2020-21 Offseason Top Prospects Lists

[Tim]

BA Cubs Top 10 Prospect Podcast: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/podcast-chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects/

Thanks for this - it was very welcome today.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Thanks CR, that link was much appreciated...Some unnecessary hot takes:

 

- I'll take that range right now for Jensen's strike throwing: fringe average to above average

 

- Preciado up to 6'5" already!! They seem curious about his ability to stick at SS but really, in his case, that's not important. For all I care he is the 1B of the future (his dad was 1B/OF) once he's 6'5" 220+ or whatever he gets up, the real key is giant switch hitter with a shot to hit and play defense somewhere

 

- Mentioned the 10-12 range for Mena, which sounds good and probably higher than most? Nice to hear a remark that some liking him more than Preciado since I think it's closer than seems

 

- Abbott, Carraway, Verdugo, and Roederer seem to be 11-14 pre-trade, mentioned 6-14 all had people calling top 10

 

- Sounded to me like they really wanted to put Howard 3rd (coughshouldputhim1cough) giving him all that air time but Alzolay's ML readiness won out and potential 2021 role won out.

 

- Kohl Franklin's not a bad prospect but checks every box for a HS arm? Really? Still trying to find a breaking ball, didn't pitch most of his senior year, and logged 50 innings in the 2+ years since? Dylan Cease with a TJ surgery checked more boxes by this point! Again, I think Franklin is fine said it here on draft day he'd get better easily in the pros, but also the way his few reps draw optimism while these low or no rep hitters get nickled and dimed on experience is some corporate horsefeathers maaan

 

They had Amaya 3rd, not Alzolay. Howard 4 and Alzolay 5.

[craig]

Thanks CR, that link was much appreciated...Some unnecessary hot takes:

 

....

 

Agree with most of your takes, Tom, a lot mirror some of my thoughts too.

1. Particularly the note that some think Jensen might end up with decent/good control.

2. Agree that Presciado doesn't need to be a SS to be really good; *if* he ends up being a really good hitter with really good power.

3. I'm much more interested in the positive Franklin talk. Glaser talked to a bunch of Cubs people, who have access to his throwing over the last year. Whatever Glaser's articulation of why, it sounds like Cubs people fairly consistently view him as being at that 6-7 level on par overall with jensen. Which I take as pretty exciting. You may have different boxes, but it seems they believe his curve is good. So, the spin is that his control is good; his velocity and fastball spin is good and projects to get better; that his curve is good; and his change is really good; and his work ethic is good. I imagine between any two scouts, their relative ranking of Frankling/Jensen probably hinges on whether they see Jensen checking enough rotation boxes. A scout who thinks he's too small, that his control is more on the fringe-average side and will involve high pitches-per-inning, I assume those scouts will place him behind Franklin. And if you project his control as good, then rotation innings are more accessible.

4. With the Padres guys, they suggested that as good as Presciado seems to be, that different people don't necessarily see a lot of separation. Suggested that some people maybe had Mena ahead of Presciado, and somebody had Santana ahead of both. Optimist says that's because all four might be legit 1st-round-level talents. The best is really good, but the others are so good too that you can't separate much. Pessimist is that none are really all THAT good, more like four 2nd-round guys. Obviously the observation is really limited, so expecting observers to have enough views to rank them accurately is unrealistic. And even for Padres people who have observed, that's still limited observation on the past; how they will develop future, is uncertain projection for anybody.

 

5. Tom, the other "take" for me was on Howard, and was NOT as positive as yours. He said from people he's talked to, some projected a .240 8-HR type hitter; and the high-end projection was .260 15HR kind of hitting. I admit for a HS 1st-rounder, I'd like to think the ceiling would be a little higher than .260-15HR? Those brackets kind of feel like Addision-Russell-with-less-power on the low end and Jason-Heyward-with-less-walks on the high end. Not quite as optimistic as I'd expected. Again, the player is perhaps too young and the views too few for any of those projections to merit any confidence. But yeah, from the scouting this doesn't seem to project as an asset middle-of-the-lineup bat, more a good-defense guys who'd be #6 hitter, perhaps a #7 on a really good team.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Two Cubs in BA’s top 100:

 

52. Brailyn Márquez

72. Brennen Davis

[Named After Maddux]

Two Cubs in BA’s top 100:

 

52. Brailyn Márquez

72. Brennen Davis

 

Guessing based on their recent podcast that BA has Amaya just outside the Top 100.

