2021 Offseason Thread

[UMFan83]

Absolutely no interest in Story, don’t trust the road splits and having the QO attached.

 

What about Story's road splits are different than any other good Rockies hitter that moves teams? Most Rockies hitters struggle on the road, not because they are actually bad hitters that Coors makes good but because of the adjustment of playing a Coors and then playing at sea level. There are reasons to not love Story but I don't think his road splits are one of them. There might be a slight depression in stats but you can't look at his road numbers and assume that's the hitter he is on another team.

[Tim]

This seems like a nice hire:

 

https://theathletic.com/news/sources-astros-executive-ehsan-bokhari-expected-to-be-named-agm-for-cubs/u8Z5F4ancorB/

 

As the Cubs prepare for what’s expected to be a busy winter of additions to their roster, they continue to add to an ever-evolving front office. Sources told The Athletic that team president Jed Hoyer is expected to bring in Ehsan Bokhari as assistant general manager, adding an executive to the fold who has spent his career at two of the most recently successful organizations in baseball.

 

After a season leading the Houston Astros' research and development department, Bokhari has spent the last two years as their senior director of player evaluation. Prior to that, he was one of the original members of the Los Angeles Dodgers' R&D staff, spending four seasons with the organization as a senior analyst.

[Cubswin11]

Absolutely no interest in Story, don’t trust the road splits and having the QO attached.

 

What about Story's road splits are different than any other good Rockies hitter that moves teams? Most Rockies hitters struggle on the road, not because they are actually bad hitters that Coors makes good but because of the adjustment of playing a Coors and then playing at sea level. There are reasons to not love Story but I don't think his road splits are one of them. There might be a slight depression in stats but you can't look at his road numbers and assume that's the hitter he is on another team.

98 wRC+ away for his career is pretty bad. I get the adjustment thing but that still scares me. He also was pretty horrible this year for getting half his games in Coors, he turns 29 by opening day and a lot of his value is tied to defense which at 29 he probably doesn’t have a lot of premium SS years ahead of him on his next deal. Just would rather use the money on someone else, especially because he likely has a QO attached to him.

 

I’d rather just sign a Jose Iglesias type on a cheap/short deal and let Nico get some reps at SS if we aren’t adding Correa or Seager.

[Cubswin11]

BN with a good roundup of a good NPB outfielder that may get posted: Seiya Suzuki: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/10/22/top-japanese-outfielder-seiya-suzuki-will-reportedly-be-posted-soon/

 

I am admittedly the easiest person in the world to sell on Japanese imports, but this seems like it could be a really good fit. The profile seems like it would translate well, as Brett points out the Cubs can take the risk on that unknown more than the average contender, and a RH corner OF complements the current roster nicely with all the lefties hanging around(Happ, Heyward, Ortega, Deichmann). Brett also notes that the posting fee is a good outlet for the one off 'savings' of shedding the salary they did at the deadline, though the exact internal accounting on that front is far from certain.

Very much am interested in him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This seems like a nice hire:

 

https://theathletic.com/news/sources-astros-executive-ehsan-bokhari-expected-to-be-named-agm-for-cubs/u8Z5F4ancorB/

 

As the Cubs prepare for what’s expected to be a busy winter of additions to their roster, they continue to add to an ever-evolving front office. Sources told The Athletic that team president Jed Hoyer is expected to bring in Ehsan Bokhari as assistant general manager, adding an executive to the fold who has spent his career at two of the most recently successful organizations in baseball.

 

After a season leading the Houston Astros' research and development department, Bokhari has spent the last two years as their senior director of player evaluation. Prior to that, he was one of the original members of the Los Angeles Dodgers' R&D staff, spending four seasons with the organization as a senior analyst.

 

Going from Randy Bush to the masters in statistics guy that worked for Houston and the Dodgers R&D is about a dramatic a shift in skills and perspectives as you can get in modern front office.

