Building around a new Correa? (Signed with the Twins for 3/$105m)

[We Got The Whole 9]

 

This is the guy that does Cubs broadcasts for Univision. The gist is that the Cubs and Yankees have had the most fluid and productive conversations with Correa. Also of note is Correa called Javy to ask about their treatment of players.

 

horsefeathers it. We've got 3 months to wax wishful, right?

[UMFan83]

I wonder what Javy would say privately about the Cubs organization. Not saying he would trash us (or praise us) necessarily.

[Derwood]

I wonder what Javy would say privately about the Cubs organization. Not saying he would trash us (or praise us) necessarily.

 

I think we're safe, as he didn't know any of the names of the people who wronged him

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Then he called someone from New York who laid on his horn and told him to go horsefeathers himself.

[Bertz]

They *really* need to do this. And if Jed falls short on Correa he damn sure needs to come away with Story.

 

1. Financial flexibility isn't an issue. I'm generally more sympathetic to this type of argument than most (from the GMs POV not the owners, obviously), but it's not a contributor here. If you add Correa at $35M per, current payroll is still south of opening day last year. Next year's payroll at the start of the offseason would be a modest ~$160M, and the team would rank 12th in the league on dollars committed to '24, and 11th in dollars committed to '25

 

2. Next year's FA class sucks. There's a couple of superstars who are definitely getting extended (Judge, Turner, deGrom), a couple of superstars on team options (meaning they only hit FA if this year goes terribly), a decent number of 3 WAR SPs and OFers, and Xander Bogaerts. So your next 9 figure contract probably needs to come now or wait for the offseason prior to '24

 

3. There's nothing in the org at SS anywhere close to MLB. Nico Hoerner and Chris Morel are both fringey defensive shortstops. The next closest SS of note to MLB is Kevin Made, the 18 year old who OPS'd .662 in A Ball this year (that's great for an 18 year old! He's not clearly knocking on the door)

 

4. The pitching staff is very groundball heavy, and that seems unlikely to change any time soon. So SS defense is going to be a priority for the team for several years at least

[Tim]

I want this one bad too as FAs go but, ftr, a .662 OPS in A ball is not great even with “for a” catches in there. It’s really not even good tbh, would need much more info to move in that direction

 

But yeah, a player like this is worthwhile regardless of prospects and the Cubs are (at least) a year out from seeing who can really really hang over just like passing a lower minors level

You still like Howard.

[JeffH]

I want this one bad too as FAs go but, ftr, a .662 OPS in A ball is not great even with “for a” catches in there. It’s really not even good tbh, would need much more info to move in that direction

 

But yeah, a player like this is worthwhile regardless of prospects and the Cubs are (at least) a year out from seeing who can really really hang over just like passing a lower minors level

You still like Howard.

 

Performance doesn't matter if you have pedigree. Pay attention.

[Tim]

You still like Howard.

 

Yep, but that doesn’t somehow improve anyone else’s profile does it?

Nah.

 

We all have our guys we get fixated upon.

[Gilby]

I don't have an Athletic subscription but that Mooney headline going around seems like he might be hearing different things than he was a few weeks ago. He was pretty adamant there'd be no long term deals.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't have an Athletic subscription but that Mooney headline going around seems like he might be hearing different things than he was a few weeks ago. He was pretty adamant there'd be no long term deals.

 

I was disappointed in the lack of substance. It spent most of the article talking about how the Stroman deal fit their needs and bookended it with essentially "maybe they'll go after Correa too, who's to say"

[Bertz]

I don't have an Athletic subscription but that Mooney headline going around seems like he might be hearing different things than he was a few weeks ago. He was pretty adamant there'd be no long term deals.

 

I was disappointed in the lack of substance. It spent most of the article talking about how the Stroman deal fit their needs and bookended it with essentially "maybe they'll go after Correa too, who's to say"

 

It's so frustrating that for the first time, maybe ever, the team has multiple very good beat writers yet the two who actually sometimes get scoops (Mooney and Rogers) are by far the worst at the day to day.