[Brian]

Let me first note that I know very little of substance about Cubs prospects and absolutely nothing about other teams, but with all the dunking on the Cubs having only 2 top 100 guys isn't it realistically possible the Cubs end up this time next year with 6-7 guys on the list?

[Rex Buckingham]

Let me first note that I know very little of substance about Cubs prospects and absolutely nothing about other teams, but with all the dunking on the Cubs having only 2 top 100 guys isn't it realistically possible the Cubs end up this time next year with 6-7 guys on the list?

 

I would guess that most prospect lists are going to be shaken up like crazy midseason and at the end of this year assuming we get actual minor league ball played.

[Bertz]

Let me first note that I know very little of substance about Cubs prospects and absolutely nothing about other teams, but with all the dunking on the Cubs having only 2 top 100 guys isn't it realistically possible the Cubs end up this time next year with 6-7 guys on the list?

 

Yeah, the Cubs farm isn't bereft of talent but most of it is very young. They're also lacking a star to hang your hat on.

 

That said they might honestly have the best collection of teenagers in the league. That's not going to help the team in the short term, but is a good recipe for shooting up the rankings in a single season. There's also the crew that would have been at Myrtle Beach last year (Davis, Roederer, etc.). Have one or two of those guys kill it in AA this year, and suddenly you do have that Top 25 overall guy to hang your hat on.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Shills be shilling:

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/2-cubs-prospects-make-baseball-americas-top-100-list

 

The magazine released its preseason prospect rankings Monday, and two Cubs made the list: pitcher Brailyn Marquez (No. 52) and outfielder Brennen Davis (No. 72). By contrast, the Padres led Major League Baseball with seven Top 100 prospects. This marked the fourth straight year that San Diego has boasted at least six Top 100 prospects.

 

The Padres, in their entire 69 (nice) year history, have made the playoffs one more time than the Chicago Cubs have since 2015

 

This offseason can not end soon enough. I'd rather watch the Cubs actually lose than see anymore offseason propaganda

 

----

 

Also also, Tyler Soderstrom made BA's top 100. He went 10 picks after Howard last year. The disrespect!

 

Soderstrom hit .500 at the A's alternate site versus players much older than him, then went to instructs and did really well there too. Howard didn't go to South Bend and only had 5 at bats in instructs. It's not disrespect.

 

The guy who should be in the top 100 is Miguel Amaya.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Two Cubs in BA’s top 100:

 

52. Brailyn Márquez

72. Brennen Davis

 

Guessing based on their recent podcast that BA has Amaya just outside the Top 100.

 

Miguel Amaya made BA's 10 who just missed. If this list is in order, Amaya would be their 108th best prospect:

 

Miguel Amaya, C, Cubs

 

The Cubs seem to be edging toward a rebuild as they have begun to trade or non-tender pieces of the team that has gone to the playoffs five of the past six seasons. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are all free agents after 2021. Getting solid production from Amaya, the team’s catcher of the future, will be a key part of the team’s attempt to build a new core of young talent.

 

And besides Amaya, these two Cubs were also ranked on at least one Baseball America staffer’s personal Top 150 (which is the building block by which BA puts together the Top 100):

 

Cubs: Adbert Alzolay, Ed Howard.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA Top 100 Chat:

 

Jeff (Idaho): Early prediction for next year's top overall prospect? Also, who do you see with the potential for the biggest rise in the rankings at years' end?

 

Josh Norris: For next year's No. 1, it is going to—once again—depend on what the season looks like in terms of coronavirus and the minor leagues and all that stuff we saw in 2020. Assuming some semblance of normalcy, I'd guess either Adley Rutschman or Julio Rodriguez will take that title once Wander Franco graduates to the major leagues for good. For the purposes of biggest riser, I'll look outside the Top 50 and list Quinn Priester (Pirates), D.L. Hall (Orioles), Alek Thomas (D-backs) and Brennen Davis (Cubs) as my candiates.

 

Vincent (Boston): I read that Brennen Davis is a lot stronger now and that his power grade is growing. What does his hit tool look like and does he have star upside?

 

Josh Norris: I am firmly aboard the Brennen Davis train. He's got plenty of tools and a high upside that he's starting to tap into now that he's focused solely on baseball. We project him as an average hitter with plus power to go with plus speed and arm. That sounds like star upside to me.

