Jed Speak

[UMFan83]

Was updating this in the Offseason Tread but screw it, we had a Theo Speak thread so here is the Jed Speak thread

 

Jed's giving his EOY press conference:

 

 

Wow getting rid of Borzello?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/crawlyscubs/status/1445782424793845760

 

https://twitter.com/Michael_Cerami/status/1445781965781700614

 

https://twitter.com/crawlyscubs/status/1445782941016084492

 

https://twitter.com/crawlyscubs/status/1445784290210435089

 

https://twitter.com/crawlyscubs/status/1445784857196392454

[Cubswin11]

 

 

[Sammy Sofa]

[sweetpeteman]

 

 

 

He does exactly what the front office wants no matter how dumb it is

[Outshined_One]

I'm guessing this means we likely won't be seeing the Cubs meaningfully pursue Baez, Rizzo, or Bryant in the offseason...or any other top of the line free agent, for that matter.

 

Based on the team's current composition and Jed's comments, I do anticipate this team being active in the offseason, but more in the mid-range/bargain bin area. However, I don't see this team being meaningfully competitive next year without at least adding a top of the rotation starter, which means I'm probably not going to be too thrilled with this team come Opening Day 2022.

[Tim]

I'm guessing this means we likely won't be seeing the Cubs meaningfully pursue Baez, Rizzo, or Bryant in the offseason...or any other top of the line free agent, for that matter.

 

Based on the team's current composition and Jed's comments, I do anticipate this team being active in the offseason, but more in the mid-range/bargain bin area. However, I don't see this team being meaningfully competitive next year without at least adding a top of the rotation starter, which means I'm probably not going to be too thrilled with this team come Opening Day 2022.

Very fair not to be trilled on Opening Day. However, nobody expected Gausman, Ray & Rodon to be Cy Young candidates this year, either. I'm hoping for a guy that is a high probability effective starter, but then I'm hoping for a couple of upside plays, too.

[Bertz]

I mean, haven't they been cagey about finances basically every offseason except 2014-2015? Like that's part of their deal. In the Hendry era he'd let Kaplan know where the line is, Jed (and Theo) sees that as a competitive disadvantage.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I mean, haven't they been cagey about finances basically every offseason except 2014-2015? Like that's part of their deal. In the Hendry era he'd let Kaplan know where the line is, Jed (and Theo) sees that as a competitive disadvantage.

 

Yes, and I would guess that goes doubly so heading into an offseason where they don't really know what the rules will be.

 

The other part of this that is the main tension of the offseason is that the Giants and Rays comment isn't wrong! Free agency has never been a worse deal(especially below the superstar/mega-contract line) and it's never been easier to DIY your way to good players(note: not "it's easy", but "it's never been less difficult"). So if the new CBA's environment is similar to what is in place now, the path to getting better(especially for multiple seasons) does not really run through free agency.

 

That's a problem! One because the owners made it this way and it leads to all sorts of perverse incentives. The problem more specific to the Cubs is that even if they aren't running a 170 million payroll, money is the one thing they have a surplus of to make the team better. You can take on contracts in trades but at a certain point you have to deal with that misalignment. If the below the surface point is "free agency is a bad deal and we don't think dollars spent will correlate with how much we can improve the team", I think that's true(again, given the current CBA) and mostly fine. If the below the surface point is "free agency is an extra bad deal when you have no plans to compete before 2025 so you might as well not spend and hunt for long term diamonds", that's where I'm gonna get aggravated.

[sneakypower]

trying to do what the Rays and Giants did is a really cool and novel idea until you think about it for precisely one second and remember oh yeah we tried to do what the Rays and Giants did and that simply became Trevor Williams and Zach Davies and Jake Arrieta conducting personal HR derbys

[sneakypower]

when you sign Eric Sogard as your big-ticket acquisition, nobody will think that you have "won the off-season", which, is a good thing, i am told, by the GM

[Transmogrified Tiger]

trying to do what the Rays and Giants did is a really cool and novel idea until you think about it for precisely one second and remember oh yeah we tried to do what the Rays and Giants did and that simply became Trevor Williams and Zach Davies and Jake Arrieta conducting personal HR derbys

 

This past year's market is not going to be a great comparison point for obvious reasons, but looking at the ESPN FA tracker, only 10 SP got more AAV in free agency than Arrieta. 2 were very good in a full season(Morton, Ray), 2 were very good in half a season(Bauer, Kluber), and of the remaining 6 the only one who exceeded 1 fWAR was Mike Minor and his 5.05 ERA. Trevor Williams had 1.2 fWAR in 91 IP. This is the point, the unspoken inference to 'if only they weren't so cheap' is that they'd have done better if they had just spent more money, when the guys further up the ladder are a pretty big minefield themselves.

