2021 Offseason Thread

[Named After Maddux]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/looking-for-a-match-in-a-willson-contreras-trade.html

 

Guardians, Mariners, Red Sox, Rockies, and Yankees listed as matches

 

Of those teams...maybe the Mariners can give up Ford or Hancock? Cleveland’s farm has alot of contact hitters and pre-injured pitchers, Red Sox meh, Rockies meh, Yankees meh

 

Tigers not listed but they have money, a need, and a good farm system

 

I still think the Mariners make the most sense for Conteras if they decide to trade him. Seattle is in a win-now mode and they have the system that can move a prospect in the 5-10 range and still entice a team like the Cubs. I'd be very interested in Brandon Williamson and I've liked Harry Ford for a while. Ford liked meeting with the Cubs before the draft, but I get the sense that they knew he'd be gone long before pick 21. They didn't fly out to meet him as the Mariners brass did.

[Bertz]

 

Oakland really stands out here. Padres and Yankees maybe a too, depending on how much the luxury tax limit changes

[Bertz]

 

lol

[d_money]

 

lol

Not sure what they are thinking. Everyone knows they don’t need him and he didn’t show well toward the end. Not sure what leverage they have.

[David]

 

lol

Not sure what they are thinking. Everyone knows they don’t need him and he didn’t show well toward the end. Not sure what leverage they have.

 

it's boob. that option is as good as not picked up.

[Backtobanks]

 

lol

Not sure what they are thinking. Everyone knows they don’t need him and he didn’t show well toward the end. Not sure what leverage they have.

 

it's boob. that option is as good as not picked up.

 

Not picking up the option saves money, but really makes you look idiotic after trading Madrigal and Heurer for him.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

lol

Not sure what they are thinking. Everyone knows they don’t need him and he didn’t show well toward the end. Not sure what leverage they have.

There's no reason not to pick up the option. It's a chance to acquire young talent using only money. It's very low risk, even though it's doubtful they can get back something huge. But there's going to be a contender that wants a solid closer going into the season for nothing but a decent prospect and a small financial commitment. It would be foolish to not pick up the option because your manager didn't know how to use him. That's like trading a 1st round TE because you hired an OC that doesn't use TEs.

[UMFan83]

 

lol

Not sure what they are thinking. Everyone knows they don’t need him and he didn’t show well toward the end. Not sure what leverage they have.

There's no reason not to pick up the option. It's a chance to acquire young talent using only money. It's very low risk, even though it's doubtful they can get back something huge. But there's going to be a contender that wants a solid closer going into the season for nothing but a decent prospect and a small financial commitment. It would be foolish to not pick up the option because your manager didn't know how to use him. That's like trading a 1st round TE because you hired an OC that doesn't use TEs.

 

Also there's been discussion about a salary floor in the next CBA. Not sure if it will come to that, but if it does someone like Kimbrel could have value to a team like the Rays. Helps them get to the Salary floor and gives them a player with very high upside.

[squally1313]

Liam Hendricks is 31 years old and signed for 3 more years, and isn't chasing down any save milestones or anything like that. Turn him into your 6th-8th inning fireman, let Kimbrel close if you don't find a good deal for him.

[d_money]

Hendriks will be 33 next year, FWIW

[Backtobanks]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/tigers-notes-goodrum-greene-tv-deal.html

 

Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Niko Goodrum looks like a strong candidate to be non-tendered this off-season.

 

Goodrum would have made a much more clever pickup when the team was good, but would be one of the cheaper and more versatile FAs to offer playing time this offseason

 

He's cheap because he isn't very good. He plays multiple positions and hits from both sides, but he doesn't do either very well.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd be more interested in Goodrum if I was confident he was a plus defensive SS, or if his platoon split was heavy on the left side instead of the right. As it stands even the good version of him seems redundant with the infielders already on the roster.

[Cubswin11]

Chris Taylor would be a nice offseason addition. He’s basically a backup for every spot and can start him almost every day somewhere. Hell I wouldn’t mind moving Happ and just making him the CF’er full time with some sort of LHH defensive caddy so he can also be Nico/Madrigal/Wisdom insurance.

[Tryptamine]

Chris Taylor would be a nice offseason addition. He’s basically a backup for every spot and can start him almost every day somewhere. Hell I wouldn’t mind moving Happ and just making him the CF’er full time with some sort of LHH defensive caddy so he can also be Nico/Madrigal/Wisdom insurance.

 

ERod, Taylor and Kluber are the 3 I reasonably want.

[CubinNY]

I'm a little bit late on this thread, but why in Jah's name would the Cubs be interested in trading Willson Contreras if they say they plan to be competitive soon? The only way I could squint and see it is if they got a cheaper version of him in return.

