2021 Offseason Thread

[TarzanJoeWallis]

 

Back to back someday. Just not with the Cubs.

[Derwood]

 

He ended up on the Mariners in my MLB: The Show game, so my money is on that

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think for me the concern is that the top and middle tiers of SP are going to be largely picked clean by the end of the day. And during Jed's postseason presser, he most explicitly name checked SP as the area for improvement. I don't have a problem going cheap at SP if it means we're going big elsewhere, but given all that's been put out there if we go cheap at SP how likely should we really think it is that we're going big elsewhere? Jed doesn't tell us everything, but he's not some douchebag like Matt Nagy who tries to play 5D chess with every media discussion.

 

I would even go so far as to say that I'm not even cataclysmically worried about spending money on FA in general, with rare exceptions it's a bunch of post-prime guys wanting really long commitments. But at the same time, one of the main assets you have for improving the team quickly is money, and you have to get pretty creative to use that money if you're not spending a big chunk of it in FA(whether that's 30M for 1 guy or 10M for 3). I'm all for creativity, but it's a narrow needle to thread when you don't know what the rules/motivations/timelines are going to be coming out of the CBA.

[Bertz]

I think for me the concern is that the top and middle tiers of SP are going to be largely picked clean by the end of the day. And during Jed's postseason presser, he most explicitly name checked SP as the area for improvement. I don't have a problem going cheap at SP if it means we're going big elsewhere, but given all that's been put out there if we go cheap at SP how likely should we really think it is that we're going big elsewhere? Jed doesn't tell us everything, but he's not some douchebag like Matt Nagy who tries to play 5D chess with every media discussion.

 

I would even go so far as to say that I'm not even cataclysmically worried about spending money on FA in general, with rare exceptions it's a bunch of post-prime guys wanting really long commitments. But at the same time, one of the main assets you have for improving the team quickly is money, and you have to get pretty creative to use that money if you're not spending a big chunk of it in FA(whether that's 30M for 1 guy or 10M for 3). I'm all for creativity, but it's a narrow needle to thread when you don't know what the rules/motivations/timelines are going to be coming out of the CBA.

 

Exactly. Like I'm not asking for Correa, Freeman, and Scherzer. But on the flip side doing say Galvis, Moreland, and Kikuchi instead doesn't actually accomplish anything unless you hit HUGE on one of them a la the Jays with Robbie Ray last year.

 

And like you pointed out a few weeks back there aren't actually many bad contracts to take on and buy prospects. There's like Pat Corbin, Madison Bumgarner, and Eric Hosmer?

 

Like, Jed's gotta do something so that we're not just sitting in the same place next year plus Davis minus Contreras. My ideal is/was a Gray or better SP and one of the big SS's, but I'm open to alternatives as long as they actually move the ball forward.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

 

[Tryptamine]

I think for me the concern is that the top and middle tiers of SP are going to be largely picked clean by the end of the day. And during Jed's postseason presser, he most explicitly name checked SP as the area for improvement. I don't have a problem going cheap at SP if it means we're going big elsewhere, but given all that's been put out there if we go cheap at SP how likely should we really think it is that we're going big elsewhere? Jed doesn't tell us everything, but he's not some douchebag like Matt Nagy who tries to play 5D chess with every media discussion.

 

I would even go so far as to say that I'm not even cataclysmically worried about spending money on FA in general, with rare exceptions it's a bunch of post-prime guys wanting really long commitments. But at the same time, one of the main assets you have for improving the team quickly is money, and you have to get pretty creative to use that money if you're not spending a big chunk of it in FA(whether that's 30M for 1 guy or 10M for 3). I'm all for creativity, but it's a narrow needle to thread when you don't know what the rules/motivations/timelines are going to be coming out of the CBA.

 

Exactly. Like I'm not asking for Correa, Freeman, and Scherzer. But on the flip side doing say Galvis, Moreland, and Kikuchi instead doesn't actually accomplish anything unless you hit HUGE on one of them a la the Jays with Robbie Ray last year.

 

And like you pointed out a few weeks back there aren't actually many bad contracts to take on and buy prospects. There's like Pat Corbin, Madison Bumgarner, and Eric Hosmer?

 

Like, Jed's gotta do something so that we're not just sitting in the same place next year plus Davis minus Contreras. My ideal is/was a Gray or better SP and one of the big SS's, but I'm open to alternatives as long as they actually move the ball forward.

 

I never thought it was reasonable to be truly competitive in 2022, but I did think it was completely reasonable to start adding pieces so that they can be competitive as early as 2023. At this point, I don't think even that is going to happen. I'd guess it's going to be more like 2012-2014 where they add rehab projects on one or two year deals with the hope of dealing them at the deadline.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I never thought it was reasonable to be truly competitive in 2022, but I did think it was completely reasonable to start adding pieces so that they can be competitive as early as 2023. At this point, I don't think even that is going to happen. I'd guess it's going to be more like 2012-2014 where they add rehab projects on one or two year deals with the hope of dealing them at the deadline.