[champaignchris]

trying to do what the Rays and Giants did is a really cool and novel idea until you think about it for precisely one second and remember oh yeah we tried to do what the Rays and Giants did and that simply became Trevor Williams and Zach Davies and Jake Arrieta conducting personal HR derbys

 

This past year's market is not going to be a great comparison point for obvious reasons, but looking at the ESPN FA tracker, only 10 SP got more AAV in free agency than Arrieta. 2 were very good in a full season(Morton, Ray), 2 were very good in half a season(Bauer, Kluber), and of the remaining 6 the only one who exceeded 1 fWAR was Mike Minor and his 5.05 ERA. Trevor Williams had 1.2 fWAR in 91 IP. This is the point, the unspoken inference to 'if only they weren't so cheap' is that they'd have done better if they had just spent more money, when the guys further up the ladder are a pretty big minefield themselves.

 

Arguably, the crappy starting pitching free agent market last winter should have led to the Cubs getting more for Darvish. Although now I’m pretty sure the Padres would happily take Caissie and Preciado back in exchange for getting out from under the remainder of Darvish’s contract.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Jed Speak. I No Listen.

[Old Style]

Jed Speak. I No Listen.

The only Jed I listen to.

 

[sneakypower]

trying to do what the Rays and Giants did is a really cool and novel idea until you think about it for precisely one second and remember oh yeah we tried to do what the Rays and Giants did and that simply became Trevor Williams and Zach Davies and Jake Arrieta conducting personal HR derbys

 

This past year's market is not going to be a great comparison point for obvious reasons, but looking at the ESPN FA tracker, only 10 SP got more AAV in free agency than Arrieta. 2 were very good in a full season(Morton, Ray), 2 were very good in half a season(Bauer, Kluber), and of the remaining 6 the only one who exceeded 1 fWAR was Mike Minor and his 5.05 ERA. Trevor Williams had 1.2 fWAR in 91 IP. This is the point, the unspoken inference to 'if only they weren't so cheap' is that they'd have done better if they had just spent more money, when the guys further up the ladder are a pretty big minefield themselves.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

trying to do what the Rays and Giants did is a really cool and novel idea until you think about it for precisely one second and remember oh yeah we tried to do what the Rays and Giants did and that simply became Trevor Williams and Zach Davies and Jake Arrieta conducting personal HR derbys

 

This past year's market is not going to be a great comparison point for obvious reasons, but looking at the ESPN FA tracker, only 10 SP got more AAV in free agency than Arrieta. 2 were very good in a full season(Morton, Ray), 2 were very good in half a season(Bauer, Kluber), and of the remaining 6 the only one who exceeded 1 fWAR was Mike Minor and his 5.05 ERA. Trevor Williams had 1.2 fWAR in 91 IP. This is the point, the unspoken inference to 'if only they weren't so cheap' is that they'd have done better if they had just spent more money, when the guys further up the ladder are a pretty big minefield themselves.

 

This is tedious. The lesson is not 'nothing matters, don't try', it's that what matters is the team gets good players, whether they spend 1 dollar or 100 million to get them. Spending more on an individual player has never been less correlated with that player's success. They need to use their financial muscle if they're going to get better quickly, but you need to be able to separate distaste for the system ownership is responsible for from the best decisions to have a winning team within that system too.