 

If they trade him they are tacitly admitting that they have no plans to compete any season soon.

[Backtobanks]

I'm a little bit late on this thread, but why in Jah's name would the Cubs be interested in trading Willson Contreras if they say they plan to be competitive soon? The only way I could squint and see it is if they got a cheaper version of him in return.

 

If they trade him they are tacitly admitting that they have no plans to compete any season soon.

 

I just posted the same thought in Cubs Discussion about them not wanting a 2012-2014 rebuild and yet Contreras rumors are all over the place.

[UMFan83]

I'm a little bit late on this thread, but why in Jah's name would the Cubs be interested in trading Willson Contreras if they say they plan to be competitive soon? The only way I could squint and see it is if they got a cheaper version of him in return.

 

If they trade him they are tacitly admitting that they have no plans to compete any season soon.

 

I feel the same way. It's hard to tell what talks have been had behind the scenes with regards to extensions, but Willson has been pretty adamant about only signing if the Cubs are in winning mode. Maybe they believe that while they have a plan, they can't feel certain that they will be in a strong position by the end of next year, and if so trading him now will net more in return than trading him midseason or getting nothing for him.

 

The other thing to consider is that next year will be Willson's age 30 season and has been catching for 10 years now including minors. Track record for catchers in their 30's is not great. Some of the smarts on here can correct me, but I would guess offense holds up better than defense, and the Cubs feel like they need a strong defensive catcher to maximize the value of their pitching staff. Perhaps if the DH does get implemented in the NL this offseason, this will offer the Cubs more incentive to extend him.

[squally1313]

No problem with them feeling out the market for someone with one year left before free agency, especially when that guy is a 30 year old catcher who has been used very heavily when healthy for the last 5 years. Fair amount of teams facing 40 man roster crunches, and as much as we all love Willy, the difference between him and a couple stiffs who can throw together a 1.5 fWAR isn't going to make or break the season.

[CubinNY]

Fair amount of teams facing 40 man roster crunches, and as much as we all love Willy, the difference between him and a couple stiffs who can throw together a 1.5 fWAR isn't going to make or break the season.

 

As we have seen, that's much easier said than done. It's stupidity draped in 3-dimensional chess.

[fromthestretch]

Isn't the free agent catching market projected to be weak this offseason? Most of the better catchers (Posey, Zunino, etc.) have club options for next year. I could see the Cubs feeling things out and seeing if a team desperate for catching is willing to overpay.

 

I think the mistake a lot of people make is equating making a player available in a trade to being willing to take a crappy return for him just to get rid of him.

[Tim]

As much as I love Willson, the most he's ever contributed is 2.7 fWAR. If you can get quality assets for him, you're not losing a ton by moving him and signing whatever catchers you'd like. It just adds one more position to the offseason shopping list. Honestly, I don't think I'd want to lock him up long term after next season anyway. If he's not going to sign a limited term (2-3 year) extension beyond next season, trading him probably makes a lot of sense if you get decent assets in return.

[squally1313]

Fair amount of teams facing 40 man roster crunches, and as much as we all love Willy, the difference between him and a couple stiffs who can throw together a 1.5 fWAR isn't going to make or break the season.

 

As we have seen, that's much easier said than done. It's stupidity draped in 3-dimensional chess.

 

19 teams managed it last year, the Cubs were not one of them.

[UMFan83]

As much as I love Willson, the most he's ever contributed is 2.7 fWAR. If you can get quality assets for him, you're not losing a ton by moving him and signing whatever catchers you'd like. It just adds one more position to the offseason shopping list. Honestly, I don't think I'd want to lock him up long term after next season anyway. If he's not going to sign a limited term (2-3 year) extension beyond next season, trading him probably makes a lot of sense if you get decent assets in return.

 

In terms of fWAR he's been the 6th most valuable catcher since the start of 2016, behind Grandal, Realmuto, Posey, Zumino and Gary Sanchez. The first 3 are on a tier of their own, while the next 5 catchers, including Willson are bunched together in that next tier. So he's definitely been an elite caliber catcher, but age and wear and tear do concern me, and its not like he's been so great that you'd be stupid to move him.

[CubinNY]

Who are they going to replace him with? It's not trading him that is the main problem, it's replacing him. Especially, on a team that is absent talent.

[Tim]

Who are they going to replace him with? It's not trading him that is the main problem, it's replacing him. Especially, on a team that is absent talent.

The Cubs, as a whole, finished 20th in MLB in catching fWAR in 2021. Rather than thinking of it as replacing Willson alone, think of it as doing better than that overall. 19 other teams managed it - shouldn't be *that* hard.