[Bertz]

This seems like a nice hire:

 

https://theathletic.com/news/sources-astros-executive-ehsan-bokhari-expected-to-be-named-agm-for-cubs/u8Z5F4ancorB/

 

As the Cubs prepare for what’s expected to be a busy winter of additions to their roster, they continue to add to an ever-evolving front office. Sources told The Athletic that team president Jed Hoyer is expected to bring in Ehsan Bokhari as assistant general manager, adding an executive to the fold who has spent his career at two of the most recently successful organizations in baseball.

 

After a season leading the Houston Astros' research and development department, Bokhari has spent the last two years as their senior director of player evaluation. Prior to that, he was one of the original members of the Los Angeles Dodgers' R&D staff, spending four seasons with the organization as a senior analyst.

 

That's really cool, I don't know him but probably had classes with him (I was doing Stats at U of I at the same time).

[Cubswin11]

Yeah this seems like a great hire. Degree in statistics and a PHD in quant psychology and was a visiting professor.

 

[Tim]

This seems like a nice hire:

 

https://theathletic.com/news/sources-astros-executive-ehsan-bokhari-expected-to-be-named-agm-for-cubs/u8Z5F4ancorB/

 

As the Cubs prepare for what’s expected to be a busy winter of additions to their roster, they continue to add to an ever-evolving front office. Sources told The Athletic that team president Jed Hoyer is expected to bring in Ehsan Bokhari as assistant general manager, adding an executive to the fold who has spent his career at two of the most recently successful organizations in baseball.

 

After a season leading the Houston Astros' research and development department, Bokhari has spent the last two years as their senior director of player evaluation. Prior to that, he was one of the original members of the Los Angeles Dodgers' R&D staff, spending four seasons with the organization as a senior analyst.

 

Going from Randy Bush to the masters in statistics guy that worked for Houston and the Dodgers R&D is about a dramatic a shift in skills and perspectives as you can get in modern front office.

Yeah - that tells us a fair amount about Jed's approach vs Theo's.

[UMFan83]

Absolutely no interest in Story, don’t trust the road splits and having the QO attached.

 

What about Story's road splits are different than any other good Rockies hitter that moves teams? Most Rockies hitters struggle on the road, not because they are actually bad hitters that Coors makes good but because of the adjustment of playing a Coors and then playing at sea level. There are reasons to not love Story but I don't think his road splits are one of them. There might be a slight depression in stats but you can't look at his road numbers and assume that's the hitter he is on another team.

98 wRC+ away for his career is pretty bad. I get the adjustment thing but that still scares me. He also was pretty horrible this year for getting half his games in Coors, he turns 29 by opening day and a lot of his value is tied to defense which at 29 he probably doesn’t have a lot of premium SS years ahead of him on his next deal. Just would rather use the money on someone else, especially because he likely has a QO attached to him.

 

I’d rather just sign a Jose Iglesias type on a cheap/short deal and let Nico get some reps at SS if we aren’t adding Correa or Seager.

 

But again 98 wRC+ is not bad for a Rockies player. In fact, Story has the 9th best away wRC+ in Rockies history (min 400 PA).

 

I'm not saying Story is my first choice, but he should be a quality hitter and provide strong defense for at least the first couple of years of the deal (and may retain some of that defensive value if moved off SS in the back half). I think he's worth going after if we don't go after/get Correa or Seager over in house options unless his market is ridiculous.

[WrigleyField 22]

FO changes continue. McLeod is out (he declined an offer to stay)

https://theathletic.com/2905697/2021/10/22/turnover-continues-in-cubs-front-office-with-jason-mcleod-set-to-leave-the-organization?source=user-shared-article

[Cubswin11]

 

What about Story's road splits are different than any other good Rockies hitter that moves teams? Most Rockies hitters struggle on the road, not because they are actually bad hitters that Coors makes good but because of the adjustment of playing a Coors and then playing at sea level. There are reasons to not love Story but I don't think his road splits are one of them. There might be a slight depression in stats but you can't look at his road numbers and assume that's the hitter he is on another team.