[sneakypower]

when they openly aspire to specifically replicate the successes of the Rays or Giants, instead of Dodgers/Yankees for example, they are pretty explicitly suggesting that the budget will remain artificially restricted and we as fans can fairly realize that their recent total failure to build from within or actually hit on any budget FAs portends pretty certain doom for the next couple seasons, at the very least

 

this team is currently so devoid of upper-levels talent that 'winning the offseason' is the bare minimum precursor for any kind of relevance in the near future

[Transmogrified Tiger]

when they openly aspire to specifically replicate the successes of the Rays or Giants, instead of Dodgers/Yankees for example, they are pretty explicitly suggesting that the budget will remain artificially restricted and we as fans can fairly realize that their recent total failure to build from within or actually hit on any budget FAs portends pretty certain doom for the next couple seasons, at the very least

 

this team is currently so devoid of upper-levels talent that 'winning the offseason' is the bare minimum precursor for any kind of relevance in the near future

 

Yes in a literal sense they have to 'win the offseason', Jed's point is that the teams that actually did win the offseason didn't do it by spending the most or having the most public praise for their acquisitions, which is 1) true and 2) useful for his purposes of setting expectations about the Cubs offseason regardless of if they up the payroll by 15 million or 150 million. Having a Dodgers/Yankees payroll would give them more margin for error, but ultimately if you don't trust the front office to build a winning roster with a sub-200 million payroll, then the headline is you don't think they're up for the job(not an indefensible position) since you can't spend your way past incompetence into repeat championship contention.

[sneakypower]

the teams that actually did win the offseason didn't do it by spending the most or having the most public praise for their acquisitions, which is 1) true

..it is?

 

teams that paid money for proven talent last winter seemed to somehow do pretty well generally, in spite of their lack of restraint

 

[attachment=0]Capture.PNG[/attachment]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

the teams that actually did win the offseason didn't do it by spending the most or having the most public praise for their acquisitions, which is 1) true

..it is?

 

teams that paid money for proven talent last winter seemed to somehow do pretty well generally, in spite of their lack of restraint

 

[attachment=0]Capture.PNG[/attachment]

 

As with the previous comparison, the pandemic offseason makes this not a great illustration, and counting dollars committed instead of say AAV added isn't ideal, but yes. The Jays got phenomenal value for their spending, and Realmuto was great for the Phillies, but for others it was far more mixed. The Yankees got great value for a half season from Kluber but most of their spend is to have LeMahieu be the 17th best 2B. Similarly, the Braves got great value for Morton but most of those dollars were for Ozuna to be below replacement until he wasn't allowed to play due to legal trouble. Most of the Mets spend was to get less than 2 wins combined from McCann and Walker. And maybe most importantly, if the Cubs even have a 125 million payroll(a 20 million drop from this year!), they'd be spending to the level that they'd almost certainly show fairly high on a list like this, so the extent of the opportunity being missed is really for the select few getting mega contracts. The Klubers and Mortons and Rays of the world didn't sign deals beyond the '22 Cubs price range.

[Sammy Sofa]

Personally I don't give a horsefeathers how much we have to squint to see how those teams technically worked out; sneaky's point, IMO, is that the Cubs didn't even try to put themselves in the position where we could be like, "uhm, actually, they spent on the money on X, but it was actually B, C and D that worked out that pushed them over!" Like, they didn't even bother to get X, AND B, C and D didn't work out, so there you go: baseball hell. This can't possibly be the place anyone here 5 years ago thought the Cubs would be at this point.

[CubinNY]

Was updating this in the Offseason Tread but screw it, we had a Theo Speak thread so here is the Jed Speak thread

 

Jed's giving his EOY press conference:

 

Hoyer sounds a lot like our old pal Jim Hendry. I'm waiting for the, "compete within the division" quote.

[illiniguy]

I really think that Jed is in jeopardy here. Tom really didn't want a complete rebuild, at least he said he didn't, I am sure Jed tried to sell him on threading the needle on not a a full rebuild. However, I am not sure there is anyway around it after this trade deadline. I guess time will tell, but I don't think Jed is here in three years.

[Rob]

Was updating this in the Offseason Tread but screw it, we had a Theo Speak thread so here is the Jed Speak thread

 

Jed's giving his EOY press conference:

 

Hoyer sounds a lot like our old pal Jim Hendry. I'm waiting for the, "compete within the division" quote.

 

I mean, if the owners get the expanded playoffs they want, competing within the division honestly looks more and more like the "right" decision from their perspective..

 

If only the best teams are making the playoffs, then it makes sense to try to be the best team.

 

But if half the league gets to play postseason baseball, the financial sweet spot is aiming just above the midpoint and hoping your team gets hot at the right time and you can ride that to a world series victory and that sweet, sweet, playoff money.

[muntjack]

Expanded playoffs might be the death blow for me.