 

Matt (Nashville): Surprised to see Brailyn Marquez outside of the top 50 given his upside and late season improvement prior to the shut down. Was this based on lack of upper level performance record, reports from work outs, or simply quality of talent above him?

 

Kyle Glaser: Mostly quality of talent above him. If Marquez carries over his improvements he made at the end of 2019 and reportedly made at the alternate site in 2020 into 2021, he's another pitcher who could rise quickly.

 

Bill Fuller (Deering High School): Brennen Davis doesn't crack the top 75... but reports from the alternate site were glowing and in limited chances he seemed to show that he's got 5 tool upside. Eye test against a guy like Marsh or Drew Waters seem to be more where I would expect him (or higher). Im not biased, of course. What does a kid have to do?

 

Kyle Glaser: Davis is in the top 75. He's No. 72. He's a really good player, but he's also yet to play above low Class A and it's only been 50 games at that level. Marsh and Waters have shown they can translate their tools and athleticism into success against upper level pitching. Once Davis does that, it would not be a shock to see him climb into that 30-40 range where they currently reside.

[CubsWin]

Let me first note that I know very little of substance about Cubs prospects and absolutely nothing about other teams, but with all the dunking on the Cubs having only 2 top 100 guys isn't it realistically possible the Cubs end up this time next year with 6-7 guys on the list?

This is gonna be long, but I got nothing better to do, so...

 

Right now, the Cubs have 2 guys in the top 100, possibly 3 with Amaya being included on lists yet to be released. That means you'd have to add 3-4 guys to reach 6-7, AND not have any of Marquez, Davis or Amaya lose their prospect status with too much MLB playing time. In a regular year where the Cubs are going for it and won't be forced to use a lot of pitchers, the chances of Marquez pitching over 49 innings for the Cubs would be slim. He definitely has some development left to achieve, but as of now, the Cubs haven't signed any bonafide major league starters and with a weaker roster, might get off to a slow start to where they're out of it by July (especially if they trade Contreras and Bryant). If they go into the season with Hendricks, Davies, Mills, Alzolay and a competition for the 5th (and possibly 6th) spot in the rotation from the group they currently have, there's a decent chance Marquez pitches enough innings to no longer qualify as a prospect. Remember, MLB currently plans to play 162 games (I'll believe that when it's official), and veteran starters probably won't top 150 IP in 2021 due to the lack of innings they threw last year. Teams are talking about going with a 6-man rotation as a result, and we can expect more spot starts from minor league depth guys this year as well.

 

Davis and Amaya losing their prospect status is less likely, BUT the Cubs currently don't have a back-up catcher, and if they trade Contreras, they'll need to fill their hole behind the plate somehow. Amaya is already on the 40-man roster and raked during winter ball, if he continues hitting well in the minors, the Cubs may want to give him more than a cup of coffee next season. They also only have 2 major league caliber OFers and are trying to trade Bryant. Chances are the Cubs keep Happ in CF and go with a platoon of Ervin/Martini in LF. But if they trade Bryant, the same scenario might apply to Davis. He's not on the 40-man roster yet, so Davis' chances of losing his prospect status is the least likely of the three.

 

But if none of those 3 guys graduates and all are in the top 100 by 2021, we need to have 3-4 prospects really step up. My top 3 candidates to make a jump into the top 100 are RHP Kohl Franklin (21), SS Ed Howard (19) and RHP Ryan Jensen (23). If Jensen's nascent change up proves to be at least an average pitch this summer, his chances of remaining a starter improve, which he will have to do because relievers rarely, if ever, make a top 100 list. On top of that, he's got to be dominant in High-A ball while having never pitched above short-season Low-A ball and with just 12 professional innings under his belt. That's a lot of development for him to sneak into the back end of a top 100 list. Howard will have to hit well (his defense isn't in question) to make the list. With the glut of SS at the complex level (Hernandez, Preciado and Made), Howard may be playing at Low-A Myrtle Beach at some point this season. He'll have to hit the ground running when he does. Questions still remain about his bat in a lot of scouts/experts minds. He'll need to answer them convincingly (like .275/.340/.410) to make the top 100. If he plays the full season down in Mesa, he'll have to hit even better. Kohl Franklin is the safest bet for me, but he's still got to perform well at the High-A level after only having pitched 3 innings in Low-A, but I think he's got a good shot to do that.