98 wRC+ away for his career is pretty bad. I get the adjustment thing but that still scares me. He also was pretty horrible this year for getting half his games in Coors, he turns 29 by opening day and a lot of his value is tied to defense which at 29 he probably doesn’t have a lot of premium SS years ahead of him on his next deal. Just would rather use the money on someone else, especially because he likely has a QO attached to him.

 

I’d rather just sign a Jose Iglesias type on a cheap/short deal and let Nico get some reps at SS if we aren’t adding Correa or Seager.

 

But again 98 wRC+ is not bad for a Rockies player. In fact, Story has the 9th best away wRC+ in Rockies history (min 400 PA).

 

I'm not saying Story is my first choice, but he should be a quality hitter and provide strong defense for at least the first couple of years of the deal (and may retain some of that defensive value if moved off SS in the back half). I think he's worth going after if we don't go after/get Correa or Seager over in house options unless his market is ridiculous.

Just not a fan, if we’re willing to spend what it takes to sign him I’d rather use that money in other ways or even wait 1-2 FA periods from now.

[CubinNY]

Brett has a write up about the Cubs potential strategy that makes sense to me. And I agree with him, if they go short-term high AAV and end up missing out on the guys they target resulting in seconds and odds and ends they will have failed miserably.

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/10/23/can-the-cubs-actually-afford-to-sit-out-the-deeper-end-of-the-free-agent-pool-entirely/

[Gilby]

With the number of scouts PTR laid off during and after Covid, I wonder if the Suzuki posting is something they were even the slightest bit prepared for or if they're going to have to trust Baseball America articles like us.

 

Hopefully they are able to do their homework these next few weeks because he seems like a great fit.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Brett has a write up about the Cubs potential strategy that makes sense to me. And I agree with him, if they go short-term high AAV and end up missing out on the guys they target resulting in seconds and odds and ends they will have failed miserably.

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/10/23/can-the-cubs-actually-afford-to-sit-out-the-deeper-end-of-the-free-agent-pool-entirely/

 

 

I’m not sure I follow the logic for this one.

 

But if they go this route and don’t actually even wind up SIGNING their preferred targets, sticking us with leftovers and second-choices? That is entirely unacceptable. That’s where the offseason would be a failure, and we should not have grace for a terrible 2022 Cubs team, if it comes to that.

 

The argument seems to be “if you intentionally limit the pool of players you can add, you’re left with scraps that doom the season to failure if you don’t sign your targets”. But even if you set your sights higher, that doesn’t mean you’ll be able get more than the scraps if you miss because the players in between are still getting targeted in the meantime. If anything, aiming for the top the market likely has greater risk in that regard, because they’re likely to be longer negotiations, you can’t use playing time as a differentiator so less is in your control, and there’s the possibility that free agency is condensed into a much shorter window post-CBA negotiations.

 

I’m also not sure I agree with how narrow this seems to be defining what counts as ‘intelligent’ spending. The implication seems to be any FA that can get more than 2 years is off limits. Not only does that not match past behavior(the 2013 Cubs gave Edwin Jackson 4 years without the “must be aggressive” messaging of 2021), but it’s very likely that depending on the post-CBA landscape, there’s more options in that bucket than there were in 2012-2014 thanks to the continued emphasis on suppressing FA spending from owners via the CBA.

[Tim]

I feel like we've been obsessed with this guy for years, but if this is his price tag sign Jon Gray.

 

Basically, the Rockies beat writer is suggesting there will be no QO and he's only expecting a 3/30 contract.

[UK]

I feel like we've been obsessed with this guy for years, but if this is his price tag sign Jon Gray.

 

Basically, the Rockies beat writer is suggesting there will be no QO and he's only expecting a 3/30 contract.

 

This generation's Brian Roberts.

[Bertz]

Brett has a write up about the Cubs potential strategy that makes sense to me. And I agree with him, if they go short-term high AAV and end up missing out on the guys they target resulting in seconds and odds and ends they will have failed miserably.

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/10/23/can-the-cubs-actually-afford-to-sit-out-the-deeper-end-of-the-free-agent-pool-entirely/

 

 

I’m not sure I follow the logic for this one.