 

I think it's still pretty early to see that as the assumed outcome. Even in Free Agency you still have half of the Top 25 free agents still available, and half of this year's top FA were recently available or acquired at a lower cost than that so you can get 2023+ pieces below that line. There's lots of teams that have done little to nothing so far and plenty of time to reshape a roster that allows for more than one narrow path to getting better.

[Tryptamine]

I never thought it was reasonable to be truly competitive in 2022, but I did think it was completely reasonable to start adding pieces so that they can be competitive as early as 2023. At this point, I don't think even that is going to happen. I'd guess it's going to be more like 2012-2014 where they add rehab projects on one or two year deals with the hope of dealing them at the deadline.

 

I think it's still pretty early to see that as the assumed outcome. Even in Free Agency you still have half of the Top 25 free agents still available, and half of this year's top FA were recently available or acquired at a lower cost than that so you can get 2023+ pieces below that line. There's lots of teams that have done little to nothing so far and plenty of time to reshape a roster that allows for more than one narrow path to getting better.

 

This is exactly the problem. Teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, etc haven't even opened up their wallets yet and half of the top 25 are already gone. So now you have to compete against some of the deepest pockets in the league with half of the inventory already gone.

[Bertz]

[Backtobanks]

 

I would even go so far as to say that I'm not even cataclysmically worried about spending money on FA in general, with rare exceptions it's a bunch of post-prime guys wanting really long commitments. But at the same time, one of the main assets you have for improving the team quickly is money, and you have to get pretty creative to use that money if you're not spending a big chunk of it in FA(whether that's 30M for 1 guy or 10M for 3). I'm all for creativity, but it's a narrow needle to thread when you don't know what the rules/motivations/timelines are going to be coming out of the CBA.

 

Exactly. Like I'm not asking for Correa, Freeman, and Scherzer. But on the flip side doing say Galvis, Moreland, and Kikuchi instead doesn't actually accomplish anything unless you hit HUGE on one of them a la the Jays with Robbie Ray last year.

 

And like you pointed out a few weeks back there aren't actually many bad contracts to take on and buy prospects. There's like Pat Corbin, Madison Bumgarner, and Eric Hosmer?

 

Like, Jed's gotta do something so that we're not just sitting in the same place next year plus Davis minus Contreras. My ideal is/was a Gray or better SP and one of the big SS's, but I'm open to alternatives as long as they actually move the ball forward.

 

I never thought it was reasonable to be truly competitive in 2022, but I did think it was completely reasonable to start adding pieces so that they can be competitive as early as 2023. At this point, I don't think even that is going to happen. I'd guess it's going to be more like 2012-2014 where they add rehab projects on one or two year deals with the hope of dealing them at the deadline.

 

The Cubs won't be competitive until 2024 and that's assuming their "kids" continue to progress. At this point, they need to start thinking about trades with their upper level prospects that don't really have a future here to finish building the roster.

[The_Achiever]

It'll be like 2013/2014 without a whole crop of studs in the minors. Who's fired up for baseball!

[Bertz]

 

For those curious, the Cubs are 26th in the league in dollars committed to 2024 and beyond. It's literally just David Bote and the buyout on Kyle Hendricks' club option. The average team has ~$33M a year committed in '24-'25. There's zero reason for a big market team like the Cubs to be afraid of signing one or two medium or long term contracts this winter. It's austerity theater.

[squally1313]

Hearing rumors about Baez to Seattle. Couple that with the KB rumors about ending up there, and with a newborn coming in late January, could definitely get into a Baez/KB infield for those late nights.

[Rob]

 

For those curious, the Cubs are 26th in the league in dollars committed to 2024 and beyond. It's literally just David Bote and the buyout on Kyle Hendricks' club option. The average team has ~$33M a year committed in '24-'25. There's zero reason for a big market team like the Cubs to be afraid of signing one or two medium or long term contracts this winter. It's austerity theater.

 

We are literally floating a lower payroll this year than Tampa Bay or Oakland right now. JFC...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

sure, why not

 

[Rob]

Semien never seems to stick at SS long...

[Bertz]

Holy horsefeathers

[Cubswin11]

Idk how we even get to a Milwaukee level payroll this year in the ~130 range. Which is horsefeathering embarrassing.

[Bertz]

Carlos Correa right now

 

[Rob]

The Rangers, who started this offseason in a similar position to us, have now committed more than $550M so far to rebuilding their team.

[sneakypower]

but, we will lead the league in nimble

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The A's are definitely trading all 3 SP and Olson now, right? All the more certain if the Mariners land one of those names they're attached to.

[CubinNY]

Didn't everyone already know this was going to be a crazy good offseason in terms of talent? Here are the Cubs with a ton of cash, no stars, and they sit on their hands because the timing isn't right or the price isn't right. I guess they can still bid on the dude from Japan.

[17 Seconds]

it's crazy how the cubs keep sinking lower and lower as a franchise. it just doesnt stop getting worse.

[Bertz]

The Rangers, who started this offseason in a similar position to us, have now committed more than $550M so far to rebuilding their team.

 

Pretty similar farm too. Tons of depth, but only one guy (Jung) who's a surefire contributor next year.