 

After those three, it's possible that 17-year-olds SS Reggie Preciado and SS Cristian Hernandez could make the leap if they hit for average and power this season in Mesa rookie ball. The same goes for a strong group of 18-year-olds, CF Ismael Mena, RF Owen Caissie, C Ronnier Quintero and SS Kevin Made. Each will have to have big years at the plate (around a .900 OPS or better) in order to get a chance at the 75-100 range on lists. OF Cole Roederer, who is now 21, would have to have a major breakthrough campaign at the plate just to be considered. There are questions about his ability to stick in CF, so the bat really has to shine. Even more of a dark horse is 2B Chase Strumpf. He is not strong defensively, but his bat has breakout potential. It would have to be a decisive breakout campaign like Roederer's, but reports were glowing about him during instructs last fall. An even slimmer possibility is 3B prospect Christopher Morel. He has the athleticism to hit for power and play a strong defensively at the hot corner, but he's still pretty raw with his approach at the plate. A lot of development would have to happen and happen quickly for him to make it. And then there's my personal favorite, super-deep sleeper is OF Yohendrick Pinango. Having played mostly LF, he has to show he can play CF and have a big year at the plate. None of those guys have top of the 1st round type pedigree so they're going to have to prove it on the field. There's 10 guys there, so the chances of one of them having a breakout season isn't terrible.

 

If I'm a betting man, which I'm not, I'm gonna bet that 1 of Marquez, Amaya and Davis will lose their prospect status this year, most likely Marquez. If the Cubs acquire 1 or 2 veteran starters later this off season, the chances of that go down, but as of now, they aren't willing/able to spend $3-4 million on a guy like Lester. If Marquez is pitching well, the Cubs will need his innings in Chicago, not Iowa or Tennessee. That leaves us at 2 top 100 prospects as a starting point in this scenario.

 

Let's say Franklin and Howard, but not Jensen, make the list. That's 4. Now we'd need 2-3 guys from that last group to have huge breakout years. That's unlikely. I'd call it a big success if the Cubs had 5 prospects on the top 100 list next season. A lot of things would have to go just right for them to reach 6-7.

 

One wildcard factor could help, though. With most teams trying to recoup money they lost last year, many will be playing their prospects more than usual this season, so there may be more graduations than normal. With so much of the Cubs upside players 20 and under (including previously unnamed guys like RHP Richard Gallardo, SS Yeison Santana, RHP DJ Herz, SS Luis Verdugo), that won't be a problem for the Cubs.

[d_money]

If Wilson or Bryant are traded, let’s hope it will net 1-2 more players to add to the 100. I know that’s asking a lot these days.

[CubsWin]

If Wilson or Bryant are traded, let’s hope it will net 1-2 more players to add to the 100. I know that’s asking a lot these days.

You might get one in exchange for Willson, but if one of the guys they might potentially get back for Bryant in this environment would likely take a couple of years to maaaaybe get good enough to make a top 100 list.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/64061/2021-prospects-the-top-101/

 

I don’t have a BP subscription but looking around Twitter, it looks like Davis, Amaya, Márquez and Howard all made their top 101.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/64061/2021-prospects-the-top-101/

 

I don’t have a BP subscription but looking around Twitter, it looks like Davis, Amaya, Márquez and Howard all made their top 101.

 

63. Márquez

78. Davis

88. Howard

89. Amaya

[craig]

Yeah, in some years past I used to view 2B as a place with LOTS of really good hitters. Not so many now, it seems. Would be super fun to develop a guy there who could really hit.

[Bertz]

Keith Law has Davis at 51 and Marquez at 72 on his Top 100. Nothing too surprising said about either. And I think he's always been the low man on Amaya so not shocked to see him miss out. Felt like there were a lot more draft picks on this list than in a normal year, so I was kinda surprised at no Howard.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline Top 100:

 

Brailyn Márquez - 60

Brennen Davis - 61

Miguel Amaya - 89

[CaliforniaRaisin]

You don't think Edward Cabrera should be a top 100 prospect? Wow.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law has Davis at 51 and Marquez at 72 on his Top 100. Nothing too surprising said about either. And I think he's always been the low man on Amaya so not shocked to see him miss out. Felt like there were a lot more draft picks on this list than in a normal year, so I was kinda surprised at no Howard.