 

But if they go this route and don’t actually even wind up SIGNING their preferred targets, sticking us with leftovers and second-choices? That is entirely unacceptable. That’s where the offseason would be a failure, and we should not have grace for a terrible 2022 Cubs team, if it comes to that.

 

The argument seems to be “if you intentionally limit the pool of players you can add, you’re left with scraps that doom the season to failure if you don’t sign your targets”. But even if you set your sights higher, that doesn’t mean you’ll be able get more than the scraps if you miss because the players in between are still getting targeted in the meantime. If anything, aiming for the top the market likely has greater risk in that regard, because they’re likely to be longer negotiations, you can’t use playing time as a differentiator so less is in your control, and there’s the possibility that free agency is condensed into a much shorter window post-CBA negotiations.

 

I’m also not sure I agree with how narrow this seems to be defining what counts as ‘intelligent’ spending. The implication seems to be any FA that can get more than 2 years is off limits. Not only does that not match past behavior(the 2013 Cubs gave Edwin Jackson 4 years without the “must be aggressive” messaging of 2021), but it’s very likely that depending on the post-CBA landscape, there’s more options in that bucket than there were in 2012-2014 thanks to the continued emphasis on suppressing FA spending from owners via the CBA.

 

I do like Brett so this is a little mean, but when he does these sorts of stream-of-consciousness writeups you can see why he *used* to be a lawyer. He's anchored HARD on "no long term deals" and created this whole universe of possibilities that take that as gospel. And the only exception he's allowed for is basically if a star settles for a high AAV 3-4 year deal.

 

But like you said, that's not necessarily what "spend intelligently" means. Let's say Jed makes five signings this offseason. CLEARLY it's not going to be five long term deals. We don't want to load up the books and be back where we were in like 2019. But do we really think it'd be out of bounds for one guy to get a 5+ year deal, and maybe another to get 3-4? I mean David Bote is literally the only money currently on the books beyond '23. A deal or two that stretch into that timeframe is not going to prematurely hamstring the team.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I feel like we've been obsessed with this guy for years, but if this is his price tag sign Jon Gray.

 

Basically, the Rockies beat writer is suggesting there will be no QO and he's only expecting a 3/30 contract.

 

I’m pretty skeptical that Gray gets a deal that modest, but I do think that might be telling about the Rockies view of Gray. Even if the 3/30 is exaggerated and they would be willing to give him 4/50 or something, that’s still in the range of not being a slam dunk qualifying offer, especially for a more modest spending team like Colorado. Good news all around.

[Bertz]

 

I'd keep Adam, Megill, and Hermosillo for sure.

 

Morgan, Rucker, Stewart, and Sampson I think would depend on how many guys they feel they need to add to protect from the Rule 5 draft. I'd like to keep all four, but not at the expense of actual prospects.

[CubinNY]

 

I'd keep Adam, Megill, and Hermosillo for sure.

 

Morgan, Rucker, Stewart, and Sampson I think would depend on how many guys they feel they need to add to protect from the Rule 5 draft. I'd like to keep all four, but not at the expense of actual prospects.

 

Megill?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm rusty on my 40 man roster nuances, what's the action and consequences here? Looks like the current 40 man is at 47 including the 60 day IL.

 

EDIT: Assuming this isn't a one way door and the only forcing function is getting down to 40(meaning we can keep 5 at most), I'd say Hermosillo, Alcantara, Adam, Stewart, and one of the lefties, I guess Brothers.

 

EDIT2: Are some of the catchers part of this too and just not in Bryan's tweet? I could maybe be convinced to keep another reliever like Nance over the 4th/5th catcher like Lobaton.

[Bertz]

 

I'd keep Adam, Megill, and Hermosillo for sure.

 

Morgan, Rucker, Stewart, and Sampson I think would depend on how many guys they feel they need to add to protect from the Rule 5 draft. I'd like to keep all four, but not at the expense of actual prospects.

 

Megill?

 

Megill's stuff is pretty outrageous, honestly closer caliber. And his peripherals were good, so he was probably just been a victim of batted ball luck. Like I wouldn't give him the 8th inning right from the jump next, but he probably ought to be in the opening day pen and definitely should be at least kept in the org.