[UMFan83]

BN breaks down why the Cubs are probably going hard after Correa. Big one is that they just acquired Stroman and Miley to go with Hendricks, 3 pitchers that rely on ground balls and in general balls in play. The Cubs IF defense is not exactly built for ground ball pitchers at all. Instead of Rizzo you have Schwindel. Instead of Hoerner (at 2B) you have Madrigal, instead of Javy at SS you have Hoerner. Jed has all the opportunity in the world to carefully plan his 'next great Cubs team" and while next year isn't a must win year, if you are targeting ground ball pitchers, part of the plan has to be putting them in the best position to be successful with a good defensive IF, right?

 

I mean its possible Miley was too good to pass up on waivers and Jed misread the market and missed out on Ray and Syndergaard so he went after Stroman who didn't have a QO attached to him, and he will figure out the rest on the fly. But I choose to think Jed is a little more calculated than that.

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/12/03/the-cubs-and-carlos-correa-chatter-figures-to-pick-up-during-the-lockout-from-the-outside-at-least/

[Bertz]

Reading the Fangraphs top prospects list reaffirms to me this should happen.

 

Conventional wisdom for the best time to sign a mega deal is when you've got a critical mass of prospects either about to or having just broken into MLB. The Cubs did both last go around, bookending 2015 with Lester and Heyward.

 

Even though Fangraphs paints a pretty rosey picture of the Cubs' minor league system, there's not a near term wave of prospects coming. The cohort of guys opening next year at Low A South Bend looks really impactful, but it's still a half dozen teenagers 3-4 years from the majors. There's still plenty of talent ahead of those guys in the pipeline, but it's not gonna be the deluge like late 2014/early 2015.

 

But financially, that might actually make taking the leap more palatable? One of the problems with the last core was that the homegrown guys were all on the exact same timeline, which meant they were getting expensive all at once. On top of that, Lester and Heyward's contracts were similarly timed, so as they got older and worse, the homegrown guys got older and more expensive (and aside from Javy, worse). Because of that, after the spending spree in 2018, the team was pretty locked into a corner contract wise. And with a miserly owner refusing to lift his self imposed payroll cap, we saw what happened.

 

A mega deal now would hit differently. Like I laid out above, the team's contractual outlook would still be pretty clean for the next 3-4 years. After that depends on a lot of unknowns, but if a few of those teens on the farm are the goods you've got an infusion of high end talent hitting the MLB club on the cheap right as Correa's deal is moving into its back half. That's a great way to blunt even the most albatross-y of contracts.

 

If next year's FA class were better I'd probably say to hold off and focus on short term deals the rest of this winter, but I feel like Jed ought to take this shot in the next year or so. And with Correa's market being fairly small this is probably the best opportunity to nab a high impact guy.

[David]

Reading the Fangraphs top prospects list reaffirms to me this should happen.

 

Conventional wisdom for the best time to sign a mega deal is when you've got a critical mass of prospects either about to or having just broken into MLB. The Cubs did both last go around, bookending 2015 with Lester and Heyward.

 

Even though Fangraphs paints a pretty rosey picture of the Cubs' minor league system, there's not a near term wave of prospects coming. The cohort of guys opening next year at Low A South Bend looks really impactful, but it's still a half dozen teenagers 3-4 years from the majors. There's still plenty of talent ahead of those guys in the pipeline, but it's not gonna be the deluge like late 2014/early 2015.

 

But financially, that might actually make taking the leap more palatable? One of the problems with the last core was that the homegrown guys were all on the exact same timeline, which meant they were getting expensive all at once. On top of that, Lester and Heyward's contracts were similarly timed, so as they got older and worse, the homegrown guys got older and more expensive (and aside from Javy, worse). Because of that, after the spending spree in 2018, the team was pretty locked into a corner contract wise. And with a miserly owner refusing to lift his self imposed payroll cap, we saw what happened.

 

A mega deal now would hit differently. Like I laid out above, the team's contractual outlook would still be pretty clean for the next 3-4 years. After that depends on a lot of unknowns, but if a few of those teens on the farm are the goods you've got an infusion of high end talent hitting the MLB club on the cheap right as Correa's deal is moving into its back half. That's a great way to blunt even the most albatross-y of contracts.

 

If next year's FA class were better I'd probably say to hold off and focus on short term deals the rest of this winter, but I feel like Jed ought to take this shot in the next year or so. And with Correa's market being fairly small this is probably the best opportunity to nab a high impact guy.