 

Amaya made the Next 10. If we assume the list is in order, Amaya would rank 106th.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA released their full top 30 Cubs list today, which rolls in the prospects from the Yu Darvish trade.

 

1. Brailyn Márquez

2. Brennen Davis

3. Miguel Amaya

4. Ed Howard

5. Adbert Alzolay

6. Kohl Franklin

7. Ryan Jensen

8. Christopher Morel

9. Chase Strumpf

10. Reggie Preciado

11. Riley Thompson

12. Cory Abbott

13. Burl Carraway

14. Cole Roederer

15. Ismael Mena

16. Yeison Santana

17. Luis Verdugo

18. Chris Clarke

19. Michael McAvene

20. Kevin Made

21. Owen Caissie

22. Justin Steele

23. Alfonso Rivas

24. Jordan Nwogu

25. Yohendrick Piñango

26. Tyson Miller

27. Keegan Thompson

28. Ronnier Quintero

29. Jack Patterson

30. Manuel Rodríguez

 

These write-ups went to publishing before Jan 15th so no IFAs such as Cristian Hernández were eligible.

[Bertz]

I think that top 30 is the deepest from a talent standpoint I've seen the Cubs have. Obviously it doesn't have the top end talent of 7-8 years ago. And 3/4s of these guys haven't even touched High A, so that's not to say the system is amazing. But man, like 25 of those 30 guys have legitimate first division potential. There will be lots of attrition given the ages, but that's some real horsefeathering talent.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I think that top 30 is the deepest from a talent standpoint I've seen the Cubs have. Obviously it doesn't have the top end talent of 7-8 years ago. And 3/4s of these guys haven't even touched High A, so that's not to say the system is amazing. But man, like 25 of those 30 guys have legitimate first division potential. There will be lots of attrition given the ages, but that's some real horsefeathering talent.

 

And that's with Hearn and Gallardo not making their top 30 and Hernández missing the list due to timing.

[CubsWin]

I think that top 30 is the deepest from a talent standpoint I've seen the Cubs have. Obviously it doesn't have the top end talent of 7-8 years ago. And 3/4s of these guys haven't even touched High A, so that's not to say the system is amazing. But man, like 25 of those 30 guys have legitimate first division potential. There will be lots of attrition given the ages, but that's some real horsefeathering talent.

 

And that's with Hearn and Gallardo not making their top 30 and Hernández missing the list due to timing.

Yep.

 

The Cubs have been restocking at a pretty good clip since the 2018 draft (when they overhauled their draft strategy) adding Hoerner, Davis, Roederer, Franklin, R. Thompson and Jack Patterson who make up 6 of BA's top 30. They also drafted Andy Weber, Cam Sanders and Ethan Roberts who all have outside chances of playing in the bigs eventually. That's 9 guys who have a decent to great chance of being major league contributors, one of which has already made it (though still has some developing to do in Hoerner). The only 2018 IFA signing to make the list is Pinango, but Gallardo and R. Morel have a good shot of being added soon.

 

The 2019 draft has the top 4 picks making the list (Jensen, Strumpf, McAvene and Clarke) with Hearn, Herz, Schlaffer and Bigge as strong possibilities of joining the top 30 at some point down the line. Two IFAs from that year made the list (Quintero and Made).

 

And of course, the first 3 2020 picks Howard, Carraway and Nwogu are all on BA's top 30 with 4th and 5th rounders L. Little and Moreno possessing the upside to make it in the future. 2020-21 IFA signee Cristian Hernandez is sure to make their next list.

 

All in all, half of the top 30 were drafted or IFA signed since 2018 not including Hoerner who graduated already. Five more were acquired in trade in 2020. Only 10 were in the organization prior to 2018. That's some overhaul since the new draft philosophy. 17 of the 30 are 21 or younger and 6 are teenagers.

 

But the real story is the depth beyond the top 30 as Raisin alluded to. Hernandez, Gallardo, R. Morel, Hearn, Herz, Schlaffer, L. Little, Moreno, Ballesteros and Altuve all possess upside. All but Hearn and Herz are teenagers (and both of them are 20).

 

Hopefully, guys like Miller, K. Thompson, Steele, Rivas, Rodriguez, Abbott and maybe even Marquez will join Alzolay in graduating off the list this season or be replaced by the upside youth listed above as some of them prove worthy. I can foresee the Cubs having the benefit of adding some talent to their major league roster from their system while still greatly improving the system's ranking if players develop as expected.