[Bertz]

I'm rusty on my 40 man roster nuances, what's the action and consequences here? Looks like the current 40 man is at 47 including the 60 day IL.

 

EDIT: Assuming this isn't a one way door and the only forcing function is getting down to 40(meaning we can keep 5 at most), I'd say Hermosillo, Alcantara, Adam, Stewart, and one of the lefties, I guess Brothers.

 

EDIT2: Are some of the catchers part of this too and just not in Bryan's tweet? I could maybe be convinced to keep another reliever like Nance over the 4th/5th catcher like Lobaton.

 

My eyes always glaze over when reading about the intensely administrative parts of the offseason, but I think we have to get down to 40 shortly after the World Series, and have to add any Type 5 picks by early December.

 

I see a few pending FAs on the current 40 man (which I think explains Lobaton?), so I think we're at 43 once the offseason officially begins. I'd think you need to get down to ~35 for Rule 5 purposes by 12/1, which would mean you could keep 4 of Bryan's 12. You could also maybe sneak a few guys through waivers, and really keep 6-7, but those "extra" guys are obviously not guaranteed and probably guys without options (and likely position players).

[Tim]

I'm rusty on my 40 man roster nuances, what's the action and consequences here? Looks like the current 40 man is at 47 including the 60 day IL.

 

EDIT: Assuming this isn't a one way door and the only forcing function is getting down to 40(meaning we can keep 5 at most), I'd say Hermosillo, Alcantara, Adam, Stewart, and one of the lefties, I guess Brothers.

 

EDIT2: Are some of the catchers part of this too and just not in Bryan's tweet? I could maybe be convinced to keep another reliever like Nance over the 4th/5th catcher like Lobaton.

 

My eyes always glaze over when reading about the intensely administrative parts of the offseason, but I think we have to get down to 40 shortly after the World Series, and have to add any Type 5 picks by early December.

 

I see a few pending FAs on the current 40 man (which I think explains Lobaton?), so I think we're at 43 once the offseason officially begins. I'd think you need to get down to ~35 for Rule 5 purposes by 12/1, which would mean you could keep 4 of Bryan's 12. You could also maybe sneak a few guys through waivers, and really keep 6-7, but those "extra" guys are obviously not guaranteed and probably guys without options (and likely position players).

Are all the players off the covid list yet? I know we were over 50 guys on the 40 man roster at the end of the year.

[Bertz]

I'm rusty on my 40 man roster nuances, what's the action and consequences here? Looks like the current 40 man is at 47 including the 60 day IL.

 

EDIT: Assuming this isn't a one way door and the only forcing function is getting down to 40(meaning we can keep 5 at most), I'd say Hermosillo, Alcantara, Adam, Stewart, and one of the lefties, I guess Brothers.

 

EDIT2: Are some of the catchers part of this too and just not in Bryan's tweet? I could maybe be convinced to keep another reliever like Nance over the 4th/5th catcher like Lobaton.

 

My eyes always glaze over when reading about the intensely administrative parts of the offseason, but I think we have to get down to 40 shortly after the World Series, and have to add any Type 5 picks by early December.

 

I see a few pending FAs on the current 40 man (which I think explains Lobaton?), so I think we're at 43 once the offseason officially begins. I'd think you need to get down to ~35 for Rule 5 purposes by 12/1, which would mean you could keep 4 of Bryan's 12. You could also maybe sneak a few guys through waivers, and really keep 6-7, but those "extra" guys are obviously not guaranteed and probably guys without options (and likely position players).

Are all the players off the covid list yet? I know we were over 50 guys on the 40 man roster at the end of the year.

 

Yeah I think that happened a week or so ago. They cut Fargas and the other dudes they emergency called up the last weekend of the season. Although I do see that Giambrone is still on the roster. Him and Higgins are guys that aren't on Bryan's list that I think probably ought to be. I think you try and sneak them through waivers and don't lose many tears if it fails.