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2020-21 Offseason Top Prospects Lists

CaliforniaRaisin

By CaliforniaRaisin,
in Cubs Minor League Talk

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  • 2 weeks later...
Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
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Curious as to what NSBB top prospect lists would look like?

 

I think the Cubs' system is a good Rorschach test for what you value in prospects, as they have a couple guys each of several different archetypes:

 

- The blue chip teenagers murdering baseballs in AZ (Preciado, Caissie, Alcantara)

 

- The slightly older blue chip teenagers who got pantsed for the first 6 weeks at Myrtle Beach, but are now adjusting (Howard, Made, Hearn)

 

- The pitchers who will probably be pretty good but aren't super exciting (Wicks, Kilian)

 

- The injured guys (PCA, Brailyn, Amaya, K. Franklin, Roederer, R. Thompson)

 

- The guys who strike out a ton but will get really exciting really fast if they suddenly didn't (Strumpf, Morel, Canario, Ball, Nwogu, C. Franklin)

 

Now obviously not every name above is interchangeable, but like I think for instance the order you have Made and Morel is probably pretty telling of your broader prospect preferences.

  • 2 weeks later...
CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

Community Moderator
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I don't have a BA sub but it sounds like they ranked our farm system 24th today? Ugh.

 

 

24 Chicago Cubs

 

Top 100 Prospects (2): Brennen Davis, OF (28); Brailyn Marquez, LHP (95)

 

The Skinny: It's one step forward and one step back for the Cubs, who infused their system with talent at the trade deadline but have seen top prospects like Marquez, C Miguel Amaya and others barely play due to injuries.

 

Generally, it seems publications have the Cubs with only one top 100 guy (amusingly, BA is probably the high water mark with 2 top 100 prospects). The Cubs farm isn't top heavy, has lots of depth and a bunch of their best prospects are teenagers in complex leagues so I think we’re going to see wildly divergent rankings this offseason. FG has them at 7th and I suspect that’ll be their best ranking but clearly, FG values depth a bit more and has no problem taking risks ranking kids far away, unlike BA.

Tryptamine South Bend Cubs

Tryptamine

Old-Timey Member
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I don't care what your perspective on prospect value is, 24th is just wrong. It's going to look even more foolish when the Cubs have 5 top 100 guys, 2 of them top 50, come mid-season lists in '22.
Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I've criticized BA a lot the last few years, as I think the quality has gone down substantially since Jim Callis left. That said, several of the individual writers (JJ Cooper, Ben Badler, Carlos Collazo, etc.) are still great. I think the drop in quality has been due to a move to more of a clickbaity content schedule. They're constantly refreshing rankings, even if there's no reason. Like I'm pretty sure they did one last June or July, which was asinine. It's not that the people have gotten that much worse, it's that the same number of people are doing 3x as many lists as they used to, and there's a noticeable corresponding drop in quality.

 

I think JJ has some good points there about starpower vs. depth, and the (absolutely fair) drops from Marquez and Amaya, but ultimately I do expect that NAM is right that there's going to be significant movement in the offseason when the BA folks have more up to date Intel on guys who've improved since March (of 2020 for some). And if there is, it proves him right, because clearly the next five weeks shouldn't move things more than a smidge. There are logistics at play that make the inevitable offseason shakeup fair, but the right thing to do is just to not put out some half assed some new rankings right now. Wait until January when you can do it right. Measure twice and cut once as they say.

 

Contrasting with Fangraphs is interesting. They're the high guys on the Cubs system. That said, Eric Longenhagen, purely through the happenstance of where he lives, is the only national voice who's seen most of the Cubs' complex league guys in person. So while EL is not typically my go to source for this stuff, right now he's CLEARLY the most well informed. Not to the point where we go "he's right they're wrong" but instead of simply splitting the difference, I'd put more weight behind 7 than I would 24.

sneakypower South Bend Cubs

sneakypower

Old-Timey Member
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Top 20 Cubs prospects: 2021 mid-year rankings [Marquee Sports]

https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/top-20-cubs-prospects-2021-mid-year-rankings/

 

some eyebrow raisers for sure here

 

4) Owen Caissie

Caissie’s raw power is some of the best in the system. He has one of the highest average exit velocities and highest max exit velocities this year among the Cubs top prospects.

 

5) Kevin Alcantara

It will be central for the Cubs to aid Alcantara with his body maturation and how it changes his on-field performance. If there’s synergy, Alcantara will easily become a Top 100 prospect in baseball and Top 3 on this list.
Tim MVP

Tim

Site Manager
Posted
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DJ Herz didn't make the fangraphs top 50? :lol:

Here were the comments from their July update:

Younger High-Variance Types

Angel Gonzalez, RHP

Danis Correa, RHP

Alberto Sojo, RHP

Francisco Fermin, RHP

DJ Herz, LHP

Felix Stevens, 1B

 

Gonzalez, 18, has been up to 97 with the ACL group and has a low-90s cutter. He’s relievery. I’ve seen Correa up to 97 but he has been hurt a lot. Sojo, 20, is really athletic and goes right at hitters with a low-90s cut-action fastball. Fermin sits 88-91 but has a prototypical frame and his curveball has good shape. He’s a 45 athlete. Herz is a slinging lefty who looked relief-only last summer and is missing bats at an affiliate in 2021. Stevens is a slightly older Cuban signee with big pop.

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