amazing how fast the Ricketts managed to kill any interest I have left in this team.

 

I don't blame you for feeling this way but there's a lot of interesting storylines to this season despite a likelihood of being a little worse than mediocre.

 

1. Is Suzuki actually a superstar?

2. Brennen Davis call up watch.

3. Is 2021 Schwindel a thing? What if he is?

4. To a lesser extent, same thing but Wisdom.

5. How good is Nick Madrigal? If he can sustain last year he's a valuable piece.

6. Killian call up watch.

7. Not about the big league squad but I'm really excited to see how all these prospects on the precipice of top 100 status do.

8. Nelson Velazquez watch. Maybe a thing?

9. Stroman doing his thing.

 

I'm as disgusted as anybody with this payroll BS and the fact that they passed on a really good player at one of the biggest positions of need in the lineup, but there is a lot I'm looking forward to seeing this year.

 

I’m with you. I’m very disillusioned but I’m still going to watch and follow the team. Don’t think I’ll go out of my way to go to any games but there enough interesting storylines to bring me a little excitement but I could change my tune quickly if the team looks terrible. Still storylines to follow but I’ll just read about them on here

[Bertz]

Another season of not watching baseball. It's kind of amazing how fast the Ricketts managed to kill any interest I have left in this team.

 

I don't blame you for feeling this way but there's a lot of interesting storylines to this season despite a likelihood of being a little worse than mediocre.

 

1. Is Suzuki actually a superstar?

2. Brennen Davis call up watch.

3. Is 2021 Schwindel a thing? What if he is?

4. To a lesser extent, same thing but Wisdom.

5. How good is Nick Madrigal? If he can sustain last year he's a valuable piece.

6. Killian call up watch.

7. Not about the big league squad but I'm really excited to see how all these prospects on the precipice of top 100 status do.

8. Nelson Velazquez watch. Maybe a thing?

9. Stroman doing his thing.

 

I'm as disgusted as anybody with this payroll BS and the fact that they passed on a really good player at one of the biggest positions of need in the lineup, but there is a lot I'm looking forward to seeing this year.

 

I've got two more for you, as this *should* be the year the revamped pitching development infrastructure starts paying off.

 

10. Which member(s) of the loaded AA rotation (Marquez, Jensen, Espinoza, Vizcaino, Bain) get up to the bigs in the second half? You should not assume a talented guy opening the year in AA makes the majors. Odds are however between five talented guys opening the year in AA, at least one makes the majors

 

11. The absolute gas that will be coming out of the pen in the second half. We already saw Manny Rodriguez and his 97 MPH sinker debut late last year. There's also spin god Ethan Roberts, Brendon Little regularly bumping 97 from the left side, and Ben Leeper who sits 98. And those 5 starters opening the year at Tenn? Each sit mid 90s as starters, so if they break into MLB via the pen they'll be threatening 100

[Tim]

I mean if the answer to some of those is yes, which is very much a non zero thing, you don't have to squint too hard to see a surprise high 80s or so winner, which could win this division. Also, the Reds.

 

I have to admit I'm pretty downtrodden about this team from ownership to the state of the farm but it would take something like we seen in 2001 but there's no Sosa or Lieber as far as a sub-par talented team pretending to contend.

You're disillusioned about the state of the farm?

[jersey cubs fan]

Another season of not watching baseball. It's kind of amazing how fast the Ricketts managed to kill any interest I have left in this team.

 

I don't blame you for feeling this way but there's a lot of interesting storylines to this season despite a likelihood of being a little worse than mediocre.

 

1. Is Suzuki actually a superstar?

2. Brennen Davis call up watch.

3. Is 2021 Schwindel a thing? What if he is?

4. To a lesser extent, same thing but Wisdom.

5. How good is Nick Madrigal? If he can sustain last year he's a valuable piece.

6. Killian call up watch.

7. Not about the big league squad but I'm really excited to see how all these prospects on the precipice of top 100 status do.

8. Nelson Velazquez watch. Maybe a thing?

9. Stroman doing his thing.

 

I'm as disgusted as anybody with this payroll BS and the fact that they passed on a really good player at one of the biggest positions of need in the lineup, but there is a lot I'm looking forward to seeing this year.

None of those strikethrough notes are uniquely interesting storylines a Cubs fan should care about. They are mundane things all teams have every year, completely interchangeable storylines. The others aren't particularly relevant to watching the Cubs over the course of a regular season. It's a completely boring team with a couple interesting names that may or may not be a part of the team the next time this team is worth paying attention to.

[jersey cubs fan]

I mean if the answer to some of those is yes, which is very much a non zero thing, you don't have to squint too hard to see a surprise high 80s or so winner, which could win this division. Also, the Reds.

 

I have to admit I'm pretty downtrodden about this team from ownership to the state of the farm but it would take something like we seen in 2001 but there's no Sosa or Lieber as far as a sub-par talented team pretending to contend.

You're disillusioned about the state of the farm?

Is it not a very deep farm with very few high end pieces? This isn't some top 5 system or anything, and if you are a rich team that sucks you better have a high end farm system. Maybe disillusioned is a strong word, but when you have to hang your hat on the farm part of your organization, it should be better that what the Cubs have.

[Sammy Sofa]

Is it even a top 10 system? Someone do the work for me and show me the rankings that matter.

[Bertz]

Is it even a top 10 system? Someone do the work for me and show me the rankings that matter.

 

Fangraphs had it at #7 post deadline last year, and their individual player grades got a little stronger over the offseason (but they haven't finished other teams so no new rankings yet).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/physical-attributes?sort=-1,1&type=4&filter=&pos=&team=

 

They're the high mark, everyone else is largely in the teens. Basically the talent is probably in line with last time, but aside from Davis all the funnest pieces have still yet to play in full season ball. So it's an eye of the beholder thing with how you weight talent vs. proximity. Pretty much everyone thinks it'll be a consensustop 3-5 system next year even after graduating Davis.

[sneakypower]

some impressive cope to reason, it's ok that we're punting needlessly because we gotta wait 3 years for our #16 farm to come kick ass

[squally1313]

Is it even a top 10 system? Someone do the work for me and show me the rankings that matter.

They're the high mark, everyone else is largely in the teens.

 

So....no.

[Tim]

Meh on the rankings. There's a whole bunch of talent on the farm, but it is at a low enough level that the rankings don't show it yet. When you get past the number and read the comments about the system, pretty much everyone thinks the farm will be very strong in another year.