 

I don't think it's any secret that it makes a ton of sense - to the point where I wouldn't even be a little bit shocked if it happened (but damn excited).

 

horsefeathers, I almost expect it. I don't, but for all the reasons you laid out (plus the fact that we have a pitching staff - and just signed a guy to pretty decent money - that would really benefit from an elite defensive SS) it just seems to line up too right (obvious caveat, signing a superstar in his 20s makes sense for just about every team).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It really comes down to how averse they are to the years. On the negative side of the coin, you have the beat writers saying that going to 5 years is a huge bridge to cross for this FO, never mind potentially 7-10 like Correa may command. You have new blood in the FO that mostly cut their teeth in restrained if not outright stingy organizations. It's always easier to talk yourself out of a signing from a numerical perspective, and Correa only needs one other suitor to decide they must have him and make it happen. If payroll isn't bouncing back to near pre-covid norms quickly there may also be some AAV restraints in the short term, especially given there's a few other role players this team should add. The draft pick/pool price is non-trivial on top.

 

On the other hand, going to 5 years for 30 year old pitchers is very different than a 27 year old shortstop, especially when that SS fits a huge need and has a skillset that should allow for impact performance even after a position change(to a position where there's no current long term solution). For as inefficient as that spending can be, the remaining FA targets and likely future FA classes(especially next year's) aren't exactly winning you $/WAR titles, and the org has no long term money committed.

 

The pessimist's take here is they're being opportunistic that the CBA somehow kills his market and there's a creative deal left for a big market team with lots to spend still, and we're basically hoping for about 5 consecutive unlikely things to happen in order to land Correa.

 

The optimist's take is Stroman clearly indicates willingness to use financial muscle, and Correa is uniquely suited to be a good option for this team at this point in time, so they'll make sure the CBA doesn't dramatically change the calculus and if not go after him as target #1 and head into next season a fringe playoff contender.

[David]

[UMFan83]

 

"We tried really hard"

 

It says Correa wants a contract like Seager's (10/$325). The Cubs don't want to go to 10 years and are more concerned with years than AAV. So maybe 8/$300 which is 37.5m aav instead of 32.5?

[Cubswin11]

Levine seems to be one of the more connected guys so I take this as mostly a good, and true, thing we seem to be pretty serious about Correa. The difference between 8 and 10 years seems pretty nominal when talking about a contract of this scale, if we’re that serious and he wants to be here I’d think they can figure something out. Also with the SP profile it makes so much sense to sign one of the best defensive SS in baseball.

[Splendid Splinter]

Plus you always could front load it a little bit the first 3-4 years and give him an opt out then, but also be able to say that you gave him his 10 yr/300+ mil asking price.

[Cubswin11]

Plus you always could front load it a little bit the first 3-4 years and give him an opt out then, but also be able to say that you gave him his 10 yr/300+ mil asking price.

Yeah front load it and give an opt out in his age 30 year makes sense

[Bertz]

Given Correa's age, I'd think he may prefer 8 years as well? 8 years puts him back on the FA market heading into his age 35 season. If he's still good he could get a three-four year deal. Heading into age 37 you're making out at two years.

 

$8/300 would give him, I believe, the highest AAV for a position player in baseball. He may want to chase the highest total dollars but the shorter deal doesn't seem totally silly?

[David]

 

[Cubswin11]

Correa, Conforto, Seager and some sort of RHH OF capable of playing CF (Davis up by mid season) while trading Happ for some pitching (Merrill Kelly or something maybe) and bring Chafin back and call it an offseason.

[Gilby]

Kaplan has said on his Cubs-whatever-it's-called podcast with Wittenmeyer a couple times recently that the Cubs were seriously involved with Corey Seager. Another sign they're not completely sitting out the top SS market. Obviously though he didn't sign here for a reason and could also be another signal that years is going to be a holdup.

 

Also, I know it's generally assumed by writers/sites/internet places that Correa was the #1 FA at the start of the off-season but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual "industry" or whatever values Seager a little more given he's a better and left handed hitter, and the Astros cheating stuff. I'd mention Correa's apparent back concerns but Seager has had his share of injuries as well. No doubt, in Correa's favor, there's a defensive gap. Either way, I have some doubts the top bidder will be over $325 million, let alone the $350 million territory.

[Cubswin11]

Do it Cubs